Solution to Sino-India logjam

[Steakhouse]

The Dalai Lama is a highly revered spiritual leader and is accorded the respect he deserves. Politically he has no clout and 0 say in India's foreign affairs.

There is no chance in hell that India will ever 'conspire with the US to invade China and take Tibet' ..that's just crazy talk.

Can't never say never, Saddam got no Nuclear weapons but US lied to invaded Irag. It would crazy to think a nation got invade over a lie.

 

[Armstrong]

You're right, it seems extremely unlikely.

The best chance was in 1960, when China was at the weakest point in our history. At that time we were right in the middle of our worst ever famine (Great leap forward), as well as being surrounded by two enemy superpowers. Having fought directly against the US + 16 of her allies during the Korean War, and in the middle of the Sino-Soviet split with the USSR.

That was the point where we were willing to make more territorial compromises, due to our extremely weak position, both internally and externally. Zhou Enlai's offer was borne out of the sheer desperation of those times.

But today, China is no longer in a desperate situation. Hell our currency reserves alone are around $4 trillion, as much as the rest of the world combined.

The chance was missed, but I don't believe India was ever really interested in any sort of compromise with either AP or Aksai Chin, so I guess nothing was lost.

@Genesis promised me that I could have Aksai Chin to open up my own golf course and private resort !

Are you going to stand against that ?

 

[Viet]

China gets, South East Asia ( myanmar, thailand, vietnam), Philippines, Mongolia, Japan and Korea.
Russia gets Kazakhstan, western Europe (Excluding Poland, czech republic, austria and balkans), Black Sea, Arctic, Caspian and their littorals.

you forget to add the Moon and Pluto into the list.

 

[AgentOrange]

The Dalai Lama already admitted that Tibet is a part of China, around a decade ago.

His position now is that he wants "more autonomy" for Tibet.

So their Dalai Lama card is now worthless, since the Dalai Lama, as well as the American and Indian governments (and all other governments in the world) already recognize Tibet as a part of China.

No government in the entire world recognizes Tibet as an independent country. Not a single one.

I'd like to expound a little more on your comment regarding the Dalai Lama. Unofficially it's been Chinese policy since roughly 2009 to basically ignore the Dalai Lama and wait for him to die. Ever since his implicit support for the Tibet race riots in 2008, China has refused to acknowledge his existence. And it's working. Even a yapping chihuahua will quiet down if you ignore it for long enough and that's exactly what has happened.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

OK some clarifications for my plan.

Firstly, I am not asking for imperial domains, with exclusive relations with the central power of that domain. Absolutely not. What I am asking for is that the BRIC countries recognize these spheres of influence, which essentially has more to do with strategic ties. These spheres of influence should not be declared, but acted upon secretly. There already are major recognized spheres of influence. Hence, countries as large as these (BRIC) can help each other out to establish defacto strategic control potential (not actual administrative control) over these areas.

For example, assuming that this sphere of influence is indeed set-up in understanding between countries. Even if this information becomes public knowledge, the countries can't do much. Pakistan will be the most aggressive one in Indian sphere, and would immediately start developing relations with United States. So would Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to some extent. In Chinese sphere it will be, Vietnam, Japan and Philippines. But the wonderful thing about this is that US attention would be very heavily dispersed. It won't be able to deter the effective rise of all these nations, which together are pushing US out of there strategic spheres.

Also, in my spheres, the country basically just needs to understand leadership and who is the boss. Somewhat like the relationship between US and Canada.

As for business, that will be business as usual. China can maintain economic, diplomatic links with all other countries in other spheres. It is only really about military and strategic relations where China will have to defer to the regional hegemon. The regional hegemon can only sparingly use its veto in its sphere of influence for things like trade and business. But that has to be an exceptional case.

