Taliban dropped India from its thank you list. Delhi should face new Afghanistan realities

[Chakar The Great]

One should not let Indians claim such absurdities as highlighted in red above: The ‘defeat’ of the US in Afghanistan, on the other hand, is the finest hour of Pakistan’s statecraft. Never in history a nation has plotted and actively abetted the ‘defeat’ of a super power and yet continued to enjoy its goodwill.

This is nonsense. Pakistan always told the Americans what it was looking for. It did not hide, its intention was not to undermine the US (things happened along the way the same way Pakistan's interests were harmed and 70,000 Pakistanis died in a war that was not of our making). Pakistan supported the US and its interests even to the point of harming its own interests along the way. Clearly this is a case of TINSTAAFL. Pakistan paid through its nose and I hope now both the US and Pakistan can move on while maintaining amicable relations.

I have to agree with above.

 

[Thamizh Puli]

Punishment ?= for what?... you do know who were majority of the 9-11 terrorists?...


our role?..... really ..I thought it was hatched in Hamberg?

so basically you lied .. you didnt go there to nation build, help the world to get rid of terrorism?... Is there any thing the Quran that isnt true about you lot?

/QUOTE]

did you already forget about Al Qaeda, Osama bin laden etc? that was all Af-Pak which is why Borabora, Bush-Musharaf phone calls, drone bombs, Abbottabad et all happened. stop blabbering

 

[cloud4000]

Besides this just happened.

Malaysia aims to resolve palm oil spat with India within month's time

Its time Pakistanis learn about real politics. Its only matter of time Taliban turn against Pakistan and PDF would be cursing India-Taliban nexus.

It helps to have Mahatir out of the way. The man is anti-Indian.

 

[The Eagle]

No wonder, India was excluded from Taliban chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar’s “thank you” list, which included Pakistan (special mention), China, Iran and Russia.

Well, India has been feeding the puppet in Kabul called Ghani for India's own ambitions and had no interest in peace otherwise, would have disconnected the malicious activities or payments to the NDS. Even US didn't invite India to the talks at all.... deserved the sidelines to watch it happening. India shouldn't be gambling on Ghani or Karzai in grudge of Pakistan... that was a weak choice and wrong move hence, the understood results.

 

[Thamizh Puli]

somebody asked why India spends a billion for influence in Afghanistan.
The purpose is to H E L P Afghanistan - that's why India's spending is around infrastructure such libraries/parliament building etc - not funding negative activities such as its neighbor.

 

[truthfollower]

@war&peace @Pan-Islamic-Pakistan @PAKISTANFOREVER @BHarwana @ghazi52 @OsmanAli98 @Zibago @N.Siddiqui @Clutch @Windjammer @Mangus Ortus Novem @khansaheeb @GumNaam @Imran Khan @truthfollower @Mentee

Your take on the above.

Sorry! I don't have anything to say.

 

[achhu]

Afghanistan has been the graveyard of empires for centuries and of two super powers in the last 40 years — the USSR, from 24 December 1979 to 15 February 1989; and the US, from 7 October 2001 to 29 February 2020.

India, despite being the second-biggest donor of foreign aid to Afghanistan and receiving adequate notice, merely watched the negotiations and signing of the US-Taliban peace deal from the sidelines and made no change in its approach towards the Taliban. No wonder, India was excluded from Taliban chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar’s “thank you” list, which included Pakistan (special mention), China, Iran and Russia.

The ‘defeat’ of the US in Afghanistan, on the other hand, is the finest hour of Pakistan’s statecraft. Never in history a nation has plotted and actively abetted the ‘defeat’ of a super power and yet continued to enjoy its goodwill.

India with its economic clout and soft power can still be a major player in Afghanistan. But for that to happen, India will have to come to terms with the new reality and engage with the Taliban. Realpolitik is not about absolutism, but involves adaptation to promote national interests.

Afghan-born US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Mullah Baradar signed The Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan on 29 February, 2020, at Sheraton Hotel in Doha. The negotiations followed a chequered course which was less to do with “hard bargaining” by the US and more due to the Taliban displaying its clout with terrorist attacks against US troops, Afghan Armed Forces and civilians.

Shorn of diplomatic finesse, the “peace agreement” is nothing more than a face-saving exit for the US from its longest war. Afghanistan has been left to its fate like Vietnam was 47 years ago.

