Strategic implications of the Brahmos missile attack

[Khan vilatey]

I believe India is planning a cold start attack

Facts we have determined

• The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

• As it flies at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today. The missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

• The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

• India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

• It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

• Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command

• Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmos

• Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid and worked more on this later

• We know India is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
  • The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters
  • Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan
  • Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently
  • India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts

• India knows that past April due to harvest, heat and then monsoon which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver. Pakistani conflicts with India have happened in the winter months ,1965, 1971,1999, 2019…

• Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization

• India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

• Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.

• Pakistani government is distracted due to political issues

• Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tying up Pakistani forces in the north west

• India is not suicidal and would not risk the lives of 1.4 billion Indians to test a weapon in Pakistan as a nuclear response by Pakistan could devastate India.

What I believed happened

I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.


What I think Pakistan needs to do

• Use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
• India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Conference is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
• Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
• Air Defenses should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
• We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
• Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.

Summary:

I believe that India is planning a cold start like attack. The objective of Cold start is to take some Pakistani Territory to force Pakistan to give concessions. India has been conducting exercises like submarine infiltration, cancelation of air force exercises, special forces parachute insertion etc. in recent days.

The failed test of the Brahmose missile was a test in these series of preparedness exercises. Since this required higher realism test that went south due to the incompetence of the Indian forces. The Pakistani air defense response was near perfect as from our perspective this could have been one of many salvos and the focus during this missile launch would have been I assume to get aircraft up in preparation of Indian airstrikes and denying air superiority to the enemy. I speak more about this above. A lot of weakness of Indian non nuclear capable cruise missile have come to light including a detectability due to a higher flight profile , limited range ,relatively low accuracy , low maneuverability , very small payload etc.

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.

What we now need to do is prepare for a limited war.



Your opinion is welcome

@Chak Bamu

K

 

[GriffinsRule]

Unlikely and who will hold the escalation ladder? Limited war is great in theory but not in practice. Also those dwindling spares from Russia will only make the matters worse post conflict so why would Pakistan be content with a limited war when clearly supply chain issues will impact them a lot more than us.

 

[Luosifen]

I feel if India threatens CPEC, China is going to get involved in someway, previously China didn't have as much national strength to make big moves unlike today.

 

[Khan vilatey]

Unlikely and who will hold the escalation ladder? Limited war is great in theory but not in practice. Also those dwindling spares from Russia will only make the matters worse post conflict so why would Pakistan be content with a limited war when clearly supply chain issues will impact them a lot more than us.

clarification, i think India is planning a limited war, Pakistan should plan for a long difficult war since we all know India will not be able to achieve anything in a limited conflict. a division level attack of about 25k indian troops ( part of their cold start doctrine ) will result in complete loss for India. Once India will lose it would then require to put in all its regular forces.

k

 

[fitpOsitive]

I believe India is planning a cold start attack

Facts we have determined

• The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

• As it flies at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today. The missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

• The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

• India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

• It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

• Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command

• Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmos

• Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid and worked more on this later

• We know India is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
  • The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters
  • Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan
  • Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently
  • India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts

• India knows that past April due to harvest, heat and then monsoon which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver. Pakistani conflicts with India have happened in the winter months ,1965, 1971,1999, 2019…

• Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization

• India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

• Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.

• Pakistani government is distracted due to political issues

• Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tying up Pakistani forces in the north west

• India is not suicidal and would not risk the lives of 1.4 billion Indians to test a weapon in Pakistan as a nuclear response by Pakistan could devastate India.

What I believed happened

I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.


What I think Pakistan needs to do

• Use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
• India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Conference is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
• Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
• Air Defenses should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
• We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
• Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.

Summary:

I believe that India is planning a cold start like attack. The objective of Cold start is to take some Pakistani Territory to force Pakistan to give concessions. India has been conducting exercises like submarine infiltration, cancelation of air force exercises, special forces parachute insertion etc. in recent days.

The failed test of the Brahmose missile was a test in these series of preparedness exercises. Since this required higher realism test that went south due to the incompetence of the Indian forces. The Pakistani air defense response was near perfect as from our perspective this could have been one of many salvos and the focus during this missile launch would have been I assume to get aircraft up in preparation of Indian airstrikes and denying air superiority to the enemy. I speak more about this above. A lot of weakness of Indian non nuclear capable cruise missile have come to light including a detectability due to a higher flight profile , limited range ,relatively low accuracy , low maneuverability , very small payload etc.

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.

What we now need to do is prepare for a limited war.



Your opinion is welcome

@Chak Bamu

K

It was a probe attack, and Pakistan passed that with flying colors. No strategic information revealed.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Again a good effort. Do tag seniors so that they may share their thoughts.

While I think that we must always be prepared for any misadventure from India, we must consider the following points:

1. We must not take steps that tell the world that a war is imminent. This impacts investor confidence, increases insurance premiums, reduces tourism, and associates a country with general instability. So, whatever we do, must be done quietly and without fan-fare.

