Take Tajikistan, but give Afghanistan to India: Ghani’s proposal to Pakistan can change the ...

[nForce]

Chahbahar port and highway to Afghanistan through Iran is ONLY for Indian exports to Afghanistan. Rest of the Afghan trade is through Pakistan. But Afghanistan needs Chahbahar as an alternative to Karachi. Both Iran and Afghanistan are milking India to develop Chahbahar and the highway to Afghanistan and the Indians have no choice. So win-win for all three countries.

India has been trying to gain a foothold in this region for many years.Almost all of these endeavours have been of economic nature.
There was this Irano-Hind Shipping Company, the Chabahar port, pipeline talks, the trade with Iran. Some of the Indian automobile companies have presence in Iran as well.
And this Chabahar port, it was planned long time back, with first phase of development started in the early 90s if I'm not mistaken, right after the demise of Soviet Union.
The only military engagement that I can think of is, that Indian Airbase in Tajikistan, housing probably a squadron or two Mig-29s.

 

[deckingraj]

Chahbahar port and highway to Afghanistan through Iran is ONLY for Indian exports to Afghanistan. Rest of the Afghan trade is through Pakistan. But Afghanistan needs Chahbahar as an alternative to Karachi. Both Iran and Afghanistan are milking India to develop Chahbahar and the highway to Afghanistan and the Indians have no choice. So win-win for all three countries.

Well yes, however i am not sure about it however can someone please clarify...as far as i know that land locked countries have a right to access high seas....in other words Pakistan is obliged to give access to AF however not sure can they revoke it should AF for some reason doesn't allow them direct access to Tajikistan??

Afghanistan has access to Karachi port through APTTA. India exports to Afghanistan has been excluded so India is using Chabahar port and the highway to Afghanistan through Iran for its exports to Afghanistan. Afghanistan can export to India through Pakistan at the Wagah-Attari border but Indian exports cannot pass through Pakistan to Afghanistan. Pakistan exports to Central Asia are negligible and we can improve the highway link through China. Ghani is just playing with words without substance to keep Indians happy and nothing will change in this policy.

Well what these words means that there are Alternatives that AF can look at....a route via china is less economical than via AF for Pakistan as well...in short they have a bargaining chip, it may be of less value however we can't deny that they do have one...

 

[ArsalanKhan21]

Well yes, however i am not sure about it however can someone please clarify...as far as i know that land locked countries have a right to access high seas....in other words Pakistan is obliged to give access to AF however not sure can they revoke it should AF for some reason doesn't allow them direct access to Tajikistan??

India can allow Nepal/Bhutan to trade with the rest of the world through except Pakistan exports to Nepal. That is one exception in 150 countries of the world. Afghanistan is not as isolated as Nepal since they also have excellent highways to Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran.

 

[nForce]

India can allow Nepal/Bhutan to trade with the rest of the world through except Pakistan exports to Nepal. That is one exception in 150 countries of the world. Afghanistan is not as isolated as Nepal since they also have excellent highways to Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran.

@deckingraj pointed it out rightly. A country with access to the sea is bound to provide the same access to the neighbouring landlocked country. India, for example, has to provide such access for Nepal and Bhutan.

However, there is more than it meets the eye, but on a top level, it is a rule.

 

[ArsalanKhan21]

Well yes, however i am not sure about it however can someone please clarify...as far as i know that land locked countries have a right to access high seas....in other words Pakistan is obliged to give access to AF however not sure can they revoke it should AF for some reason doesn't allow them direct access to Tajikistan??

Afghanistan trade was through Pakistan before the highway and port were built in Iran. India wanted to use shorter land route from Wagah-Attari border to export to Afghanistan was denied by Pakistan although Afghanistan exports to Indian can use the border. This is all due to Pakistan-India tension over Afghanistan since 1980-90s. Before that India-Afghanistan trade went through Karachi.

 

[MilSpec]

Hopefully Pakistan should actively deny transit for Indian goods to Afghanistan, and India indeed should not expect any transit from Pakistan. This is a good development in the long run and should make Pakistan's stand and intent crystal clear to both Pres. A. Ghani and P.M. Modi.
India should completely abandon the prospect of any transit through Pakistan, and go through a much more expensive Sea route to ensure minimum transport of good, and show our solidarity and commitment towards Afghanistan and Iran. Also goods through Iran would not be subject to Pakistani inspections or reservations.

 

[In arduis fidelis]

Insignificant news just wait till next COAS visit to Kabul you will see a different statement from Ghani.Dont take this guy seriously.

 

[moisrar47]

Pakistan literally already has direct access to Tajikistan but will meet a few mountains on the way

 

[The Terminator]

so what about if Iran Afghanistan just kick out Indian influence after getting all the infrastructure development from Indian investment? As in Pakistan's case our whole country would take huge benefits only by China's massive import export traffic through Gwadar Kashgar economic corridor let alone China's future investment in Pakistan's industrial sector etc. What could India offer to Iran and Afghanistan except from a small mutual trade between countries?

