What's new

The Burning South: India-Pakistan conflict in 2026 - A hypothetical scenario simulated. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TROLLING OR JINGOISM

Status
Not open for further replies.
If you let India mobilise and attack first, and exclude the China factor, chances of Pakistan winning a war become slim, especially as time goes on
I agree, but for radically different reasons, and in a radically different way.

If India mobilised or attacked first, and even including the Chinese factor, the chances of Pakistan winning a war are low. The chances of Pakistan achieving a stalemate are still reasonable, though not huge, because Indian generals at divisional or corps level failing to push home their advantage is a factor that every Indian strategist must sit and mourn.

In both cases - and the cases that follow - the difference is not the first mover advantage, but the fact that for the first time in nearly a century, Indian resources will be near the borders for once. They can be deployed swiftly and can address the objectives immediately, in about the same time-spans as their opponents.

The other cases are of Pakistan attacking first. I would still point to the formidable obstacles presented by the massive Indian concentrations at several points south of Poonch: the first, around Akhnoor - Jammu - Udhampur - Samba, the second around Pathankot, the third (defensive in nature) around Amritsar, extending forward to Firozpur, rearwards to Beas, and the fourth around Moga, representing the front-facing I Corps that was used to leading a sleepy existence at Ambala, and the last, the fifth, around Bathinda. Thanks to these, any Pakistani attack is likely to be met by a dual move against its flanks, from the concentrations that will inevitably be left on the sides. There is one exception, to this general rule.

Thus, an attack in the Shakargarh bulge may be met head-on from the Jammu cluster, and attacked in flank from Pathankot.

An attack in the Batala-Hoshiarpur axis is vulnerable to the intervention of the Pathankot knot, as well as a movement from Moga to the nor-nor-east, through Jalandhar towards Hoshiarpur, without disturbing the defensive knot around Amritsar.

Attacking from Kasur invites a riposte from Moga; trying to achieve strategic depth further south runs the risk of joint defensive action by Bathinda and Moga.

I believe the several scenarios will fail to work for Pakistan because for the first time, the numerical superiority of Indian resources will be available near the points of action.

It is obviously no pressing matter to confide in anyone else the one perceived exception.:enjoy:

Any credible evidence that Pakistan was the "first mover?"...............:azn:
You don't understand evidence. That has proven beyond dispute a long time ago. When presented with documentary evidence, there was a melt-down of embarrassing proportions.

Please do not use words that you do not understand, and please do not enter arguments that you understand even less. :azn:

I think, this can discussed in another thread.
Not needed. The poor fellow lacks elementary comprehension skills.

There will be a line runnin from Bhuj to Marwar. It should be up in 6-7 months.

Also, will put down the beginning of the action by tonigght andd share.
Are you referring to a railway line?

Shouldn't both sides disclose their political and strategic objectives. This would make easier for either side?
Precisely why these should NOT be revealed!!!
 
@JX-1 - even though CMO could do the whole theater I was thinking we start with the south since Ive done the north in a few different contexts before.
This is, at the moment, a given, I believe; the year-long civil engineering and infrastructural work, and, even more so, the specific formation movements are very specifically designed to create certain psychological positions in the minds of those observing them, and to handle a situation that is not the long-term situation.
 
The background

Pakistan
The new US President is having a re-look at US-Pak relations. The administration believes, Pakistan can be persuaded to be neutral in the strategic Sino-US landscape. In return, Pakistan has been presented with economic incentives and future sale of defensive assets against its main rival, India. Wanting to reduce its dependence on China, Pakistan has begun initial rounds of talks with the US. Pakistan is quite clear, it will not let its territory be used against China. The Americans agree to not interfere with Pakistan's Afghan policy and turn a blind eye to Kashmir and Afghanistan. Pakistan's name is also being removed from the FATF list. The Americans have also spoken about support for TAPI and are ready to speak with India regarding the same.

The Sino Pak relationship is taking on a more realistic view from both sides on possibilities. While China does not want to intrude on Pakistan's decision making, it is wary of closer US Pak ties. The CPEC project too is not progressing at the rate Pakistan wishes, leading to quiet back room discussions with China on the same. The Chinese, too have offered Pakistan military equipment without any riders. China also depends on Pakistan to ensure that there is no extremism spread into its restive Xinjiang province. Pakistan has till date ensured this never happens.

India
The Indo US relationship has progressed to cordial ties between both countries and increase in investments in India and a stable economic environment. The American attempt at militarsing Quad has not completely succeeded. While, there has been joint military exercies to increase inter-operability, there is neither a written nor tacit understanding regarding mutual defense. This stems from the absence of clearly demarcated borders of India with Pakistan and China and the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia. Intelligence and surveillance have improved considerably between the member countries. Economic and technological co-operation in Africa, to check China, has been another success story for the Quad.

The recent move of the Americans of getting Pakistan off the FATF list and suggestions of other economic co-operation has raised eyebrows in India, though nothing is being spoken about in the open forum. The increase in joint training of Pakistani forces with the Americans has also been noted byy the Indians. The Americans from their point of view, are frustrated by the Indian stand of not making overt gestures against China, by allying with them.

