Strategic implications of the Brahmos missile attack

[Luosifen]

A question that should also be asked is, are the consequences from failing such a campaign manageable from the Indian side? They'd be taking a massive gamble starting such an operation with the Pakistan Army alert from the missile launch and PLA watching closely from the North, are the chances for them to win and the rewards more than the chances they lose and whatever penalties they suffer in the aftermath? At the very least a failure would be a massive embarrassment to the current Modi government, could set off infighting as a blame game escalates or other political unrest.

 

[Khan vilatey]

A question that should also be asked is, are the consequences from failing such a campaign manageable from the Indian side? They'd be taking a massive gamble starting such an operation with the Pakistan Army alert from the missile launch and PLA watching closely from the North, are the chances for them to win and the rewards more than the chances they lose and whatever penalties they suffer in the aftermath? At the very least a failure would be a massive embarrassment to the current Modi government, could set off infighting as a blame game escalates or other political unrest.

I believe the Modi and the Indians are going to misjudge our response. They would commit less but go for hard hits by committing Air Force, cruise missiles and ground forces for cold start. The problem is we are better prepared then we have been for decades. This may actually act as encouragement rather than a deterrent . See India is facing seclusion, its biggest supplier of weapons Russia and moral support the west are both cutting deals with China. Knowing this India will be feeling it’s back against the wall and an attack when spares are still viable maybe an idea to dent the Pakistani side to desuade China or at the very least scare Pakistan to not gang up on India with China.

The problem is that if an attack with a division or less is conducted agaisnt Pakistan the result will be a complete defeat for India. Even the Indian airforce in the beginning of the conflict as an aggressor force will have to face significant Air defenses capability of Pakistan. This will then result in a full scale war starting where india mobilizing under pressure.

This will be the best opportunity for Pakistan to take significant parts of Kashmir. This would be the best punishment for India!

In all these operations, I see significant losses on the Pakistan side , on the tune of a million dying. This may be the price for taking Kashmir and parts of Punjab and Gujarat. I am including Kashmiri and civilian deaths in my estimate as there maybe a nuclear exchange.

Allah protect us all.

K

 

[khansaheeb]

There is no shred of evidence that this trajectory was pre-planned. Had it been planned then it would not be burying itself into the ground in the wilderness.

Some have mentioned that it must have been carrying a warhead as the crater was large . This was a large crater because the Brahmos carries a large kinetic energy due to its speed of Mach 3.

Please learn your O Level physics

Trajectory was preplanned, it was a warning and a message to Pakistan and a test of our nuke defenses and responses. This was strategically a bad mistake by India as it has awoken a new sense of urgency and preparedness in Pakistan and the full backing of the PA by the people.

No it was not fired for fun but a accidental launch during maintenance.

There is one thing most here are absolutely right about. For whatever reason this constitutes a terrible and massive error.

It is ABSOLUTLY CRITICAL that this incident is examined by the highest board of inquiry in its most minute detail. It is also absolutely incumbent on India to share this inquiry report in as much detail as possible with Pakistan as long as it does not compromise any Indian vital interest.

This should not be allowed to be brushed under the carpet by India in the interests of mutual safety and trust and Pakistan should maintain pressure on India to ensure this does not happen.

This should be shared will all the neighbours and just not Pakistan. -" It is also absolutely incumbent on India to share this inquiry report in as much detail as possible with Pakistan as long as it does not compromise any Indian vital interest."

 

[Pak Nationalist]

I need to provide a longer reply to another poster but for you here is the summary of why I believe that India is preparing for a cold start like attack in 2022.
1) 70% of Indian arms are of Russian origin some people say up to 80% but it depends on who you ask

2) the entire Indian armor is composed of bmp 2, T-72 and t-90 tanks. Significant portions of towed artillery is of Russian origin and all of thier rocket artillery is Russian.

3)Indian Air Force has these non Russian aircraft 36 Rafael, 100 ish jaguars and 45 mirage 2000 , the rest is all Russian! Same is true for air defense system,

Indian navy save the 6-8 scorpion submarines is all Russian inspired or sourced from Russia!

Now for the second part why would india attack now

1) modi is prone to adventurism with Pakistan, surgical strikes, Balakot ….. he uses it for cheap publicity.

2) India is a large military with 1.3 million troops as they operate thier equipment like BMPs and other light armored units in Kashmir and armored units in the plains they will start to run out of parts. In 6-8 months with no Russian supply of parts they would lose the ability to launch an attack and would need to focus on defensive operations only.

3) The Indians know that by end of 2023 Pakistan would have inducted most of their large scale systems and would have completed familiarization with a 0.75 parity interns of equipment. It would be almost impossible for India to conduct any operations without losing significant forces hence 2022 is the most opportune moment. If this were not the case india would have continued with their airforce exercises.

