So much for your team selection Kaptaan Sahib

[fitpOsitive]

Eight months into the PTI government and the economic situation is faltering. To be fair, they inherited that economy, which was in more sh!t than an Indian beach. But but but people have short memories. You can't expect people belonging to a country with a dismal literacy rate to understand the dynamics of the current account deficit and the steps needed to improve your fiscal situation.

Imran Khan chose Asad Umer to be his finance minister. Asad Umer knew in 2016 what we were heading towards. Asad Umer knew years in advance that he would be the finance minister if PTI comes into power. Asad Umer must have crunched the numbers and should have known how much would we need to plug the gap. Asad Umer initially refused to go the IMF, in the name of the saving people from the very same tough measures he was later forced to take. The economy went sluggish without a bailout.

He is going for that bail out now. Those first seven months have been an absolute waste. Running a financial institution means timing is absolutely crucial and there was failure to realise that. Asad Umer so far clearly seems out of his debt. The recovery that should have shown signs of happening by the end of this year is nowhere in sight. We might see more devaluation and in real terms a recession next year.
~

Punjab is critical for PTI. With the current state of the economy and replacing someone like SS, you needed a person who has the Dil jigra to introduce much needed reforms in Punjab. Those reforms would be in the Police , Health and Education sector. The KPK success showed that people seeing change in the thana culture of Police or their local health centers would give you a chance on the economy. But IK chooses Usman Buzdar. IK chose Usman Buzdar because he came to him and demanded a hospital. That was his only qualification. That 30 minute talk with him was enough for IK to decide to delegate the hopes of a 100 million to this man. Well this man as expected has been a spectacular failure. No sign of any major reforms in health, education or police.

~

PTI had absolute majority in the KPK assembly. 5 years of experience and a solid foundation to build around its success from 2013-2018. But IK buckling under pressure from Pencil Khattack chooses another nobody and least qualified to be CM, Mehmood Khan. Rather than build on the major reforms, the new CM has become the face of the BRT disaster.

~

IK has done well in his personal capacity especially on the foreign policy front. He was really good during the skirmish with India. We might not know living in the defence.pk bubble but his success or downfall will depend on his performance on the domestic front. That means people in these three critical positions performing.

This hasn't happened and if the whole IK experiment doesn't work, it would all come down to his poor team selection.

Imran Khan may be sincere. But to handle the current situation in Pakistan, a different personality material is required. And different team too.
Its like, a mechanical Engineer on software engineering job. No matter how much mechanical guy is sincere, he simply cant do much.
Same goes with Asad Omer.
Is mulk ki taqdeer Election se nahi, selection se badlygi.
Aisy mistri chahiay hain jo machine kholky, greasing kerky, faulty parts remove kerky aisa khara karain wapas, keh aik dafa chabi ghumany pe gari start ho(or dhuaan bhi kam mary).
Baqi rahy naam Allah ka.

 

[Fledgingwings]

Let him do his job.

 

[maximuswarrior]

Eight months into the PTI government and the economic situation is faltering. To be fair, they inherited that economy, which was in more sh!t than an Indian beach. But but but people have short memories. You can't expect people belonging to a country with a dismal literacy rate to understand the dynamics of the current account deficit and the steps needed to improve your fiscal situation.

Imran Khan chose Asad Umer to be his finance minister. Asad Umer knew in 2016 what we were heading towards. Asad Umer knew years in advance that he would be the finance minister if PTI comes into power. Asad Umer must have crunched the numbers and should have known how much would we need to plug the gap. Asad Umer initially refused to go the IMF, in the name of the saving people from the very same tough measures he was later forced to take. The economy went sluggish without a bailout.

He is going for that bail out now. Those first seven months have been an absolute waste. Running a financial institution means timing is absolutely crucial and there was failure to realise that. Asad Umer so far clearly seems out of his debt. The recovery that should have shown signs of happening by the end of this year is nowhere in sight. We might see more devaluation and in real terms a recession next year.
~

Punjab is critical for PTI. With the current state of the economy and replacing someone like SS, you needed a person who has the Dil jigra to introduce much needed reforms in Punjab. Those reforms would be in the Police , Health and Education sector. The KPK success showed that people seeing change in the thana culture of Police or their local health centers would give you a chance on the economy. But IK chooses Usman Buzdar. IK chose Usman Buzdar because he came to him and demanded a hospital. That was his only qualification. That 30 minute talk with him was enough for IK to decide to delegate the hopes of a 100 million to this man. Well this man as expected has been a spectacular failure. No sign of any major reforms in health, education or police.