Sino Indian relations continue to be tense. The border skirmishes have resulted in stalemate across the LAC. Both sides have taken up aggressive patrolling. Trade continues to grow irrespective of border problems, though Chinese imports are being substituted by Indian vendors. This has resulted in a drop in the growth rate. India continues to view the close co-operation with Pakistan as a concern area, despite Chinese assurances to the contrary.

Indo Russian relations have been steady. Russia continues to be a major defence supplier and seems to be sharing tech with India nobody else will. The sanctions imposed by the Americans have started taking effect on Russian trade. The EU has managed to diversify its energy needs, but not to the extent it wishes. Energy imports to EU though has dropped by almost 30%. NATO has expanded to include the Scandinavian countries. The energy drop in EU has been covered by China. The Russians are now dependent on China as a major trade partner. Not something, the Russians are very happy with. Indo Russian trade has not grown at the rate Russia wants, though Russia continues to be a major supplier of Indian defence hardware and technology.

Internal Political environment in Pakistan
Things are looking up for the Pakistani Govt. With the Americans wanting to restart support, the economic outlook could improve dramatically. The GoP is looking to get a few trade deals to improve exports. With the removal from FATF, investment inflows can restart in full and the energy crisis can be settled. The borders are as they have always been, nothing to worry about. The government is stable. The military has managed to bring peace to KPK. Balochistan, too, the attacks have been reduced. Sporadic incidents do occur, but nothing to worry about. With investments promised by the Americans, Pakistan will reduce dependency on Chinese investments. New infrastructure projects are being planned.

CPEC finally looks like its going to change the face of Gwadar and Karachi.

The government for now does not wish to forment trouble with India, hence, overt support for the Kashmiri cause is not publicly spoken about. The future is now looking bright.

The military is staying in its barracks. The current COAS has no interest in getting involved in politics. After the IK episode, there was a strong anti establishment wind. This is no longer the case, but the Pakistani PM has appointed a professional soldier uninterested in politics to the helm. And he seems to be doing his job well.

Strategic environment in Pakistan
Would request a Pakistani to write this.


Internal Political environment in India
The past few years have seen a stable government in India. The opposition in the last Lok Sabha elections won more seats than before, but are still unable to dent the strength of the ruling government. The economy is growing much better after the break during the covid years.

The cabinet has a new face now. There is a new NSA and Defence Minister. The new NSA is a veteran of the R&AW and the first from the RAW cadre to be appointed to the post. Born in the 1970s, he has been involved in field work from the 1990s. He is known to be a rational operative and shares a good rapport with the PM. The Defence Minister is a technocrat. He was brought in mainly to modernise the defence industry and defence forces. An intelligent person, he knows when to listen to his peers and service chiefs.

Elections are 3 years away and things seem to be on auto pilot. There is a discussion on implementing the UCC and this seems to be the hottest topic for debate across all news channels.

Strategic Environment in India
While publicy everythings seems normal, there is disquiet in the core strategic thinkers of the GoI. Kashmir, though calm has not been solved and could ignite in the future. The border issue with China still festers, with neither side moving an inch. If the Americans back the Pakistanis, it will be the cold war all over again, except China will replace the Soviet Union. And Indian strategic thinkers believe it to be detrimental to them. They believe, it will embolden the Pakistanis to restart trouble in Kashmir. A strong Pakistan, backed by both China and the Americans can prove to be a problem in the long run.

There is also a quiet belief, that a 2 front war can be stalemated only at considerable loss of lives and economic costs for India. An interesting question being asked is what if it were reduced to only a 1 front opponent in the long term. And how could it be done.

The current NSA based on his experience does not believe in the rhetoric of splitting Pakistan. With his experience and his reading of history, he also realises the futility of war in Kashmir and Punjab. He believes it made more sense to threaten the lines of trade and investment in Pakistan. One of the analysts had created a scenario of a push across the South of Pakistan. Intrigued by this, he decided to war game this scenario and was pleasantly surprised with the results. With a few tweaks, he believes this was a much better plan than trying to cross the Kashmir mountains for a start.

The current situation of Pakistan entering into a happy relationship with America is viewed as an opportunity by this contrarian view of the rationalist. But, there exists no reason to launch any offensive in the South. In fact, there exists no reason to go to war with Pakistan. There would be outrage and sanctions levied by other countries. But he anyways decides to have a word with the Defence Minister and the CDS to work out the logisitics in case, the opportunity arose. Hopefully, couple of exercises could be conducted to work through the scenario.


The Opportunity
A few days back Pakistan had captured 30 fishermen in the Sir Creek area. While India, insists the Pakistani coastal guard crossed over to Indian waters and captured them, the Pakistanis insist they were captured from Pakistani waters.

But, today it is learnt that a boat capsized with a Pakistani Coast Guard in the vicinity. 15 people are believed killed. Pakistan insists they had nothing to do with the capsizing. India insists they were innocent fishermen whose boat was sunk by the Pakistanis.