3) by end of 2022 early 2023 Paksitan would have almost no resupply and spare part problems as Pakistan would have either sourced Ukraine engine parts or replaced them with chines engines for alkhalid and t-80ud tanks while india would be hard pressed to buy spares. The largest alternate supplier of Russian spares was Ukraine whose capacity has been reduced to rubble by Russia. So the single suppler of Indian spares will take 2-4 years to re supply their own stockpiles and would be hard pressed to provide support to the Indians

Hope this clears things up for you

k

In a war, stocks are exhausted at a brisk pace. Nobody in their right mind would expedite the exhaustion of critical war stocks that cannot be replenished at the moment. The kind of problem an army would be facing in the event of rapid exhaustion of war stocks during the war rather than 6-7 months down the lane in peacetime simply do not equate. Modi's (BJP's) popularity remains strong in India. Recent UP polls have established that. Pakistanis should stop being delusional. Indian economy is growing briskly as well. The inflation there is perhaps the lowest in the entire South Asian region. The Indian government simply has no benefit in stirring the hornet's nest for electoral gains.

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

In a war, stocks are exhausted at a brisk pace. Nobody in their right mind would expedite the exhaustion of critical war stocks that cannot be replenished at the moment. The kind of problem an army would be facing in the event of rapid exhaustion of war stocks during the war rather than 6-7 months down the lane in peacetime simply do not equate. Modi's (BJP's) popularity remains strong in India. Recent UP polls have established that. Pakistanis should stop being delusional. Indian economy is growing briskly as well. The inflation there is among the lowest in entire South Asia. The government there simply has no benefit in stirring the hornet's nest for electoral gains.

Fair question...
So for answers you look at the alternative. How long would it take to replace aging existing stocks. What would be the replacement, western or whatever could be salvaged from Russia or India goes for a native solution(inherently time consuming).

It means existing 70 to 80 percent of hardware will need replacement over time. I'd assume two options... sit back lick your wounds, regroup and rebuild anew... Or..., see what are the foremost pressing issues and if existing stocks could be used to achieve them... some would argue(whoever does that), that it may be possible to achieve limited short-term goals with existing stocks and that they maybe sufficient to deliver... and rebuild/restock over time.

The whole purpose of this exercise is to game the possibilities... and this holds some merit!

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Fair question...
So for answers you look at the alternative. How long would it take to replace aging existing stocks. What would be the replacement, western or whatever could be salvaged from Russia or India goes for a native solution(inherently time consuming).

It means existing 70 to 80 percent of hardware will need replacement over time. I'd assume two options... sit back lick your wounds, regroup and rebuild anew... Or..., see what are the foremost pressing issues and if existing stocks could be used to achieve them... some would argue(whoever does that), that it may be possible to achieve limited short-term goals with existing stocks and that they maybe sufficient to deliver... and rebuild/restock over time.

The whole purpose of this exercise is to game the possibilities... and this holds some merit!

As far as considering this a thought experiment, I am all for it, but seeing it as some sort of writing on the wall is not very rational. If anything could be learned from the Ukraine war, it is that once the dice rolls wars can be fought at their own pace and there is no way to make very realistic estimations of attrition. The Russian military is struggling to supply its own frontline troops let alone supplying the Indian military. It is a plausible assumption that any limited Indian action across the LoC/IB would meet stiff resistance ultimately if not immediately (if strategic surprise is achieved like it was in 65). In such a situation, attrition would be inflicted on the foe and war stocks would exhaust briskly (Indian armed forces are marred by gaping voids of stocks of spares anyways - emergency purchases they end up making after crisis like Kargil, Pulwama, Galwan, etc. are instructive guides in this respect). Why would someone want to commit harakiri for no rhyme or reason?

Wars are fought to achieve a strategic objective. What is India's strategic objective? What would be its casus belli? The OP should answer these questions instead of mocking people who question his assumptions. @Chak Bamu, positive ratings are pretty cheap these days.

 

[VkdIndian]

Wars are fought to achieve a strategic objective. What is India's strategic objective? What would be its casus belli?

Bang on analysis.
No one starts a war by firing a single missile without warhead.
Indian government may be belligerent but not stupid and there is no reason to start a war or even an skirmish.

Few FMs who otherwise have very balanced views seem to have taken a radical view of this incident. As if on some direction from someone.

In fact the heading of the thread “Strategic implications of the Brahmos missile attack” appears to be a rabble rouser. ATTACK? Really?

