The background
Pakistan
The new US President is having a re-look at US-Pak relations. The administration believes, Pakistan can be persuaded to be neutral in the strategic Sino-US landscape. In return, Pakistan has been presented with economic incentives and future sale of defensive assets against its main rival, India. Wanting to reduce its dependence on China, Pakistan has begun initial rounds of talks with the US. Pakistan is quite clear, it will not let its territory be used against China. The Americans agree to not interfere with Pakistan's Afghan policy and turn a blind eye to Kashmir and Afghanistan. Pakistan's name is also being removed from the FATF list. The Americans have also spoken about support for TAPI and are ready to speak with India regarding the same.
The Sino Pak relationship is taking on a more realistic view from both sides on possibilities. While China does not want to intrude on Pakistan's decision making, it is wary of closer US Pak ties. The CPEC project too is not progressing at the rate Pakistan wishes, leading to quiet back room discussions with China on the same. The Chinese, too have offered Pakistan military equipment without any riders. China also depends on Pakistan to ensure that there is no extremism spread into its restive Xinjiang province. Pakistan has till date ensured this never happens.
India
The Indo US relationship has progressed to cordial ties between both countries and increase in investments in India and a stable economic environment. The American attempt at militarsing Quad has not completely succeeded. While, there has been joint military exercies to increase inter-operability, there is neither a written nor tacit understanding regarding mutual defense. This stems from the absence of clearly demarcated borders of India with Pakistan and China and the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia. Intelligence and surveillance have improved considerably between the member countries. Economic and technological co-operation in Africa, to check China, has been another success story for the Quad.
The recent move of the Americans of getting Pakistan off the FATF list and suggestions of other economic co-operation has raised eyebrows in India, though nothing is being spoken about in the open forum. The increase in joint training of Pakistani forces with the Americans has also been noted byy the Indians. The Americans from their point of view, are frustrated by the Indian stand of not making overt gestures against China, by allying with them.
Sino Indian relations continue to be tense. The border skirmishes have resulted in stalemate across the LAC. Both sides have taken up aggressive patrolling. Trade continues to grow irrespective of border problems, though Chinese imports are being substituted by Indian vendors. This has resulted in a drop in the growth rate. India continues to view the close co-operation with Pakistan as a concern area, despite Chinese assurances to the contrary.
Indo Russian relations have been steady. Russia continues to be a major defence supplier and seems to be sharing tech with India nobody else will. The sanctions imposed by the Americans have started taking effect on Russian trade. The EU has managed to diversify its energy needs, but not to the extent it wishes. Energy imports to EU though has dropped by almost 30%. NATO has expanded to include the Scandinavian countries. The energy drop in EU has been covered by China. The Russians are now dependent on China as a major trade partner. Not something, the Russians are very happy with. Indo Russian trade has not grown at the rate Russia wants, though Russia continues to be a major supplier of Indian defence hardware and technology.
Internal Political environment in Pakistan
Things are looking up for the Pakistani Govt. With the Americans wanting to restart support, the economic outlook could improve dramatically. The GoP is looking to get a few trade deals to improve exports. With the removal from FATF, investment inflows can restart in full and the energy crisis can be settled. The borders are as they have always been, nothing to worry about. The government is stable. The military has managed to bring peace to KPK. Balochistan, too, the attacks have been reduced. Sporadic incidents do occur, but nothing to worry about. With investments promised by the Americans, Pakistan will reduce dependency on Chinese investments. New infrastructure projects are being planned.
CPEC finally looks like its going to change the face of Gwadar and Karachi.
The government for now does not wish to forment trouble with India, hence, overt support for the Kashmiri cause is not publicly spoken about. The future is now looking bright.
The military is staying in its barracks. The current COAS has no interest in getting involved in politics. After the IK episode, there was a strong anti establishment wind. This is no longer the case, but the Pakistani PM has appointed a professional soldier uninterested in politics to the helm. And he seems to be doing his job well.
Strategic environment in Pakistan
Would request a Pakistani to write this.
Internal Political environment in India
The past few years have seen a stable government in India. The opposition in the last Lok Sabha elections won more seats than before, but are still unable to dent the strength of the ruling government. The economy is growing much better after the break during the covid years.
The cabinet has a new face now. There is a new NSA and Defence Minister. The new NSA is a veteran of the R&AW and the first from the RAW cadre to be appointed to the post. Born in the 1970s, he has been involved in field work from the 1990s. He is known to be a rational operative and shares a good rapport with the PM. The Defence Minister is a technocrat. He was brought in mainly to modernise the defence industry and defence forces. An intelligent person, he knows when to listen to his peers and service chiefs.
Elections are 3 years away and things seem to be on auto pilot. There is a discussion on implementing the UCC and this seems to be the hottest topic for debate across all news channels.
Strategic Environment in India
While publicy everythings seems normal, there is disquiet in the core strategic thinkers of the GoI. Kashmir, though calm has not been solved and could ignite in the future. The border issue with China still festers, with neither side moving an inch. If the Americans back the Pakistanis, it will be the cold war all over again, except China will replace the Soviet Union. And Indian strategic thinkers believe it to be detrimental to them. They believe, it will embolden the Pakistanis to restart trouble in Kashmir. A strong Pakistan, backed by both China and the Americans can prove to be a problem in the long run.
There is also a quiet belief, that a 2 front war can be stalemated only at considerable loss of lives and economic costs for India. An interesting question being asked is what if it were reduced to only a 1 front opponent in the long term. And how could it be done.
The current NSA based on his experience does not believe in the rhetoric of splitting Pakistan. With his experience and his reading of history, he also realises the futility of war in Kashmir and Punjab. He believes it made more sense to threaten the lines of trade and investment in Pakistan. One of the analysts had created a scenario of a push across the South of Pakistan. Intrigued by this, he decided to war game this scenario and was pleasantly surprised with the results. With a few tweaks, he believes this was a much better plan than trying to cross the Kashmir mountains for a start.
The current situation of Pakistan entering into a happy relationship with America is viewed as an opportunity by this contrarian view of the rationalist. But, there exists no reason to launch any offensive in the South. In fact, there exists no reason to go to war with Pakistan. There would be outrage and sanctions levied by other countries. But he anyways decides to have a word with the Defence Minister and the CDS to work out the logisitics in case, the opportunity arose. Hopefully, couple of exercises could be conducted to work through the scenario.
The Opportunity
A few days back Pakistan had captured 30 fishermen in the Sir Creek area. While India, insists the Pakistani coastal guard crossed over to Indian waters and captured them, the Pakistanis insist they were captured from Pakistani waters.
But, today it is learnt that a boat capsized with a Pakistani Coast Guard in the vicinity. 15 people are believed killed. Pakistan insists they had nothing to do with the capsizing. India insists they were innocent fishermen whose boat was sunk by the Pakistanis.
Being a slow news day, the Indian media has caught on to the story. Interviews of the families has been shown non-stop and candle light marches have been organised. Fishermen across the country are showing solidarity with the families. Peacful protests have broken out in major coastal cities. The news has been picked up by major international news channels.
The NSA understands the opportunity. Operation Magarmach seems possible now.
Operation Magarmach
a. Threaten the economic development of Pakistan.
b. Split Pakistani defence concentration in the North.