~

PTI had absolute majority in the KPK assembly. 5 years of experience and a solid foundation to build around its success from 2013-2018. But IK buckling under pressure from Pencil Khattack chooses another nobody and least qualified to be CM, Mehmood Khan. Rather than build on the major reforms, the new CM has become the face of the BRT disaster.

~

IK has done well in his personal capacity especially on the foreign policy front. He was really good during the skirmish with India. We might not know living in the defence.pk bubble but his success or downfall will depend on his performance on the domestic front. That means people in these three critical positions performing.

This hasn't happened and if the whole IK experiment doesn't work, it would all come down to his poor team selection.

There is a day and night difference when you go to IMF without any aces up your sleeve as opposed to going to IMF when you have billions of bailout packages from friendly nations. The IMF conditions would be much more favorable because the loan package from IMF should be smaller.

It doesn’t matter who is leading as a finance minister. Ishaq Dar and his predecessors have wrecked the Pak economy beyond recognition. This much has become crystal clear now. We knew the damage was substantial, but we didn’t know exactly how severe. We do know now.

Every person who becomes a finance minister of Pakistan is going to be unpopular. He will be hated and his policies will be ridiculed. There are no immediate fixes. This mess can only be cleaned up in the long haul. I think that the new government is on the right path with their long term strategy. We will only witness the results in years to come. People are impatient and want easy solutions.

Oh my naive countryman, still believing that 'we' elect the 'selected'.

The elected cheated their way to success by rigging. That is no secret.

I have zero problems with a selection that has better chance of success for Pakistan.

When is Nawazoo bringing back the looted wealth?

 

[Solomon2]

We as a nation once faced hardships for getting a nuclear bomb and to get better economically we can do it once more.

Don't be fooled. The "hardships" you cite largely consisted of diverting U.S. aid meant for the Afghan mujaheddin to Pakistan's bomb program and delays and cancellations of foreign weapon deliveries to Pakistan, plus the diversion of technical talent from the domestic business and academic sector to bomb-making at home and foreign remittances from abroad. None of these involved structural changes that threaten entrenched interests.

 

[Winchester]

True. I could not help myself but grin on hearing the reasons.

But could this be the reason? By having a nobody like Buzdar - a nobody IK can use him to remote manage the province??? Buzdar's weak ability gives the PM leverage. Don't forget Sharif overcame this problem having his brother sat in Lahore. As you said PM's powers post 18th are so weakened that he realy only is foreign policy czar which even has heavy military input.

If CM of Punjab was capable he might reduce PM IK to just running taffic in Islamabad and foreign visits and meeting international leaders ~ which even is cramping into the President Alivi's position. I tell you PPP really fcuked up Pakistan. A bit more and honestly it might be better to just dissolve the federation and be done with it.

The only hope now is a Presidential system but with PTI having depending on a coalition I can't see them being able to amend the constitution unless we see some sort of coup by PM IK with Bajwa backing him but even that would cause chaos and bring international condemnation that the country cannot afford.

The tragedy of our times is IK is too late to power. He is old with his best years behind him and clock ticking. In addition he takes over a office that has been pretty well holowed out by 18th amendment. Ideally we could have done with President IK in early 2000s when Musharaf was flapping around. But alas ....

We are at the bottom of the pit if all our hopes and dreams are connected to one well-intentioned person. That is a very very dangerous road.

Now as far as the suitability of the Presidential System for a country like Pakistan, I am not sure it is the magic wand that we are hoping it is.

My first issue is the ethnic fissures in Pakistan are too much to get everyone to agree on it. It is just too much of a risk for a multi-ethnic federation like Pakistan. With a Presidential system, you will just have Punjabis deciding who rules Pakistan. This has the potential like what happened in Yugoslavia, to have one group trying to completely dominate and other smaller groups then reacting back.

Like it or not the Parliamentary System at least holds dictatorial instincts in check. The best bet is remove the 18th amendment and get back to the 73 constitution in its original form.

My second issue is the problem of governance in Pakistan is both top-down but also bottom-up. A Presidential system will perhaps improve the top-down situation but at the base we still will have the same issues. A good example is Nigeria, it is a Presidential form of government and for the last five years President Buhari has being touted as non-corrupt but governance in Nigeria has not improved.

I know you like to present Turkey as an example but it is completely a different society with a different outlook and different social dynamics. Remember they have one other major ethnic group that is the Kurds and look at the issues they have with them.

I believe Asad Umar more capable and sharp he is genius.
Punjab is running by different personalities, Tareen, Shahbaz Gill, Governor, Choudhries, Aleem Khan ( Group ) and “‘Buzdar “
But What I more believe the key decision making on important issue doing by IK himself and I doubt advises by spiritual partner also involved in key issues ( mano ya na mano )
Its not fault of Asad problems are somewhere else.

