The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Arian]

If you could carry out air strikes with impunity why would you bother with plausible deniability? Israel and the US can do that to Syria in its weakened state, but they most certainly can't do this in Iran.

That's a very strange way of thinking.
Why would you pay 10 dollars for something that you can get for free? Same logic applies here. Why would a country risk economic and human loss when they can achieve what they want with no cost?

 

[Menschmaschine]

That's a very strange way of thinking.
Why would you pay 10 dollars for something that you can get for free? Same logic applies here. Why would a country risk economic and human loss when they can achieve what they want with no cost?

I am quite sure that organising the sabotage action - if there was one - was more effort than simply ordering an air strike. Please, now you are simply arguing for the sake of arguing. The original question was whether it is likely that the US/I would dare an air strike on Iranian nuclear installations - and the answer is a firm no, mainly because, as you concede, Iran has the means to painfully retaliate.

 

[Arian]

I am quite sure that organising the sabotage action - if there was one - was more effort than simply ordering an air strike. Please, now you are simply arguing for the sake of arguing. The original question was whether it is likely that the US/I would dare an air strike on Iranian nuclear installations - and the answer is a firm no, mainly because, as you concede, Iran has the means to painfully retaliate.

The answer is that it is a likely scenario. If they come to the conclusion that it is absolutely necessary for preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, they might consider it and because Iran has not established deterrence, they might underestimate Iran. As of now, Iran has been complying with the JCPOA to a very good extent and such an action has never been necessary.
And no, organizing a sabotage action by bypassing all layers of security is as difficult as organizing an air strike in the presence of a multi-layered defense network. You can't say it's less or more effort without knowing the details.

 

[aryobarzan]

Bro, to imagine that the US and zionist regimes against their will are going to allow their Turkish, Egyptian, Saudi and Emirati clients not to say vassals acquire nuclear weapons would frankly be out of touch.

Notice the manner in which the user suggesting this concludes his follow-on post to your comment: with a jab directed at the IRGC. That might be the purpose of these comments, which often contradict each other by supporting opposite points of view, as sharp observers may have noticed (in the past, I provided some concrete examples along with screenshots). The main commonality between these comments however is their shared tendency to portray the IR in its entirety as corrupt, incompetent, etc.

The user will resort to cognitive and discursive constructs in order to blacken the image of the IR as a whole and portray it in a constantly negative light.

The IRGC and "risk averse"... Labelling any organization or group willing to challenge the zionist entity and its American lackeys as "risk averse" is akin to a joke.

To my dear friend SalarHaqq..be assured my eyes are open with regards who is real and who is behind the scene "agent provocateur"... (I am sure you have read the "protocol of elders of zion" so you know what I mean). He is real and he is an angry, young,smart, non- conforming, patriotic Iranian in my book... just look at his flags. You once named a few and I agree with you on all.
As for the IRGC... they are the most protective and most competent of any organizations in Iran but one has to be able to criticize them without being retributed..

 

[Philosopher]

Nuclear deal won’t be renegotiated, US must respect UN Resolution endorsing accord, Zarif tells Rome forum​

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reasserts Iran’s position that its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers is not open to renegotiation and that the US has to observe the agreement and the UN resolution that endorses it.

"The deal “will never be renegotiated, period,” Zarif said on Thursday, addressing the 6th edition of the Rome Mediterranean Dialogues 2020."

Nuclear deal won’t be renegotiated, US must respect UN Resolution endorsing accord, Zarif tells Rome forum

Zarif reasserts Iran’s position that its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers is not open to renegotiation.

www.presstv.com

Click on the link to see the interview.

 

[WudangMaster]

Some things I keep wondering about is assuming if everyone returns to pre 2018 status quo:

1) What will become of the Khondab calandria? Was a replacement ever created for heavy water use? Is there one provided or available for light water? Is there any calandria at all?
There was a ceremony placing the lid and upper biologic shield a few months ago, implying something should be down there under it. Assuming it's for heavy water, will there another concrete pour? Is it possible that nothing of substance was done by Sallehi other than placing some equipment and a lid and overhead cranes and therefore it will not be any hindrance for jcpoa?

2) How will FATF fit into all of this and Iran's ability to facilitate transactions? Will there be a waiver for the time being or will it become a stubborn block from day one?

 

[SalarHaqq]

Great description and analysis of the US regime's plan for Iran during the Biden presidency, with special focus on the JCPOA, by Dr. Azadgan:

_____


Also, once again, the last 30 minutes of ostad Rae'fipour's latest video, focusing on the future of the JCPOA, are mandatory viewing (you will not regret):

 

[Sineva]

Some things I keep wondering about is assuming if everyone returns to pre 2018 status quo:

1) What will become of the Khondab calandria? Was a replacement ever created for heavy water use? Is there one provided or available for light water? Is there any calandria at all?
There was a ceremony placing the lid and upper biologic shield a few months ago, implying something should be down there under it. Assuming it's for heavy water, will there another concrete pour? Is it possible that nothing of substance was done by Sallehi other than placing some equipment and a lid and overhead cranes and therefore it will not be any hindrance for jcpoa?