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

As far as considering this a thought experiment, I am all for it, but seeing it as some sort of writing on the wall is not very rational. If anything could be learned from the Ukraine war, it is that once the dice rolls wars can be fought at their own pace and there is no way to make very realistic estimations of attrition. The Russian military is struggling to supply its own frontline troops let alone supplying the Indian military. It is a plausible assumption that any limited Indian action across the LoC/IB would meet stiff resistance ultimately if not immediately (if strategic surprise is achieved like it was in 65). In such a situation, attrition would be inflicted on the foe and war stocks would exhaust briskly (Indian armed forces are marred by gaping voids of stocks of spares anyways - emergency purchases they end up making after crisis like Kargil, Pulwama, Galwan, etc. are instructive guides in this respect). Why would someone want to commit harakiri for no rhyme or reason?

Wars are fought to achieve a strategic objective. What is India's strategic objective? What would be its casus belli? The OP should answer these questions instead of mocking people who question his assumptions. @Chak Bamu, positive ratings are pretty cheap these days.

I'm afraid you have drawn all the wrong conclusions...
Let me elaborate, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine before it became a hot war was considered long shot by many... the oversimplification of a worldview into a proxy narrative of sand and sunshine only blows away when reality hits...
For instance do you by any chance assume that Modi has less hubris than Putin? Or, that Putin may need calm, rally his crowds or posture/pander for ratings? Which is why things that have happened and continue to happen around the conflict are very important... they are the true tell on the simmering issues... because they come to the fore... perhaps because they're not as peripheral as many think.
Again your assumption that Putin has dug himself into a quagmire(?) Perhaps..., He didn't assume the kind of resistance or quality of his campaign etc... these are outside impressions and assumptions... based further on lack of understanding, ignorance of goals at hand. So, without going into details it is very safe to assume that Russia can turn Ukraine into rubble several times over and if Europe so chooses will see the similar fate of it's cities and infrastructure in general. That being said you should understand that the theater of war is Ukraine itself... they're defending themselves on home turf with the best the west has to offer... the onus remains on them at whatever point in time they choose to stop and accept reality. Or, keep watching a slow motion train wreck... the conflict is bigger than them and they are(or at least some are) cognizant of the fact that they are fighting not for Ukraine but for the combined west and that their sacrifice must be accepted as such...

Anyways, back to India... it is again a dormant conflict that is only waiting for either someone to make the wrong move or assume that the time has come... remember this conflict is one of the cogs amongst many and smaller of the bigger wheels in motion on whose dial each find themselves perhaps even unwilling, but pawns, nonetheless...


Remember Ukrainians were pegging their hopes on one deterrence, that Russia will never dare attack them knowing that the combined west stands with them and that they had been willing participants in a war of aggression against Iraq something quite similar to what they face today...
Who is Pakistan banking on? Knowing that it's bellicose neighbor has shown not only an appetite to fight but most importantly kept a posture of complete aggression while simultaneously needling Pakistani defenses here and there... So, the coincidence is that a civilian airliner headed to Pakistani airspace with a military code... or now a mistaken launch of nuclear capable missile through again civilian aviation into Pakistani airspace. Or, perhaps two different approaches to gauge Pakistani response...

I don't know... but keeping your eyes wide shut won't help either...

 

[Khan vilatey]

In a war, stocks are exhausted at a brisk pace. Nobody in their right mind would expedite the exhaustion of critical war stocks that cannot be replenished at the moment. The kind of problem an army would be facing in the event of rapid exhaustion of war stocks during the war rather than 6-7 months down the lane in peacetime simply do not equate. Modi's (BJP's) popularity remains strong in India. Recent UP polls have established that. Pakistanis should stop being delusional. Indian economy is growing briskly as well. The inflation there is among the lowest in entire South Asia. The government there simply has no benefit in stirring the hornet's nest for electoral gains.

Thank you @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ . I believe people are discounting how disgruntled the minorities are in India. Modi’s win in UP proves that his ideological shift will be quickly towards hindutva. This would mean he will alienate 20% of the populous.

Indias economy is already hurting and this hurt will increase over the next 3 years. See China will ask for economical concessions in return for military restraint in the Russian conflict. This would mean limited growth in India. Modi will use this to hit Pakistan to reinforce his strong man credentials. The question is how hard will Pakistan hit back. I hope extremely hard. We have a chance to free kashmir

k

 

[Chak Bamu]

@Chak Bamu, positive ratings are pretty cheap these days.

My friend, we must nurture people who wish to think & write more than a couple of paragraphs. I would given the OP another positive rating if he made another similar effort, even as I disagree with him partially.

Look, nobody is born an analyst. Everyone learns to apply his skills. In this case @Khan vilatey made a connection between three things: Russian spares & Indian dependence upon them, Modi's proclivity to engage militarily to drive his political advantage, & future development of Pakistan's war fighting capability. I have to reward his thinking & effort so that he continues to engage & contribute. One day he will be encouraging other young people to do likewise.