No one is questioning the harsh steps, the issue is the timing of the bailout.

Why the unnecessary delay?

Especially considering the key IMF demand of keeping the Rupee at a free market rate was implemented even when the bailout was not taken.

Imran Khan may be sincere. But to handle the current situation in Pakistan, a different personality material is required. And different team too.
Its like, a mechanical Engineer on software engineering job. No matter how much mechanical guy is sincere, he simply cant do much.
Same goes with Asad Omer.
Is mulk ki taqdeer Election se nahi, selection se badlygi.
Aisy mistri chahiay hain jo machine kholky, greasing kerky, faulty parts remove kerky aisa khara karain wapas, keh aik dafa chabi ghumany pe gari start ho(or dhuaan bhi kam mary).
Baqi rahy naam Allah ka.

There is no easy solution.

Khud Karna hi Ga aur awam Ku Karna hu ga.....pehle ju mistri aye hn dkh lya h un ka haal aur capability.

 

[fitpOsitive]

We are at the bottom of the pit if all our hopes and dreams are connected to one well-intentioned person. That is a very very dangerous road.

Now as far as the suitability of the Presidential System for a country like Pakistan, I am not sure it is the magic wand that we are hoping it is.

My first issue is the ethnic fissures in Pakistan are too much to get everyone to agree on it. It is just too much of a risk for a multi-ethnic federation like Pakistan. With a Presidential system, you will just have Punjabis deciding who rules Pakistan. This has the potential like what happened in Yugoslavia, to have one group trying to completely dominate and other smaller groups then reacting back.

Like it or not the Parliamentary System at least holds dictatorial instincts in check. The best bet is remove the 18th amendment and get back to the 73 constitution in its original form.

My second issue is the problem of governance in Pakistan is both top-down but also bottom-up. A Presidential system will perhaps improve the top-down situation but at the base we still will have the same issues. A good example is Nigeria, it is a Presidential form of government and for the last five years President Buhari has being touted as non-corrupt but governance in Nigeria has not improved.

I know you like to present Turkey as an example but it is completely a different society with a different outlook and different social dynamics. Remember they have one other major ethnic group that is the Kurds and look at the issues they have with them.



No one is questioning the harsh steps, the issue is the timing of the bailout.

Why the unnecessary delay?

Especially considering the key IMF demand of keeping the Rupee at a free market rate was implemented even when the bailout was not taken.



There is no easy solution.

Khud Karna hi Ga aur awam Ku Karna hu ga.....pehle ju mistri aye hn dkh lya h un ka haal aur capability.

We need a powerful institution that overhaul over system. Right from judiciary to armed forces.
That's for sure that, vote, can't form that institution. Someone else must do that.

 

[Progressive Conservative]

Asad Umar's actions over the past 8 months have been pretty smart. Pakistan is in a stronger position now to negotiate with the IMF. Since the elections, Pakistan has secured $6BN from Saudi and UAE in the form of central bank deposits and a recent $2BN soft "loan" from China. That means the concessions regarding cuts in government spending that the IMF will insist on will not be as brutal as they would have been before.

 

[Musafir117]

May Be was waiting for looted money to back in treasury? Was expecting more tax collections? May Be that’s why they starting immunity scheme. IMF was on table since day one but was avoided to get as low as they can.
Something ( plans ) miscalculated due to above reasons or else.
@Winchester

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

PML was left in an even tougher spot by the previous PPP Government and yet PML came out doing wonders.

The PMLN did not come out 'doing wonders', if they had the Pakistani economy would not be in the position it is currently.

PMLN showed a significant improvement because of two things:

1. A significant improvement in domestic security due to military operations
2. A significant amount of investment from China via CPEC.

Security continues to improve, but you can't expect unlimited investments under CPEC. Nor is infrastructure investment some kind of 'magic wand' that boosts the domestic economy significantly beyond the actual construction phase. Even as a kid I remember hearing the tall claims Nawaz Sharif made about the Lahore-Islamabad motorway (my dad was a news junkie and always dragged me into watching, listening & reading the news with him), how it would bring about massive investment and an economic boom, and wondered how exactly that was expected to work without an expansion in the domestic industrial base. Do we really think industries are just sitting around for a motorway to be created before expanding?

Yes, transport infrastructure helps in improving connectivity and reducing logistical costs, but the more critical issues are less obvious - reducing red tape for new businesses, investments and expansion. Offering incentives for domestic startups. Improving energy supply, improving the education sector (both higher education and vocational training) - and a lot of this is tied to revenue generation, because you can't spend more on these areas without a proportional increase in revenues.

And let's not forget the farmers of Pakistan - we are still a primarily agrarian country, and our farm productivity and yields have struggled to keep up with the rest of the world.