Stratfor: Why India will continue to misfire against China and Pakistan (got dealt a bad hand)

[PDFChamp]

Can an Ambitious India Seize the Moment? (Here is why they say No. Reading between the lines).

Geopolitical Diary
January 19, 2017 | 03:37 GMT

Highlights:

Discussion of India's ambitions must be measured against the reality of its constraints. India's fiscal limitations stymie investment into the infrastructure projects it needs to spur growth. It is weighed down by an unwieldy parliamentary system that struggles to channel the demands of its billion-citizen polity into coherent policies. And it must contend with the persistent security threat from archrival Pakistan, which has prompted it to commit resources to support a strong military presence in Indian-held Kashmir, in turn undercutting the integration of South Asia's economies.

Too many issues to mention (this is just a start of the list. They continue below).

India also suffers from demographic shortcomings that limit its economic development. About 70 percent of Indians live in rural areas, and up to a quarter of the population is impoverished. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's efforts to grow India's manufacturing base and employ more of its large pool of semiskilled labor remain hamstrung by the lack of land and labor reform in the country. Even if India could implement land and labor reforms, however, it would still struggle to develop a globally competitive manufacturing sector in this era of increasing automation. For India, then, a further embrace of multilateralism could give it a path not only to compensate for those shortcomings and earn the investments it needs to bolster the economy but also to help it place a check on Pakistan.

Even as Jaishankar alluded to the uncertainty that colors New Delhi's view of U.S. intentions under President-elect Donald Trump, he sees an opportunity as the new U.S. administration takes power for India to increase its international engagement as a way to overcome its limitations. Sensing that Washington will grow more reluctant to throw itself into the affairs of distant nations, India wants to fill the vacuum by assuming a greater global leadership role of its own.


Yet for all of its diplomatic fervor, India bickers over foreign policy with its northern neighbor, China. Despite protestations and support from Washington, India has been unable to persuade China to place Masood Azhar, the leader of the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad, on a U.N. blacklist. Similarly, an 11th-hour diplomatic pitch in June and support from Washington failed to earn India a vote needed from China that would have allowed it to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a 48-member body whose members share nuclear technology with one another. At the Raisina conference, Modi took a jab at China, saying that if Beijing wants its regional connectivity projects, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which runs through Kashmir, to be successful, it must respect India's sovereignty.

The prickly dynamic between the countries, in part, is a continuation of a difficult history. A lingering dispute stemming from their 1962 border war complicates any Chinese investments in infrastructure projects in South Asia, which India perceives as a form of encroachment. But beyond critical statements from New Delhi, India is limited in how it can retaliate. In addition, China's interests in denying India's diplomatic desires have more to do with its support of Pakistan. Thus, while its embrace of multilateralism is a way for India to compensate for its constraints, these international forums themselves can be constrained through the presence of China — and by extension the interests of Pakistan, which views China as its strongest ally.

During his famous speech to the Indian parliament on the eve of India's independence, Nehru said the moment rarely comes when "the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance." Over the past 70 years, India, as one of Asia's dominant powers, has sought to be the voice of the world's developing nations. Now it has the opportunity, but can it get others to listen?

LOL, they didn't mention the biggest liabilities: #1: Modi (the Delusional Modi who is going to start a war and become really isolated). #2: Blind Hindu Fascists (who run on emotion).


Source: https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/can-ambitious-india-seize-moment

 

[ZenBird]

Lol foreign policy makers of India are busy ensuring that companies like Amazon can not sell slippers with Gandhi image on it. This will keep them busy for 50 years then they can start thinking of actual foreign policy issues.

 

[PDFChamp]

Lol foreign policy makers of India are busy ensuring that companies like Amazon can not sell slippers with Gandhi image on it. This will keep them busy for 50 years then they can start thinking of actual foreign policy issues.

Too bad they are stupid too. That's one more liability.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

You seems desperate to have your voice heard .. have you even read OP ? and what this thread it about ? i doubt you do

"Nehru is like Peter Pan, he won't learn anything new or unlearn what he has already learnt" - Jinnah

Pak strategic planners must have a Baht to be envious of. Their arch enemy is still bogged down in 1971, which in fact was possible due to unprecedented Soviet planning, training, armaments and logistics support at all levels of the campaign. According to Manekshaw, India had only a handful of tanks operational in May, and by December they could field WW2 like formations. By the by, Pak paid it back long time ago...

According to an article at the NYT, folks in Gujrat still guard their temples with foolproof security for Sultan Mehmut of Gazni took away all the gold they accumulated at the Somnath Temple...

