Success after NATO's Afghanistan exit largely depends on India

[SMC]

Fair enough. You have your opinion, I have my own. I cannot see how 51% of Afghans would be favourable to US. That's just an impossibility. Not improbable, not unlikely, rather impossible. And I have given my reasons why this survey does not represent Afghan opinion, or at least cannot be taken as an indicator of Afghan opinion.

 

[karan.1970]

Here's the thing. Outside Kabul there's very little control that NATO and US have. So you can perhaps count this as the opinion of 25-35% of people - which is still way off the 90-100% that you're looking for. What about Afghanis living in Pakistan? A more realistic US support figure would be around 10-15%. Even in Kabul, it is not clear who was surveyed. People from government? Because they would definitely back US and india. Northern Alliance? Same thing.

It is pretty obvious you're do not know Pashtuns very well. Otherwise you'd not be still going over this lost argument.


Surveys do not always mean opinion polls...

I think the pashtun card has been played to death over and over again and has no relevence. The survey was not only done in Kabul to represent 25% of population. The 72% of land under taliban does not even represent 15% of Afg population.

Ok I agree surveys dont always mean opinion polls, then are you agreeing that all opinion polls done by Pakistan Govt are invalid by your logic..

 

[karan.1970]

Not even that. When NATO is kicked out, india will go along with them.

Its not a when, its an IF and a very big IF

 

[karan.1970]

The assumption is correct. Afghans are resistant to interference, and this NATO occupation seems to be going the same way previous attempts at interference have gone. It's not just negative opinion of US, it's negative opinion of US for a reason.

Facing heavy resistance does mean Afghans are against US. Not necessarily all Afghans, but vast majority.

For the last part, just like many other countries, opinions across the country differ greatly on things. In Pakistan, Iran, US, etc, and also Afghanistan. Again, it's tajiks who run Afghan government - not pashtun. Pashtun are greatly against US occupation or for that matter any outside interference. And those parts that are unsurveyed are pashtun parts.

Here's another view to this. Like last time, USSR was considered invaders by Afg and Pakistan as a friend while both USSR And Pak were interfearing in Afg. This time around, the afghan people may be seeing Pakistan and Taliban as Invaders and US as a friend. That will explain the good rating for USA and bad for Pakistan

Statistics also teaches you to evaluate multiple hypothesis and select the one that matches the data the best. In this case, your arguement of Pashtuns and 72% area does not hold any water as you are simply assuming that the survey was not done propely so that you can select the hypothesis that suites you (and not the data) . This is called Confirmation bias or myside bias..

 

[SMC]

Man..
Pashtuns are the biggest ethnic group in Afghanistan, they barely have any government representation. The US approval rating of 51% is an impossibility. I hope that much is clear. That is a very possible US approval rating in Afghan government, but not for public. I know you indians are masters at spin, but it doesn't change the facts.

Also, how do you know the territory controlled by Taliban is less than 15% of Afghan population?

 

[SMC]

Taliban as invaders? But Taliban had heavy support when they were formed. The fact that they control so much of Afghanistan means they still h ave plenty of support. This is a big LOL.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

karan.1970
How do you Define Success . Its definition is very vague especially in the Afghan theater of war ...!

 

[SMC]

Its not a when, its an IF and a very big IF

It's definitely a when. Afghanis have never surrendered or have been conquered. Moreover, this is an insurgency, a gureilla warfare, not conventional war. You can bet that the way things are looking, US is facing a humiliating defeat in Afghanistan.