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Strategic implications of the Brahmos missile attack

The missile just decided to fly a very specific route on its own.

There is no shred of evidence that this trajectory was pre-planned. Had it been planned then it would not be burying itself into the ground in the wilderness.

Some have mentioned that it must have been carrying a warhead as the crater was large . This was a large crater because the Brahmos carries a large kinetic energy due to its speed of Mach 3.

Please learn your O Level physics
 
It was a nothing burger, the Indians just fired the missile for the fun of it. That's all there is to it, they avoided firing at civilians for a reason.
 
Parliament must revisit the scope of Raddul Fassad to include preemptive targeting of rogue Indian launch sites scattered around the border.
 
Pakistan in case any adventure by Indian even limited cold start will get surprise like no other

Pakistan already have its own plans and will not shy away from them to give sudden huge surprises to indian side

Same and opposite limited full spectrum offensive defence will play its role

On the final negotiations table it won’t be any beneficial to Indians
 
I guess BrahMos is also obsessed with Pakistan just like @Turingsage as it only decided to Enter Pakistani air space, while India has many other neighbors also.
It was in not obsession but love that forced the missile to take the route via Pakistani airspace.

Hawa hi kuch aisi hai Pakistan ki, ke missile apne aap ko rok hi nahi pai. Khud ba khud uske kadam Pakistan ki taraf mud gaye.
 
It was a nothing burger, the Indians just fired the missile for the fun of it. That's all there is to it, they avoided firing at civilians for a reason.

No it was not fired for fun but a accidental launch during maintenance.

There is one thing most here are absolutely right about. For whatever reason this constitutes a terrible and massive error.

It is ABSOLUTLY CRITICAL that this incident is examined by the highest board of inquiry in its most minute detail. It is also absolutely incumbent on India to share this inquiry report in as much detail as possible with Pakistan as long as it does not compromise any Indian vital interest.

This should not be allowed to be brushed under the carpet by India in the interests of mutual safety and trust and Pakistan should maintain pressure on India to ensure this does not happen.
 
There is no shred of evidence that this trajectory was pre-planned. Had it been planned then it would not be burying itself into the ground in the wilderness.

Some have mentioned that it must have been carrying a warhead as the crater was large . This was a large crater because the Brahmos carries a large kinetic energy due to its speed of Mach 3.

Please learn your O Level physics
Sure absolutely, what do we know regarding elevation data and programmed flight paths. Missiles launched accidentally do make turns at specific points and head towards specific areas.
I cannot compete with mahan Indian physics explanations with my O levels.
First there was god, then he asked you to define not just physics but telepathy to know that I think the crater was done because of warheads. Almost as if you could put words in my mouth… astounding mental capacity probably requires a head so big I wonder how your shoulders can bear it..,

I guess BrahMos is also obsessed with Pakistan just like @Turingsage as it only decided to Enter Pakistani air space, while India has many other neighbors also.
Reality is their canvas, these mahan will paint it as they deem it and dismiss everything else as they wish. God’s gobar.. I mean gift to earth they are.
 
I believe India is planning a cold start attack

Facts we have determined

  • The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

  • As it flies at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today. The missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

  • The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

  • India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

  • It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

  • Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command

  • Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmos

  • Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid and worked more on this later

  • We know India is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
    • The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters
    • Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan
    • Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently
    • India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts

  • India knows that past April due to harvest, heat and then monsoon which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver. Pakistani conflicts with India have happened in the winter months ,1965, 1971,1999, 2019…

  • Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization

  • India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

  • Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.

  • Pakistani government is distracted due to political issues

  • Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tying up Pakistani forces in the north west

  • India is not suicidal and would not risk the lives of 1.4 billion Indians to test a weapon in Pakistan as a nuclear response by Pakistan could devastate India.


What I believed happened

I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.


What I think Pakistan needs to do

  • Use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
  • India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Conference is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
  • Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
  • Air Defenses should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
  • We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
  • Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.


Summary:

I believe that India is planning a cold start like attack. The objective of Cold start is to take some Pakistani Territory to force Pakistan to give concessions. India has been conducting exercises like submarine infiltration, cancelation of air force exercises, special forces parachute insertion etc. in recent days.

The failed test of the Brahmose missile was a test in these series of preparedness exercises. Since this required higher realism test that went south due to the incompetence of the Indian forces. The Pakistani air defense response was near perfect as from our perspective this could have been one of many salvos and the focus during this missile launch would have been I assume to get aircraft up in preparation of Indian airstrikes and denying air superiority to the enemy. I speak more about this above. A lot of weakness of Indian non nuclear capable cruise missile have come to light including a detectability due to a higher flight profile , limited range ,relatively low accuracy , low maneuverability , very small payload etc.

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.

What we now need to do is prepare for a limited war.



Your opinion is welcome

@Chak Bamu

K
On the one hand, you rightfully point at the state of the Indian military whose 23% inventory is of Russian origin, and the fact that there would be shortages of spares, on the other hand, you say Indians will use this time of global upheaval to wage war. The seeds of self-contradiction lie in the very argument made in the post. Indian airforce exercise was canceled to reserve spares which would be hard to come by now, true, but this argument again weakens your primary argument. Why would a country that has a history with the demonstration of superior strategic thought and action than us conduct a large-scale military operation (for what objective?) when it knows that much of its airforce would be in a bind due to a shortage of spares? I do however concur that we must continue highlighting the intentions of the Indian state towards military adventurism which would come one day to seek the world's favor and turn around a corner just like a near rogue state (by taking the lead in conducting nuclear tests without provocation) of India did in the aftermath of the Kargil conflict.
Again a good effort. Do tag seniors so that they may share their thoughts.

