Syrian Civil War (Graphic Photos/Vid Not Allowed)

[United]

Grank army commander paralyzed for life ....

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Perhaps partitioning Syria is the best option at this stage.

There's too much bad blood between the different groups right now. I don't think they can ever coexist peacefully again.

 

[T-Rex]

Is Assad's regime losing momentum?
Government air strikes and promises of counter-offensive fail to dislodge rebel forces as Russia reduces air support.

After recent gains regime forces have not been successful in dislodging rebels from strategic supply routes in Aleppo and Idlib [Reuters]

By
Zeina Khodr



Roving Correspondent

Late February the Syrian government had the upper hand on the ground thanks to Russia's military intervention. Six months earlier President Bashar al Assad's hold on power was been threatened by rebels advance.

Tehran was believed to have requested Russian assistance. Moscow complied but its intention was never for Syria to become another Afghanistan.

The plan seemed to be to strengthen its ally and weaken its opponents enough to bring about a political deal that would ensure its influence in Syria.

The government did attend talks in Geneva but it did so without the intention of making any concession. Assad himself said he wanted to recapture the whole country - a statement criticised by Moscow.

Then he declared his intention to bring about a "final victory in Aleppo".
Two weeks of intense bombardments and fighting on the ground did not just kill civilians, the peace talks and the cessation of hostilities all but collapsed. The battle lines did not change.

For the past few days, the government and its allies tried but failed to close the Castillo road - the only route in and out of the rebel controlled east. It has been trying to lay siege to the area but opposition groups have held their ground.

It lost strategic territory in Aleppo's southern countryside, which was described as one of the worse losses in a single battle for Assad and more so for his regional allies.

Some reports suggested that dozens of Iranian, Afghan and Lebanese fighters from Hezbollah were killed.

Iran confirmed losing men and for the first time acknowledged that some of its fighters were captured.

A military alliance of opposition groups led by al-Qaeda linked al-Nusra Front scored a battlefield victory by recapturing Khan Touman.

The town is along a supply route between opposition held territories in Idlib and Aleppo provinces. The rebels lost it late last year.

Now it is theirs again. Dozens of air strikes and government promises of counter-offensives failed to regain hard won territory back.

Then came the death of Mustafa Badreddine, Hezbollah's man in Syria. He was the group's biggest loss in the war to date.

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) also took ground from the government - in the eastern countryside of Homs, cutting a main supply line to the city of Palmyra which Assad's forces with the backing of Russian air cover recaptured only recently.

ISIL also advanced against the government in the eastern city of Deir Ez Zour.

A series of losses just months after significant gains. Why has the government and its allies lost momentum?

Is it because Russia reduced its air strikes in Syria and is no longer providing close air cover like it did in previous battles?

Likely. But why the shift?

Russia is working with the US to push for a cessation of hostilities and a revival of the political track. US Secretary of State John Kerry may be right when he said Russia has an interest in not being bogged down in Syria forever.

And that would require getting Iran to agree to a compromise deal.

There have been reports of friction between Iran and Russia - a battle for influence, some call it. Tehran along with its allies have been suffering painful military setbacks.

Russia's reduced role on the battlefield may not just be a way to reduce Iran's influence but a message to make clear who is in charge.

Source: Al Jazeera

 

[500]

Most notorious pro-Assad journalist Hosein Mortada reports that Iranians wanted Russian air support in Khan Touman battle but they said they have no fuel. However next day Russian air force bombed Assad forces in Handarat.

https://www.facebook.com/hosein.mortada/posts/10204623085977200

 

[United]

If Badreddine was killed by rebels those rebels would be shouting it from the rooftops. Hezbollah's desperate to avoid a fight with Israel.

 

[ptldM3]

Most notorious pro-Assad journalist Hosein Mortada reports that Iranians wanted Russian air support in Khan Touman battle but they said they have no fuel. However next day Russian air force bombed Assad forces in Handarat.

https://www.facebook.com/hosein.mortada/posts/10204623085977200

Clearly Grank has plenty of fuel so Mortada was wrong on that count, so why should we take his words seriously?