As for benefits:
For Chinese members:
I am not asking you to replace Pakistan with Tibet, which obviously would be a foolish proposal. I am asking you to replace your extremely cordial relations with Pakistan for relations with India! A country 6-7 times larger by population, yet still with a higher percapita GDP. Just imagine the opportunities that will be available to you. India today is a very attractive investor location mainly because of the huge un-utilized potential in the economy. India has deliberately kept out Chinese investment in numerous areas. All Chinese firms have a natural disadvantage while in India, due to hostility both from people and government.
A curious case in smartphones: Though Chinese smartphones are getting really popular in India, many people who are nationalistic still don't buy them. If suppose choosing a smartphone is a test, then people generally give 5-15 marks especially for Indian sets (or sets from neutral countries). This has a lot of effect. I estimate that the sale of Chinese smartphones alone would double that of today, had there been no nationalistic stigma regarding this. Not to mention whole big sectors of the economy where China is simply debarred.
Pakistan on the other hand, wouldn't really have any option simply because they are not a country with a reasonably big market to have any major domestic firms competing. Pakistan business of China will continue with perhaps a decline of 15% due to antagonism. But this will be much more compensated with relations with India.
Also, it will also be good to finally put to end your biggest secessionist movement, wouldn't it?

Another huge advantage for China is that both the largest countries in Asia, Russia and India, that could have been potentially used to contain China, will not only be friendly, they will work with China to break off United States shackles themselves. Also just imagine the impact a BRIC sanction will have over any country!

It will essentially in one stroke devoid someone of half the global market! Especially in Asia if China and India get together no one will want to piss off this behemoth that will be Chindia.

Not only this we can also give Indonesia its own space by giving them Malaysia, Singapore and Oceania.

We don't support your rebels, even India doesn't think we do.



First dropping a country as an ally is insane, nobody would do it. Second, mature countries don't need that, we never asked India to stop going for Vietnam, or America to cease alliance with Asian countries.

Second, Tibet is ours regardless of the Lama or Indian recognition, and aside from the fact you already recognize it, even if you don't it'll have no effect. That's like saying if China doesn't think Gao is part of India it wouldn't be.

So essentially, you are suggesting we do something that would severely harm not only our interests, reputation, for pretty much nothing.




I can get behind this and probably will happen.



Also acceptable and on our way to do so.



These are all sovereign countries dude, you can't just divide them up like the old imperials. The days of sphere of influence is over, get with the program, it's the globalization era.

China will do business as it suits us, and India must do the same.



Again, it's essentially guaranteed already, who dares to disrupt global trade, the answer is not even America.



I neither object nor support this, as I don't think it's a big deal either way.

Com'on dude!
One of the biggest fears of China is to protect their trading routes. This is a good way to do that.
For rest refer to post above.

OP is having a wishful thinking moment.

First of all, no country would stop any relation to another country just because they want to make up with another one.

Then how do you supposed a land swap? Just relingish control of a bit of land? What about the citizens , the people within those region? Its not just granting them passport that simple?

Yes other countries don't need to stop relations with other countries. Not even other BRIC countries. As I explained above, this largely a strategic sphere, with a strategic projection of force.

Land swap- The areas I have mentioned are all completely unhabitable with negligible population. Also, mostly we are not talking about any real land swaps. Aksai Chin and Arunachal (though they literally have no people) are already under defacto control of the power that I am refering to. Dumbi valley and Area until Kailash have again no people, except for troops.

Andaman and Nicobar have a population of 300k. That is insignificant, and can be easily assuaged with passports who would like to change nationality, and money who would wanna come back. Similar arrangements have been made numerous times.

are you seriously comparing Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation state of 200 million ppl, with Tibet, an Autonomous Region (Province) which China has full control of? this 'trade off' doesn't make any sense.
you overestimated Dalai and his government's influence. they simply do not worth that much. Once the current Dalai dies from old age we'll immediately have a new one in Tibet who is loyal to Beijing.
and as China's interest goes global, the importance of China-Pakistan relationship will only grow. besides i doubt India has the capability to stop 'the entire Tibet thing' since the Western support is also involved.

And that's why leaving Tibet will be a big step in solid partnership. Once you abandon Pakistan, you will definitely face loss of credibility, and Pakistan will be seriously pissed off. But so will the tibetans and the whole western liberal community. It will just give a no-return start to a solid relationship. Also as I said earlier, You are not exchanging Pakistan for Tibet, you are exchanging Pakistan for India.

