Russia is resuming the supply of
advanced weapon platforms to
China in a move that may have
implications for India.
At the end of last year, Russia
concluded a framework agreement
with China for the sale of four
Amur-1650 diesel submarines. In
January it signed another
intergovernmental agreement for
the supply of Russias latest Su-35
long-range fighter planes.
If the deals go through, it will be for
the first time in a decade that Russia
has delivered offensive weapons to
China.
It will also mark the first time that
Russia has supplied China with more
powerful weapon platforms
compared with Russian-built
systems India has in its arsenals. In
the past, the opposite was the rule.
For example, the Su-30MKK jet
fighters Russia sold to China were no
match for the Su-30MKIs supplied to
India at about the same time. The
Chinese planes had an inferior radar
and without the thrust vectoring
engines the Indian version had.
This time the situation looks
reversed. The Amur-1650 submarine
is far more silent and powerful than
the Kilo-class submarines the Indian
Navy has in its inventory. Indias
Su-30MKI will be no match for Chinas
Su-35 which is powered by a higher
thrust engine and boasts a more
sophisticated radar, avionics and
weapons, according to a leading
Russian military expert, Konstantin
Makienko.
Chinas acquisition of the Su-35 will
also question the wisdom of Indias
plan to buy the French Rafale, the
expert said.
The sale of Su-35s to China will
shoot down the value of the Rafale
for India, Mr. Makienko, who is
deputy head of Russias top defence
think tank, Centre for Analysis of
Strategies and Technologies, toldThe
Hindu.
The Rafale will stand no chance
against Chinas Su-35, the expert
explained. The Su-35s Irbis radar
has more than twice the detection
range of the Rafales Thales RBE2,
and will lock onto its target well
before the Russian plane becomes
visible for a retaliatory strike. The
117S engines of the Su-35 are also far
more powerful than the Rafales
Snecma M88.
The Russian Air Force is just
beginning to take delivery of the
new aircraft and China may become
the first country to import it. The
relatively small number of Su-35s
China plans to buy, 24, should not
deceive anyone, Mr. Makienko said.
China followed the same buying
pattern for the Su-27, initially
ordering 24 planes and ending up
with more than 200 Su-27s and its
licence-built version, the J-11.
The supply to China of more
advanced weapon platforms than
those available to India appears to
contradict some basic geopolitical
realities. India remains Russias most
trusted partner whose defence
requirements have never been
refused. By contrast, Russia has
always been apprehensive of the
Chinese dragon and suspicious of its
intentions towards resource-rich and
population-poor Siberia.
CALLS FOR RESTRAINT
There is consensus in the Russian
strategic community that Moscow
should exercise maximum restraint
in providing China with advanced
military technologies. Experts were
shocked to find out that Chinese
engineers had mastered the
production of clones of most
weapon systems cash-strapped
Russia supplied to China in the 1990s
and early 2000s.
Russian arms sales to China
plummeted in recent years as China
switched to domestic production,
while Moscow became more
cautious in offering Beijing cutting-
edge technologies. Not only did
China illegally copy Russian weapon
systems, but it also began to export
those undercutting Russian sales of
higher-priced original platforms.
Some experts even called for a
complete halt to arms sales to China,
arguing that demographic pressures
and a growing need of resources
may one day push China to turn
Russian weapons against Russia.
We should stop selling them the
rope to hang us with, warned
Alexander Khramchikhin of the
Institute for Political and Military
Analysis.
However, the risks of selling
advanced weapons to China took a
back seat in Moscows calculations
after Vladimir Putin returned to the
Kremlin for a third term a year ago.
Last year, Russias state arms
exporter, Rosoboronexport, signed
contracts with China worth $2.1-
billion, the companys head Anatoly
Isaikin said recently. The renewal of
sophisticated weapon supplies to
China should be seen in the context
of geopolitical games in the China-
U.S.-Russia triangle.
The balance of power between
America and China will to a large
extend depend on whether and on
which side Russia will play, said
Fyodor Lukyanov, foreign policy
analyst.
Russia and China are revitalising
defence ties at a time when their
relations with the U.S. have run into
rough waters. Moscow is deeply
disappointed with Mr. Obamas
policy of reset, which is seen in
Moscow as a U.S. instrument of
winning unilateral concessions from
Russia, while Beijing views Mr.
Obamas strategic redeployment in
the Asia-Pacific region as aimed at
containing China.
PROFIT MOTIVES
Russian defence sales to China are
also driven by profit motives as
arms manufacturers seek to
compensate for the recent loss of
several lucrative contracts in India,
where they face growing
competition from the U.S., Europe
and Israel. Also, Moscow seems to be
less concerned today about the so-
called reverse engineering of
Russian weapons in China as the
ability of the Chinese industry to
copy critical technologies appears to
have been overrated.
Chinas programme of developing
the J-11B family of aircraft based on
the Su-27 platform has run into
problems, said Vasily Kashin, expert
on China. Chinas aircraft engines,
which are essentially modified
version of Russian engines, are way
too inferior to the originals and
China continues to depend on the
supply of Russian engines.
In the past three-four years, China
has bought over 1,000 aircraft
engines from Russia and is expected
to place more orders in coming
years.
When and if China succeeds in
copying Russias new weapon
platforms the Russian industry will
hopefully move ahead with new
technologies, Mr. Kashin said.
India can also easily offset the
advantage that new Russian arms
supplies may give China, experts
said.
To retain its edge in military
aviation, India needs to speed up the
development of a 5th-generation
fighter plane with Russia and go for
in-depth upgrade of its fleet of
Su-30MKI fighters, Mr. Makienko
said.
TRADE DIFFERENCES
However, the resumption of massive
Russian arms supplies to China could
still be a cause for concern in India.
Closer defence ties between Moscow
and Beijing are an offshoot of strong
dynamics of their overall relations.
China is Russias top commercial
partner, with bilateral trade
expected to touch $90 billion this
year and soar to $200 billion by
2020. Mr. Putin has described Chinas
rise as a chance to catch the Chinese
wind in the sails of our economy.
This contrasts with sluggish trade
between India and Russia, which
stood at $11 billion last year; even
the target of $20 billion the two
governments set for 2015 falls short
on ambition. India risks being
eclipsed by China on the Russian
radar screens. As Russias top
business daily Kommersant noted
recently, even today, Russian officials
from top to bottom tend to look at
India with drowsy apathy, while
Mr. Putins visit to India last year was
long on meaningless protocol and
short on time and substance.