If your ego can not digest a positive rating to someone who is making a serious effort, then what can it do?

 

[Chak Bamu]

Bang on analysis.
No one starts a war by firing a single missile without warhead.
Indian government may be belligerent but not stupid and there is no reason to start a war or even an skirmish.

Few FMs who otherwise have very balanced views seem to have taken a radical view of this incident. As if on some direction from someone.

In fact the heading of the thread “Strategic implications of the Brahmos missile attack” appears to be a rabble rouser. ATTACK? Really?

Pray tell me what did Modi achieve with his "Sir-Ji Kal" strikes which was nothing more than a clearing operation along LOC & something IA immediately informed PA of so that there was no escalation? What was the 26 Feb 2019 drama? Also, the natak of 'accidental routine maintenance launch'? Each one of these was a senseless provocation for the sake of rallying idiots to support Modi politically. There was NO strategic anything involved in any of these.

You just need to get off your high horse & smell the droppings. India is both belligerent & stupid in how it conducts itself vis-a-vis Pakistan & other neighbors. Radical view of such incidents is important & makes sense from the security perspective. Why should Pakistan assume best of intentions from India? Are we best buddies or something? You must think that the whole thing is a joke.

The heading of the thread is exactly how it should be. You need to check your assumptions before you go too far along the train tracks.

 

[VkdIndian]

What was the 26 Feb 2019 drama?

26 th feb was in retaliation to Pulwama. I request you not go into false flag etc because there is no end to that debate.

Why should Pakistan assume best of intentions from India?

It has the choice of not to. Luckily, the people who matter didn’t take it too far (seems as of now).
Moreover, it was an unintentional launch and reading intentions in that may not be the best course of action. It gave Pakistan a golden opportunity to gain some brownie points diplomatically. And they did try to raise to discomfiture of India.

There was NO strategic anything involved in any of these.

No Sir. It changed the way Pakistan can expect a retaliation if another Pulwama happens. Pakistan got the message and it got conveyed to the world community too that times have changed now. Again a request of not to get into if the bombs fell on trees or a building. It was a massive shift in Indian policy on material support by Pakistan to cessationists in Kashmir.

Are we best buddies or something? You must think that the whole thing is a joke.

No one is asking it to be treated like a joke. But it shouldn’t be treated like a impending nuclear holocaust too. Pakistan learnt few things about the launch, trajectory, parts of missile etc and got a chance to get an apology from an Delhi. That’s more than enough for what it was.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Thank you @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ . I believe people are discounting how disgruntled the minorities are in India. Modi’s win in UP proves that his ideological shift will be quickly towards hindutva. This would mean he will alienate 20% of the populous.

Indias economy is already hurting and this hurt will increase over the next 3 years. See China will ask for economical concessions in return for military restraint in the Russian conflict. This would mean limited growth in India. Modi will use this to hit Pakistan to reinforce his strong man credentials. The question is how hard will Pakistan hit back. I hope extremely hard. We have a chance to free kashmir

k

How does China asking for concessions restrain the Indian economy?

 

[Khan vilatey]

How does China asking for concessions restrain the Indian economy?

The Indian economy today has two major exports pharmaceuticals and back office outsourcing . Their industrial output is dismal for a country of their size and population. If China forces the west to be the manufacturing hub for low and high technology output , Indian dreams of capturing this market to increase their exports is dashed. This means their economy will stagnate creating social issues.

We can create a separate thread to speak in detail as I don’t want to derail this thread
k

 

[Chak Bamu]

26 th feb was in retaliation to Pulwama. I request you not go into false flag etc because there is no end to that debate.

It has the choice of not to. Luckily, the people who matter didn’t take it too far (seems as of now).
Moreover, it was an unintentional launch and reading intentions in that may not be the best course of action. It gave Pakistan a golden opportunity to gain some brownie points diplomatically. And they did try to raise to discomfiture of India.


No Sir. It changed the way Pakistan can expect a retaliation if another Pulwama happens. Pakistan got the message and it got conveyed to the world community too that times have changed now. Again a request of not to get into if the bombs fell on trees or a building. It was a massive shift in Indian policy on material support by Pakistan to cessationists in Kashmir.

No one is asking it to be treated like a joke. But it shouldn’t be treated like a impending nuclear holocaust too. Pakistan learnt few things about the launch, trajectory, parts of missile etc and got a chance to get an apology from an Delhi. That’s more than enough for what it was.

Your expectations of what is good enough for Pakistan are meaningless.

Pakistan can not take any explanation from India at face value.

Brownie points & Indian discomfiture are irrelevant in context of security.

The massive shift in Indian policy supposes that Pakistan would do nothing in retaliation. That is a false & dangerous assumption to say the least. This is brinksmanship.