desiman
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Success after NATO's Afghanistan exit largely depends on India
Regional superpower has invested in Afghanistan reconstruction and trade, but that has raised long-held tensions with Pakistan
The key to what happens in Afghanistan after the United States and NATO allies including Canada begin bringing their military forces home next year will be the response of the regional superpower India.
Indeed, whether or not the international intervention force in Afghanistan can defeat the Taliban insurgency and put the country on the road to recovery between now and the start of planned troop pullouts depends substantially on the state of tensions between India and Pakistan.
There is a real risk that unless there are advances in the next few months in reconciling Pakistan and India, which have fought three wars and only narrowly avoided others since independence from Britain in 1947, a dangerous vacuum will be left behind.
Both India and Pakistan, of course, have substantial arsenals of nuclear weapons and came close to using them on each other as recently as 2002.
To some degree the setting out of exit timetables by United States President Barack Obama and allied leaders to placate increasingly war-weary publics at home has increased uncertainty.
Pakistan, for example, is showing resolution in confronting the insurrection and terror bombing campaigns by its domestic Taliban based in the lawless border regions with Afghanistan.
But Islamabad, especially its military and intelligence agencies, remains firmly disinclined to tackle the safe havens of the Afghanistan Taliban on its territory despite increasingly irate demands from Washington. Islamabad sees the Afghan Taliban as an essential asset for curbing India's substantial influence in Kabul and thus encircling Pakistan.
It was to forestall Indian influence in chaotic Afghanistan after the departure of occupying Soviet forces that the Pakistani government of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto adopted the Taliban, radicalized young male Afghan refugees, in the early 1990s.
They were trained and armed by the Pakistani security services, and dispatched to take power in Afghanistan from warlords of the Northern Alliance, which they did in 1996.
But since the U.S. used the Northern Alliance fighters to oust the Taliban and its al-Qaida terrorist guests in 2001, Indian influence and presence in Afghanistan has grown dramatically.
In his recent assessment of the situation in Afghanistan on which Obama based Washington's new policy and exit strategy, Gen. Stanley McChrystal warned that "increased Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions."
Pakistan's fears of Indian domination can frequently look ill-founded and sometimes even hysterical. But it is equally true that India seldom shows much regard for the sensitivities and insecurities of its neighbours.
India has pumped more than $1.2 billion into development projects in Afghanistan, making it one of the leading contributors to reconstruction.
Projects include the highly symbolic new parliament building, instructing MPs in the workings of democracy, building schools and hospitals, and training in India many elements of the Afghan National Army -- the linchpin of Obama's exit strategy.
Then there's a highway to the purpose-built Iranian port of Chabahar. This will allow India's growing trade with Afghanistan to avoid the obstacle of Pakistan refusing to allow goods to transit its territory.
Add to that the military air base India has established at Farkhor in Tajikistan just over Afghanistan's northeastern border as well as the close ties with India of both Afghan President Hamid Karzai and main opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah and Pakistan's nervousness can be understood.
So far India has resisted deploying its troops in Afghanistan, though there are more than 1,000 members of the paramilitary Indo-Tibetan Border Police playing various roles.
But since Obama announced late last year that American forces will start going home in June 2011, there has been public discussion in India that New Delhi might have to fill the security gap with its own troops.
This has added to Islamabad's anxiety and on Tuesday Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari called for resumption of peace discussions with India, especially over the disputed and divided territory of Kashmir that has been the cause of two of the two countries' three wars.
Preliminary, confidence-building discussions started in 2005 after the two countries again edged close. But New Delhi suspended those talks after the assault on India's commercial centre Mumbai by Pakistani-based terrorists in November 2008, still a major source of friction.
Success after NATO's Afghanistan exit largely depends on India
Regional superpower has invested in Afghanistan reconstruction and trade, but that has raised long-held tensions with Pakistan
The key to what happens in Afghanistan after the United States and NATO allies including Canada begin bringing their military forces home next year will be the response of the regional superpower India.
Indeed, whether or not the international intervention force in Afghanistan can defeat the Taliban insurgency and put the country on the road to recovery between now and the start of planned troop pullouts depends substantially on the state of tensions between India and Pakistan.
There is a real risk that unless there are advances in the next few months in reconciling Pakistan and India, which have fought three wars and only narrowly avoided others since independence from Britain in 1947, a dangerous vacuum will be left behind.
Both India and Pakistan, of course, have substantial arsenals of nuclear weapons and came close to using them on each other as recently as 2002.
To some degree the setting out of exit timetables by United States President Barack Obama and allied leaders to placate increasingly war-weary publics at home has increased uncertainty.
Pakistan, for example, is showing resolution in confronting the insurrection and terror bombing campaigns by its domestic Taliban based in the lawless border regions with Afghanistan.
But Islamabad, especially its military and intelligence agencies, remains firmly disinclined to tackle the safe havens of the Afghanistan Taliban on its territory despite increasingly irate demands from Washington. Islamabad sees the Afghan Taliban as an essential asset for curbing India's substantial influence in Kabul and thus encircling Pakistan.
It was to forestall Indian influence in chaotic Afghanistan after the departure of occupying Soviet forces that the Pakistani government of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto adopted the Taliban, radicalized young male Afghan refugees, in the early 1990s.
They were trained and armed by the Pakistani security services, and dispatched to take power in Afghanistan from warlords of the Northern Alliance, which they did in 1996.
But since the U.S. used the Northern Alliance fighters to oust the Taliban and its al-Qaida terrorist guests in 2001, Indian influence and presence in Afghanistan has grown dramatically.
In his recent assessment of the situation in Afghanistan on which Obama based Washington's new policy and exit strategy, Gen. Stanley McChrystal warned that "increased Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions."
Pakistan's fears of Indian domination can frequently look ill-founded and sometimes even hysterical. But it is equally true that India seldom shows much regard for the sensitivities and insecurities of its neighbours.
India has pumped more than $1.2 billion into development projects in Afghanistan, making it one of the leading contributors to reconstruction.
Projects include the highly symbolic new parliament building, instructing MPs in the workings of democracy, building schools and hospitals, and training in India many elements of the Afghan National Army -- the linchpin of Obama's exit strategy.
Then there's a highway to the purpose-built Iranian port of Chabahar. This will allow India's growing trade with Afghanistan to avoid the obstacle of Pakistan refusing to allow goods to transit its territory.
Add to that the military air base India has established at Farkhor in Tajikistan just over Afghanistan's northeastern border as well as the close ties with India of both Afghan President Hamid Karzai and main opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah and Pakistan's nervousness can be understood.
So far India has resisted deploying its troops in Afghanistan, though there are more than 1,000 members of the paramilitary Indo-Tibetan Border Police playing various roles.
But since Obama announced late last year that American forces will start going home in June 2011, there has been public discussion in India that New Delhi might have to fill the security gap with its own troops.
This has added to Islamabad's anxiety and on Tuesday Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari called for resumption of peace discussions with India, especially over the disputed and divided territory of Kashmir that has been the cause of two of the two countries' three wars.
Preliminary, confidence-building discussions started in 2005 after the two countries again edged close. But New Delhi suspended those talks after the assault on India's commercial centre Mumbai by Pakistani-based terrorists in November 2008, still a major source of friction.
Success after NATO's Afghanistan exit largely depends on India
So, ehmmm, the answer to your question basically is, YES WE CAN. Afghanistan should be like turning rubble into atomic rubble.