So benefit for you guys,
1. Permanent stop on Tibet secessionism.
2. The fury for abandoning Tibet will fall on india.
3. Solid relationship with India
4. Safe trade and shipping routes in IOR
5. No chance to contain China
6. Diffusion of US military and efforts, and a combined effort to push back

Also, you guys should look ahead in the future. India is a big country and even if it does horribly, it will still have major influence in IOR and SAARC. And by the way, India hasn't done badly either. It is just that China has just done brilliantly well. We will continue to grow at a rate of 7% average for the next 20 years atleast. The past growth rate fall in between 2012 to 2014 was due to governance issues, and some specific problems which are the subject of a different post altogether. India will have a destiny to arise and play a very substantial role in IOR and SAARC to stay the very least.

Finally, let us, the only real ancient civilizations re-unite for a common goal.

 

[Etilla]

When dalai lama dies it will be a problem of succession.

China will select its own lama and Tibet/in exile will select its own

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

When dalai lama dies it will be a problem of succession.

China will select its own lama and Tibet/in exile will select its own

No you don't know the process.

Dalai Lama is a title given by the Mongol emperor of the Yuan dynasty, i.e. it was a Chinese title given to Tibetans. The way it works, as far as I know, the Panchen Lama chooses the Dalai Lama. You just don't do it randomly. The Panchen Lama is already under Chinese influence, so China will get to choose the next Dalai.

Hence, this is the reason the Dalai Lama has proclaimed that he won't be "reborn" again. His strategy is to dilute the power and legitimacy of the future Dalai Lama.

China gets, South East Asia ( myanmar, thailand, vietnam), Philippines, Mongolia, Japan and Korea.
Russia gets Kazakhstan, western Europe (Excluding Poland, czech republic, austria and balkans), Black Sea, Arctic, Caspian and their littorals.

you forget to add the Moon and Pluto into the list.

Actually the spheres of influence are not really large. Quite logical given the history, proximity, strategic and cultural aspects of each case. Each country gets roughly a third of its population in its sphere.
e.g.
China population - 1.4 billion gets
Japan 126m
Korea 74 m
Vietnam 90m
Thailand 66m
Myanmar 50m
Cambodia 15m
Laos 6m
Phillippines 100m
Mongolia 2m


Around 500m people. or around a third of size.

 

[Echo_419]

We don't support your rebels, even India doesn't think we do.



First dropping a country as an ally is insane, nobody would do it. Second, mature countries don't need that, we never asked India to stop going for Vietnam, or America to cease alliance with Asian countries.

Second, Tibet is ours regardless of the Lama or Indian recognition, and aside from the fact you already recognize it, even if you don't it'll have no effect. That's like saying if China doesn't think Gao is part of India it wouldn't be.

So essentially, you are suggesting we do something that would severely harm not only our interests, reputation, for pretty much nothing.




I can get behind this and probably will happen.



Also acceptable and on our way to do so.



These are all sovereign countries dude, you can't just divide them up like the old imperials. The days of sphere of influence is over, get with the program, it's the globalization era.

China will do business as it suits us, and India must do the same.



Again, it's essentially guaranteed already, who dares to disrupt global trade, the answer is not even America.



I neither object nor support this, as I don't think it's a big deal either way.

He is new to the forum go easy on him,give him a couple of days & then see his views

You're right, it seems extremely unlikely.

The best chance was in 1960, when China was at the weakest point in our history. At that time we were right in the middle of our worst ever famine (Great leap forward), as well as being surrounded by two enemy superpowers. Having fought directly against the US + 16 of her allies during the Korean War, and in the middle of the Sino-Soviet split with the USSR.

That was the point where we were willing to make more territorial compromises, due to our extremely weak position, both internally and externally. Zhou Enlai's offer was borne out of the sheer desperation of those times.

But today, China is no longer in a desperate situation. Hell our currency reserves alone are around $4 trillion, as much as the rest of the world combined.

The chance was missed, but I don't believe India was ever really interested in any sort of compromise with either AP or Aksai Chin, so I guess nothing was lost.