If China has to import fuel i would be through that corridor, If China has to reach african and rich middle eastern and even european markets that would also be through Pak-China economic corridor. Pakistan would be rich by collecting minimum transit fares only. What would India do with that Chahbihar port of Iran just sell some indian products in Iran and Afghanistan and import Iranian oil. all that trade too under the very nose of rapidly growing Pakistan Navy and China's presence in Gwadar may become a strategic militarily nightmare for that trade route in bad times

 

[ghilzai]

We are enemies with india,

We have no issue with Afghanistan trading with india but it cant be through Pakistan


We do however expect a easy ride to Central asia, if Afghanistan refuses then, Afghanistan will have a problem

We are enemies with Afghanistan too, we aim to liberate our land from afghans who illegally occupy it being a minority.

Ghani is a dalla like most afghans, an afghan who can sell his daughter can easily sell his faith.

Fukk you Ghani.

 

[halfilhal]

You want to buy peanut from Kabul from Delhi? Yes sir. Okay me send truck 1,000 miles to Mumbai. Ship take truck to Chah Bahar another 800 miles. Truck drives north through Iran across into Afghanistan, drive 1,000 miles to Kabul. Here is your peeeeeNut that travelled nearly 2,700 miles. Take about 5 days at best.

Pakistan influence is over ... ha ha ha !

or just 600 miles through Pakistan in less than day !

Edit: Even NATO and US found that the most effective transport into Afghanistan was through Khyber Pass, Pakistan and thats why 80% of NATO supply was through Pakistan. As said above Kabul and other centres of population are next to Pak border in fact Kabul is only 120 miles from Peshawar and just 220 miles from Islamabad. For referance Delhi is nearly 400 miles from Islamabad.

Right on the money. Pakistan can only be relevant via blackmailing. Either we will drop the nuclear bomb or we will not give transit or we will do your bidding, just throw the money. Lets just wait it out. After doing mujra on US/UK/China/Saudi Arabia money, soon it will be Indian money on which your hips will shake and knees will scratch.

 

[Sugarcane]

This threat is laughable unless Mr. Ghani is thinking to cede small patch between Pakistan & Tajikistan to Pakistan in order to give us connectivity, We can go to Tajikistan via China, and if sanctions are removed than to Central Asia + Europe via Iran.

Anyway, doesn't matter how much Indians boost about Chah Bahar port, fact is that Pakistan is economical route if they want to compete.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@ Halfihal

Are you the resident retard here? We are engaging and furthering our national interest. Frankly I would not expect a Indian to say anything differant from what your saying.

Doing Mujra at official level of states making agreements for money is acceptable, even mighty nations like Germans have done it. This is infinitly better then 230 million starving Indian's with poverty worse than even Black Africa.

* India ranked poorest in south Asia on hunger index | Down To Earth
* Indian poverty levels higher than Pakistan's, says UN report - Telegraph
* More of world's poor live in India than in all sub-Saharan Africa, says study | World news | The Guardian

When occasionally the starving 230 milion Indian's do get a hold of dog's meal after having 'mujrahed' their back passage they inevitably need to sh*tt which they promptly do on the open streets of India. Perhaps it is a good thing that they don't get to eat much otherwise you would be in knee deep in crap.

* WHO | Fast facts

It will be the day when a Ganga dweller get's one over me. Now frigg off !

 

[patentneer]

2-3 things came to mind after going through this thread:

1. Tajik-Af.-Pak. is one hell of a trade triad. Look at the roads ... BUT LOOK @ THE TRADE ! Gun-running, drug smuggling, human trafficking rather then energy, steel and food.

2. Much of India's trade is over the wire. Software, IT, ITeS, Engg., Mgmt., Bollywood and culture, Project Finance and maybe diamonds and jewellery. Steel is obviously more competitive from China and Russia. Cement is Faujji Cement and local, Chinese and Russian. Defence, transport and energy equipment is historically Russian. All markets are puny and subject to Chinese competition.

3. Consumer goods. Open season. Foodwise, local supplies are plenty.

Pakistan cannot stop Indian trade of Software, IT, ITeS, Engg., Mgmt., Bollywood and culture, Project Finance and maybe diamonds and jewellery at all.

Conversely, Pakistan gains commissions with rapid opening of trade between Indian demand for energy and Central Asian supplies. Energy - Oil & Gas, is nobody's handmaiden and will go to the highest bidder. India can source plentyfull supplies from the hood - Middle East, here and Bangla/Burma there.

Calculate:

• Large gain 4 small Af.-Pak-Tajik Vs. Nominal harm to 100 pd. gorilla Indian economy ?

Timeline maybe only 5-10 yrs. Indian energy market will diversify with local coal, gas, nuclear and solar tech. Sure India will always remain energy hungry, but gone will be the peak, mad money.

 

[Kompromat]

Tajikistan bhi lengy, Afghanistan bhi lengy, Doodh bhi lengy, Kheer bhi lengy, Kashmir bhi lengy aur cheer bhi dengy. @Atanz @Icarus @Hyperion