Also read: Afghanistan is not Vietnam. US should know that walking away won’t be that easy

The agreement
The four-page agreement has been signed between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognised as a state by the US, and the United States of America. The Afghan government is not a party to the agreement. In fact, it is not even recognised by the Taliban. The future of Afghanistan will be decided by the intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and “Afghan sides” beginning 10 March 2020. A separate Joint Declaration between the Afghan government and the US was issued in Kabul. This declaration contains the gist of the US-Taliban agreement and makes a commitment for a political settlement through intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and an inclusive negotiating team of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (the government), and a permanent comprehensive ceasefire.

The Doha agreement broadly involves the withdrawal of US forces in a phased manner, removal of international sanctions on the Taliban, release of prisoners from both sides and Taliban’s commitment to reduce violence.

As part of the agreement, Taliban will not allow groups like Al-Qaeda to use Afghanistan to threaten the security of the US and its allies. But the agreement is silent on anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Also read: US-Afghan peace deal relies on old flaws, dated assumptions. Taliban of 2020 has changed

Future of Afghanistan
The fact that within 48 hours of the peace agreement and the joint declaration, President Ashraf Ghani said that the release of prisoners was not a promise the US could make and the Taliban resumed its operations against Afghan forces after just seven days of the pre-agreement “reduction in violence” promise, gives an indication of the complexities that will determine this future. On 4 March, the US carried out an

Post US exit, the Pashtun-dominated Taliban backed by Pakistan will be the most potent force and its return to power is ordained. The future of Afghanistan will be decided by the avatar in which it emerges to rule Afghanistan.

In the aftermath of the deal, two extreme possibilities can emerge in Afghanistan. The worst-case scenario is the Taliban going back to its pre-9/11 ways. The best-case scenario is a Taliban-led multi-ethnic coalition government on the Iranian political model with its moderation managed by leverage of international aid without which Afghanistan cannot survive and Pakistan’s influence. This will also be contingent on the leverage the international community can exercise over Pakistan.

Also read: India took the high moral ground by not talking to Taliban and lost influence in Afghanistan

The way forward for India
Realpolitik demand that India should prepare for both the best and the worst-case scenarios. Plan A should be based on the best-case scenario. Post 9/11, India has exercised considerable strategic influence and enjoys phenomenal goodwill among the people of Afghanistan. New Delhi has pumped in about $3 billion in developmental projects. A large number of Afghan military officers have also been trained in India.

New Delhi must shed its inhibitions to support the agreement, engage with the Taliban, and become part of the peace process to get the best for the people of Afghanistan.

As its principal sponsor, Pakistan has considerable influence over the Taliban. But India has what Pakistan does not have — the economic clout to assist Afghanistan. Economic aid never fails to produce influence. Our aid must not only continue but increase with firm commitments over the next 10 years. For India, $1 billion a year is a small price to pay for establishing its influence in Afghanistan.

We must also actively participate in India-China-Afghanistan trilateral economic projects as agreed upon at Wuhan in 2018. For this, we must prevail upon China to influence Pakistan to open trade and transit routes to Afghanistan. To this end, we must recommence our engagement with Pakistan with focus on economic cooperation and transit routes. This will also allay Pakistan’s fears of our influence in Afghanistan.

I foresee the deployment of a peacekeeping force under the UN or the Shanghai Cooperation Council. We must not miss the opportunity to be an active participant in Afghanistan.

Also read: India has invested too much in Afghanistan to let Taliban hold sway again with US blessings

To prepare for the worst-case scenario, we must engage with the non-Taliban ethnic coalition as and when it is formed and assist it economically and militarily through Tajikistan.

Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.

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if taliban keep on old ways , they will feel the heat in the same old day fashion .

 

[Cherub786]

Taliban have dashed to pieces all of India's grand plans for Afghanistan. Both India and the Kabul regime are extremely frustrated that Trump made peace with Taliban

 

[FuturePAF]

Taliban have dashed to pieces all of India's grand plans for Afghanistan. Both India and the Kabul regime are extremely frustrated that Trump made peace with Taliban

The Kabul regime was probably hoping Biden would win tonight, so they could pull out enough support from him to delay the pullout.

If Trump does win, he will go forward and complete the withdrawal, especially after the Taliban literally endorsed him for the presidency. A gutsy move, but they haven’t survived this long without knowing a thing or two about politics.

The Taliban are also smart enough to maintain the momentum of the negotiations and try to win international legitimacy.