Nothing is lost We still control AP & you have Aksai Chin under your control,so the only option to the border dispute can still be selected

@Genesis promised me that I could have Aksai Chin to open up my own golf course and private resort !

Are you going to stand against that ?

Gensis ki Baarat mein aye ho kya

 

[Kaniska]

I do not think that any reconciliation is possible in near century, although I wish to...Although many Indian people that Pakistan is a factor for India to think likewise about China, rather i feel that China in general is aggressive towards its all neighour, and in specific, China never settles anything with any one in equal terms rather if any nation is weak then it is easier for them to settle any dispute. So as long as India try to be and expect relation based on equality, border dispute will remain as it is...

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

I do not think that any reconciliation is possible in near century, although I wish to...Although many Indian people that Pakistan is a factor for India to think likewise about China, rather i feel that China in general is aggressive towards its all neighour, and in specific, China never settles anything with any one in equal terms rather if any nation is weak then it is easier for them to settle any dispute. So as long as India try to be and expect relation based on equality, border dispute will remain as it is...

This is patently wrong. Just see their resolution of disputes with Myanmar, Stan nations, even Mongolia. They were all good.

 

[Kaniska]

This is patently wrong. Just see their resolution of disputes with Myanmar, Stan nations, even Mongolia. They were all good.

Because those nation does not challenge China in any aspect...where as India is not with the same category as Monglia and Burma...There lies the difference..

 

[Pakistani shaheens]

If india wants good relation with China then it should give up on AP and should stop claimming over others areas (I mean Tibet which was never part of india)

OK some clarifications for my plan.

Firstly, I am not asking for imperial domains, with exclusive relations with the central power of that domain. Absolutely not. What I am asking for is that the BRIC countries recognize these spheres of influence, which essentially has more to do with strategic ties. These spheres of influence should not be declared, but acted upon secretly. There already are major recognized spheres of influence. Hence, countries as large as these (BRIC) can help each other out to establish defacto strategic control potential (not actual administrative control) over these areas.

For example, assuming that this sphere of influence is indeed set-up in understanding between countries. Even if this information becomes public knowledge, the countries can't do much. Pakistan will be the most aggressive one in Indian sphere, and would immediately start developing relations with United States. So would Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to some extent. In Chinese sphere it will be, Vietnam, Japan and Philippines. But the wonderful thing about this is that US attention would be very heavily dispersed. It won't be able to deter the effective rise of all these nations, which together are pushing US out of there strategic spheres.

Also, in my spheres, the country basically just needs to understand leadership and who is the boss. Somewhat like the relationship between US and Canada.

As for business, that will be business as usual. China can maintain economic, diplomatic links with all other countries in other spheres. It is only really about military and strategic relations where China will have to defer to the regional hegemon. The regional hegemon can only sparingly use its veto in its sphere of influence for things like trade and business. But that has to be an exceptional case.

As for benefits:
For Chinese members:
I am not asking you to replace Pakistan with Tibet, which obviously would be a foolish proposal. I am asking you to replace your extremely cordial relations with Pakistan for relations with India! A country 6-7 times larger by population, yet still with a higher percapita GDP. Just imagine the opportunities that will be available to you. India today is a very attractive investor location mainly because of the huge un-utilized potential in the economy. India has deliberately kept out Chinese investment in numerous areas. All Chinese firms have a natural disadvantage while in India, due to hostility both from people and government.
A curious case in smartphones: Though Chinese smartphones are getting really popular in India, many people who are nationalistic still don't buy them. If suppose choosing a smartphone is a test, then people generally give 5-15 marks especially for Indian sets (or sets from neutral countries). This has a lot of effect. I estimate that the sale of Chinese smartphones alone would double that of today, had there been no nationalistic stigma regarding this. Not to mention whole big sectors of the economy where China is simply debarred.
Pakistan on the other hand, wouldn't really have any option simply because they are not a country with a reasonably big market to have any major domestic firms competing. Pakistan business of China will continue with perhaps a decline of 15% due to antagonism. But this will be much more compensated with relations with India.
Also, it will also be good to finally put to end your biggest secessionist movement, wouldn't it?