 

[Tsilihin]

Various of type of weapons was used by russians forces in Syria for test but we haven't seen yet impact of Iskander missiles and vacuum bomb.
That is bad for science !

 

[United]

Iran is taking increasingly heavy casualties in Syria. A statement from the Revolutionary Guards announced on Saturday

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Syria is practically Russian territory. The only way Russia has military bases in the ME is if Assad remains in power. Assad is red line for Russia. That much is certain.

Not really. The Russians can easily carve an Alawite state out of (western) Syria, which will pretty much guarantee Russia a permanent military/naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Come to think of it, it's probably only a matter of time before the Russians partition Syria and create "Alawitestan".

The Americans/Westerners won't object to it because they want Syria to break up anyway.

Iran has 77 million people. Sunnis in rebel part of Syria has less than 1 million people. The latter would run out of people before they can even make a dent on Iran.

Do you honestly think 80 million Iranians are ready to die for the mullahs? The majority of Iranians are young, not very religious, and waiting for the right time to get rid of the mullahs. They'll only fight for their country (i.e. Iran). They'll never fight abroad on behalf of the Khomeinists.

 

[Falcon29]

Not really. The Russians can easily carve an Alawite state out of (western) Syria, which will pretty much guarantee Russia a permanent military/naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Come to think of it, it's probably only a matter of time before the Russians partition Syria and create "Alawitestan".

The Americans/Westerners won't object to it because they want Syria to break up anyway.

.

There will be no partitioning, mark my word.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Russians want Damascus. Damascus was the capital of the Umayyad. Russians love prestige. Russians want Palmyra. Russians love prestige. Russians won't be satisfied with only a small coastal area.

Plus, Russians will never allow a Syria where Sunni warlords run rampant because that could pose a security risk to Russia.

Grank bombed Red Crescent place in Ariha today

Russia only cares about Syria's coastal region because that's where its military and naval bases are located. If worst comes to worst, Russia will simply carve an Alawite state (i.e. Alawitestan) out of western Syria in order to permanently secure its military and naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

But Russia doesn't even need to do that because it still feels that it can have all of Syria instead of just the western coastal region.

Besides, the Saudis, Emiratis, Bahrainis and Egyptians -- all of whom are anti-Assad -- don't want Syria to be overrun by Sunni warlords either. All of them feel threatened by the Sunni Islamist groups. Only Turkey and Qatar have Sunni Islamist (i.e. Muslim Brotherhood) ambitions for Syria.

I think it's only a matter of time before Russia reaches an agreement with the Americans and Saudis, in which al-Assad will be removed from power (due to his close ties to Iran) while Syria will remain a secular Russian-aligned country. It's a win-win for both the Russian bloc and the Saudi bloc.

The Iranians won't like it, obviously. They'll definitely feel betrayed by Russia. The Turks will welcome al-Assad's departure, but they won't like the fact that their Islamist proxies won't be able to take over the new Syria. If this deal occurs, which I think it will in due time, then Turkey and Iran will be the biggest losers of the Syrian war. And should the Syrian Kurds get their own autonomous region a la Iraqi Kurdistan, which is becoming increasingly likely, then it would annoy the Iranians and Turks a lot more.

If the Iranians still want to win this war, they should do the job themselves instead of relying on Russia. Russia has its own interests in the region, not to mention the fact that it doesn't want to jeopardize its economic ties with the Arab World, especially the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Russia has a base in Palmyra and that's an ancient city. Russians will never leave Palmyra.

Iran is a Shia country. Iranians want to massacre Sunni Arabs because they hate Sunni Arabs and want revenge for the Arab conquest of Persia. It is likely Sunni Arabs of Syria are going to be reduced by quite a lot in this war.

Why do I get the feeling that you're enjoying this?

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

By the way, @Grank , I love how you're single-handedly destroying IMF. Keep up the good work lol. Send the mullah lovers my regards.

 

[Bilad al-Haramayn]

There will be no partitioning, mark my word.