Being a slow news day, the Indian media has caught on to the story. Interviews of the families has been shown non-stop and candle light marches have been organised. Fishermen across the country are showing solidarity with the families. Peacful protests have broken out in major coastal cities. The news has been picked up by major international news channels.

The NSA understands the opportunity. Operation Magarmach seems possible now.


Operation Magarmach
a. Threaten the economic development of Pakistan.
b. Split Pakistani defence concentration in the North.
I will happily go with this strategic summary. I hope that the intelligence reports submitted, purporting to be from an observation from the Pakistani side, may be retained; they are critical to my plans. Regarding the actual movements, I should like clarity, so that in the middle of a complicated manoeuvre, we do not have a contrary series of instructions. Are you running that part, or should I? If the latter, I should like an opportunity to brief you on the entire thinking behind what has been done, to garner your inputs, and also to request you to take specific roles.
 
I don't see it quite that way. On three occasions, Pakistan has been first mover; all three ended in a kind of stalemate, to be kind, although the first mover not meeting his stated objectives and having to concede serious encounters leads to another kind of conclusion in another unkind set of analysts.
In 1965 Pakistan was making good progress in Kashmir, until India opened a new front, where India gained the upper hand and Pakistan was forced into a defensive position. In 1971 West Pakistan launched op. Chengiz Khan, and if it was not a half assed air campaign using WWII dud bombs, or if it bothered to follow up with the proposed IV/II corps offensive into Punjab and did not make stupid blunders like not getting CAS from PAF, maybe the result of the war would be different in the west. Chamb could've been a greater success if PA wasn't so timid.

In 1999 Pakistan again made good progress in Kargil by attacking first. India outnumbered and outnumbered Pakistan heavily but it was extremely difficult to dislodge the NLI. Mush even crossed the LoC for the night.

A decade before this India took the initiative and seized Siachen.

In 2019 India bombed Pakistan and Pakistan couldn't stop them. Then Pakistan bombed India and India couldn't stop them. Then a few weeks ago India launched a missile 140km into Pakistan and nothing stopped it. A Pakistani MRBM would not be stopped by any Indian system either.

But this is all for a different thread. I'm sure this has been discussed to death before anyway.
 
And remember - we may be these mostly
wings-of-war-table.jpg

But can imagine this

July-5-War-Game.jpg


Just remember you ARENT them and cannot understand all that they do - it’s their J O B.

I’ll repeat, you will not be payed for this or even get a cookie. And if your side loses or things don’t play out as you WANT, no money will be deducted from your account, no girl will reject you because of it and no one will question your manliness due to it.


ALL PAKISTANI MEMBERS WHO WANT TO BE PART OF THE PAKISTANI “WAR ROOM” PLEASE LET ME KNOW BY midnight 4/13 PST

I always wanted to do something like this.

Please let me join.
 
inspite of recent conflicts in which armor has not proven decisive, i see the same old armour thrusts, etc being propagated here.
I would like to see some use of weaponised drones being incorporated in the conflict.
Pakistan would enjoy a edge with its 2 chums Turkey and China at the forefront in drone use.
 
yea i am in. though not an expert in this. Learning experience. How do I share my inputs?
I'm trying to form a WhatsApp group so that we can coordinate. There are as of now five of us, four confirmed. That's @Jackdaws, @meghdut, you and I, and, when he confirms, @MilSpec .

We can also use an old Google Group list that I have, if you good people are agreeable.

This OK for now?
 
inspite of recent conflicts in which armor has not proven decisive, i see the same old armour thrusts, etc being propagated here.
I would like to see some use of weaponised drones being incorporated in the conflict.
Pakistan would enjoy a edge with its 2 chums Turkey and China at the forefront in drone use.
There you go, sitting on the sidelines, kibitzing! :mad:

inspite of recent conflicts in which armor has not proven decisive, i see the same old armour thrusts, etc being propagated here.
I would like to see some use of weaponised drones being incorporated in the conflict.
Pakistan would enjoy a edge with its 2 chums Turkey and China at the forefront in drone use.
You have a point.

I'm trying to form a WhatsApp group so that we can coordinate. There are as of now five of us, four confirmed. That's @Jackdaws, @meghdut, you and I, and, when he confirms, @MilSpec .

We can also use an old Google Group list that I have, if you good people are agreeable.

This OK for now?
Those of us who have an accessible e-mail id, like, for instance, mine joe.shearer.2015@gmail.com, can get into this Google Groups immediately, by this afternoon, after I get back home.

Creating jackdaws@gmail.com, meghdut@gmail.com, longbowman4@gmail.com suryakiran@gmail.com and Milspec@gmail.com is not exactly rocket science.
 
Last edited:
i am a mech engineer in a private company with no knowledge of military matters.
Ask me to fabricate a small bridge with channels and i beams and i can help , but all these keeras on maps is beyond me.
Bhai, hamare mein kaun Field Marshal baithe hue hain?

Bhai, hamare mein kaun Field Marshal baithe hue hain?
Shaamil ho jaiye, saare engineering dekh lijiye. Tab uske bare aur kisiko sar nahin phorna nahin padega.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom