Steady progress in building ASEAN Economic Community

[kalu_miah]

First, I understand completely what you are saying. However, my previous post counter the points you made.
If it's an economic alliance you are looking for, there is no need to form an alliance. A free trade between the countries are just as good.
NATO has article 5, but will ASEAN country have something simiar? If Vietnam starts a war with China, will all the ASEAN countries jump in and aid VN? I can tell you that this alliance will only benefit Vietnam, Pinoys and Japanese. It will not benefit BD for the reasons I've mentioned. Every single ASEAN countries you mentioned are "me" first "you" last.

There is no clear leader to lead the ASEAN alliance. On top of that you have animosity and mistrust amongst members. SK doesn't like/ trust Japan. SG don't trust VN or Malaysia., etc.

At the end of the day, the politicians will toast each other in front of cameras but will back stab one another in order to get an edge over the other. That is why China is not worried about this alliance because it's not going to work in the real world.

The military alliance we were discussing is different from ASEAN. It will include some ASEAN and some non-ASEAN countries, you may want to look at these posts for reference:
Steady progress in building ASEAN Economic Community | Page 3
Steady progress in building ASEAN Economic Community | Page 3
Steady progress in building ASEAN Economic Community | Page 3
Steady progress in building ASEAN Economic Community | Page 4

 

[DarkElf]

What do you think about the proposal to made something like ASEAN Standby Forces? something more like military and security cooperation intra ASEAN in which i like to translated into multidisciplinary peacekeeping force with military, police and civilian contingents that acts under the direction of the ASEAN. The Asean Security Forces is to be deployed in times of crisis not only in ASEAN, but globally too. This way we can avoid to having any dominance country to implement their wish into organizations and push more cooperation from smaller countries. And there is reflecting on Tsunami crisis and Malaysian airplane search fiasco, made me thinking it would be nice if ASEAN have such a tools to coordinate all of the efforts, and made this more efficient

It's the logical next step, but let's wait how the Pasar Bebas Asean/MEA work first.

Like I said, if a country has the misfortune of having a leader that is a warmonger or makes irrational decisions, there is a chance that a war could ignite. For example, had Aquino voiced supported the militants that attacked Lahad Datu, the least-worst outcome is that Philippines and Malaysian would have their diplomatic relations severed and the worst would be a war which would be fought in some areas of the Philippines' southern island of Mindanao.

By the same reasoning, there is a chance that in the next election, Hitler mk. 2 can rise to power in German and declare war to Russia again, but i won't hold my breath waiting for it.

More possible scenario, if Aquino quietly support the militant and give covert help (money, gun, etc) while denied his involvement. In return Malaysia government give similar support to Philliphine Muslim rebel (MILF,etc). At the same time both country act that nothing happen.

 

[Cossack25A1]

It's the logical next step, but let's wait how the Pasar Bebas Asean/MEA work first.



By the same reasoning, there is a chance that in the next election, Hitler mk. 2 can rise to power in German and declare war to Russia again, but i won't hold my breath waiting for it.

More possible scenario, if Aquino quietly support the militant and give covert help (money, gun, etc) while denied his involvement. In return Malaysia government give similar support to Philliphine Muslim rebel (MILF,etc). At the same time both country act that nothing happen.

It is up to the German people or more likely someone else in Europe if they want that to happen or not, Greece managed to elect the Golden Dawn into their parliament.

Aquino would have done that but if the situation had gone out of control, he would start to play the blame game, as he had always done from 2010.

 

[DarkElf]

It is up to the German people or more likely someone else in Europe if they want that to happen or not, Greece managed to elect the Golden Dawn into their parliament.

Aquino would have done that but if the situation had gone out of control, he would start to play the blame game, as he had always done from 2010.

Did the Greek declare war against Turkey or anyone else because of it?

Seriously anything can happen, tomorrow a comet can strike the earth, mega earthquake can destroy the earth completely, gold become worthless, Canada declare war against USA, but how big is the chance for it to happen?

 

[Cossack25A1]

Did the Greek declare war against Turkey or anyone else because of it?

Seriously anything can happen, tomorrow a comet can strike the earth, mega earthquake can destroy the earth completely, gold become worthless, Canada declare war against USA, but how big is the chance for it to happen?

For now no wars have been fought, but who know what kind of propaganda will they espouse in the future unless. People could be moderate now and extremist tomorrow or extremist now, moderate tomorrow. I just hope that no one is going to select the "easy" way out specially since Greece elected Golden Dawn due to the recession. As for ASEAN, the only trouble here are the territorial disputes with the VN-China tensions growing uncertain.

The chances are small but one small irrational decision could change everything, whether the change happens in an instant or slowly progresses into something with negative consequences.

 

[NiceGuy]

Therefore, for me, an ASEAN's Nato does not sound. Why would we have to die for Vietnam's conflict with China when we were saved by China in the past? You can read VN expansionist comments in this thread. What do you think? You think you are far away? That means you are far away from ASEAN. Suppose Myanmar has a war with BD, do we need to die for Myanmar? Suppose Indonesia has a military conflict with US' back Australia, do we have to send our tiny naval fleets to fight for Indonesia against US will?

