Similarities of Afghan-Soviet war & the WOT today

[53fd]

A little recap:

a) 1978 - Saur Revolution, which saw the PDPA overthrow the Daoud Khan regime

b) 1979 - Mujahideen rebels started opposing the PDPA regime, Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan.

c) 1989 - Soviets-Mujahideen war, the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, Najibullah's pro-Soviet Marxist government in power in Afghanistan.

d) 1992 - Masoud & Dostum overthrew the Najibullah regime. The Pashtun elements of the government from the South clashed against the non-Pashtun elements in the North. Masoud & Dostum won.

e) 1992-96 - There were clashes between Hekmatyar & the regime, but nothing happened. The Taliban eventually defeated the regime, & became the government.

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Let us analyze what has happened in Afghanistan:

a) 2001 - The US invades Afghanistan, installs the puppet regime of Karzai

b) 2001-2011 - US-Taliban war, the US decides an exit date of 2014, Karzai's puppet regime in power in Afghanistan.

 

[53fd]

What will happen next? The major difference between the 80s & today is that the Mujahideen in the 80s split up, & this time, it is a more cohesive unit. The Taliban will try to overthrow the Karzai regime, just like the Mujahideen tried to overthrow the Najibullah regime. What happens after that? When the Najibullah government was dissolved, the government split up sharply into Pashtun vs non-Pashtun elements, & these elements clashed.

Is the Taliban a legitimate (Pashtun nationalist) resistance movement? This is the key question.

Where have the US & Afghan Forces encountered most resistance from in Afghanistan? From the South, in Helmand & Kandahar: Pashtun strongholds. They are also the strongholds of the Taliban. In the North East & Central Afghanistan, they encountered stiff resistance from the Haqqani network, again ethnic Pashtuns. These are the regions where the US/Afghan Forces have no control over.

When the US exits, there will be clashes between the Taliban & the current regime, Pashtun vs non-Pashtun. Similar to the ones which happened when Najibullah's government was dissolved, & various Mujahideen factions clashed against one another. There were multiple parties involved in Afghanistan in the 90s (Najibullah, various Mujahideen factions), but this time, there are only two parties involved (Karzai, Taliban). The Afghan people are still heavily divided on ethnic lines, & a lot of Afghans see the Karzai regime as a US puppet, just like the Najibullah was perceived to be a Soviet puppet. In other words, the Taliban will probably find it easier to overthrow the Karzai regime once the US leaves than what the Mujahideen did overthrowing the Najibullah regime, because the Taliban is a much more cohesive unit than the Mujahideen was, & is not divided the same way the Mujahideen were.

 

[53fd]

Interesting is also the end-game that Pakistan wants. While Pakistan has not managed to burn its bridges with the Kandahari (Southern) Taliban, the Haqqani & the affiliate Taliban groups in Central Afghanistan (Paktika, Khost Taliban); it is facing trouble from the "Salafi Taliban" in Northern Afghanistan (Kunar/Nuristan). These Salafi groups in the North have strong ties with Al-Qaeda fighters, & various Arab fighters, Chechen fighters, Uzbek (IMU) fighters, ETIM & other international groups. It is also interesting to see what kind of relationship this "Salafi Taliban" has with the "Southern & Central Taliban". As Northern Afghanistan is predominantly non-Pashtun, & with the "Southern & Central Taliban" are much more Pashtun dominated (& homogeneous) as compared to the "Salafi Taliban" (which has a lot more non-Pashtun, non-local, Salafi elements in it), it is also interesting to see what kind of relationship the Afghan intelligence (& other intelligence agencies) have with these groups.

Pakistan has managed to split a lot of the "Salafi groups" in North Eastern Afghanistan & the adjacent North Western areas of Pakistan: it has managed to infiltrate into the TTP, & managed to separate Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadur from the Mehsuds. There is a lot of conflict in Kunar between different Taliban groups, predominantly the Omar Khalid group & the Mullah Fazlullah group. Then there is rivalry & conflict between the Afridi group & the Mangal Bagh (Lashkr-e-Islam) group in Tirah Valley, Khyber Agency. And there are many other similar examples in other parts of FATA.

The end game in Afghanistan is extremely intriguing.

