The Coming U.S.-India Train Wreck

[Developereo]

The point that the Indians miss completely is that it doesn't matter how India spins the relationship. What matters is how America perceives India's role and how it will react when expectations are not met. It doesn't even matter if America's expectations are 'reasonable'. They are what they are: that's the prerogative of being a superpower.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

The point that the Indians miss completely is that it doesn't matter how India spins the relationship. What matters is how America perceives India's role and how it will react when expectations are not met.

The point that you're missing is that you're inadvertently or otherwise, for reasons best known to you, trying to spin it as if in the Indo-US relationship, it's Indians all the way and the Americans are totally on the losing side.

That couldn't be further from the truth and the recent development in the Indo-US relationship PROVE IT.

 

[pmukherjee]

The Indian govt. recent attempts to liberalise retail trade in India, thereby ceding to long-time American demands, show once again that India is ready cooperate with America where it can.

Liberalising retail is in India's interests, though some politicians can't see beyond their nose. It will come one day, sooner rather than later.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Liberalising retail is in India's interests, though some politicians can't see beyond their nose. It will come one day, sooner rather than later.

Indeed it is.

However, it was one of longstanding American demands.

---------- Post added at 01:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:01 PM ----------

As for the indicators,

take the Abdus Kalam and that TSA incident for example and not to forget the recently announced US support for Indian candidacy to UNSC seat.

That says out loud how and in what manner the Americans perceive their relationship with India.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Iran is but one piece in the puzzle. Even on Iran, India says that a Nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable to India. The difference lies in the means to be employed to achieve that goal. The divergence is only partial.

From terrorism to China to WTO to climate change, there's a whole gamut of issues on which lay the Indo-US relationship. Some issues we agree upon, some we don't.

So far the positives seem to be far predominating the negatives.

It'll take a lot more than just the Iran issue to wreck the Indo-US relationship.

 

[Sadhu]

We have been Pis*ing off American politicians right upto their president for Many decades Now ......Right from 1972 war to nuclear test to Burma And vietnam friendship, Voting for palestine in UN, FDI to now Iran...

Tell me something New

 

[EjazR]

It's worse than that.

India and Israel enjoy a match made in heaven when allying against Pakistan, but the Iran factor puts strains on the India-Israel relationship also. As for the India-US relationship, it has been in the honeymoon period so far. At some point -- especially if Republicans come in power -- the US will start demanding some real payback.

But the article actually proves you wrong. The fact that India has not cut of its relations with Iran despite the combined pressure of US-GCC-Israel shows that.

And, it was India's alliance with Russia, Iran, Central Asian states like Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and even Turkey during the 1990s that provided the biggest help in trying to curtail the Pakistan/Saudi and covert US support in Afghanistan. Afterall, Pakistan has knowingly or unknowingly served the most loyal strategic piece in US/Western foreign policy of providing a foothold for them in South Asia/West Asia since the 1950s.

 

[EjazR]

The point that the Indians miss completely is that it doesn't matter how India spins the relationship. What matters is how America perceives India's role and how it will react when expectations are not met. It doesn't even matter if America's expectations are 'reasonable'. They are what they are: that's the prerogative of being a superpower.

And the point you and many Pakistanis don't realise is that US HAS been perceiving India negatively for the past 50 years. From supporting Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, to providing it the latest in weapons and aid to looking the otherside during its nuclear program, India has born the brunt of US anger. It is only post late 1990s the US became neutral and then only in the 2000s that a positive relationship developed.

So after seeing the worst the US had to offer in its hostility, what else will India have to perceive?

 

[deckingraj]

There are some glaring issues in your posts...Let me show it to you...

Let's come back to reality: http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000253735.pdf

While there is no official definition of the middle class, estimates range from 30 million to approximately 300 million people.

There are all sorts of 'projections' but in any case, the discussion is not about economics. As I mentioned, American companies do business regardless of political ties.

Economics is a very important subject especially in today's global world. India-US relationship has very much to do with economics.. Mind it there is no denying the strategic angle, however much has not been achieved in this sector as compared to economics one...Obama visit to India and the deals that surfaced during that vist is a big proof right in front of us....Indian market is huge and is definitely a market not ot be ignored...300 million is a very valid number and honestly range starting from 30 million is nonsense.

The point of the original article, and the debate here, is about the political expectations that America has from this relationship. It doesn't matter how Indians try to spin it, the fact is that India has led America on by pretending it shares American concerns and goals about the latter's geopolitical agenda.

