Thar coal project achieves $2bn financial close after govt guarantee

[VCheng]

engro.. house of habib, liberty etc are not small names in pakistan.. they would not invest in this project if there was nothing in there for them. you can coax one group into this project but close to 6 big names is impossible...

Of course. There is lots of money to be made in making such deals of dubious integrity. What could be more Pakistani?

 

[Arsalan]

Of course. There is lots of money to be made in making such deals of dubious integrity. What could be more Pakistani?

What could be more human!

 

[All-Green]

As far as i have learnt from various sources, the underground gasification is not feasible from power generation perspective. The quality and quantity of gas resulting from underground coal ignition is extremely variable, therefore no company or bank is able to create and vet a viable technical/commercial plan.

In light of above, the only current alternative to use this coal in any manner is to mine it.
The intricacies of all the parameters contributing to the business case of Thar coal mining (and power generation) are of course not known to us in detail, however this is a proven technique employed all over the world and there are many references/expertise available to work out a comprehensive technical plan and build a business case which can be vetted by experts.
If the more reputable private sector companies are comfortable with the business case and loans are being granted by local and foreign banks then they must have done some due diligence.
Perhaps we should not immediately shoot down this project in its entirety as a wastage of time and resources?

Besides the huge job creation potential and the extensive in-house expertise gained, there is an additional strategic benefit as well.
We shall have a significant long term power source which is independent of import uncertainties and any unforeseen price inflation.

 

[niaz]

I have tried to find out the situation regarding Dr Samar Mubarkmand's project thru my own sources. To the best of my knowledge, the real reason is not quality of gas.

Underground gasification is a new & untried technology with no large scale commercial power plant in operation anywhere in the world. Therefore no foreign bank or investor is willing to risk capital in Mubarakmand's project.

On the other hand; Oil import bill having gone down by 50% has eliminated the urgency and funds are required for the Metro & Orange trains; therefore Ishaq Dar has no funds for the additional work either. Hence the project is effectively in limbo.

 

[VCheng]

What could be more human!

Yes, but the Pakistani form of this art takes to new heights illegal private gains at great cost to the national exchequer, the present project being just another case in point of a long line of examples.

Underground gasification is a new & untried technology with no large scale commercial power plant in operation anywhere in the world.

Sir, UCG is an old technology with many plants around the world:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_coal_gasification

http://cornerstonemag.net/update-on-the-50-mwe-theunissen-underground-coal-gasification-project/

The problem is not with the technology, it is with the basic energy source, or rather, its poor quality.

 

[All-Green]

I have tried to find out the situation regarding Dr Samar Mubarkmand's project thru my own sources. To the best of my knowledge, the real reason is not quality of gas.

Underground gasification is a new & untried technology with no large scale commercial power plant in operation anywhere in the world. Therefore no foreign bank or investor is willing to risk capital in Mubarakmand's project.

On the other hand; Oil import bill having gone down by 50% has eliminated the urgency and funds are required for the Metro & Orange trains; therefore Ishaq Dar has no funds for the additional work either. Hence the project is effectively in limbo.

Aoa Sir.

Indeed it is a technology hardly used for large scale commercial power except in few cases where luckily all the parameters of the underground deposits and terrain led to a reasonable and sustained output.

It is not the quality strictly speaking.
It is the highly "variable" nature of the produced gas parameters including quantity, quality, impurities etc. which resulted from the pilot.
This is why the current pilot did not translate into something meaningful.
The various characteristic of deposits did not produce something cosistent enough to take it forward commercially.
You cannot design a powerplant without a certain quality and quantity assumption regarding its fuel which is not predictable due to the inherent nature of this technique in being an uncontrolled one compared to conventional technologies.
The efficiency is not there at all and no real solution was provided by scientists as to addressing this dilemna.

There are many variables which dictate whether gasification can translate into a meaningful quantum of power at an affordable rate.
Globally, extremely few successful examples exist other than small scale pilots.

 

[niaz]

Yes, but the Pakistani form of this art takes to new heights illegal private gains at great cost to the national exchequer, the present project being just another case in point of a long line of examples.



Sir, UCG is an old technology with many plants around the world:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_coal_gasification

http://cornerstonemag.net/update-on-the-50-mwe-theunissen-underground-coal-gasification-project/

The problem is not with the technology, it is with the basic energy source, or rather, its poor quality.

Hon Syed Ali Haider,

Thanks but I have already come across the above references. However, since Syngas is not directly related to my work which deals with more conventional projects such as refining, LNG manufacture etc., I admit that my knowledge about UCG is limited to what literature is available on the net.

I am told that prevailing view in Islamabad is that despite 50 years of trials and pilot projects; no commercial scale power plant (say of about 500 MW) is operating anywhere in the world. Powers at Islamabad are therefore not willing to allocate additional funds to the UCG project.

 

[VCheng]

Hon Syed Ali Haider,

Thanks but I have already come across the above references. However, since Syngas is not directly related to my work which deals with more conventional projects such as refining, LNG manufacture etc., I admit that my knowledge about UCG is limited to what literature is available on the net.

I am told that prevailing view in Islamabad is that despite 50 years of trials and pilot projects; no commercial scale power plant (say of about 500 MW) is operating anywhere in the world. Powers at Islamabad are therefore not willing to allocate additional funds to the UCG project.