 

[Hulk]

Big difference today.
US is going to back Afghanistan government. Their drones, some troops and Afghan forces will make sure AT cannot capture either. They will have some parts at max.

 

[53fd]

Big difference today. US is going to back Afghanistan government.

The fact is that the US & Afghanistan are trying very hard to have the Taliban in the Afghan end game talks, but they don't want to that. Even the Soviet Union before their collapse backed the Najibullah regime, but then the Najibullah regime was overthrown in 1992. Even if you look at what has happened in Iraq currently, the Maliki regime backed by Iran has managed to 'kick the US out' of Iraq.

Their drones, some troops and Afghan forces will make sure AT cannot capture either. They will have some parts at max.

The drones, & the whole WOT campaign is heavily dependent on the supply routes. The Taliban still control more than 50% of Afghanistan.

 

[boris]

One thing we should not forget is the state in which the Soviets left A'stan they did no relief work there,no construction of any sort,no development work.Neither did allies of SU do anything.

Now come back to WOT,US Army and its allies have trained a big enough Afghan army,US and its allies have spent billions in reconstruction of A'stan and have made big investments in the region.Now think of it the taliban will definitely try to destroy all this do you think NATO and allies will watch it just like that?

Now consider the Fact from an Afghan's point of view,the Soviet's fought the war in a very brutal way,they raped women and children and killed civilians in hundreds of thousands.I ask you what is the most important thing in life?It's comfort,when you are hungry,your basic necessities haven't been met,you see rules being implemented that make you doubt your identity as a human(AKA Taliban law) religion,god everything goes for a toss,I don't know how much the common Afghan hates America but I know that the common Afghan loves peace,comfort and hope for a better tomorrow which is why he/she welcomed the Taliban thinking it would provide them with all this as it was so sick of fighting.Look at it now Afghans hold jobs,own businesses,their country is seeing development they are not going to let it go away because some sick religious faction is too busy to prove that its religion is invincible and it has the right world over to kill the "infidels".

In the end I say a Communist and a democratic country fight war in a different way,their motive towards the war and also what they expect in the end is different,the democratic's have a plethora of reasons,expectations,The Communist only believes that his system be put into place again take into view the Soviets had attacked an ally to install Communism the Americans attacked a nation they believed was harboring it's worst enemies.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Interesting is also the end-game that Pakistan wants. While Pakistan has not managed to burn its bridges with the Kandahari (Southern) Taliban, the Haqqani & the affiliate Taliban groups in Central Afghanistan (Paktika, Khost Taliban); it is facing trouble from the "Salafi Taliban" in Northern Afghanistan (Kunar/Nuristan). These Salafi groups in the North have strong ties with Al-Qaeda fighters, & various Arab fighters, Chechen fighters, Uzbek (IMU) fighters, ETIM & other international groups. It is also interesting to see what kind of relationship this "Salafi Taliban" has with the "Southern & Central Taliban". As Northern Afghanistan is predominantly non-Pashtun, & with the "Southern & Central Taliban" are much more Pashtun dominated (& homogeneous) as compared to the "Salafi Taliban" (which has a lot more non-Pashtun, non-local, Salafi elements in it), it is also interesting to see what kind of relationship the Afghan intelligence (& other intelligence agencies) have with these groups.

Pakistan has managed to split a lot of the "Salafi groups" in North Eastern Afghanistan & the adjacent North Western areas of Pakistan: it has managed to infiltrate into the TTP, & managed to separate Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadur from the Mehsuds. There is a lot of conflict in Kunar between different Taliban groups, predominantly the Omar Khalid group & the Mullah Fazlullah group. Then there is rivalry & conflict between the Afridi group & the Mangal Bagh (Lashkr-e-Islam) group in Tirah Valley, Khyber Agency. And there are many other similar examples in other parts of FATA.

The end game in Afghanistan is extremely intriguing.

Notwithstanding your strenous exertions, what you speculate about is just a poorly written "Bollywood Script".

The Soviet times and now are very different. The Soviet Union had already then become a 'moth-eaten' facade and was fast becoming a caricature of a superpower. In contrast, the US of A (contrary to even fervent wishes) is nowhere near keeling over either militarily or financially or in any other way.

At that time Pakistan was piggy-backing the Taliban and had a Sugar Daddy in the form of the USA standing with an open cheque-book. Where is all that now? Nada.