I am not sure how did you arrive at pretend part but there is always give and take in a relationship. We are not american slaves and neither is America ours. Breaking relations with Iran has lot of impact on us. Almost 12% of oil is imported from Iran, Also since relations with Pak is not good iran is our medium to reach AF-Central Asia. How can we let go all of this??? We surely would be stupid to let that happen to us, no??? In diplomacy there is a limit to which you can push a nation especially if it is not dependent on you....secondly both US and India are going to loose more then gain by breaking relations...In short there are lot of things on which our views converge than diverge.

Sorry, when it comes to foreign policy, this song about 'free media' is strictly for the birds. The media and official policy just magically tend to be in perfect alignment most of the time. This is not just in India, but also in Western countries.

What does you media says about US-Pak relations??? What instead your govt. is doing??? Do you see how childish your argument is???

In democracies, the relationship between the government and media is complex. On the one hand, the media sets the agenda for foreign policy by controlling the public debate. On the other hand, the media is often used by the government to test out public reaction to proposed policies by 'leaking' trial balloons.

What you are saying is true to some extent but thats about it. There are enough whistle blowers who operate right in this media. FDI in retail a few weeks back is just one such example. Free and Fair media might not be true to its fullest but is also not purely nonsense.

No. My point was that American support has emboldened the Indian media to come open with their China-bashing. This sends a message to the Americans that India is on the same page as them when it comes to China.

What????? This is height buddy...why would GOI need media to tell something to American govt??? As far as China bashing goes then it is going around in circles right from the days when electronic media boomed in India...US was no where in picture at that time.....Irrespective of all that our trade with China is more than $60 billion and still growing...

Exactly. India does not share the American policy view on Iran. That is the whole point of this thread: how America will react to this policy difference.

We do not share American view on many things and not just Iran...Same is true for them...but yes how will Americans react to Iran issue would be interesting to watch...but one thing is for sure...relations with Iran is definitely very important for us and i don't see GOI can ignore it irrespective of how much it is going to piss off Uncle SAM...

 

[jha]

And the point you and many Pakistanis don't realise is that US HAS been perceiving India negatively for the past 50 years. From supporting Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, to providing it the latest in weapons and aid to looking the otherside during its nuclear program, India has born the brunt of US anger. It is only post late 1990s the US became neutral and then only in the 2000s that a positive relationship developed.

So after seeing the worst the US had to offer in its hostility, what else will India have to perceive?

This is something they dont take into account while commenting...

 

[deckingraj]

This is something they dont take into account while commenting...

But there is some logic in that as well...When US was hostile to India at that time there was a mighty counter USSR...In today's world there is no such entity....However what they fail to see is the economic strength that India has achieved over all these years...no??

 

[jha]

But there is some logic in that as well...When US was hostile to India at that time there was a mighty counter USSR...In today's world there is no such entity....However what they fail to see is the economic strength that India has achieved over all these years...no??

Ofcourse..But there are no two camps now and we can always tile our policy a bit.. Foreign policy of a country is ultimately determined by domestic constituency..And this is something which will prevent US Admin from going hostile towards India...

 

[Developereo]

But the article actually proves you wrong. The fact that India has not cut of its relations with Iran despite the combined pressure of US-GCC-Israel shows that.

The whole point of the article is that the Indian response to American demands for Iran's isolation will have an impact on American calculations of India's reliability as an ally. You guys may deny that you are an 'ally', but that's the whole deception game that India has been playing.

This thing with Iran is serious stuff that the policymakers and Pentagon really care about. This is not some people-appeasing PR stunt like climate change and carbon trading legislations.

And, it was India's alliance with Russia, Iran, Central Asian states like Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and even Turkey during the 1990s that provided the biggest help in trying to curtail the Pakistan/Saudi and covert US support in Afghanistan. Afterall, Pakistan has knowingly or unknowingly served the most loyal strategic piece in US/Western foreign policy of providing a foothold for them in South Asia/West Asia since the 1950s.

Once again, this discussion is not about Pakistan. As you guys know, most of us decry the sellout by the Pakistani elite.

And the point you and many Pakistanis don't realise is that US HAS been perceiving India negatively for the past 50 years. From supporting Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, to providing it the latest in weapons and aid to looking the otherside during its nuclear program, India has born the brunt of US anger. It is only post late 1990s the US became neutral and then only in the 2000s that a positive relationship developed.

That's precisely the point! The American romance with India 'coincides' with China's rise. Lately, the Americans have come out openly about where they view India in their geopolitical agenda for Asia. It's no secret any more.