Another huge advantage for China is that both the largest countries in Asia, Russia and India, that could have been potentially used to contain China, will not only be friendly, they will work with China to break off United States shackles themselves. Also just imagine the impact a BRIC sanction will have over any country!

It will essentially in one stroke devoid someone of half the global market! Especially in Asia if China and India get together no one will want to piss off this behemoth that will be Chindia.

Not only this we can also give Indonesia its own space by giving them Malaysia, Singapore and Oceania.




Com'on dude!
One of the biggest fears of China is to protect their trading routes. This is a good way to do that.
For rest refer to post above.



Yes other countries don't need to stop relations with other countries. Not even other BRIC countries. As I explained above, this largely a strategic sphere, with a strategic projection of force.

Land swap- The areas I have mentioned are all completely unhabitable with negligible population. Also, mostly we are not talking about any real land swaps. Aksai Chin and Arunachal (though they literally have no people) are already under defacto control of the power that I am refering to. Dumbi valley and Area until Kailash have again no people, except for troops.

Andaman and Nicobar have a population of 300k. That is insignificant, and can be easily assuaged with passports who would like to change nationality, and money who would wanna come back. Similar arrangements have been made numerous times.



And that's why leaving Tibet will be a big step in solid partnership. Once you abandon Pakistan, you will definitely face loss of credibility, and Pakistan will be seriously pissed off. But so will the tibetans and the whole western liberal community. It will just give a no-return start to a solid relationship. Also as I said earlier, You are not exchanging Pakistan for Tibet, you are exchanging Pakistan for India.

So benefit for you guys,
1. Permanent stop on Tibet secessionism.
2. The fury for abandoning Tibet will fall on india.
3. Solid relationship with India
4. Safe trade and shipping routes in IOR
5. No chance to contain China
6. Diffusion of US military and efforts, and a combined effort to push back

Also, you guys should look ahead in the future. India is a big country and even if it does horribly, it will still have major influence in IOR and SAARC. And by the way, India hasn't done badly either. It is just that China has just done brilliantly well. We will continue to grow at a rate of 7% average for the next 20 years atleast. The past growth rate fall in between 2012 to 2014 was due to governance issues, and some specific problems which are the subject of a different post altogether. India will have a destiny to arise and play a very substantial role in IOR and SAARC to stay the very least.

Finally, let us, the only real ancient civilizations re-unite for a common goal.

so that means you guys have picked USA over russia? Is this the policy of your country? Do you think it's right policy to cut ones self completely from one country inorder to strengthen relation with other? If this is what you think then I am afraid it's a bad policy and sheer stupidity.

 

[Sasquatch]

Hello Everyone!



Challenges faced today: (Differences)

Indian complaints:
1. Relationship with Pakistan
The most important difference and source of friction.
2. Relationship with other countries in Indian vicinity that is used as leverage against India by both China and those countries. Case in hand - SriLanka, String of Pearls
3. Border Problem
4. Territorial Problem with Arunachal and Aksai
5. Support for North-Eastern Rebels
6. Damming of rivers in Tibet, fears regarding that, and general fears regarding Tibet.

China:
1. Active support and existence of Tibet Government-in-Exile in Dharamshala.
2. Claims and Stance on Tibet.
3. Border and Territorial Issues.
4. Threat of disruption of supply routes in Indian Ocean
5. Indian unwillingness for China to enter the region
6. Perceived support for containment of China

I have done a lot of research on this topic which is very dear to my heart. I have read a lot about Sino-Indian relations, the 62 war etc. I perceive it to be a case of misfortunes, misunderstandings and tragedies. I seriously want these two ancient civilizations to come together and make a strategic alliance to deter the west.

What is my proposal?

Broadly it is the division of strategic spheres between major countries in BRIC to make it a formal grouping of developed countries who have been excluded in the formation of international rules.

Firstly, specifically these things are needed to be done:
1. China needs to give up Pakistan completely and totally. That will be painful as it is a big strategic ally, where support for China is across the whole spectrum of country. India in return will have to give up totally and utterly the whole Tibetan thing. Remove Dalai Lama and his government publicly, stop support to Tibet, persecute anyone who have refugee status right now, and explain the general public that they have been lied to, and that Tibet has always been under Chinese influence. Both of the actions are irreversible.

