opinion: Siachen — time for settlement —Brian Cloughley
It is high time there was peaceful agreement about this absurd state of affairs. India and Pakistan should withdraw their troops by mutual arrangement and leave Siachen as it was before 1984 — militarily unoccupied and valueless to all but mountaineers
The Musharraf-Vajpayee summit of 2001 took place in Delhi on 14-16 July, and there is a meeting between Prime Ministers Yousaf Raza Gilani and Manmohan Singh in Egypt today, July 16. Perhaps there is something about July that encourages discussion, but it is regrettable that little of substance has emerged from India-Pakistan dialogue in that or any other month.
Exactly twenty years ago, when Benazir Bhutto was prime minister, the armies of India and Pakistan were confronting each other in the Siachen Glacier region, but it was recorded by the International Institute for Strategic Studies that “in the face of a disheartening history of hostile relations, Bhutto is trying to navigate a smoother course with India”.
In the course of navigation, Ms Bhutto invited Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to visit Pakistan, and twenty years ago today, on July 16, 1989, she went to greet him at Islamabad Airport where she said Siachen was a difficult problem but “we will definitely take advantage of Mr Rajiv’s visit to make movement on the issue”.
Alas, there was no movement as regards Siachen or any other dispute.
The reasons for India’s invasion of Siachen in 1984 are a mystery, but a brilliant Indian analyst, Colonel (retd) Pavan Nair, wrote a penetrating study in India’s Economic and Political Weekly last March and concluded that the incursion, Operation Meghdoot, was a “strategic blunder”. (See also two excellent books about the Siachen debacle, Heights of Madness by Myra MacDonald of Reuters, and Siachen: Conflict Without End by the estimable Lieutenant General VR Raghavan.)
The Siachen conflict has shown that the countries’ leaders are unable to agree on a key matter that could be resolved by the stroke of a pen, without cost to either in terms of prestige, vital territory or national finances.
Resolution of the Siachen confrontation would save soldiers’ lives, remove significant economic penalties, and show the world that India and Pakistan can set an example in peacefully resolving a bizarre and useless quarrel. So why can’t Delhi and Islamabad bring themselves to the sticking point?
There has been no fighting in Siachen for almost five years but the toll from non-combat menaces such as avalanches and lung disease continues. As declared by retired Indian Air Force Group Captain AG Bewoor in 2003, “Siachen is not worth another dead soldier; it never was.” Now there’s a man of common sense.
As I have written elsewhere, Delhi could have made a reasonable case in international law for a claim on Siachen, but chose force rather than negotiation, thereby breaking the 1972 Simla accord. “That the two countries are resolved to settle their differences by peaceful means” — just as Pakistan violated it by invading Kargil ten years ago.
India’s claim was based on the fact that the Line of Control ended at Grid Reference NJ980420, near Kargil, further delineation being limited to the vague phrase “then north to the glaciers”. But India came to consider, twelve years after agreeing with Pakistan about the division, that because there was no formal accord governing the barren lands between the end of the Line and the Chinese border, the area should belong to India. Mrs Gandhi ordered invasion, whereupon Pakistan rushed troops to the area, but not in time to enable tactical parity.
Fighting went on, and soldiers died for nothing but the pompous pride of politicians (such a common occurrence around the world; look at Britain in Afghanistan), but in June 1989 it appeared there was agreement about Siachen, because the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan, Mr SK Singh and Mr Humayun Khan, met in Islamabad and, as reported by the BBC, “At a joint news conference Mr Khan announced that both sides have now decided to withdraw to the positions that they held at the time of the Simla Accord.” And Mr Singh publicly concurred with what was said by his counterpart.
It seemed that, at long last, senior representatives of the countries were authorised to take decisions that would pave the way for further confidence-building measures, but this was not the case.
A “clarification” was issued by India’s Ministry of External Affairs. The “chronology of events”, said a spokesman, had been “muddled and confused”. He went on to explain that “the Indian foreign secretary had endorsed the Pakistani foreign secretary’s observations on their talks, whereas the report has made out as if he had endorsed the Pakistan foreign secretary’s remarks on the defence secretaries’ talks.” Which statement was, of course, not muddled or confusing. Delhi denied “that Pakistan and India had reached an agreement on this issue.”
In June 2005 Dr Manmohan Singh said that “Siachen is called the highest battlefield where living is very difficult... Our efforts should be that such an environment of peace is created wherein nobody feels any threats, and there is no scope for a conflict, and this place becomes an example of peace.”
But then he declared that “we feel these [Siachen] boundaries are important not only for our security but it relates to the country’s prestige also.”
So, following today’s meeting between Dr Singh and Mr Gilani, can we expect any movement on Siachen, as desired by Ms Bhutto twenty years ago?
It is high time there was peaceful agreement about this absurd state of affairs. India and Pakistan should withdraw their troops by mutual arrangement and leave Siachen as it was before 1984 — militarily unoccupied and valueless to all but mountaineers: the “example of peace” so desired by Dr Singh. It would be magnificent if India and Pakistan could set an example to the world in conflict resolution. The prime ministers would go down in history, deservedly, as peacemakers.
A Nobel recognition would not be excessive were they to achieve agreement. Indeed it would be almost guaranteed for both of them.
Or are July meetings doomed to failure because the political curses of “prestige” and national pride are more important than lives and common sense?
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Brian Cloughley