The Coming U.S.-India Train Wreck

[SinoChallenger]

USA has india's balls in its hands. If india refuses to go along with Iran, USA will never let india attain nuclear capability. After all, one day india will be able to make a 2500 km range MRBM, and then scale up to an ICBM to potentially attack USA. USA will never allow that. Nor will they allow india to have SLBM that can patrol around USA coast.

In the end, USA is not that stupid to trust india fully. To contain india in the subcontinent, USA just needs to bring the nuclear sanctions back and all the missile technology sanctions back. Once india is cut off from a foreign supply of weapons, its indigenous capability is actually weaker than Pakistan!

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

USA has india's balls in its hands. If india refuses to go along with Iran, USA will never let india attain nuclear capability. After all, one day india will be able to make a 2500 km range MRBM, and then scale up to an ICBM to potentially attack USA. USA will never allow that. Nor will they allow india to have SLBM that can patrol around USA coast.

In the end, USA is not that stupid to trust india fully. To contain india in the subcontinent, USA just needs to bring the nuclear sanctions back and all the missile technology sanctions back. Once india is cut off from a foreign supply of weapons, its indigenous capability is actually weaker than Pakistan!

I think you're the one who capability is weaker, my friend. Intellectual capability. You mentally challenged or what?

 

[The enlightened]

USA has india's balls in its hands. If india refuses to go along with Iran, USA will never let india attain nuclear capability. After all, one day india will be able to make a 2500 km range MRBM, and then scale up to an ICBM to potentially attack USA. USA will never allow that. Nor will they allow india to have SLBM that can patrol around USA coast.

In the end, USA is not that stupid to trust india fully. To contain india in the subcontinent, USA just needs to bring the nuclear sanctions back and all the missile technology sanctions back. Once india is cut off from a foreign supply of weapons, its indigenous capability is actually weaker than Pakistan!

Damn not you again.......

 

[The enlightened]

Double Post

 

[cyphercide]

Curious indeed,

It's a labyrinth I get overwhelmed by even if I stay true by asking "What does my India gain from all this?".Can anybody clarify as to why India doesn't seek the waiver like the rest of the clan of countries with regard to Iran or willfully head the opposition on the climate change commission where a stronger nation like China chooses to be subtle at best or decry the embargo imposed on Cuba in a venue no lesser than the UN?

Why is India raring to be the tip of the spear and instigating others to rebel against the said norms?What purpose are we pursuing to fulfill by putting ourselves on a warpath with the United States? Defies all known logic...

 

[EjazR]

The whole point of the article is that the Indian response to American demands for Iran's isolation will have an impact on American calculations of India's reliability as an ally. You guys may deny that you are an 'ally', but that's the whole deception game that India has been playing.

This thing with Iran is serious stuff that the policymakers and Pentagon really care about. This is not some people-appeasing PR stunt like climate change and carbon trading legislations.



Once again, this discussion is not about Pakistan. As you guys know, most of us decry the sellout by the Pakistani elite.



That's precisely the point! The American romance with India 'coincides' with China's rise. Lately, the Americans have come out openly about where they view India in their geopolitical agenda for Asia. It's no secret any more.

As you may know, India has never been an alliance partner of the US or joined military pacts. Even relatively harmless pacts like CISMOA and LSA have been opposed because this would "seem" like we are becoming an "ally" of the US. So it would be Indian interests that would dictate Iran policy at the end of the day. Keep in mind that we have a $120Billion trade relation with the GCC countries with expats sending back $35Billion every year from there. So apart from the US, GCC views also matter.

And yes America may "romance" India to counter China, just like it "romanced" Pakistan and China to keep India and USSR in check during the Cold war. Welcome to the real world.

 

[Developereo]

Well no one is claiming that...It is you who are hell bent on claiming that economics have no role to play....Even i said that strategic reasons are there but economic angle is there and going to stay...India is a huge market and have lot of potential to grow(in fact growing)..One has to be fool to ignore it...I even gave you examples...Look at what we signed when Obama came to India....Economics/Job creation was all over the agenda....

I am not saying economics has 'no role'. I am saying it is not the major factor because India has left the protectionist era behind and has joined the free market. As such, Indian consumers will buy what they perceive to be the best value, regardless of whether its American or what. American companies will compete on value; they do not need their government to suck up to India to get them special favors. Conversely, India will not penalize and lock out American companies because they need American consumers just as much as the reverse.

The American actions on nuclear matters, UNSC and Pacific forums have nothing to do with economy, and everything to do with geopolitics.

Well then i am not sure what we are arguing about...bcoz this is precisely all of us saying...There are much more areas where our interests converge then where they diverge...

I don't believe there will be a 'train wreck', but my point is that the US and India have very different expectations from this relationship. As this realization dawns on America, it will be interesting to see their reaction.

And yes America may "romance" India to counter China, just like it "romanced" Pakistan and China to keep India and USSR in check during the Cold war. Welcome to the real world.

What I wrote above about the expectations gap.

 

[livingdead]

^^^ It is true that geopolitics plays a big role, but all of it is not to contain china. The upswing in relation started during clinton era and successive administrations took it to higher level(till Obama came and froze it a bit).
There is a bit Indian community in US who were instrumental in bringing US closer.

I think, friendship with India, a big country with growing economy, is a attractive proposition in itself.

Similar relations of US with Israel and UK, can be better explained in ways (jewish community in US and historic ties) other than geopolitics.