 

[Cookie Monster]

"Nehru is like Peter Pan, he won't learn anything new or unlearn what he has already learnt" - Jinnah

Pak strategic planners must have a Baht to be envious of. Their arch enemy is still bogged down in 1971, which in fact was possible due to unprecedented Soviet planning and logistics support at all levels of the campaign. By the by, Pak paid it back long time ago...

Not to mention Pak was bogged down in a civil war. The other two times(1948, 1965) when Pak was united they couldn't do squat despite being massive in size. The one time they managed to win was by playing dirty and with the help of Bangladeshis...and they r so proud of it that they always bring it up on almost every thread.

 

[Dzz]

OP stop editing the article : the ORIGINAL-

Can an Ambitious India Seize the Moment?
January 19, 2017 | 03:37 GMT

Broadening India's role on the world stage is an ambition that Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar (R) embraces. (PRAKASH MATHEMA/AFP/Getty Images)
The world is in a state of flux, and according to Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, that can be a good thing for a rising regional power such as India, which in many ways is primed to seize the moment and propel itself toward a greater global leadership role. Today at the Raisina Dialogue, an international conference in New Delhi, Jaishankar touted India's diplomatic successes while laying out the country's global ambitions to an audience of 250 delegates that included such leaders as British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, head of U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Harry Harris and former Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Many factors support a more influential global role for India. The country benefits from a relatively young population (a significant proportion of which speaks English) and has one of the fastest growing major economies in the world. Thanks to its history of multilateral engagement, it has made few enemies. What's more, India was spared the worst effects of the 2008 global financial crisis.

What is a Geopolitical Diary?
Of course, discussion of India's ambitions must be measured against the reality of its constraints. India's fiscal limitations stymie investment into the infrastructure projects it needs to spur growth. It is weighed down by an unwieldy parliamentary system that struggles to channel the demands of its billion-citizen polity into coherent policies. And it must contend with the persistent security threat from archrival Pakistan, which has prompted it to commit resources to support a strong military presence in Indian-held Kashmir, in turn undercutting the integration of South Asia's economies.

India also suffers from demographic shortcomings that limit its economic development. About 70 percent of Indians live in rural areas, and up to a quarter of the population is impoverished. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's efforts to grow India's manufacturing base and employ more of its large pool of semiskilled labor remain hamstrung by the lack of land and labor reform in the country. Even if India could implement land and labor reforms, however, it would still struggle to develop a globally competitive manufacturing sector in this era of increasing automation. For India, then, a further embrace of multilateralism could give it a path not only to compensate for those shortcomings and earn the investments it needs to bolster the economy but also to help it place a check on Pakistan.

Even as Jaishankar alluded to the uncertainty that colors New Delhi's view of U.S. intentions under President-elect Donald Trump, he sees an opportunity as the new U.S. administration takes power for India to increase its international engagement as a way to overcome its limitations. Sensing that Washington will grow more reluctant to throw itself into the affairs of distant nations, India wants to fill the vacuum by assuming a greater global leadership role of its own.

Historically, Indian policymakers have generally honored the call by Jawaharlal Nehru, the country's first prime minister, to avoid entangling alliances. But the country has grown discontented with remaining aloof. In the past year alone, it has demonstrated the scope of its vision by engaging with every major region in the world. To wit, India hosted both the India-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit and the BRICS summit and ratified the United Nations climate change protocol in Paris. Modi addressed a joint session of the U.S. Congress in June and embarked on a four-nation tour to Africa in July. He also hosted British Prime Minister Theresa May in what was her first visit outside of the European Union since taking office, and on Jan. 26, he will host Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nuhayyan, Abu Dhabi's crown prince, as the chief guest for India's annual Republic Day parade..

Yet for all of its diplomatic fervor, India bickers over foreign policy with its northern neighbor, China. Despite protestations and support from Washington, India has been unable to persuade China to place Masood Azhar, the leader of the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad, on a U.N. blacklist. Similarly, an 11th-hour diplomatic pitch in June and support from Washington failed to earn India a vote needed from China that would have allowed it to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a 48-member body whose members share nuclear technology with one another. At the Raisina conference, Modi took a jab at China, saying that if Beijing wants its regional connectivity projects, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which runs through Kashmir, to be successful, it must respect India's sovereignty.