The Taliban (all of it; good, bad and ugly) is very much around; only nobody really knows which part is good, bad or ugly; not even Pakistan. In any case, the good can change to bad and bad to ugly, just like that. No one can do jack about it, not even Pakistan. Why do you think that the "intrepid" Colonel and Sqn. Ldr. were fishing around there till they got "terminated with extreme prejudice". Not to write some journalism. All in all, the situation on the ground is going to remain extremely volatile. Only someone with military muscle or deep pockets can either try to threaten or buy out the warlords. And who might that be- Pakistan?

The biggest fallacy in your screen-play is the supposition is that the US is withdrawing from Afghanistan. Like "up and out"??
No way, more of the regional players/stake-holders will be introduced on the stage. Don't forget the CARs. You don't seem to be following the news. The CARs have far different role and alignment than in the Soviet era. Then there is Iran. Iran is no pushover, and will come on board even more strongly this time around. And a "special" mechanism will be devised to accommodate both Iranian and US interests. Watch for that.

Afghanistan is not cooling down any time soon, but dont forget that even (supposedly dumb illiterate) tribal people can get tired of constant bloodshed and being used as cannon-fodder.The denouemont will then be played out.

 

[53fd]

One thing we should not forget is the state in which the Soviets left A'stan they did no relief work there,no construction of any sort,no development work.Neither did allies of SU do anything.

Even various Senators & other high level senior US officials have admitted that development work in Afghanistan has failed miserably. The biggest success of the US were the ANA & the ANF.

Now come back to WOT,US Army and its allies have trained a big enough Afghan army,US and its allies have spent billions in reconstruction of A'stan and have made big investments in the region.Now think of it the taliban will definitely try to destroy all this do you think NATO and allies will watch it just like that?

Well, the Taliban have already regained & recaptured the areas they lost in the South & in the North, & it won't be surprising that this continues.

Now consider the Fact from an Afghan's point of view,the Soviet's fought the war in a very brutal way,they raped women and children and killed civilians in hundreds of thousands.

The US & NATO Forces have done exactly the same things here.

I don't know how much the common Afghan hates America but I know that the common Afghan loves peace,comfort and hope for a better tomorrow which is why he/she welcomed the Taliban thinking it would provide them with all this as it was so sick of fighting.

The common Afghan may dislike the Taliban, but at the end of the day, they are their own people. The American & NATO Forces are not their own people.

Look at it now Afghans hold jobs,own businesses,their country is seeing development they are not going to let it go away because some sick religious faction is too busy to prove that its religion is invincible and it has the right world over to kill the "infidels".

Only a certain section of Afghans (who did not oppose the invasion of their country in 2001) hold jobs, businesses etc.

 

[53fd]

Notwithstanding your strenous exertions, what you speculate about is just a poorly written "Bollywood Script".

Of course, the future has to be speculated. But the other things I have mentioned in my thread are historical (& undeniable) facts.

The Soviet times and now are very different. The Soviet Union had already then become a 'moth-eaten' facade and was fast becoming a caricature of a superpower. In contrast, the US of A (contrary to even fervent wishes) is nowhere near keeling over either militarily or financially or in any other way.

The US will be significantly reducing civilian & military assistance to Afghanistan from the next year & onwards.

The biggest fallacy in your screen-play is the supposition is that the US is withdrawing from Afghanistan. Like "up and out"??

See above statement. The Soviet Union propped up & supported the Najibullah regime from 1989 to 1992 in Afghanistan, just like the US is doing with Karzai right now. The Mujahideen were split up in factions & fighting each other as well, before they overthrew Najibullah. The Taliban isn't factionalized like that, & is a much more cohesive unit. It is only a matter of time before the Karzai regime is overthrown, which is why Karzai is so willing to bring them (which they don't want) to the table, so negotiate some kind of power sharing deal with them (the Taliban officially govern & control South Afghanistan, the current Afghan regime govern & control the rest of Afghanistan).

Then there is Iran. Iran is no pushover, and will come on board even more strongly this time around. And a "special" mechanism will be devised to accommodate both Iranian and US interests. Watch for that.

Yes, Iran has been holding secret Taliban talks as well, & has been accused of aiding the Taliban as well by both the Afghans & Americans.