2. The best line of defense is diplomacy combined with a calm show of strength to show self-assurance & confidence. Many a crisis are averted with this approach - case in point is Gen Zia-ul-Haq's visit to India to watch cricket match when tensions were high & Pakistan was preparing to face an Indian attack.

3. If the army is focused on its role, political instability's impact on defensive capability is manageable. It is a big IF in case of Pakistan since we have often seen the opposite.

4. Indians have lost the element of surprise. They might feel adventurous, but we are prepared & have most likely updated SOPs.

5. I believe that Cold Start Doctrine has outlived its usefulness since Pakistan has had many years to adjust military preparedness & stance accordingly. Nasr is an example in this case.

6. India has a long-standing policy to keep Pakistan at an edge so that we deploy a much greater percentage of our resources on defense. This is to India's comparative advantage, since such a reaction from Pakistan has many internal impacts on economy, political stability, Human Development Index, & other long term effects.

In conclusion, I believe that Pakistan must be prepared, but not cross certain thresholds that may send wrong signals & waste resources. What ever that we do, must be done quietly & effectively. Indians would be made to know that Cold Start will not be a walk in the park.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

I

I believe India is planning a cold start attack

Facts we have determined

• The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

• As it flies at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today. The missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

• The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

• India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

• It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

• Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command

• Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmos

• Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid and worked more on this later

• We know India is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
  • The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters
  • Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan
  • Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently
  • India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts

• India knows that past April due to harvest, heat and then monsoon which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver. Pakistani conflicts with India have happened in the winter months ,1965, 1971,1999, 2019…

• Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization

• India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

• Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.

• Pakistani government is distracted due to political issues

• Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tying up Pakistani forces in the north west

• India is not suicidal and would not risk the lives of 1.4 billion Indians to test a weapon in Pakistan as a nuclear response by Pakistan could devastate India.

What I believed happened

I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.


What I think Pakistan needs to do

• Use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
• India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Conference is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
• Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
• Air Defenses should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
• We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
• Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.

Summary:

I believe that India is planning a cold start like attack. The objective of Cold start is to take some Pakistani Territory to force Pakistan to give concessions. India has been conducting exercises like submarine infiltration, cancelation of air force exercises, special forces parachute insertion etc. in recent days.

The failed test of the Brahmose missile was a test in these series of preparedness exercises. Since this required higher realism test that went south due to the incompetence of the Indian forces. The Pakistani air defense response was near perfect as from our perspective this could have been one of many salvos and the focus during this missile launch would have been I assume to get aircraft up in preparation of Indian airstrikes and denying air superiority to the enemy. I speak more about this above. A lot of weakness of Indian non nuclear capable cruise missile have come to light including a detectability due to a higher flight profile , limited range ,relatively low accuracy , low maneuverability , very small payload etc.

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.

What we now need to do is prepare for a limited war.



Your opinion is welcome

@Chak Bamu

K

I want to know did Pakistan ever conducted a mock for such a situation in past. And in that mock what would the response look like if evidence points towards an act of aggression regardless by a rogue group inside Indian Army or Indian Army itself.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

I believe India is planning a cold start attack

Facts we have determined

• The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

• As it flies at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today. The missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

• The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

• India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

• It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

• Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command

• Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmos

• Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid and worked more on this later

• We know India is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
  • The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters
  • Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan
  • Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently
  • India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts

• India knows that past April due to harvest, heat and then monsoon which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver. Pakistani conflicts with India have happened in the winter months ,1965, 1971,1999, 2019…

• Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization

• India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

• Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.

• Pakistani government is distracted due to political issues

• Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tying up Pakistani forces in the north west

• India is not suicidal and would not risk the lives of 1.4 billion Indians to test a weapon in Pakistan as a nuclear response by Pakistan could devastate India.

What I believed happened

I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.


What I think Pakistan needs to do

• Use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
• India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Conference is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
• Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
• Air Defenses should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
• We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
• Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.

Summary:

I believe that India is planning a cold start like attack. The objective of Cold start is to take some Pakistani Territory to force Pakistan to give concessions. India has been conducting exercises like submarine infiltration, cancelation of air force exercises, special forces parachute insertion etc. in recent days.

The failed test of the Brahmose missile was a test in these series of preparedness exercises. Since this required higher realism test that went south due to the incompetence of the Indian forces. The Pakistani air defense response was near perfect as from our perspective this could have been one of many salvos and the focus during this missile launch would have been I assume to get aircraft up in preparation of Indian airstrikes and denying air superiority to the enemy. I speak more about this above. A lot of weakness of Indian non nuclear capable cruise missile have come to light including a detectability due to a higher flight profile , limited range ,relatively low accuracy , low maneuverability , very small payload etc.

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.

What we now need to do is prepare for a limited war.



Your opinion is welcome

@Chak Bamu

K

Both Pakistani establishment and Modi are lackeys of the US.

So forget about India & Pakistan fighting any wars in the foreseeable future.