Bro, we dont need ur poor trained-poor discipline soldiers to fight for VN, just give us more support in the conflict with China, thats enough.

No VNese believe ur Gay soldiers can fight in real war, bro

Yes, the whole SCS issue is not about occupy the whole territorial water or natural resources, why would we? It's costly and pointless to have such vast territorial water that needs constantly patrol, all we care and want is effective control of the shipping routes, if Vietnam clever enough, they should cooperate with us, they might even have all the oil and sell it to China, we have plenty of $$ that no where to spend.
after we build the canal in Thailand and the high speed train network, the whole south east Asian economy will be much more dynamic especially for vietnam. Now they have nothing. Vietnam never learn.

Why should we collaborate with u ?? lets fight, who stronger will take all. We never negotiate with any enemy in war.

Dont forget that ur economy will get a bad hurt when we cover SCS(east sea) with sea mine if war happen

 

[55100864]

Why should we collaborate with u ?? lets fight, who stronger will take all. We never negotiate with any enemy in war.

Dont forget that ur economy will get a bad hurt when we cover SCS(east sea) with sea mine if war happen

LOL, So u want dignity? there are some countries have nothing but dignity, North Korean is one example, u are free to follow.
i don't even want to spend time to play troll war with delusional people like u, if u have orgasm when dream about our fleet destroyed by sea mine, good for u

 

[UKBengali]

BD can only neutralise Indian interference by using China. There is no other way.

Some Asians wont like it but the Chinese will soon dominate the whole of Asia - there will be no way they can be stopped when they are going to be the size of TEN Japan's in 15-20 years time.

For a country like BD, China is our only hope to get rid of this Indian pest.

 

[sahaliyan]

BD can only neutralise Indian interference by using China. There is no other way.

Some Asians wont like it but the Chinese will soon dominate the whole of Asia - there will be no way they can be stopped when they are going to be the size of TEN Japan's in 15-20 years time.

For a country like BD, China is our only hope to get rid of this Indian pest.

Either you choose China or other ASEAN countries,you should build land route to those countries,you even don't need to become Chinese ally,but land route to China is needed,then you can balance the Indian influence.

 

[xunzi]

This time we are in the middle of a Pivot to Asia. The idea of the Pivot is to ensure a stable global and regional order.

If the point of this alliance is to usurp the current world order, which is challenging the power of USA hegemony, Russia Rejuvenate, and China Rise. In that case, we have no choice but to quit our non-interventionist ideal and engage in alliance ourselves. SCO will be a good platform to start although Russia-Sino have not commit to a real military defense treaty but that can change with increase threat perception. The fact SCO existed demonstrates we have an existing platform for flexible change in the global world order and security. If you ask me about the future world order. I feel it is heading that way. More regional security cooperation and alliance form as a necessity. Ganging up become common and normal now due to huge success of NATO and EU. So many continental states and region form its own bloc.

SCO bloc

Russia
China
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan

Predict members will join in the future:
Mongolia, Iran, Pakistan, Korea (unified)
Sri Lanka

If BD is smart, join SCO.

 

[mike2000]

[quot like your poiny. e="Indos, post: 5905874, member: 148143"]@Nihonjin1051

As I said before, we prefers cooperation in military hardware and defense industry if we want to help each other to contain China power, just like South Korea has done to us in the last recent years. Japan can also help us in engine development if Japan wants to use Indonesia as a buffer of China influence. It is better for Indonesia to be an honest broker in this conflict, as we know that almost every body has taken side now, but surely anything can happen in the future geopolitics.

Indonesia also has a good card in the Muslim world. And we have proved to the world that we helped Pakistan during his war, as well as Pakistan helped Indonesia during our independence war. For the mean time, we just get close to one another in defense industry sector that is just initiated recently (Turkey/Iran/Saudi). We don't know what will happen in the future but Muslim nations are always close to one another.

@Viet

We are not coward as we even has been dare to challenge British along with their follower (Aussie/New Zealand) in Malaysia soil some times ago. We did aggressive move to British, not in a defending mode like we also had in our independence war in which we won against both British and Dutch. No body can say Muslim as weak, as the world has been witnessing that Muslim men are not afraid to face battle.