 

[Cherub786]

The Kabul regime was probably hoping Biden would win tonight, so they could pull out enough support from him to delay the pullout.

If Trump does win, he will go forward and complete the withdrawal, especially after the Taliban literally endorsed him for the presidency. A gutsy move, but they haven’t survived this long without knowing a thing or two about politics.

The Taliban are also smart enough to maintain the momentum of the negotiations and try to win international legitimacy.

I don't think Biden is so stupid to reverse a major American foreign policy victory in Afghanistan. The withdrawal is hugely popular at home.

 

[khansaheeb]

Afghanistan has been the graveyard of empires for centuries and of two super powers in the last 40 years — the USSR, from 24 December 1979 to 15 February 1989; and the US, from 7 October 2001 to 29 February 2020.

India, despite being the second-biggest donor of foreign aid to Afghanistan and receiving adequate notice, merely watched the negotiations and signing of the US-Taliban peace deal from the sidelines and made no change in its approach towards the Taliban. No wonder, India was excluded from Taliban chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar’s “thank you” list, which included Pakistan (special mention), China, Iran and Russia.

The ‘defeat’ of the US in Afghanistan, on the other hand, is the finest hour of Pakistan’s statecraft. Never in history a nation has plotted and actively abetted the ‘defeat’ of a super power and yet continued to enjoy its goodwill.

India with its economic clout and soft power can still be a major player in Afghanistan. But for that to happen, India will have to come to terms with the new reality and engage with the Taliban. Realpolitik is not about absolutism, but involves adaptation to promote national interests.

Afghan-born US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Mullah Baradar signed The Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan on 29 February, 2020, at Sheraton Hotel in Doha. The negotiations followed a chequered course which was less to do with “hard bargaining” by the US and more due to the Taliban displaying its clout with terrorist attacks against US troops, Afghan Armed Forces and civilians.

Shorn of diplomatic finesse, the “peace agreement” is nothing more than a face-saving exit for the US from its longest war. Afghanistan has been left to its fate like Vietnam was 47 years ago.

Also read: Afghanistan is not Vietnam. US should know that walking away won’t be that easy

The agreement
The four-page agreement has been signed between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognised as a state by the US, and the United States of America. The Afghan government is not a party to the agreement. In fact, it is not even recognised by the Taliban. The future of Afghanistan will be decided by the intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and “Afghan sides” beginning 10 March 2020. A separate Joint Declaration between the Afghan government and the US was issued in Kabul. This declaration contains the gist of the US-Taliban agreement and makes a commitment for a political settlement through intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and an inclusive negotiating team of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (the government), and a permanent comprehensive ceasefire.

The Doha agreement broadly involves the withdrawal of US forces in a phased manner, removal of international sanctions on the Taliban, release of prisoners from both sides and Taliban’s commitment to reduce violence.

As part of the agreement, Taliban will not allow groups like Al-Qaeda to use Afghanistan to threaten the security of the US and its allies. But the agreement is silent on anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Also read: US-Afghan peace deal relies on old flaws, dated assumptions. Taliban of 2020 has changed

Future of Afghanistan
The fact that within 48 hours of the peace agreement and the joint declaration, President Ashraf Ghani said that the release of prisoners was not a promise the US could make and the Taliban resumed its operations against Afghan forces after just seven days of the pre-agreement “reduction in violence” promise, gives an indication of the complexities that will determine this future. On 4 March, the US carried out an

Post US exit, the Pashtun-dominated Taliban backed by Pakistan will be the most potent force and its return to power is ordained. The future of Afghanistan will be decided by the avatar in which it emerges to rule Afghanistan.

In the aftermath of the deal, two extreme possibilities can emerge in Afghanistan. The worst-case scenario is the Taliban going back to its pre-9/11 ways. The best-case scenario is a Taliban-led multi-ethnic coalition government on the Iranian political model with its moderation managed by leverage of international aid without which Afghanistan cannot survive and Pakistan’s influence. This will also be contingent on the leverage the international community can exercise over Pakistan.

Also read: India took the high moral ground by not talking to Taliban and lost influence in Afghanistan

The way forward for India
Realpolitik demand that India should prepare for both the best and the worst-case scenarios. Plan A should be based on the best-case scenario. Post 9/11, India has exercised considerable strategic influence and enjoys phenomenal goodwill among the people of Afghanistan. New Delhi has pumped in about $3 billion in developmental projects. A large number of Afghan military officers have also been trained in India.

