iran already is a nuclear state. that's what this whole entire nuclear fight has been about.
iran has all the internal capabilities required to build a bomb. Its sites are heavily disbersed and buried deep under impenetrable mountains. IF the political order comes, Iran will have a functioning nuke in months (if not weeks). There is no question in my mind about that.
But taking that final screw turn step has risks and rewards.
The reward is that Iranians can brag on internet forums about their nukezzzzz (as seems to be a Pakistani national pastime)
the downsides are economic warfare. sacrificing your economic well being. And making your lethal conventional missile arsenal that you have spent decades and billions developing useless against nuclear states.
Iran will not be able to mass launch conventional missiles at Israel and US bases without fear of a nuclear response. As those countries would have to assume any missile coming from iran is a nuclear missile (this is nuclear warfare 101)
The risks and rewards currently are not in favour of iran going nuclear.
the only thing that would change that equation is an actual nuclear threat. If for example Israel threatened to seriously nuke iran. Iran would immidiatly build a bomb. Which is why the Israelis really go out of their way to EMPHASIZE they will never be ones "to introduce nukes to the middle east".
another example would be Pakistan. if iran and Pakistani relations broke down, and Pakistan threatened iran in any capacity. iran would then build nukes. under those circumstances the risk/reward would be in favor of taking that final screw turn away.
the nuclear debate wasn't about preventing iran from building a bomb. iran could have built a bomb 10~ years ago if it went all out for it. the west knew this.
they wanted to take that ability from iran, and prevent it from being a nuclear threshold state. Their ABSOLUTE RED LINE was always URANIUM ENRICHMENT. the nuclear deal was a final signature of the west recognizing irans nuclear rights. recognizing iran as a nuclear state. And agreeing to trade with iran in exchange for iran not making that final screw turn for the bomb.
that is a MASSIVE change in their behaviour from having absolutely 0 tolerance about Iranian uranium enrichment for decades. Threatning iran with war or surrender.
iran has been at this state craft business for thousands of years my friend. We know what were doing.......
iran has all the internal capabilities required to build a bomb. Its sites are heavily disbersed and buried deep under impenetrable mountains. IF the political order comes, Iran will have a functioning nuke in months (if not weeks). There is no question in my mind about that.
But taking that final screw turn step has risks and rewards.
The reward is that Iranians can brag on internet forums about their nukezzzzz (as seems to be a Pakistani national pastime)
the downsides are economic warfare. sacrificing your economic well being. And making your lethal conventional missile arsenal that you have spent decades and billions developing useless against nuclear states.
Iran will not be able to mass launch conventional missiles at Israel and US bases without fear of a nuclear response. As those countries would have to assume any missile coming from iran is a nuclear missile (this is nuclear warfare 101)
The risks and rewards currently are not in favour of iran going nuclear.
the only thing that would change that equation is an actual nuclear threat. If for example Israel threatened to seriously nuke iran. Iran would immidiatly build a bomb. Which is why the Israelis really go out of their way to EMPHASIZE they will never be ones "to introduce nukes to the middle east".
another example would be Pakistan. if iran and Pakistani relations broke down, and Pakistan threatened iran in any capacity. iran would then build nukes. under those circumstances the risk/reward would be in favor of taking that final screw turn away.
the nuclear debate wasn't about preventing iran from building a bomb. iran could have built a bomb 10~ years ago if it went all out for it. the west knew this.
they wanted to take that ability from iran, and prevent it from being a nuclear threshold state. Their ABSOLUTE RED LINE was always URANIUM ENRICHMENT. the nuclear deal was a final signature of the west recognizing irans nuclear rights. recognizing iran as a nuclear state. And agreeing to trade with iran in exchange for iran not making that final screw turn for the bomb.
that is a MASSIVE change in their behaviour from having absolutely 0 tolerance about Iranian uranium enrichment for decades. Threatning iran with war or surrender.
iran has been at this state craft business for thousands of years my friend. We know what were doing.......