2. China needs to give up Arunachal (Southern Tibet) and India needs to give up Aksai Chin. The rest of the border won't be that much a big deal.

3. BRIC will be strengthened as a grouping with shared interests to create a multi-polar acceptable world with recognized spheres of influence.

So basically, India will have the whole of SAARC, Iran, IOR littoral seas (only upto a certain limit, not whole IOR) and a decent level of Arabia.
China gets, South East Asia ( myanmar, thailand, vietnam), Philippines, Mongolia, Japan and Korea.
Russia gets Kazakhstan, western Europe (Excluding Poland, czech republic, austria and balkans), Black Sea, Arctic, Caspian and their littorals.
Brazil gets South America.

We all can then jointly push against western hegemony, and their interference in our region.

4. Each of the BRIC countries will guarantee the other country free passage for trade in its own sphere of influence.

Additional Note:
I think it would also be preferable to exchange Andaman and Nicobar, for Kailash Mansarovar region and Dumbi Valley, largely because a lot of irredentism toward Tibet comes due to those, which are the biggest Hindu spots. This will be beneficial to both the countries.

For India it will take away the biggest 2 headaches of the proximity of Chinese forces to northern plains especially Delhi, and the vulnerability of the Siliguri corridor. It will also give us access to the Tibetan Plateau.

For China, Andaman will give them valuable way to handle South-east asia, and protect their trade routes. Also, it will help convince Indians by taking the only emotional attachment they have to Tibet, by separating the issue of Kailash from Tibet.

It will be a good bet for both countries. Also, in this exchange India will not give Andaman's EEZ to China, which will make the size of andaman and nicobar + territorial waters less than the area from uttrakhand till kailash and dumbi valley.


What thoughts do you guys have?

1.Pakistan can't be given up, it connects to the Arabian sea and it's going to be the route for future oil supplies. Our energy supplies is not for negotiation.

As for India with the housing the Dalai Lama and exile Tibetans not an issue anymore. China can simply flood Tibet with Han Chinese to change the demographs, end the tibetan problem overnight. Once the Lama dies we can install our own Lama or end the system if we need to.

2. Aksai China for Arunachal/South Tibet can be done, China can give South Tibet up for full renegotiation of Aksai Chin.

3. Yes.

4. Yes.

Some additional issues, Sting of Pearls was never about India or to contain it, just our waterway routes. China doesn't support rebels in the North East they get support from local populations with weapons coming from the black market.

Finally Water and Dams in Tibet, China has never signed any water treaty and opposed the UN water rules, dams will continue to be built. What is it you seek on the dam and water issue ?

 

[Keel]

1. Pakistan is not for trade period
2. We want both viz Aksai Chin and South Tibet.
If the Chicken Neck brothers want to join our big family, we'll welcome them with open arms
3. Dalai Lama will soon be a historical figure. His successors are ruining Dalai's legacy. The living conditions in Dharamsala is deteriorating. Live and let live.
4. As far as BRICS, just follow BRICS protocols
5. Sri Lankan's national religion is the same as our religion with the largest number of followers: Buddhism
Buddhism is the minor among minority religions in India
6. Majority of Muslims live peacefully in China
7. Good luck to our friendship

 

[bolo]

1. Pakistan is not for trade period
2. We want both viz Aksai Chin and South Tibet.
If the Chicken Neck brothers want to join our big family, we'll welcome them with open arms
3. Dalai Lama will soon be a historical figure. His successors are ruining Dalai's legacy. The living conditions in Dharamsala is deteriorating. Live and let live.
4. As far as BRICS, just follow BRICS protocols
5. Sri Lankan's national religion is the same as our religion with the largest number of followers: Buddhism
Buddhism is the minor among minority religions in India
6. Majority of Muslims live peaceful in China
6. Good luck for our friendship

This thread is too funny to ignore . Damn, Indian think China is still like 1962. China will not not give up AK for south Tibet. For peace along the border, India will need to give up south Tibet without China giving up AK. There's no other way.