The Decline of the AMERICAN EMPIRE

[Chinese-Dragon]

So are we seeing China as a new Superpower??

We need to wait for at least another 5-10 years before we even start thinking about that.

 

[VCheng]

per capita resources needed to survive is also much higher than any other country, thanks to its lack of public transportation and suburbs. The barrels of oil a Chinese or Indian living in Shanghai or Mumbai needs to get to work, eat 3 meals per day with 1000 calories per meal, live in a 100 square meter house, play in the park after work with their children, and give their children an education is a tiny fraction of the barrels of oil it costs an American, because Shanghai and Mumbai are dense, heavily urbanized, with concentrated services and industry, while the US is dispersed, its urban cores ******* and with many duplicated services and industries due to the dispersion.

Any nonbiased person who has ever lived in the US, can know this.

Of course, the per capita productivity is also much higher in the US, and it also takes less energy input overall per dollar of GDP produced. Your comparison does not hold true at a national level.

 

[wealdcn017]

We need to wait for at least another 5-10 years before we even start thinking about that.

If US can't change their ecomony, Hitler or Kaisa will come out in US. THE US will become the war centre in the world. the world should prepare it.

 

[below_freezing]

Of course, the per capita productivity is also much higher in the US, and it also takes less energy input overall per dollar of GDP produced. Your comparison does not hold true at a national level.

energy input varies in quality. China's energy is mostly measured in coal, US's is mostly measured in oil. Peak coal isn't coming, peak oil is. Also, US energy intensity is higher, and Chinese energy intensity is lower, than the official estimates due to China's service sector being 60% unaccounted for, while US has 2 trillion dollars of GDP that's not in any bank transaction, product or service.

 

[anonymus]

I agree with the main thrust of your argument. However in due course I think there may be a break up.

eg: California Independence and the Separation of States

Only way California can seperate with USA is if San andres fault opens up.

 

[TrMhMt]

USA is sick now and going to die day by day .... People wont admit it but this is the truth and we are watching it !!

 

[thinkingcap81]

Don't people think that Pakistan, India and China have a greater chance of breaking up before US does?

 

[VCheng]

energy input varies in quality. China's energy is mostly measured in coal, US's is mostly measured in oil. Peak coal isn't coming, peak oil is. Also, US energy intensity is higher, and Chinese energy intensity is lower, than the official estimates due to China's service sector being 60% unaccounted for, while US has 2 trillion dollars of GDP that's not in any bank transaction, product or service.

You do realize USA has hundreds of years' worth of high quality coal lying untapped, right? And what do you mean by "energy intensity"?

For example:

excerpt from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#World_coal_reserves

Proved recoverable coal reserves at end-2008 (million tons)

United States 108,501 98,618 30,176 237,295 22.6
Russia 49,088 97,472 10,450 157,010 14.4
China 62,200 33,700 18,600 114,500 12.6

(First column is the high grade coal, second column is the mid grade coal, third column is low grade coal, fourth column is the total and last column is percentage of total world reserves.)

 

[illuminatidinesh]

All Empires crumble one day, there are no exceptions.... But the question is when? Here many are in illusion that US going down , funny that they dont understand is when dollar goes down it is gonna take others as well.

 

[illusion8]

The US is linked to number of economies the world over, its fall will have a cascading effect, precisely the reason why others won't let it go down either.

 

[LeGenD]

Nobody can argue against the decline of America; what everybody is ignoring is the relative factor. That as other countries expand their economies, America is less powerful compared to them. It's a two way decline.

Instead of focusing on decline of US, we should focus on the condition of Pakistan. There is much greater chance of decline of Pakistan then that of US, if appropriate steps are not taken to rectify the causes of corruption now.

And remember that no human in the world can predict the course of the future with extreme clarity. It all comes down to the point of view, which is not necessarily true or can be hinged on bias.

Just see this graph:

The years 2008 and 2009 indicate the period of recent recession. Afterwards, recovery is in effect.

During the period of recession, some critics of US were painting a complete doomsday scenario for the US. However, the reality turned out to be different.

The lesson that can be learned from this is that those who try to predict the future, typically end up disappointed. Only Allah Almighty knows what will happen in the future.

What we can do is to learn from our mistakes and experience and try to adapt with changes in our surroundings. This is fundamental strategy of survival.