 

[Developereo]

Economics is a very important subject especially in today's global world. India-US relationship has very much to do with economics.. Mind it there is no denying the strategic angle, however much has not been achieved in this sector as compared to economics one...Obama visit to India and the deals that surfaced during that vist is a big proof right in front of us....Indian market is huge and is definitely a market not ot be ignored...300 million is a very valid number and honestly range starting from 30 million is nonsense.

If you guys think the US supporting India's UNSC ambitions, all the American media suckup, and American sponsorship of India's inclusion in all the Pacific forums is happening just so WalMart can open a few stores around India, I don't know what to tell you.

Lately, both Obama and Clinton have been very explicit about their expectations of India's role in America's great game.

I am not sure how did you arrive at pretend part but there is always give and take in a relationship. We are not american slaves and neither is America ours. Breaking relations with Iran has lot of impact on us. Almost 12% of oil is imported from Iran, Also since relations with Pak is not good iran is our medium to reach AF-Central Asia. How can we let go all of this??? We surely would be stupid to let that happen to us, no??? In diplomacy there is a limit to which you can push a nation especially if it is not dependent on you....secondly both US and India are going to loose more then gain by breaking relations...In short there are lot of things on which our views converge than diverge.

Of course India will look out for India's interests. The point of the article, with which I agree, is that America doesn't care about India's interests. It will want to know precisely to what extent India can be relied on to support American interests in the region.

What does you media says about US-Pak relations??? What instead your govt. is doing??? Do you see how childish your argument is???

Only the most gullible believe the Pakistani democracy is anything but a feudal charade. These guys don't give a damn what anyone says, least of all the media.

What????? This is height buddy...why would GOI need media to tell something to American govt???

Because that's precisely one of the roles of a 'free' media in democratic countries, including the West. The 'free' media is used by governments to promote their propaganda through 'leaks' and other clandestine means. This is the standard game played by democracies: use the media to stoke certain policy positions so the government can just throw up its hands and say "hey, that's what the people want".

We do not share American view on many things and not just Iran...Same is true for them...but yes how will Americans react to Iran issue would be interesting to watch...but one thing is for sure...relations with Iran is definitely very important for us and i don't see GOI can ignore it irrespective of how much it is going to piss off Uncle SAM...

Like I wrote, the US will continue the courtship because the bigger target for them is China and they know that India shares their 'concern' about China's rise.

 

[deckingraj]

If you guys think the US supporting India's UNSC ambitions, all the American media suckup, and American sponsorship of India's inclusion in all the Pacific forums is happening just so WalMart can open a few stores around India, I don't know what to tell you.

Well no one is claiming that...It is you who are hell bent on claiming that economics have no role to play....Even i said that strategic reasons are there but economic angle is there and going to stay...India is a huge market and have lot of potential to grow(in fact growing)..One has to be fool to ignore it...I even gave you examples...Look at what we signed when Obama came to India....Economics/Job creation was all over the agenda....

Lately, both Obama and Clinton have been very explicit about their expectations of India's role in America's great game.

And so in India...Clinton visit to Malaysia has its seeds in India...Look we have seen in the past and even lot of examples in the present...When it comes to India's interest we do not go down easily...US understand that very well...Of-course they will love India to move left and right as per their wish but then we can wish sun and moon...we will not get it...

Of course India will look out for India's interests. The point of the article, with which I agree, is that America doesn't care about India's interests. It will want to know precisely to what extent India can be relied on to support American interests in the region.

Big deal...why would America care for India's interests at her own expense??? But why is it hard to understand that they also know that vice-versa is true as well??? Look in a relationship both parties know very well as to what extent can you push the other party...

Only the most gullible believe the Pakistani democracy is anything but a feudal charade. These guys don't give a damn what anyone says, least of all the media.

That's not the point...Point is media does not always harp what govt. wants it to...Secondly we don't have much respect for politicians on our side either...when it comes to corruption we can beat you hands down..mate!!!

Because that's precisely one of the roles of a 'free' media in democratic countries, including the West. The 'free' media is used by governments to promote their propaganda through 'leaks' and other clandestine means. This is the standard game played by democracies: use the media to stoke certain policy positions so the government can just throw up its hands and say "hey, that's what the people want".

Listen buddy why do you think strategists are so gullible??? If this is a fact and you know it then why do you think strategist of opposite camp will not know about it??? Look i am not saying these things are not exixting...but foreign policy is too complex to be driven by media....This is a fact mate!!!

Like I wrote, the US will continue the courtship because the bigger target for them is China and they know that India shares their 'concern' about China's rise.

Well then i am not sure what we are arguing about...bcoz this is precisely all of us saying...There are much more areas where our interests converge then where they diverge...