Small asian countries pay the price if a Sino-US pact on the South China Sea is reached

[Tiqiu]

A very interesting article from the Strait times of Singapore looking at China's tactics in South-east Asia so far and pondering the prospect of a Sino-US pact on the South China Sea ahead the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday.
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-chinas-salami-slicing-in-south-china-sea-is-bad-news

Some highlights of the article:
But what is worrying is an implicit agreement between China and the US over the South China Sea. Dr Michael Swaine, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said such an understanding would centre on the US not staking its credibility on ensuring that a non-coercive process is followed in the South China Sea; China would privately state that the area within the nine-dash line is open ocean.

If this happens, smaller Asian nations would rue the costs. As Singapore's veteran diplomat, Mr Bilahari Kausikan, notes, small countries would "pay the price" when big countries reach an agreement. Think Taiwan in the 1970s, when it was at the losing end of Sino-American rapprochement.

A Sino-US compact chills the bone, but it is not unthinkable. Speaking at a private function last year, a senior Chinese diplomat said that South-east Asian governments would face adverse consequences if they continued to criticise China's South China Sea activities.

This could take the form of reduced Chinese investment and the possibility of a Sino-American agreement on the South China Sea, say Dr Tim Huxley and Dr Benjamin Schreer, writing in the January edition of the IISS journal Survival.

 

[Tiqiu]

The Press Statement of the assistant Secretary and Department Spokesperson, Bureau of Public Affairs ,Washington, DC,May 30, 2016:

"Secretary Kerry will travel to Beijing, China, June 5–7. Secretary Kerry and U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jacob J. Lew, as President Obama’s Special Representatives, will join their respective Chinese co-chairs, State Councilor Yang Jiechi and Vice Premier Wang Yang, as President Xi’s Special Representatives, along with members of the U.S. delegation and their Chinese colleagues for the eighth U.S.–China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED).

The Dialogue will focus on the challenges and opportunities that both countries face on a wide range of bilateral, regional, and global areas of immediate and long-term economic and strategic interest.

Secretary Kerry will also join Chinese Vice Premier Liu Yandong for the seventh annual U.S.–China Consultation on People-to-People Exchange (CPE), to be held concurrently with the S&ED. The CPE promotes and strengthens people-to-people ties between the United States and China in the fields of education, culture, science and technology, sports, women’s issues, and health. It provides a high-level annual forum for government and private-sector representatives to discuss cooperation on exchanges in a broad, strategic manner."

 

[cochine]

The leaders of Southeast Asian nations recently took the extraordinary step of warning China that its island-building activities in the contested South China Sea "may undermine peace, security and stability" in the region.

That's strong language from the usually reticent 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and shows just how high tempers are flaring over what has been called China's "great wall of sand" in a strategically important area.

The commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Harry Harris, has described China's island enhancement program as part of a "pattern of provocative actions" towards smaller South China Sea states.

source from CNN

 

[Pandora]

Now that Americns have actively involved indians and japanese in SCS affairs they will leave them hangging dry. A deal between Americans and Chinese is inevitable.

 

[ahojunk]

A very interesting article from the Strait times of Singapore looking at China's tactics in South-east Asia so far and pondering the prospect of a Sino-US pact on the South China Sea ahead the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday.
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-chinas-salami-slicing-in-south-china-sea-is-bad-news

Some highlights of the article:
But what is worrying is an implicit agreement between China and the US over the South China Sea. Dr Michael Swaine, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said such an understanding would centre on the US not staking its credibility on ensuring that a non-coercive process is followed in the South China Sea; China would privately state that the area within the nine-dash line is open ocean.

If this happens, smaller Asian nations would rue the costs. As Singapore's veteran diplomat, Mr Bilahari Kausikan, notes, small countries would "pay the price" when big countries reach an agreement. Think Taiwan in the 1970s, when it was at the losing end of Sino-American rapprochement.

A Sino-US compact chills the bone, but it is not unthinkable. Speaking at a private function last year, a senior Chinese diplomat said that South-east Asian governments would face adverse consequences if they continued to criticise China's South China Sea activities.

This could take the form of reduced Chinese investment and the possibility of a Sino-American agreement on the South China Sea, say Dr Tim Huxley and Dr Benjamin Schreer, writing in the January edition of the IISS journal Survival.

View attachment 308529

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I am not surprise at all.

* when two elephants fight the grass get trampled,
* when they patch up and make love, the grass get crushed.

Just stay out of the way of these two elephants. Or maintain equi-distance to get the maximum benefits.

At the nation level, there are no permanent allies but only permanent interests, "their interests".

When China and US get together for the "U.S.–China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED)", they will be focusing on how to maximize their respective interests. If anyone thinks they will be considering the interests of Australia or SEA, they will be badly mistaken.

I hate this, but this is how the world works!

 

[BoQ77]

That's why 10 countries combined into ASEAN, 10 economies become AEC

 

[C130]

a deal should happen between U.S/China

China get's all of SCS, but U.S also get's freedom of navigation

could also make a deal where China invades NK removing Mad Kim and U.S lets China take over Republic of China in return.

then we make trade deals and investments in each others countries.

Trump will surely make this happen

 

[jammersat]

sounds more like those libertarians than trump

 

[ahtan_china]

a deal should happen between U.S/China

China get's all of SCS, but U.S also get's freedom of navigation

could also make a deal where China invades NK removing Mad Kim and U.S lets China take over Republic of China in return.

then we make trade deals and investments in each others countries.

Trump will surely make this happen

Western political: the small country just is a cake of big country! It is real world.

 

[Zero_wing]

Wow spoken like true imperial

 

[hirobo2]

In the real political world, there is only the G2 (secret pact), which supersedes the G7. I think anyone who's been following the SCS can already sense there is some sort of conspiracy between the G2.

Basically, what the US wants is to get nations to ratify the TPP. They will only achieve this end if they make use of the "China threat" to push nations onto the TPP train.

On the other hand, China wants total control of the SCS, ie. via an ADIZ.

There is some sort of agreement between US & China below the surface. China will help US by posing as her "enemy", in return US must help China obtain legitimate reasons for an ADIZ,etc...

I mean just look at the East Sea ADIZ. Japan would never have obeyed it, if Uncle Sam didn't urge them to after a while. That's the kind of help US is providing China in exchange for playing along with the "China threat"...

Also, remember, this is the same US that helped China expel the Japanese during WWII, and the same US that destroyed the financial system soon after Beijing Olympics in 2008 to FORCE billions of ppl to save up and buy cheap stuff from China. Go look at China's GDP expansion rate, it was the fastest (compared to recent annual figures) right after this financial disaster that shook the whole world!

 

[barbarosa]

Thera kiya ho ga kalliya, Mudaee soost awar gawah choost. USA leaved some countries in open battle field and runaway.

 

[Sanchez]

UK was the driver for the most territory conflicts in Asia in the past. US is the one now creating hot spots in the region.

 

[C130]

UK was the driver for the most territory conflicts in Asia in the past. US is the one now creating hot spots in the region.

aren't you forgetting communism?

let's name a few.

China takes over Tibet
USSR conquests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_occupations_by_the_Soviet_Union
Communist attacks on South Korea and South Vietnam
Communist expansion into Africa and Latin America


it takes two to tango. two sides to a coin.

 

[rott]

Wow spoken like true imperial

And you're welcome.