The prickly dynamic between the countries, in part, is a continuation of a difficult history. A lingering dispute stemming from their 1962 border war complicates any Chinese investments in infrastructure projects in South Asia, which India perceives as a form of encroachment. But beyond critical statements from New Delhi, India is limited in how it can retaliate. In addition, China's interests in denying India's diplomatic desires have more to do with its support of Pakistan. Thus, while its embrace of multilateralism is a way for India to compensate for its constraints, these international forums themselves can be constrained through the presence of China — and by extension the interests of Pakistan, which views China as its strongest ally.

During his famous speech to the Indian parliament on the eve of India's independence, Nehru said the moment rarely comes when "the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance." Over the past 70 years, India, as one of Asia's dominant powers, has sought to be the voice of the world's developing nations. Now it has the opportunity, but can it get others to listen?

 

[friendly_troll96]

padd lagay hve hn recycled daal kha kha k that's why.

 

[PDFChamp]

forgot about 1948 prove gilgit baltistan ,1962 100k indian soldier surrendered,1965 badly defeated,& kargil war

And, this time, we MAY not take any prisoners!!!

Pak Strength...Another Indian Liability.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

It is between India and China.
Why are Pak handles throwing in their threads

 

[PDFChamp]

It is between India and China.
Why are Pak handles throwing in their threads

Because you are obsessed with Pakistan.

 

[Brickwall]

Too bad they are stupid too. That's one more liability.

Pakistan needs to decide whether India is cleverly game with world or they are stupid, Half the opinion is saying we are cleverly working in Afghanistan or with other world power to destabilize Pakistan. And here it is said, we are stupid to have good foreign policy

 

[New World]

Modi took a jab at China, saying that if Beijing wants its regional connectivity projects, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which runs through Kashmir, to be successful, it must respect India's sovereignty.

seems like a typical dhamki...

well done Modiji.. keep it up..

 

[Brickwall]

And, this time, we MAY not take any prisoners!!!

Bad Luck...Another Indian Liability.

This time count is what 100 Hindus to 1 Muslims.. as your aware last count of 10 didn't work well for you

 

[PDFChamp]

As highlighted:

Guys, just sick to the thread and discuss. I included the source if anyone wants more details. But, the pertinent arguments were succinctly highlighted. If I were to summarize:

India is a poor country who can't pay for her own needs, has a bad governance structure and looking to pick a fight rather than work with economically rising neighbors. On top of this, the geopolitics are changes and India is left holding the bag: US will start to focus on internal matters first and not distant ones. India will need to kiss up to China and make up. But, it will "still struggle to develop a globally competitive manufacturing sector in this era of increasing automation".

Their arguments are grounded in reality. Pakistan can also use these tips: the importance of good governance and development of new high-tech industries are going to be crucial. Forget about India.

Highlights:

Discussion of India's ambitions must be measured against the reality of its constraints. India's fiscal limitations stymie investment into the infrastructure projects it needs to spur growth. It is weighed down by an unwieldy parliamentary system that struggles to channel the demands of its billion-citizen polity into coherent policies. And it must contend with the persistent security threat from archrival Pakistan, which has prompted it to commit resources to support a strong military presence in Indian-held Kashmir, in turn undercutting the integration of South Asia's economies.

Too many issues to mention (this is just a start of the list. They continue below).

India also suffers from demographic shortcomings that limit its economic development. About 70 percent of Indians live in rural areas, and up to a quarter of the population is impoverished. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's efforts to grow India's manufacturing base and employ more of its large pool of semiskilled labor remain hamstrung by the lack of land and labor reform in the country. Even if India could implement land and labor reforms, however, it would still struggle to develop a globally competitive manufacturing sector in this era of increasing automation. For India, then, a further embrace of multilateralism could give it a path not only to compensate for those shortcomings and earn the investments it needs to bolster the economy but also to help it place a check on Pakistan.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Not to mention Pak was bogged down in a civil war. The other two times(1948, 1965) when Pak was united they couldn't do squat despite being massive in size. The one time they managed to win was by playing dirty and with the help of Bangladeshis...and they r so proud of it that they always bring it up on almost every thread.

Apologize for missing the most crucial point. The level of proxy traitors are known by how their lives end. Mujib can easily make it within the top raw in the "Hall of fame for the proxies". Let's see how he and his family were killed. It were the BD folks and most of them fought against the Pak army. The brutality they showed in killing his minor son or pregnant daughter-in-law is the ramification of the hatred they had for him and what he stood for. No Pak folk can match it. BD Muslims had no remorse for it for they knew what a traitor he was. I think Pak folks can take some solace from it...