 

[Meliodas]

I believe India is planning a cold start attack

Facts we have determined

• The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

• As it flies at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today. The missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

• The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

• India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

• It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

• Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command

• Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmos

• Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid and worked more on this later

• We know India is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
  • The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters
  • Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan
  • Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently
  • India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts

• India knows that past April due to harvest, heat and then monsoon which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver. Pakistani conflicts with India have happened in the winter months ,1965, 1971,1999, 2019…

• Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization

• India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

• Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.

• Pakistani government is distracted due to political issues

• Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tying up Pakistani forces in the north west

• India is not suicidal and would not risk the lives of 1.4 billion Indians to test a weapon in Pakistan as a nuclear response by Pakistan could devastate India.

What I believed happened

I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.


What I think Pakistan needs to do

• Use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
• India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Conference is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
• Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
• Air Defenses should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
• We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
• Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.

Summary:

I believe that India is planning a cold start like attack. The objective of Cold start is to take some Pakistani Territory to force Pakistan to give concessions. India has been conducting exercises like submarine infiltration, cancelation of air force exercises, special forces parachute insertion etc. in recent days.

The failed test of the Brahmose missile was a test in these series of preparedness exercises. Since this required higher realism test that went south due to the incompetence of the Indian forces. The Pakistani air defense response was near perfect as from our perspective this could have been one of many salvos and the focus during this missile launch would have been I assume to get aircraft up in preparation of Indian airstrikes and denying air superiority to the enemy. I speak more about this above. A lot of weakness of Indian non nuclear capable cruise missile have come to light including a detectability due to a higher flight profile , limited range ,relatively low accuracy , low maneuverability , very small payload etc.

I have my doubts on whether the missile was shot down or not by Pakistan since it crashed very curiously 63 km away from PAF Rafique , 33 km form Bahawalpur, in a relatively low habitable outskirts of Mian Chanu this may be a wise ploy to hide capability.

What we now need to do is prepare for a limited war.



Your opinion is welcome

@Chak Bamu

K

If anything that russo-ukrain or azebijan-armenia conflict has taught us is that strategic assets are just trophies real deciding factors will be will of the people, manpads and drones.

Reference to facts, tracking and intercepting are different things, Pakistan not engaging the incoming missile doesn't prove or disprove pa ability to stop such missiles.

 

[Path-Finder]

I feel if India threatens CPEC, China is going to get involved in someway, previously China didn't have as much national strength to make big moves unlike today.

that's exactly it, Sino power has arrived on the global stage and it will challenge the status quo.

 

[Turingsage]

it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight

This was a accidental launch during maintenance. We do not know the details and the missile may have had no coordinates or navigation way points or links to satellites switched programed or switched on.

If this were not the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon

Brahmos DOES NOT have self destruct. It cannot be self destructed. You could possibly drive it into the ground. Possibly.

It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

This was NOT a actual launch in anger or a test. None of this would apply if the missile was not PREPPED with all the above. THERE WAS NO PREP AS THIS WAS NOT A TEST OR A REAL LAUNCH

The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters

Subs often infiltrate into hostile waters. Russia , the US , UK have been doing it for DECADES

India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.

That means India will be naked and Pakistan army can finally do its Gazwa e Hind or whatever you dream of nightly.
Just think all your Christmases are about to come true. It will be a walkover.
Brahmos is actually made in India.

 

[SQ8]

This was a accidental launch during maintenance. We do not know the details and the missile may have had no coordinates or navigation way points or links to satellites switched programed or switched on.



Brahmos DOES NOT have self destruct. It cannot be self destructed. You could possibly drive it into the ground. Possibly.


This was NOT a actual launch in anger or a test. None of this would apply if the missile was not PREPPED with all the above. THERE WAS NO PREP AS THIS WAS NOT A TEST OR A REAL LAUNCH


Subs often infiltrate into hostile waters. Russia , the US , UK have been doing it for DECADES



That means India will be naked and Pakistan army can finally do its Gazwa e Hind or whatever you dream of nightly.
Just think all your Christmases are about to come true. It will be a walkover.
Brahmos is actually made in India.

Yes, this was not an actual launch
The missile just decided to fly a very specific route on its own.

 

[Khan vilatey]

Both Pakistani establishment and Modi are lackeys of the US.

So forget about India & Pakistan fighting any wars in the foreseeable future.

February 2019 was the last contact…. India is still engaged in Ladakh…. This is an unrealistic position you have as evidence speaks different

K

 

[Erroroverload]

There is no such thing as limited war between two atomic powers. it will be an all out war. if there are casualties on one side or damage to strategic locations, this will not limit the opponent to wait and see, they will retaliate with double or more than double the damage they receive. cold start was just a rhetoric and to impress indian public that we can infiltrate pakistan.

 

[K_Bin_W]

I believe India is planning a cold start attack

I don't think India is suicidal - It knows the response it will get. But then saffron fanatics climbing up the latter anything is possible.