Sleeping dragon no more: China about to replace US as strongest naval power and Washington is too la

[beijingwalker]

Macarthur used to think he can take the whole Korea before Christmas of the year, but he ended up being fired. US always has a problem of being overconfident about their military might, that's what made them suffer tremendously in Korea and Vietnam, I hope they don't miscalculate over China in the future.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

It’s the time to panic...

 

[YeBeWarned]

So, you reckon Chinese Navy can't sail to Western United States but US Navy can easily sail to Eastern China?

View attachment 600369​

Now point out how many USA bases and assets exists in the area shown in your posted map , USN has a advantage of military bases and keep Chinese Navy engage from multiple direction , why do you think USA is scared of Chinese Islands in South China sea ? Once they are ready and bases there operational USN will not be able to cross it without been hit by Chinese Coastal Batteries or Long range hyper-sonic missiles . For now China will have hard time attacking USA from the North Pacific because these Bases will harass any Large formation of PLAAN ships , hit and run along with work as Prior warning station and then US will have enough time to prepare for Chinese Attack, The fact remains that USA circles China via its allies and military bases but China does not have that Luxury .

 

[Viet]

It’s the time to panic...

No, the most interesting time because other in the region including Vietnam and Japan step up military buildup. Chinese build ships. Do they believe other don’t?

 

[BringHarmony]

"Taking out" SAR and optical SSO constellations in a theater specific setting is not a trivial proposition, you do know that right? Not to mention the fact that in a conventional war scenario the US would probably not even want to go there for obvious reasons (collisional cascading, even larger dependence on space assets and substandard QR capabilities).

You are assuming kinetic kill. Thats not the only option. US has significant investment in "soft kill" weapons due to cold war preparations. And yes, US can indeed take out or disable all or most of Chinese Optical SSO and SAR (they are actually present in common sats, AFAIK).

Even if the assertion is correct though, you are talking about one possible aspect of mid-course guidance. In theory, the AShBM systems China fields can also use OTH and CEC sources for that, and of course have built in radar and optical terminal guidance.

Its not the mid course I am concerned. Its the terminal guidance. Remember, you are trying to hit a moving, if not maneuvering target. I am loss about the following:
1. How OTH/CEC can provide terminal guidance? It can detect fleets alright but how will you relay that to a warhead already in sub-orbit? Remember, you have lost most of your sat fleet.

2. Radar based terminal guidance? You mean AHR in a ballistic warhead to hit a moving ship. If that is the lone guidance left to you, then good luck. BTW, AHR is susceptible to noise jamming as well. Usually with more maneuvering missiles like Exocet this is not a problem because they can home on noise. Now if you are trying to hit a carrier sized target with AHR guided ballistic warhead this problem comes back. Why? Because noise generating platform can be much much much smaller than a carrier and can be much more mobile making the entire design assumption of hitting a ship with ballsitic missile fail.


Its good to discuss all these but let me also bring the sledgehammer down on this argument for once and for all.

Counter this :

With all these arguments, Has China EVER hit a moving target on the sea with a ballistic missile? like EVER? EVEN In tests?

No. Never. And here you are, debating that how it can hit with a lot of its guidance assets disabled. In an environment which employs multiple electronic defense systems. Not to mention a capable system like Aegis. And you are calling THIS giant cluster-fluff called DF-21 a "Deterrence".

How can you build any kind of deterrence on a weapon that has never done what it bills itself to do? Its just hogwash.

 

[j20blackdragon]

Besides China does not have ability to take out all of US Sats.

If China does not have the ability, who does?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_in_spaceflight#By_country

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_in_spaceflight#By_country

 

[BringHarmony]

If China does not have the ability, who does?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_in_spaceflight#By_country

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_in_spaceflight#By_country

No one, only USA. And number of launches are meaningless. Its about ability to disable assets in space.

Macarthur used to think he can take the whole Korea before Christmas of the year, but he ended up being fired. US always has a problem of being overconfident about their military might, that's what made them suffer tremendously in Korea and Vietnam, I hope they don't miscalculate over China in the future.

Honestly, it applies to China equally. Many countries think that they can replace US. USSR tried, it lays in the basket of history.

 

[Wa Muhammada]

not proven.

acknowledge it, China still has a long way to catch up.

give another 10 years.

Unless something drastic happens, I can’t see the US lose it’s dominance in military superiority. They are way too far ahead....only if the Chinese economy becomes twice as strong as the US economy but then even that is a long shot

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Unless something drastic happens, I can’t see the US lose it’s dominance in military superiority. They are way too far ahead....only if the Chinese economy becomes twice as strong as the US economy but then even that is a long shot

it will take time.


2020 = full fleged spacepower, assuming Beidou and the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station gets laucnhed succesfully

2025 = full-fleged technological prowess, leading in 5G, AI and self-sufficient in CPU

2030 = global naval power, with at least 4 carriers and a few overseas bases


for now, i consider the PLAN to be a regional navy in its own backyard(south and east china sea/Bohai/Western pacific) and with limited power projection through the Indian Ocean to the Middle east https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti

 

[Rogue1]

Maybe 30 years. And that is if the US economy were to collapse. Only economics can kill the US like the Soviet Union. I think one US carrier group has enough firepower to turn most countries back to the stone age.

 

[j20blackdragon]

You are assuming kinetic kill. Thats not the only option.

https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Docu...r Publications/Space_Threat_V14_020119_sm.pdf

 

[BringHarmony]

https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military Power Publications/Space_Threat_V14_020119_sm.pdf

So? US has system already developed and deployed since 60s and 70s.

2025 = full-fleged technological prowess, leading in 5G, AI and self-sufficient in CPU

Here is a dirty little secret. The real power in AI is still north america, or rather Canada. Find out who discovered Deep Learning, who created first deep learning network, who did all the path breaking research in deep learning. They all end up to few persons in university of Toronto.

 

[beijingwalker]

Macarthur used to think he can take the whole Korea before Christmas of the year, When US economy was bigger than the rest of the world combined, but he ended up being fired. US always has a problem of being overconfident about their military might, that's what made them suffer tremendously in Korea and Vietnam, I hope they don't miscalculate over China in the future.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

China is way behind in most specifics, but closing the gap - rapidly. It may be another decade before parity discussions will make sense, as far as conventional assets and global reach are concerned.

Most of them are 1370 ton corvettes which are not blue water.

 

[Han Patriot]

Maybe 30 years. And that is if the US economy were to collapse. Only economics can kill the US like the Soviet Union. I think one US carrier group has enough firepower to turn most countries back to the stone age.

A full fledge war will be the end of humankind.... Doesn't matter F35 or whatever shit....