While I think that we must always be prepared for any misadventure from India, we must consider the following points:

1. We must not take steps that tell the world that a war is imminent. This impacts investor confidence, increases insurance premiums, reduces tourism, and associates a country with general instability. So, whatever we do, must be done quietly and without fan-fare.

2. The best line of defense is diplomacy combined with a calm show of strength to show self-assurance & confidence. Many a crisis are averted with this approach - case in point is Gen Zia-ul-Haq's visit to India to watch cricket match when tensions were high & Pakistan was preparing to face an Indian attack.

3. If the army is focused on its role, political instability's impact on defensive capability is manageable. It is a big IF in case of Pakistan since we have often seen the opposite.

4. Indians have lost the element of surprise. They might feel adventurous, but we are prepared & have most likely updated SOPs.

5. I believe that Cold Start Doctrine has outlived its usefulness since Pakistan has had many years to adjust military preparedness & stance accordingly. Nasr is an example in this case.

6. India has a long-standing policy to keep Pakistan at an edge so that we deploy a much greater percentage of our resources on defense. This is to India's comparative advantage, since such a reaction from Pakistan has many internal impacts on economy, political stability, Human Development Index, & other long term effects.

In conclusion, I believe that Pakistan must be prepared, but not cross certain thresholds that may send wrong signals & waste resources. What ever that we do, must be done quietly & effectively. Indians would be made to know that Cold Start will not be a walk in the park.


Unlikely and who will hold the escalation ladder? Limited war is great in theory but not in practice. Also those dwindling spares from Russia will only make the matters worse post conflict so why would Pakistan be content with a limited war when clearly supply chain issues will impact them a lot more than us.
Our armor would be impacted bitterly (T-80 UDs) as well.
 
On the one hand, you rightfully point at the state of the Indian military whose 23% inventory is of Russian origin, and the fact that there would be shortages of spares, on the other hand, you say Indians will use this time of global upheaval to wage war. The seeds of self-contradiction lie in the very argument made in the post. Indian airforce exercise was canceled to reserve spares which would be hard to come by now, true, but this argument again weakens your primary argument. Why would a country that has a history of better strategic thought and action than us conduct a large-scale military operation (for what objective?) when it knows that much of its airforce would be in a bind due to a


shortage of spares?


Our armor would be impacted bitterly (T-80 UDs) as well.
How sure are you of that?
Perhaps people should get to know how many SMEs are involved in producing line maintenance parts for Pakistan Army in Pakistan before “all is lost” statements.
 
How sure are you of that?
Perhaps people should get to know how many SMEs are involved in producing line maintenance parts for Pakistan Army in Pakistan before “all is lost” statements.
Colour me pleasantly surprised in that case. This is a case where I would love to be proven wrong.
 
Colour me pleasantly surprised in that case. This is a case where I would love to be proven wrong.
Outside of certain cantt and in the surrounding areas there are one of Pakistan’s largest heavy machinery parts manufacturers. Their portfolio includes parts for a variety of trucks, loaders, lifters and quite a few armored vehicles for the PA.

Unless its a major line component, most parts for the engines used in PA Tanks are being or capable of being fabricated locally.
 
On the one hand, you rightfully point at the state of the Indian military whose 23% inventory is of Russian origin, and the fact that there would be shortages of spares, on the other hand, you say Indians will use this time of global upheaval to wage war. The seeds of self-contradiction lie in the very argument made in the post. Indian airforce exercise was canceled to reserve spares which would be hard to come by now, true, but this argument again weakens your primary argument. Why would a country that has a history with the demonstration of superior strategic thought and action than us conduct a large-scale military operation (for what objective?) when it knows that much of its airforce would be in a bind due to a shortage of spares? I do however concur that we must continue highlighting the intentions of the Indian state towards military adventurism which would come one day to seek the world's favor and turn around a corner just like a near rogue state (by taking the lead in conducting nuclear tests without provocation) of India did in the aftermath of the Kargil conflict.




Our armor would be impacted bitterly (T-80 UDs) as well.
I need to provide a longer reply to another poster but for you here is the summary of why I believe that India is preparing for a cold start like attack in 2022.
1) 70% of Indian arms are of Russian origin some people say up to 80% but it depends on who you ask

2) the entire Indian armor is composed of bmp 2, T-72 and t-90 tanks. Significant portions of towed artillery is of Russian origin and all of thier rocket artillery is Russian.

3)Indian Air Force has these non Russian aircraft 36 Rafael, 100 ish jaguars and 45 mirage 2000 , the rest is all Russian! Same is true for air defense system,

Indian navy save the 6-8 scorpion submarines is all Russian inspired or sourced from Russia!

Now for the second part why would india attack now

1) modi is prone to adventurism with Pakistan, surgical strikes, Balakot ….. he uses it for cheap publicity.

2) India is a large military with 1.3 million troops as they operate thier equipment like BMPs and other light armored units in Kashmir and armored units in the plains they will start to run out of parts. In 6-8 months with no Russian supply of parts they would lose the ability to launch an attack and would need to focus on defensive operations only.

3) The Indians know that by end of 2023 Pakistan would have inducted most of their large scale systems and would have completed familiarization with a 0.75 parity interns of equipment. It would be almost impossible for India to conduct any operations without losing significant forces hence 2022 is the most opportune moment. If this were not the case india would have continued with their airforce exercises.

3) by end of 2022 early 2023 Paksitan would have almost no resupply and spare part problems as Pakistan would have either sourced Ukraine engine parts or replaced them with chines engines for alkhalid and t-80ud tanks while india would be hard pressed to buy spares. The largest alternate supplier of Russian spares was Ukraine whose capacity has been reduced to rubble by Russia. So the single suppler of Indian spares will take 2-4 years to re supply their own stockpiles and would be hard pressed to provide support to the Indians

Hope this clears things up for you

k
 

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