A lot to consider. A.M. highlighted Pakistani concerns, affronts and abridgements as seen by Carlotta Gall's contacts. He didn't highlight U.S. thoughts that Ms. Gall had also conveyed.
My thoughts- The arrest was important, without question. Baradar wasn't in Karachi on R&R, IMV. He works very hard, is sufficiently young, and has immense responsibilities. He is the financial conduit that sustains Taliban military operations. As such he receives money from a variety of sources and, in turn, dispenses that money. Thus his awareness of those networks is profound.
Dispensing funds goes hand-in-hand with operational requirements. He not only has bankrolled military operations but designs or shapes their strategic objectives before funding them. Thus Baradar has intimate awareness of the taliban's operational networks and key players down to a fairly deep level. He likely knows the names of low-level commanders whom he hasn't personally met so his reach is immense on both of the aforementioned fronts.
I don't know the status or objectives of negotiations from any perspective other than that available in open sources. As of four-six months ago, there was much speculation that the taliban were achieving an overwhelming military victory. Afghan elections had been a farce partially because of the inability to meaningfully penetrate into the southern Pashtun regions and draw large numbers of Pashtuns into the political process. Military operations were seen as stultified by the inability to raise forth adequate troops and police from the Afghan side.
Omar had repeatedly held that he wouldn't negotiate until ISAF forces had withdrawn from the region-at least from what little I'd read. I am only aware of efforts made in the KSA to see what possibilities existed to peel away Hekmatyar from that position. I understand that there is a member of Karzai's cabinet that is from the political wing of Hezb-i-islami, Hekmatyar's political party but I don't know the success of those talks. Jalaluddin Haqqani seems enfeebled from my readings and has largely turned over effective control of their network to his son Sirajuddin.
America has indicated that we see little gain to be made by attempting negotiations that lack good faith by the senior taliban leadership. The difference between RECONCILIATION and REINTEGRATION. Are people talking? Of course. How deeply and meaningfully is the key and it seems from all of those whom are willing to allude to such that many have their hands in the stew without improving, necessarily, the recipe. Like so much else, there are self-serving motives at play from simply feeding egos to posturing political end-goals and all that's in-between from the comments made by various officials.
To sum up negotiations, does anybody really know who is talking to whom and at what level of authority? I'm certain that nobody here does.
Baradar's capture puts paid the allegations long made. Whether under the thumb of the ISI or not, the Afghan insurgency is almost certainly directed from within Pakistan. That's more important for the future of this war than the past and must be viewed as water under the bridge. Where matters proceed from here is more important.
Baradar is charismatic. Whether he was thrown under the bus by hard-line elements of the afghan insurgency or even the ISI is speculative. His capture isn't the same as Dadullah's killing in 2007. The insurgency has evolved dramatically since then and his role has been paramount. Burning Baradar by whomever will considerably weaken the insurgency unless he was already well on his way out if for no other reason than he purportedly holds the keys to the bank vault. Without that having been transferred to others, those networks will have to be re-established and that takes time. Burning Baradar would also alienate a goodly portion of military commanders in the field whom owe Baradar their fealty.
We don't know enough. The permutations here are near endless. So too the future possibilities. Let's discuss those-
For true peace to occur, there must be a grand strategic reconciliation. I believe that any trust deficit existing between America and Pakistan, however pronounced and written upon, is superceded by the trust deficit existing between Afghanistan, India and Pakistan.
The optimal objective is regionally earthshaking- a stabilized and INDEPENDANT Afghanistan with equally friendly relations existing with both India and Pakistan as well as CAR and Iran. A resolution of both the Durand line parallel with Kashmir that affords secure boundaries for all three nations seems critical to such. Achieving such requires the effective integration of Pashtun political aspirations while raising the standards of governance and diminishing corruption inside Afghanistan along with productive bi-lateral discussions on Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
There are strong non-governmental and unreconcilable forces opposed to such who will make every effort to derail either process. I have no road-map nor time-line to achieving either as we're so early in either game. Baradar may hold the key and this arrest certainly says SOMETHING about how Pakistan views matters-at least with respect to Afghanistan. It couldn't have happened without Pakistan's assistance and cooperation at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. They unquestionably had the lead on the tactical end and, quite possibly, all three levels.
I speculated last night that Kiyani holds the key here. There have been too many high level meetings with key American, NATO, and P.A. corps commanders of late to ignore that
SOMETHING profound was in the works. Equally, America has been busy on other fronts as well-most notably India. I don't know the specifics of discussions between our officials and Singh but there are evidently new talks occurring regarding Kashmir.
I don't know much about Abdul Ghani Baradar except for the NEWSWEEK backgrounder but it indicates a thoughtful, careful, approachable man of some considerable intellect. He is old-school but seemingly with a very approachable and personal touch in his command relationships. Part of me wants to think he engineered his own bust but I'm disinclined to go THAT FAR...yet. He has perishable operational and tactical intelligence among a host of valuable insights but his value goes so far beyond those defined limits as to boggle my mind.
This is going to be really, really interesting in the weeks ahead. Sorry for the length but it's a deep and far-reaching bag of kittens to corral.
Thanks.