Can China retake Taiwan by force? I don't believe any serious person believes otherwise.
However, the real goal is to reclaim Taiwan intact. The value of Taiwan lies in the scientists at Hsinchu Park. Taiwan's treasure is its technologies.
Military reclaiming Taiwan is a pyrrhic victory. Controlling a burnt-out husk of an island isn't much of a victory at all.
Taiwan is special. No other country can claim to have a higher per-capita grant in U.S. patents by the USPTO.
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Greater China beats Germany in U.S. patents again!
For 2010, Greater China (i.e. China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) maintained its lead over Germany to retain the unofficial third-highest rank for countries that receive the most patents in the United States.
Patent Counts By Type And State/Country (01-Jan-2010 To 31-Dec-2010)
Patents granted by the United States for the year 2010.
1. U.S. 121,164 patents
2. Japan 46,978
(Greater China 13,654)
3. Germany 13,633
4. South Korea 12,508
5. Taiwan 9,635
6. Canada 5,511
7. France 5,100
8. U.K. 5,038
9. China 3,303
10. Italy 2,254
...
India 1,137
Hong Kong 716 (Patent office counts Hong Kong as a separate entity)
Singapore 633
Russian Federation 287
Malaysia 224
Brazil 219
These countries are sometimes mentioned by the media as the "next China":
South Africa 142
Mexico 115
Thailand 60
Argentina 59
Poland 56
Greece 54
Turkey 45
Philippines 40
Chile 27
Egypt 20
Ukraine 14
Indonesia 6
Vietnam 2
The world's four largest exporters for 2010 are (1) China, (2) United States, (3) Germany, and (4) Japan. Not surprisingly, the world's four largest exporters are also the world's four largest grantees of U.S. patents (e.g. United States, Japan, Greater China, and Germany).
Patents are critical in becoming a world manufacturing power and exporter, because it creates a technological barrier of entry. Patents prevent a corporation's product from becoming a commodity that competes on price alone. The higher revenues and profits, which result from a patented product, enable a company to spend more money on research and development.
This is a self-reinforcing cycle. The United States, Greater China, Japan, and Germany continue to grow richer from their patented export products. The attainment of world-leading patents is the aspiration of any nation that wants to develop, grow technologically powerful, and wealthy.
Looking at the meager annual patents produced by nations touted by the media as the next China, we can see that all of those nations will probably become stuck in the "middle income trap."
"History shows that while many countries have been able to make it from low income to middle income, relatively few have carried on to high income. To make the high-income transition, countries have to specialize more in selected areas where they can achieve economies of scale and technological leadership."
From 2009 to 2010, the number of U.S. patents received by China increased by 46%. Even without Taiwan's help, the trend indicates that China will eventually become a wealthy nation. After all, China's annual number of U.S. patents already exceeds those of wealthy Italy. The only thing that China needs is time.
At a superficial glance, the patent list shows that India may be a viable emerging patent power. However, sometimes numbers lie. In my judgment, India will also be unable to escape the "middle income trap."
India's strength is in services as the world's call center. Most of India's patents are most likely in software, but the market for call centers is limited. For 20 years, "India has been unable to increase manufacturing's share of the economy, a dynamic that drove industrial revolutions in the U.S. and in other Asian countries." (See Wall Street Journal Interactive Slide for Indian Sectors at
In India, Doubts Gather Over Rising Giant's Course - WSJ.com)
In conclusion, twenty years from now, the world in 2031 will look very similar to the world today. The only difference is that China will have become exponentially more influential in the future. There is no "next China." There is only one China. That's the only reasonable conclusion that we can draw from the list of the world's most powerful patent powers.
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[Note: These are my comments from last year on "China Claims #9 Rank In United States Patents!"]
For 2009,
Greater China's 10,638 combined total patents (i.e. China's 2,270 + Taiwan's 7,781 + Hong Kong's 587) are greater than
Germany's 10,353 patents. Greater China would rank third on the U.S. patent list. The patent ranks are important because they help to explain why China is the world's largest exporter and Germany is the world's second-largest exporter. Patents play an important role.
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[Note: These are my comments from two years ago on "Greater China outnumbers German patents."]
There are 70,000 Taiwanese companies on the Chinese Mainland. It is my guess that many Chinese exports incorporate not only Chinese patents, but also Taiwanese patents. The Taiwanese were a perennial #4 in U.S. patents received until they were passed by South Korea in 2008.
While the current number of Chinese patents appears to be insufficient to support a large high-tech export base, the combination of Greater China (i.e. Chinese, Taiwanese, and Hong Kong) patents should suffice.
Greater China's 10,370 patents (i.e. China's 1,874 + Taiwan's 7,779 + Hong Kong's 717) are greater than the number of German patents at 10,086.
U.S. Department of State - Taiwan (10/09)
"Significant migration to Taiwan from the Chinese mainland began as early as A.D. 500. ..... There are a number of small political parties, including the Taiwan ....
in China, and more than 70000 Taiwan companies have operations there. .... In keeping with our one China policy, the U.S. does not support Taiwan ..."