1. The sudden collapse of the dollar (almost inevitable),

Dollar is not collapsing. At worst, it may not remain the global currency. However, this does not means that dollar cannot remain strong or that US will be economically weak.

Case in point is China.

2. Any financial decline will have a greater impact on the military. Say I earn $500 a month. My expenses are $450 (rent, food). This leaves me $50 to buy a baseball bat, put fuel in my car and beat up on my neighbours (estabilsh world peace). Imagine my wages drop by5%, not a lot, only $25. However, I still have to pay my rent and buy my food ( health care and welfare, education etc). My 'spare' cash is less by 50%, I have to buy a smaller baseball bat.

US economy is in the recovery process. This can take several years.

The basics of economy:

The unemployment rate has also gown down from 9.1 percent to 8.5 percent during 2011 alone.

You need to understand the game of speculation. Point is that speculators want people to panic by spreading rumors of absolute hopelessness. They gain from this.

For these reasons I believe that even if American economic decline is gradual, the military decline will be far more dramatic.

Also, as cash becomes scarce, the electorate will be less supportive of foreign wars as they will see that this money is more deperately needed at home. The political support for a massive defence budget will not be there.

I see absolutely no reason for a political break-up of the US.

US military doctrine is not stagnant. It changes with passage of time.

It is possible that US may cut down the size of its military in the times of economic crises due to budget cuts. However, quality factor is not in decline. In addition, their are indications that the upcoming military technologies may significantly reduce the costs of operations.

Keep in mind that as long as US maintains a strong industry, it will continue to innovate, and will also remain a strong military power.

 

[VCheng]

^^^ J'accuse LeGenD of being a false flagger!

Change your flags IMMEDIATELY!

 

[LeGenD]

I am against speculation because it hurts economy. Unfortunately, common citizens of Pakistan have a tendency to fall for speculatory propaganda.

Regardless, you are being naughty here.

 

[VCheng]

I am against speculation because it hurts economy. Unfortunately, common citizens of Pakistan have a tendency to fall for speculatory propaganda.

Regardless, you are being naughty here.

I would submit to you Sir, that rampant speculation, grandiose delusions and persecutory paranoia seep throughout modern day Pakistani society, not just among the "common" citizenry.

I am sorry, but your posts merely make me more adamant on my accusation, unproven as it is, but I am sure that the blindly patriotic brigade will do the rest of the hatchet job for me from here onwards!

 

[Rafi]

Instead of focusing on decline of US, we should focus on the condition of Pakistan. There is much greater chance of decline of Pakistan then that of US, if appropriate steps are not taken to rectify the causes of corruption now.

And remember that no human in the world can predict the course of the future with extreme clarity. It all comes down to the point of view, which is not necessarily true or can be hinged on bias.

Just see this graph:

The years 2008 and 2009 indicate the period of recent recession. Afterwards, recovery is in effect.

During the period of recession, some critics of US were painting a complete doomsday scenario for the US. However, the reality turned out to be different.

The lesson that can be learned from this is that those who try to predict the future, typically end up disappointed. Only Allah Almighty knows what will happen in the future.

What we can do is to learn from our mistakes and experience and try to adapt with changes in our surroundings. This is fundamental strategy of survival.


Dollar is not collapsing. At worst, it may not remain the global currency. However, this does not means that dollar cannot remain strong or that US will be economically weak.

Case in point is China.


US economy is in the recovery process. This can take several years.

The basics of economy:

The unemployment rate has also gown down from 9.1 percent to 8.5 percent during 2011 alone.

You need to understand the game of speculation. Point is that speculators want people to panic by spreading rumors of absolute hopelessness. They gain from this.


US military doctrine is not stagnant. It changes with passage of time.

It is possible that US may cut down the size of its military in the times of economic crises due to budget cuts. However, quality factor is not in decline. In addition, their are indications that the upcoming military technologies may significantly reduce the costs of operations.

Keep in mind that as long as US maintains a strong industry, it will continue to innovate, and will also remain a strong military power.

A very cogent well thought out analysis - and one that I totally agree with. But there is no doubt that the US is on the decline - it can be slowed down or stopped, only if the US changes it's policies, they have been living beyond their means for a while.

Also a problem for not the US but all industrialized countries - will be - not being able to compete with developing countries - in the service and manufacturing sectors.