What a gross over simplification of the “China way”.
What turned China around was embarce of the West. It was determined to become the leading manufacturer and cheap labor for Western goods and services. It offered its citizens as slaves to the Western Capitalism Empire and in the process made it a key component of Western economies and thus unable to be sanctioned. While having this advantage it rapidly developed its own industry thru IP theft and coercion and ToT from Western firms.
Compare this to Iran’s infamous “Neither East nor West slogan” after the Revolution and you can see why the GDP of the two countries since 1979 has been so so different.
So Iran has zero chance of adopting the China approach. As what led China to become the heartbeat of the world was dirt cheap slave labor it offered to the West.
Iran has zero leverage over Western economies, if it was 1970’s when black gold (oil) was king than maybe the story would be different. But today Iran has nothing to offer the West in order to break the sanctions regime. All it has is a nuclear program which it is slowly giving away for pennies on the dollar.
Trumps “maximum pressure” campaign showed that if the US decides to change its mind and sanction Iran than the world will follow. Who cares about symbolic victories at the UN when Iran is for all purposes cut off from the world?
Many on here cheered the Arms embargo expiring in Oct. Where are the weapons deals? It’s been 3 months not a single weapons deal announced!
You'll probably ignore this (as usual) but what's your suggestion then?
Should Iran just give in and accept what the West wants which is what Israel wants (as America is working on Israel's behalf): or should Iran continue to endure the onslaught given that at-least some of Iran's aims in the region are worth fighting for namely; (These are what I perceive to be Iran's regional aspirations, feel free to add, remove or critique).
- Pushing back against Israeli expansion (or at-least trying to).
- Championing for the wavering Palestinian people.
- Providing a counter-balance against the Gulf Arab States who support Sunni fundamentalists the region over.
- Continuing the use of nuclear energy that is legal.
- Helping oppressed people in the region fight against their oppressors.
- Making sure Lebanon doesn't fall under Israeli occupation.
- Ensuring Syria's safety and integrity (to the best of their ability).
- Increasing the National defense capacity of the Iranian nation by use of indigenous means.
- Expand the Missile production infrastructure
There is little arguing against what you said about Iranian leverage against the West. America and Europe do not rely on Iran for jack and are very rich/resourceful with or without Iran's existence or assistance in any matter. Yet Iran is still a nut they haven't (yet) cracked which is the main driving force behind the formation of the P5+1 and the implementation of the JCPOA accord.
" Many on here cheered the Arms embargo expiring in Oct. Where are the weapons deals? It’s been 3 months not a single weapons deal announced!"
-- I think It's pretty clear that Iran is not flush with cash and cannot go on even a modest weapons spending spree without incurring both heavy financial and geo-political ramifications. The lack of money alone is pretty bad, but it has still been my long standing take that countries who are now
legally allowed to buy&sell weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran will not do so out of sheer fear of
negative stigma and other secondary effects that will follow any such deals (sanctions from America are the primary concern here). Moreover, the idea of a totally demonized country (Iran) coming to your nation for jets or tanks or whatever, is really bad on a the global scene (optics) as the Americans will use that as leverage whenever and wherever they can (standard fear-mongering tactics). I should also add that neither Russia or China want to be the ones the rest of the Middle-East points fingers too when bringing up the subject of "balance of regional power". In any scenario where either country sells much needed Aerial superiority platforms to Iran (supposedly upsetting the balance of regional military power). Both their respective regional aspirations will be under jeopardy since now they've given Iran (their enemy/rival) more of a means to defend itself and attack back if necessary and other countries will be less receptive to furthering their wants (Russian or Chinese regional goals). Iran just is too much of a problem for them where prospect of selling offensive weapon systems is concerned. Iran really needs to gain access to some sort of TOT on engines and other avionic systems for its own indigenous jet program, as outright buying new platforms causes a huge geopolitical storm that I don't think Russia or China want to be involved in, just my honest take on the matter.
I guess what I'm really trying to say here is simple. Iran's national defense, more of less rests in the hands of Iranians themselves for the most part, as it always has. Criticizing the lack of signed weapons contracts with outside countries (given all the bad-blood and history) is sort of uncalled for, also let us be real here. If Iran were to sign any sort of weapons deal, they'd have to be in secret and (imo) 3 months isn't that long of time since the lifting of the Weapons embargo. Now if you were to say 3 years or more, then that concern would hold more merit here since that is a comparatively larger timeframe in which nothing was done about acquiring new weapons, thus warranting a more just scrutiny of Iranian inactivity. But 3 months is hardly enough time to hold against Iran for not getting anything into motion. For all we know Iran could be intensely negotiating with Russia or China on such acquisitions but they've haven't yet made a decision to go public with the proceedings. And they don't have to disclose it to begin with.
" Trumps “maximum pressure” campaign showed that if the US decides to change its mind and sanction Iran than the world will follow. Who cares about symbolic victories at the UN when Iran is for all purposes cut off from the world?"
-- Very important point you bring up and people really do need to understand this. Iran is far more isolated where it matters most and those who think it to be otherwise are not in the right mindset. Unfortunate as it is, this is the hand Iran has been dealt. America is a declining world power, fair enough, but that doesn't take away from Iran's lack of global outreach/influence nor America's continued (yet waning) global footprint (in multiple disciplines).
Question is simple, how does Iran plan on breaking this death-grip America unjustly imposed on it and reach out. Can it even do such a thing in the first-place? My assertion is that, no they cannot really. America's financial clout, control over SWIFT and threat of sanctions scares away many prospective buyers of anything related to Iran. This has always been a problem.
" So Iran has zero chance of adopting the China approach. As what led China to become the heartbeat of the world was dirt cheap slave labor it offered to the West."
-- 100% agreed, China's rise and Iran's current situation are not even remotely similar. I think this is attributed to a weird phenomenon in which people think that if all the sanctions currently placed were to be lifted, Iran will all of the sudden be like China in wealth, economy, military etc.... Obviously this isn't based in any sort of respectable reality and people really need to get a good grasp on what is really going on. At best when
all or most of the sanctions are lifted, living conditions, economy, and currency will be 'better' but things are still pretty bad internally due to corruption and all the other factors that contribute to a nations domestic issues (whatever they maybe). And the country just becoming 'better' will not happen in a short amount of time. You'll still need strong national and local leadership to enact changes that will positively affect the everyday lives of Iranians.
idk, lots of problems with little solutions outside of "Tough it out" (don't even know if this is possible long-term) or just
honorably capitulate.
I remember some time ago you said (in which I agreed) that Iran has no choice but to negotiate with the Americans as continuing this path will cause great harm in the future (or something to that effect).