New Delhi must shed its inhibitions to support the agreement, engage with the Taliban, and become part of the peace process to get the best for the people of Afghanistan.

As its principal sponsor, Pakistan has considerable influence over the Taliban. But India has what Pakistan does not have — the economic clout to assist Afghanistan. Economic aid never fails to produce influence. Our aid must not only continue but increase with firm commitments over the next 10 years. For India, $1 billion a year is a small price to pay for establishing its influence in Afghanistan.

We must also actively participate in India-China-Afghanistan trilateral economic projects as agreed upon at Wuhan in 2018. For this, we must prevail upon China to influence Pakistan to open trade and transit routes to Afghanistan. To this end, we must recommence our engagement with Pakistan with focus on economic cooperation and transit routes. This will also allay Pakistan’s fears of our influence in Afghanistan.

I foresee the deployment of a peacekeeping force under the UN or the Shanghai Cooperation Council. We must not miss the opportunity to be an active participant in Afghanistan.

Also read: India has invested too much in Afghanistan to let Taliban hold sway again with US blessings

To prepare for the worst-case scenario, we must engage with the non-Taliban ethnic coalition as and when it is formed and assist it economically and militarily through Tajikistan.

Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.

ThePrint is now on Telegram. For the best reports & opinion on politics, governance and more, subscribe to ThePrint on Telegram.

Defeat of the US is a defeat for Pakistan, we gave all the support we could but the mission failed. This is a nonsensical statement:- " The ‘defeat’ of the US in Afghanistan, on the other hand, is the finest hour of Pakistan’s statecraft. Never in history a nation has plotted and actively abetted the ‘defeat’ of a super power and yet continued to enjoy its goodwill. "

India has given up on Afghan ambitions its time for Pakistan to accept the new reality and plan accordingly

No thanks , Afghans can sort out their own mess.

 

[HalfMoon]

Defeat of the US is a defeat for Pakistan, we gave all the support we could but the mission failed. This is a nonsensical statement:- " The ‘defeat’ of the US in Afghanistan, on the other hand, is the finest hour of Pakistan’s statecraft. Never in history a nation has plotted and actively abetted the ‘defeat’ of a super power and yet continued to enjoy its goodwill. "

First we destroyed the USSR and now the USA.

Next stop India.

Inshallah! kashmir banega pakistan

 

[khansaheeb]

First we destroyed the USSR and now the USA.

Next stop India.

Inshallah! kashmir banega pakistan

Inshallah.

 

[Trango Towers]

Unlike Pakistan which has always sought destruction and chaos in Afghanistan, India's been the one to make an attempt to build bridges, literally and metaphorically. Good deeds never goes to waste..

Yes...and you belive that cow packs can protect your from radiation

 

[LeGenD]

First we destroyed the USSR and now the USA.

Absolutely distorted view of developments.

USSR was up against Pakistan + USA + KSA with foreign volunteers pouring in to help so-called Mujahideen who received technologies to defeat Soviet armor and helicopters on the ground. USSR was also in a terrible economic situation at the time and experiencing Perestroika on top. All of these factors combined and worked against USSR with Perestroika proving most costly because it motivated some Soviet Socialist Republics to break away eventually.

Russia - Perestroika, Glasnost, Reforms | Britannica

Russia - Perestroika, Glasnost, Reforms: When Brezhnev died in 1982, most elite groups understood that the Soviet economy was in trouble. Due to senility, Brezhnev had not been in effective control of the country during his last few years, and Kosygin had died in 1980. The Politburo was...

www.britannica.com

Was the Soviet Union’s Collapse Inevitable? | HISTORY

Some blame Mikhail Gorbachev for the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the economy and political structure were already in deep decay.

www.history.com

Communism itself FAILED in the nutshell.

Afghanistan turned out to be the least costly war to USA in terms of men and materials in a long time. They succeeded in dismantling the organization which they wanted to (Al-Qaeda Network), and they have managed to keep Afghan Taliban at bay all these years.

COVID-19 did far more damage to USA in a span of months than multiple wars in years.

WE should be rather thankful to Allah Almighty for helping Pakistan in these trying times instead.

Pakistan still have to worry about thousands of hostile militants lurking in Afghanistan and FATF Grey List. Secondly, if Biden wins, WE do not know how things will pan out in Afghanistan. WE should be humble in our judgement and pray to Allah Almighty for a better future.

USA will bounce back from COVID-19 crisis as well.