Sir, the Soviet Union ran many large-scale UCG power plants in the 60s, and their use declined only due its breakup and the discovery of large oil and gas deposits in Siberia:

https://www.purdue.edu/discoverypark/energy/assets/pdfs/cctr/UCG-IEC_Res_2009.pdf

The Yerostigaz plant in Uzbekistan is still operating commercially:

http://yerostigaz.com/about-us/

http://www.lincenergy.com/acquisitions_yerostigaz.php

Back to the present topic, I wish the project every success, but the long term success remains in doubt due to the basic disadvantages inherent to Thar coal, and due to other competing sources available as choices to Pakistan. The lessons from Pakistan Steel also apply here tangentially. Trying to make an industry work in the face of global competition is a tough game indeed.

 

[Arsalan]

Yes, but the Pakistani form of this art takes to new heights illegal private gains at great cost to the national exchequer, the present project being just another case in point of a long line of examples.



Sir, UCG is an old technology with many plants around the world:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_coal_gasification

http://cornerstonemag.net/update-on-the-50-mwe-theunissen-underground-coal-gasification-project/

The problem is not with the technology, it is with the basic energy source, or rather, its poor quality.

Not essentially, once just need to search about global scams and dirty politicians and the list of there crimes to see where we stand. It is still no way near the top, let alone taking it to new heights. While we are accused of being corrupt and our scandals like "memogate" are used to identify us, one should remember where that "-gate" came from!!

Living in a delusional world and thinking that everything is mahan in my Pakistan is stupid, it only as stupid as blaming the country and its people for everything they do or that happens or thinking that all is lost!!

 

[VCheng]

Not essentially, once just need to search about global scams and dirty politicians and the list of there crimes to see where we stand. It is still no way near the top, let alone taking it to new heights. While we are accused of being corrupt and our scandals like "memogate" are used to identify us, one should remember where that "-gate" came from!!

Living in a delusional world and thinking that everything is mahan in my Pakistan is stupid, it only as stupid as blaming the country and its people for everything they do or that happens or thinking that all is lost!!

Yes Sir, aap ney baja irshaad kiya hey, but it still does nothing to improve the quality of Thar coal. As mentioned above, it has a lot of water in it, but what is less well known is the amount of dirt and rocks mixed in. Water can be evaporated out, but getting such non-combustible debris out is not easy.

 

[Mrc]

Engro pakistan are no amateurs....

If they are doing a project i am sure they know a bit more than keyboard warriirs about coal quality

 

[Vyom]

Yes Sir, aap ney baja irshaad kiya hey, but it still does nothing to improve the quality of Thar coal. As mentioned above, it has a lot of water in it, but what is less well known is the amount of dirt and rocks mixed in. Water can be evaporated out, but getting such non-combustible debris out is not easy.

You need a different technology (CFBC) to burn such coal, High Moisture content can be gotten rid of, but high Moisture and High ash together is a issue. But that will cost a bit much, upside is you can burn pretty much anything combustible to generate power. Łagisza 460 MWe Super Critical CFB plant may serve the purpose.

 

[VCheng]

You need a different technology (CFBC) to burn such coal, High Moisture content can be gotten rid of, but high Moisture and High ash together is a issue. But that will cost a bit much, upside is you can burn pretty much anything combustible to generate power. Łagisza 460 MWe Super Critical CFB plant may serve the purpose.

Such challenges are indeed solvable, but they add to the cost of the power generated. That becomes a problem when other sources are cheaper. What happened with the IPP saga in Pakistan? Do we want a repeat of that fiasco?

 

[Mrc]

Such challenges are indeed solvable, but they add to the cost of the power generated. That becomes a problem when other sources are cheaper. What happened with the IPP saga in Pakistan? Do we want a repeat of that fiasco?

Ipp saga was.created by ppp....which like its founder is corrupt to its core....so it was bound to fail....magar bhutto abhi bhi zinda hay... he survived ipp failure

 

[Vyom]

Such challenges are indeed solvable, but they add to the cost of the power generated. That becomes a problem when other sources are cheaper. What happened with the IPP saga in Pakistan? Do we want a repeat of that fiasco?

For cheaper coal, I would say it would be better to import from Indonesia, South Africa, and Australia. in that order. (I am presuming other sources of coal than energy, coal is by far the cheapest today), and I had made the last comment without reading the data on Thar coal, from whatever is available online, It made me scream, ( Moisture 48.57 percent, Volatile matter 29% , fixed carbon content is less than 22%, and heating value (GCV) is 1523.8 Kcal/kg, and 2,000 million tons recoverable reserves, USAID study of 1994 and other news resources) I would strictly advise to run the numbers again. At 48% moisture (half of it is essentially water!)

In the odd 8 or 10 power plants I have been in India any thing above 30% makes the pant so inefficient that its better not to run it at all, and even at the worst possible scenario you need coal above with heating value (GCV) 2000-1800 kCal/Kg @ 12-14% moisture.

The mining is unattractive too the heat content is too low, water availability in Thar is a big issue, etc. If you ask me, of my odd decade of experience in power sector, India and abroad. Import that damned coal, it not worth the mining.