I am not so sure about that brother. Forget about outside influences for a second and allow me to draw a comparison to Palestine. The Palestinian people have been under occupation for ages while fighting against an adversary many times stronger. Not to mention that this adversary has much stronger allies backing it.
Logic should almost dictate that the Palestinian cause should be dead by now however it is well and alive despite tremendous hardships. Why is that? Because almost every single Palestinian believes in the same cause, an independent Palestine.

How does this relate to Syria? Well, the future is entirely in the hands of the Syrian people. If the Syrian people unites no outside influence, no matter how strong they are, would be able, on the long run, to prevent the will of the Syrian nation.

However I have tremendous doubts about the future unity of the Syrian state given the events in the past 5 years. Will Alawites and the majority of Sunni Syrian Arabs ever trust each other? Where do the Christian Arabs stand here? Or the Kurds?

Look at Iraq for a second. De jure it's a united country when you look at a map but in reality we are talking about 3 countries and 3 peoples (Iraqi Shia Arabs, Iraqi Sunni Arabs and Iraqi Kurds) who despite Iraq being "liberated" by the Americans, can't really work with each other. I mean just take a look at the sad state of that once powerful country.

Yes, foreigners have played an overall negative role in Iraq but if the Iraqi people were united as one people the current state of the Iraq would not look like it does today.

So I am not worried about any foreigners in regards to Syria on the long run if I were to be a supporter of a united Syria (which I am as I believe in the integrity of all states in the region as the last thing we need is more division unless absolutely necessary) but rather about the internal relations among Syrians themselves. When I read what some of our Syrian brothers and sisters write to each other, I automatically get flashbacks to the "Iraqi situation".

Anyway I blame nobody but our own leaders for everything that is going on. They have the foremost responsibility for events and foreigners are just exposing that for their own gains. Hard to blame them in this brutal world where power is king. You cannot help people who do not want to help themselves.

For Arabs, the founders of 3 of the 11 largest empires in history (more than any other ethnic group in the top 15), and the Arab world, home to the oldest and most significant ancient civilizations, the very birthplace of civilization, to fall this low as currently seen, is the fault of nobody but the current Arabs. I am sad to say this but it's really a disgrace. I blame those in power of course not the ordinary men and women who have no say. What is even more sad is that we are talking about a region and a people (just take a look at the size of our youth and how many gems who are solely waiting for the right environment to flourish in) with tremendous potential, enormous resources, amble land etc. Almost everything that we could wish for we have, yet look at the situation. A tragedy. I am not wise enough to answer what causes all this (some of the causes are obvious) but something seriously needs to be done otherwise I fear that things will just go more one negative to the other.

What is even more annoying is that far too many Arabs simply have stopped caring. Shows how bad the situation is.

You know me as a very-pro China person and the reason for that is that China has developed in a way that the Arab world/Muslim world should have developed or should develop in the future. They are of course many decades ahead (maybe I am overreacting here but I truly believe this) but they went through much of the same trouble and challenges not long ago. That's why I believe that increased Chinese influence in the Arab world could be a positive thing. Let the two biggest ethnic groups of the world (Han Chinese and Arabs) work closely together. That does not mean that we cannot be allies or friends with the West or anyone else. I just believe that in our current situation moving more towards China and trying to emulate their good sides, would be very beneficial.

Anyway I should really withdraw from following events in the region for some time, it seriously impacts you in almost only negative ways.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

You know me as a very-pro China person and the reason for that is that China has developed in a way that the Arab world/Muslim world should have developed or should develop in the future. They are of course many decades ahead (maybe I am overreacting here but I truly believe this) but they went through much of the same trouble and challenges not long ago. That's why I believe that increased Chinese influence in the Arab world could be a positive thing. Let the two biggest ethnic groups of the world (Han Chinese and Arabs) work closely together. That does not mean that we cannot be allies or friends with the West or anyone else. I just believe that in our current situation moving more towards China and trying to emulate their good sides, would be very beneficial.

I'm 100% in favor of this.

Excellent post!