List of wars involving Indonesia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



@Cossack25A1

Philippines economy is growing fast now, about 7 percent.[/quote]


I like yout point. Indonesia sure is a big country and de facto leader in ASEAN whether others like it or not. Indonesia giving its size, economy and population is bound to be the biggest country in ASEAN and leader.
However, you must be quite naive in thinking south korea will form any form of alliance with Japan against China. If there's one thing I know for sure(having been to both south korea, japan and china) is that koreans hate japan more than any nation on earth believe me(surprisingly for me they hate japan even more than the chinese hate japan.lol).
South korea will never form an alliance with Japan to contain china, if anythjng they see japan as their main threat/ennemy. and south korea have more trade with china than even with Japan and U. S. Unfortunately for us thats the case.
So no, south korea didnt help you militarily because they want you to contain China, more like they are looking to get more dollars from you to improve their own defence industry and make their weapons more competitive. The only country that prevents south korea from joining china against japan is the U.S who is still the master of both korea and japan. So of anything you people in asia should be praying the U.S remains strong for the forseeable future (instead of wishing for a U.S demise/Withdrawal from this region like i have seen some of you wishing for). because to be honest, the U.S is the only country stopping China from dominating Asia totally. There are many countries in this region who wouldnt mind joining china if not for the U.S presence. So if anything asians should hope/wish the U.S to stay there as the main dominant power/hegemon for stability and peace.
However even with this, the U.S will never go to war with China, no matter the situation. There is just simply too much for the U.S to loose since both countries have MAD, same reason why U.S will never go to war with ruasia despite russia's obvious aggressiveness in eastern europe. If anything a war in asia between china and some Asean counties like phillipines, vietnam or japan will lead to china retaking all the remaining islands in SCS that it doesnt already own/control. There might be some little sanctions by our governments against China in this case (just like with Russia), but they will be minimal sanctions which wont affect our investments there much and vice versa. In geo politics each country interests comes first. We simply have too much economic interdependence already to go to war with them for some little islands or whatever.
So overall. I dont see any ASEAN military or even economic alliance in near future, these countries simply have too many differences among themselves from territorial disputes/differences to the big disparity in economic wealth. Some countries are developed like singapore while others are poorer than some african countries like vietnam and laos etc. in this case economic intergration like E.U or NATO is unviable. You should know that rich countries/regions tend to be rather hostile or even racist towards poorer countries/regions, for example Hong Kong being developed already despise some of their own brothers from the mainland and even worst immigrants from filipines, vietnam,indonesia etc, same with some singaporeans towards some Malaysians/indonesian immigrants and same with Japanese towards some of their Asian 'BROTHERS' who they still consider as a little inferior to them.
Im not unsulting any country. Im just making a point/observation. I always try and make rational comments and avoid being biased as much as I can.
In conclusion I still think the U.S presence in ASIA is still neccessary for stability. Though it wont stop china from rising (which is inevitable) but it will limit china acting as a hegemon for a while.

 

[sahaliyan]

If the point of this alliance is to usurp the current world order, which is challenging the power of USA hegemony, Russia Rejuvenate, and China Rise. In that case, we have no choice but to quit our non-interventionist ideal and engage in alliance ourselves. SCO will be a good platform to start although Russia-Sino have not commit to a real military defense treaty but that can change with increase threat perception. The fact SCO existed demonstrates we have an existing platform for flexible change in the global world order and security. If you ask me about the future world order. I feel it is heading that way. More regional security cooperation and alliance form as a necessity. Ganging up become common and normal now due to huge success of NATO and EU. So many continental states and region form its own bloc.

SCO bloc

Russia
China
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan

Predict members will join in the future:
Mongolia, Iran, Pakistan, Korea (unified)
Sri Lanka

If BD is smart, join SCO.

If Pakistan join SCO,then to balance the Chinese influence,the Russians surely will invite the Indians join SCO

 

[xunzi]

If Pakistan join SCO,then to balance the Chinese influence,the Russians surely will invite the Indians join SCO

That is one of the major issue currently and can derail the potential of SCO and why neither are accepted thus far to join.

 

[55100864]

That is one of the major issue currently and can derail the potential of SCO and why neither are accepted thus far to join.

SCO is a joke, merely functioning, and it is purely about energy security and counter terro, currently, only energy security is achieved, don't expect countries like Tajikistan and Kazakhstan to play any role in counter terro. SCO can't become a military alliance, and we don't need to, we are pretty invincible in land, we need to build a blue water navy.

 

[Nike]

If Pakistan join SCO,then to balance the Chinese influence,the Russians surely will invite the Indians join SCO

@xunzi @mike2000 @kalu_miah @UKBengali @Nihonjin1051 and anyone else, sorry to interupt

first, as the thread suggest we should made some limitations in scope of our discussions. Several comments has broaden too far from the main topics from what OP intended when starting this discussions.

Second, we are talking about ASEAN as an organizations and their steady progress although all of us know ASEAN is far from perfect and has several weakness, limiting their scope of cooperation and usefulness for some cases. So the main discussion should be stick around ASEAN as the main subject of this discussion

Third, any discussion about ASEAN we must knowing beforehand what kind of limitations they had, what kind of history they have before all of those countries starting to build ASEAN, knowing the background of each member countries and their main important partners especially the three countries Japan, South Korea and China as those three country and ASEAN comprises the most important elements of Asia Pacific countries besides USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (in which they are what we calling Anglo Pacific Bloc). And surely we must know the regulations and play rule within ASEAN as organizations before we are talking about the next steps integration of ASEAN countries into what we called mature community neighbor organizations like European Union.

and then i will say thanks for all of your participation