Strategic implications of the Brahmos missile attack

[Solidify]

Awesome man well captured

K

I was waiting for in detail analysis,
you did the great work,
thanks

 

[Khan vilatey]

I was waiting for in detail analysis,
you did the great work,
thanks

Thank you so much I really appreciate your kind words.

May I respectfully request that you add the bit of why I think Pakistans SOP worked. Where I talk about a possible second volley if this was war…..

K

 

[Adonis]

I feel if India threatens CPEC, China is going to get involved in someway, previously China didn't have as much national strength to make big moves unlike today.

Do you still think CPEC is ON?...not at least till IK is at the helm.

 

[GumNaam]

there's only one implication... WE NEED TO TEST OUR OWN HYPERSONIC MISSILE ASAP! this was no accident, india was planning on attacking an actual military target, india wanted to test if it would reach its target and it didn't, it got intercepted as far as I can tell. this means that they have started working on a hypersonic missile cuz they now know that brahmos ain't gonna cut it.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

I know that we are their neighbors but expect everything from India. You know people in Pakistan used to talk about Pakistan's nuclear deterrence but now it's eroded. Don't think about something which they can't do in the future. they can do anything. They actually did lots of things in the last 5 years which is an eye-opener for many. Living in illusion isn't reasonable. Today India can do anything. What purpose does ICBM serve? Well! they can tell the world that they can fire ICBM too, just like a cruise missile. They aren't giving any respect to Pakistan and Pakistan must come out from this illusion that they can never do this, they can never do that. India is a clever enemy.

What did India do in the last 5 years?

1) Fake Balakot strike
2) Lost soldiers and land to China
3) Lost fighter battle with Pakistan
4) Fired a cruise missile that has been shot down

 

[Solidify]

Thank you so much I really appreciate your kind words.

May I respectfully request that you add the bit of why I think Pakistans SOP worked. Where I talk about a possible second volley if this was war…..

K

Likewise the pleasure is mutual.

You can add a bit more, however the video has been uploaded, that means I can't make any changes unless I start a video part II.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

The deafening Indian silence, especially, at the initial phase is mind boggling! They make a huge hue and cry over even a pigeon!! Is it the repeat case of 02-26?

 

[El Sidd]

Protest rallies all across Pakistan are demanding actions against India so it be deterred.

Dozens of protests have sprung up after government failed to hold India accountable.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I believe India is planning a cold start attack

Facts we have determined

Some of this is already in the public domain.

• The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

It is based on the Oniks.

• As it flies at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today. The missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

• The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

• India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

There is no self-destruct option on the Brahmos.

• It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

Not necessarily.

• Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command

Brahmos control has been given separately to the Army, Navy and Air Force.
It is not a strategic weapon, does not carry nuclear war-heads and is not part of the strategic command.

• Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmos

Not yet demonstrated.

• Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid and worked more on this later

• We know India is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
  • The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters

The Indian Navy has been sailing submarines in the open seas, where those submarines have every right to be. It is not clear why there is so much misguided excitement about the detection of the submarine; that is not impossible, and it was not of submarines in Pakistani ocean space.

• • Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan

This is complete fiction.

• • Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently

Part of regular training.

• • India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts

It is not clear if the significance of the observations lies in noticing excessive training activity by Indian forces, or in noticing the absence of training and the cancellation of training. Both seem to be sinister, and provocative.

• India knows that past April due to harvest, heat and then monsoon which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver. Pakistani conflicts with India have happened in the winter months ,1965, 1971,1999, 2019…

• Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization

• India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

• Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.

• Pakistani government is distracted due to political issues

• Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tying up Pakistani forces in the north west

• India is not suicidal and would not risk the lives of 1.4 billion Indians to test a weapon in Pakistan as a nuclear response by Pakistan could devastate India.

What I believed happened

I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.


What I think Pakistan needs to do

• Use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
• India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Conference is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
• Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
• Air Defenses should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
• We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
• Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.

Summary:

I believe that India is planning a cold start like attack. The objective of Cold start is to take some Pakistani Territory to force Pakistan to give concessions. India has been conducting exercises like submarine infiltration, cancelation of air force exercises, special forces parachute insertion etc. in recent days.

The failed test of the Brahmose missile was a test in these series of preparedness exercises. Since this required higher realism test that went south due to the incompetence of the Indian forces. The Pakistani air defense response was near perfect as from our perspective this could have been one of many salvos and the focus during this missile launch would have been I assume to get aircraft up in preparation of Indian airstrikes and denying air superiority to the enemy. I speak more about this above. A lot of weakness of Indian non nuclear capable cruise missile have come to light including a detectability due to a higher flight profile , limited range ,relatively low accuracy , low maneuverability , very small payload etc.

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.

What we now need to do is prepare for a limited war.



Your opinion is welcome

@Chak Bamu

K

I feel if India threatens CPEC, China is going to get involved in someway, previously China didn't have as much national strength to make big moves unlike today.

Whatever other reason for war there might be, there will be no war due to threats to CPEC.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Unlikely and who will hold the escalation ladder? Limited war is great in theory but not in practice. Also those dwindling spares from Russia will only make the matters worse post conflict so why would Pakistan be content with a limited war when clearly supply chain issues will impact them a lot more than us.

Think it through, at least. Try to spot the fundamental error in your logic.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Both Pakistani establishment and Modi are lackeys of the US.

So forget about India & Pakistan fighting any wars in the foreseeable future.

on the contrary

Look at USA's prime objective, it is NOT to let China circumvent the south china sea probe
and gain access to arabian sea.
Secondary objective is to contain Russia, and not allow any drop of oil go to arabian sea
that isn't owned by american companies.

This can best be achieved if the subcontinent is thrown in conflict.
An exercise played since last 100 years in Afghanistan.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Pakistan in case any adventure by Indian even limited cold start will get surprise like no other

Pakistan already have its own plans and will not shy away from them to give sudden huge surprises to indian side

Same and opposite limited full spectrum offensive defence will play its role

On the final negotiations table it won’t be any beneficial to Indians

Are you planning to take over the Delhi municipal administration? It is likely that the Supreme Court of India may mention you favourably in some of its judgements.

I guess BrahMos is also obsessed with Pakistan just like @Turingsage as it only decided to Enter Pakistani air space, while India has many other neighbors also.

We thought of entering Sri Lanka air space, but it seemed too threatening.

Don't worry, our missiles also share this mutual feeling.

I'm glad they like Pakistan, if I interpreted the sentence above correctly.

 

[El Sidd]

Protest rallies all across Pakistan are demanding actions against India so it be deterred.

Dozens of protests have sprung up after government failed to hold India accountable.

New string of protests are likely to erupt as newly installed government in Pakistan downplays the strategic importance of a near miss with MAD.