2) How will FATF fit into all of this and Iran's ability to facilitate transactions? Will there be a waiver for the time being or will it become a stubborn block from day one?

"Some things I keep wondering about is assuming if everyone returns to pre 2018 status quo:"

In all honesty I really dont think theres much chance of that happening,at least if one is inclined to take the us and its eurovassals at their word.

"1) What will become of the Khondab calandria?"

If you mean the original,well in a truly astounding piece of stupidity it was filled with concrete with only a promise,worthless as it turned out,of a new redesigned smaller replacement using enriched fuel.

" Was a replacement ever created for heavy water use? Is there one provided or available for light water?"

No and No.
Theres very little information as to whether work on designing a new smaller enriched fuel replacement core ever even got underway,its quite possible that this was intended to be just like the space program ie just left to rot as another freebee to rouhanis bffs in the west.Ironically the chump regime in an act of unbelievable stupidity cancelled the waiver for the chinese firm that was supposed to provide some assistance with the redesign,this provided iran with the perfect excuse to revert to the original larger natural uranium fueled core especially since it had been revealed that iran supposedly had imported enough materiel for a second calandria,but sadly nothing has been done since then,at least that we know of.....

"Is there any calandria at all?"

NO.
Salehi claimed that work had been carried out on the second cooling circuit,but then this clown also claimed back at the end of 2019 that the reactor would be operational by march 2021[LOL!!].I think its painfully obvious that little to no work has been carried out there for the last several years ie since the beginning of the implementation of the jcpoa basically.......

2)"How will FATF fit into all of this and Iran's ability to facilitate transactions? Will there be a waiver for the time being or will it become a stubborn block from day one?"

Something tells me that in the [unlikely?] event that the jcpoa is somehow salvaged,then I certainly dont see the us or its eurovassals allowing something like the fatf to put it all at risk again,because at this point this really will be the very last chance for the jpoa,never mind the possibility of any future deals........So I suspect that iran would be quietly returned to the grey list under some face saving pretext.
Still with all that being said,one should never underestimate the stupid self destructive tendencies of the west.......and sadly I say this as a westerner.

 

[WudangMaster]

I have the feeling that the pit is empty and the upper lid is more to cover it up (no pun intended) than anything else. One could argue that everything in the facility is ready for some core of some kind, when one is available.

 

[RΛIDEN]

I have the feeling that the pit is empty and the upper lid is more to cover it up (no pun intended) than anything else. One could argue that everything in the facility is ready for some core of some kind, when one is available.

Question is brother, the facility has been there for so many years, why do we see very little activity/progress and why do we see a core not available yet?

 

[WudangMaster]

Question is brother, the facility has been there for so many years, why do we see very little activity/progress and why do we see a core not available yet?

The original was destroyed per the deal and the other core Salehi talked about later on probably is not real. There is a picture floating around, but that could be of the original and not the alleged new one. It's hard to know now because the upper lids have been placed over the pit so there might be something there or nothing at all and the lid could be a face saving measure? There is enough invested in the facility already that something productive has to be done with it, even if with a light water core.

 

[Shawnee]

The original was destroyed per the deal and the other core Salehi talked about later on probably is not real. There is a picture floating around, but that could be of the original and not the alleged new one. It's hard to know now because the upper lids have been placed over the pit so there might be something there or nothing at all and the lid could be a face saving measure? There is enough invested in the facility already that something productive has to be done with it, even if with a light water core.

Ask yourselves why the enrichment process goes ahead so slow? Why the reactor building process is so slow.
It is not technical.

 

[Shawnee]

Lloyd Austin will lead pentagon as the first black leader. He used to direct CENT COM.

Very interesting article from 2015 about his thoughts and what they expected from a deal with Iran.

US commander: Iran’s behavior hasn’t changed since nuclear deal

Army Gen. Lloyd Austin said he has not seen “any indication” of Iran changing course.

thehill.com

1. They wanted a different regional behavior. Looks like they were told it will happen.
2. They were worried about Iranian relationship with Russia especially in Syria.
3. They continue to be concerned about the missiles. They think the missiles overmatch the region.

 

[WudangMaster]

Ask yourselves why the enrichment process goes ahead so slow? Why the reactor built up is so slow.
It is not technical.

Enrichment is purely political and the Khondab calandria matter probably as well. Depends on how they got the first core. If they designed and built it on their own with materials available in house, then it's purely political.

 

[Shawnee]

Enrichment is purely political and the Khondab calandria matter probably as well. Depends on how they got the first core. If they designed and built it on their own with materials available in house, then it's purely political.

That is all I can think of too. Political cards only.