 

[fallstuff]

If there is any change it will appear first in media to manufacture the consent.

The litmus test is going to be press coverage. India usually enjoys very positive coverage in the U.S MSM considering the baggage India carries. If you start to hear NE human right abuse issues, caste issues, the killings of Sikhs and Muslims in the MSM you could take it as the drum roll for a change in policy or pressure tactics.

 

[deckingraj]

I am not saying economics has 'no role'. I am saying it is not the major factor because India has left the protectionist era behind and has joined the free market. As such, Indian consumers will buy what they perceive to be the best value, regardless of whether its American or what.

India joined the free market way back in 91....US interests in India boomed way later then that....Why do you think US companies took that long to come here??? Look the world has changed and we need to change our line of thought as well...In today's world economic might is the real might...Mind it i am not disregading conventional might...but also keep in mind USSR was broken by sheer economic might without a single bullet fired in a direct conflict...

In today's strategic relations economics do play a larger role then what is ususally percieved it to be...Look at our relations with Israel....We have great relations going and yet we always vote against them in favor of Palestine...What do you think is keeping the relations in tact??? ECONOMICS, no???

Anyhow you are right when you say strategic reasons are the backbone of India-US bonhomie...The only thing you are not doing right is by keeping economics out of this strategic reasoning...

American companies will compete on value; they do not need their government to suck up to India to get them special favors. Conversely, India will not penalize and lock out American companies because they need American consumers just as much as the reverse.

Do you think American companies will do good in Iran??? welcome to the world of diplomacy...When Obama was here he went on the lengths in pushing us to give US the MMRCA deal...do you see how better relations help?? FDI in retail is another glaring example of how economic agendas are pushed when you enjoy friendly relations with regimes...

The American actions on nuclear matters, UNSC and Pacific forums have nothing to do with economy, and everything to do with geopolitics.

That's not entirely correct...also as said above in today's world economics is part of geo-politics...Do you have any clue how much American companies were supposed to make out of this civilian nuclear deal??? Unfortunately for them Indian Parliament did not pass the liability law the way they wanted... So once again you are right when you stress on geo-politics but just don't leave economics out using conventional thought...

I don't believe there will be a 'train wreck', but my point is that the US and India have very different expectations from this relationship. As this realization dawns on America, it will be interesting to see their reaction.

Well that's what relations management is all about...I don't know how you are so sure about India and US having different expectations from each other but i agree only time will tell..

 

[SinoChallenger]

If there is any change it will appear first in media to manufacture the consent.

The litmus test is going to be press coverage. India usually enjoys very positive coverage in the U.S MSM considering the baggage India carries. If you start to hear NE human right abuse issues, caste issues, the killings of Sikhs and Muslims in the MSM you could take it as the drum roll for a change in policy or pressure tactics.

Bingo! The Diplomat article "The Coming U.S.-India Train Wreck" could be followed by "US condemns communal violence against Dalits".

 

[AbhimanyuShrivastav]

Bingo! The Diplomat article "The Coming U.S.-India Train Wreck" could be followed by "US condemns communal violence against Dalits".

Communal violence and Dalits.. do not spoil the 125 IQ average of China ..

 

[Perceptron]

If there is any change it will appear first in media to manufacture the consent.

The litmus test is going to be press coverage. India usually enjoys very positive coverage in the U.S MSM considering the baggage India carries. If you start to hear NE human right abuse issues, caste issues, the killings of Sikhs and Muslims in the MSM you could take it as the drum roll for a change in policy or pressure tactics.

As if we haven't heard of them through NYT or WP or WSJ ; The last 10 years have been focused on WoT which probably might have relegated equal coverage to such issues in the background. India has always been at the crosshairs of the Western world, be it through our ex-colonialists either in the from of BBC or through the current American lot. But we chug on, resolving one issue a time (polio eradication, wealth distribution etc.)

 

[devd]

The point that the Indians miss completely is that it doesn't matter how India spins the relationship. What matters is how America perceives India's role and how it will react when expectations are not met. It doesn't even matter if America's expectations are 'reasonable'. They are what they are: that's the prerogative of being a superpower.

1. That works for Pakistan and not for India. US cry out of his *** and make the US ambassador regin with in 24 hours when India Kick the MMRCA deal. I hope u got my point.
2. US business not run out of all the country but to India in most cases. All the US tech, IT, Silicon company had R&D hub in India only outside US, Tell me how many other so far country according to you they do business. I need name and % of business please?
3. At this time i would say US need more from India rather than India. India just enjoying the healthy relation by using US.
(a) Make good ties with Japan, Aus , make UR deal with so far Aus people who denied and with in hour make it happen when Uncle sam make a phone call
(b) Getting some nice weapons
(c) Nice relation with Israel and EU

---------- Post added at 07:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 AM ----------

American companies will compete on value; they do not need their government to suck up to India to get them special favors. Conversely, India will not penalize and lock out American companies because they need American consumers just as much as the reverse.

Offcouse US need but India Dont. India is domestic market. You have no idea before putting the post here that how much pressure in the US lobby to work nicely with Indian and to be pleased with them. But for India it is just a part.

 

[deckingraj]

Offcouse US need but India Dont. India is domestic market. You have no idea before putting the post here that how much pressure in the US lobby to work nicely with Indian and to be pleased with them. But for India it is just a part.

Now this is too much of a self-praise...I wish we were even half of what you are claiming...