Saudi Arabia and the UAE's propaganda war against Qatar

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

 

[Serpentine]

Iranians jumping like mad dogs on a Pakistani defense forum (LOL) over a non-issue that does not concern them the slightest as it is an internal Arab matter, more specifically GCC-related.

With irony being, it was Saudi and Co. Jumping like mad dogs with just whispers of a news that Qatar might get closer to Iran. Saudi regime literally went on full retard mode, attacking Qatar left and right. It's actually the true thing that shows who is shit scared and cares more about the other side (Saudi regime's sadistic obsession with Iran), not just some forum members posting in a thread.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

So when will KSA and UAE invade and divide Qatar? THAT is the million-dollar question. The deep tension and animosity is bound to kickstart a devastating war of mutual destruction. Telling you all. Saudi Arabians and Emiratis cannot stand the 200.000 Qataris. A incredibly long history of destructive wars and millennia old animosity. After all Qatar is the oldest nation state in the world.

With irony being, it was Saudi and Co. Jumping like mad dogs with just whispers of a news that Qatar might get closer to Iran. Saudi regime literally went on full retard mode, attacking Qatar left and right. It 's actually the true thing that shows who is shit scared and cares more about the other side (Saudi regime sadistic obsession with Iran), not just some forum members posting in a thread.

Nothing retarded about attacking a fake statement alluding to friendship with an enemy state (Iran) and nonsense dreams of another current enemy state (Israel) and friendship. Yes, KSA is very scared of 200.000 big Qatar.

Continue jumping like mad dogs thinking that KSA and Qatar are even remotely close to being in a hostile relationship. Let alone, most importantly, the people-to-people relationship.

 

[Serpentine]

Nothing retarded about attacking a fake statement alluding to friendship with an enemy state (Iran) and nonsense dreams of another current enemy state (Israel) and friendship. Yes, KSA is very scared of 200.000 big Qata

You just proved your own word wrong: it has everything to do with Iran. The whole anti-Qatar propaganda campaign by Saudis was simply over a rumor that Qatar wants to be closer to Iran, showing a sadistic reaction which is natural given current Saudi leadership.

The Iran obsession is driving Saudi leaders totally mad, while getting milked big time in the process by the west.

 

[Muhammed45]

If you're not a little snowflake and won't get offended by the harsh realities of geopolitics, then carry on reading...

First, let's start with the geography and history of the region in question. Qatar is more or less at the center of the Bahrain-UAE-KSA triangle:

Although Qatar is a peninsula and buffered by a body of water on 3 sides, Qatar's capital city (Doha) feels dangerously close to the capitals of 3 countries: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. For the sake of comparison, although a country like Kuwait does not enjoy Qatar's luxury of having natural borders/buffers with its neighbors (e.g. bodies of water, tall sand dunes, etc) and although it is in fact sandwiched between two very large countries (i.e. Iraq and Saudi Arabia), the irony is that Kuwait's capital is still far away from the capitals of its northern and southern neighbors. In theory, this means that Kuwait still has enough time to prepare for war with its neighbors. I say "in theory" because, back in 1990, Kuwait's rulers had a lot of time to deter an Iraqi invasion but naively thought that their fake "brotherly" relations with Iraq would never deteriorate to the point where both countries would go to war. Anyway, going back to Qatar, its peninsular geography is not as helpful as it initially appears, since the nation's capital is uncomfortably close to the capitals of its neighbors. As a case in point, it would literally take only minutes for Bahrain to launch a naval invasion of Qatar, and an hour for either Saudi Arabia or the UAE to launch a ground invasion of that country. So while it's true that Qatar's peninsular geography is somewhat of a blessing, it's also true that it's not really enough to deter Qatar's neighbors from posing a naval threat to its sovereignty, considering the close proximity between Doha and neighboring foreign capitals such as Abu Dhabi and Manama.

In many ways, the close proximity between the capitals of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE is reminiscent of the close proximity between the capitals of Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Israel. Although the Bahrain-KSA-UAE triangle is nowhere near as vulnerable to instability as the southern Levant, it was historically the most unstable and war-torn area of the Gulf region. As a matter of fact, in the 1800s, Qatar was, on numerous occasions, militarily harassed and attacked by the Saudis, Bahrainis, and Abu Dhabi. This prompted the 19th century rulers of Qatar to forge alliances with both the Ottoman Empire and British Empire. Just like with Kuwait, the Ottoman Turks recognized Qatar as an "autonomous" state in exchange for Qatar's allegiance to the Ottoman sultan. Both Kuwait and Qatar were classified as independent kaymakamliks. The relations between Qatar and Britain grew stronger after Ottoman power began to decline and especially after the Ottomans became less willing to help protect Qatar against its neighbors. This gave the British a golden opportunity to forge stronger ties with the Qataris. Nonetheless, the historical ties between Qatar and Turks were overall very positive.

Geography dictates that Qatar will always forge ties with faraway powers in order to protect its sovereignty from immediate neighbors. This has been the case both historically and at present. Historically, it was the Ottomans and British who gave Qatar the protection that it needed against its irredentist neighbors. In modern times, it has largely been the Americans who have provided this security arrangement. However, in recent years, Qatar has once again reestablished strong ties with Turkey, its most trustworthy historical partner. This has no doubt angered Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, both of whom view the Qatari-Turkish axis as a facilitator of the Muslim Brotherhood and other hostile Sunni Islamist movements in the region. The Saudis have tried and failed to court the Turks by promising them investments and weapons purchases. Turkey appears unwilling to abandon Qatar and the Sunni Islamic cause for the sake of UAE and Saudi money. Qatar still holds an important place in Ankara's foreign policy doctrine. The Turks have invested heavily in Qatar's sovereignty and long-term security, and are for the time being unwilling to let go of the Qataris. The feelings are mutual as far as the Qataris are concerned. Qatar is now the largest Gulf Arab investor in Turkey, which has greatly benefited the economies and businesses of both countries. Both countries still believe that the future generations of the Arab World will embrace "Islamic democracy" and reject antagonistic trends.

But Qatar's strategy was never to put all its eggs in one basket. As the former Qatari prime minister said in a recent speech he gave at Qatar University, Qatar's foreign policy objective is to forge alliances with as many faraway powers as possible in order to secure its long-term sovereignty. Indeed, Qatar has begun to court not only Turkey, but also Britain, Russia, China and India. Qatar has set up a Chinese Yuan clearing center in Doha to ease transactions between both countries. It has also invested in Russia's Gazprom, set up subsidiary airlines in India, and strengthened economic cooperation with London. In fact, this summer, Qatar is hosting many business conferences and events across the United Kingdom in order to encourage British businesses to open Middle Eastern branches in Qatar's newly created financial district in Doha. Last year, Qatar announced that it wants to transform its newly built Doha financial district into the "Wall Street of the Gulf". Of course, this has also unsettled the Emiratis, since the number one financial hub in the region right now is located in Dubai.

So there are also economic reasons behind the current rifts between Qatar and its neighbors. The UAE does not want to be outplayed by Qatar in its own financial game, but it appears that the Qataris are very serious about dethroning the UAE as the number one business destination of the Gulf region. This will no doubt deal a huge blow to the UAE's plan to become the strongest, most diversified and most sustainable economy in the region. Unlike Kuwait and Bahrain, which also hope to become financial hubs in the region, Qatar's attempt to become the financial center of the region is taken a lot more seriously by the UAE leaders. Qatar now has the most competitive and open economy in the region, as well as the fastest growing private sector. Without a doubt, these economic indicators are troubling the Emiratis. Another factor troubling the UAE is Qatar's natural gas reserves, which experts believe will not run out for the next 130 years, not to mention the fact that there are still many undiscovered natural gas reserves in Qatar. The UAE will run out of oil 70 years before Qatar will run out of its discovered natural gas reserves.

So there are a combination of economic, geographic and historical factors behind the ongoing rifts between Qatar and its neighbors, primarily the UAE.

In short, although Qatar's peninsular geography is helpful and somewhat of a natural deterrence, the country's extreme proximity to neighboring capitals is an annoyance, a cause for concern, and the main driving force behind Qatar's alignment with faraway powers. Also, Qatar's history of repeatedly getting attacked and harassed by its neighbors dictates that the country will never completely trust them. Economically, Qatar's strive for diversification and becoming the main financial hub of the region is upping the hostility that it's receiving from the likes of the UAE.

So what about the UAE and Saudi Arabia? Apart from their desire to eliminate the Muslim Brotherhood from the region, why else are they waging a propaganda war against Qatar? Well, the UAE wants to remain the number one financial and tourism hub in the region, and does not want Qatar to overtake places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi as the number one financial center of the Gulf. Secondly, the UAE is unhappy with Qatar's attempts to keep Yemen unified. It has become very clear by now that the UAE intends to divide Yemen into north and south. Abu Dhabi's support for the South Yemen separatists is being confronted by Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood factions of Yemen. The Qatari media has vilified the UAE over the last couple of weeks over its attempt to balkanize Yemen. In return, the UAE media has accused Qatar of supporting Islamist groups in Yemen, some of which have become a huge obstacle to the independence ambitions of the South Yemen movement.

I'll post more things about the UAE and the South Yemen movement in another thread. Again, this is another thing that many members around here have insulted me for exposing many months ago. A lot of UAE-based and Gulf-based members accused me of making things up when I said that the UAE was planning to break up Yemen and that it was building military bases in Socotra and Somaliland. Well, recent events show that everything I said before is turning out to be true.

So why is Qatar against the UAE's plan to break up Yemen? Well, there are many answers to that question:

1. Qatar believes that if the UAE breaks up Yemen, then South Yemen will become a secular and anti-Islamist country, which will strengthen the UAE's regional influence and weaken Qatar's.

2. Qatar also believes that this will strengthen the case for officially balkanizing other countries as well, such as Somalia, Libya, Syria and Iraq. This means that the north Somalian breakaway state of Somaliland will eventually receive international recognition. Somaliland, just like South Yemen, will be an anti-Islamist and secular state, which will no doubt mean that both Qatari and Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa will decline, just as Qatari and Turkish influence in Libya and Yemen will decline.

3. The UAE is also secretly supporting Kurdish and Kurdish-aligned secular groups in Syria and Iraq. The UAE has already publicly stated its support for Kurdish independence. Again, Qatar doesn't like this since it will diminish Qatari and Turkish influence in the Levant and Mesopotamia. Also, Kurdish statehood will weaken Qatar's best ally in the region, Turkey.

Okay, so what about Israel? Why is Israel with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and against Qatar?

1. Israel shares the UAE's goal of officially breaking up countries like Libya, Yemen, Somalia, etc. It also shares the UAE's policy of promoting anti-Islamist secularists at the expense of Islamists.

2. Israel shares the UAE's goal of helping the Kurds achieve independence. Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all believe that an independent Kurdistan will act as bulwark against both Islamist Turkey and Islamist Iran.

3. Israel and the UAE are secretly planning to oust Hamas from Gaza and replace them with a secular pro-UAE Palestinian group. In order for this to happen, Hamas must be weakened, and this means that both Qatar and Turkey must be stopped from helping Hamas.

Here's something interesting. A few weeks ago, Hamas declared that its cutting its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and that it no longer wishes to see the destruction of Israel. Many believe that this was Hamas's desperate attempt to convince Israel not to go with the UAE's plan of invading Gaza.

So what's going to happen? Who will win and who will lose? What will America do, if anything?

Well, a number of things might happen:

1. The UAE might stage a coup against the current emir of Qatar and replace him with elements of the Qatari ruling family who are willing to play second fiddle to Abu Dhabi and willing to cut all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni Islamist movements. Of course, in order for this coup to happen successfully, the Americans must accept it, otherwise it won't be allowed to take place. Another obstacle is Turkey, which already has a military base in Qatar, with well over 500 Turkish troops.

2. A coup might not necessarily occur, but Qatar might make a number of big concessions to the UAE, which includes staying out of the Yemeni war, staying out of the war in Libya, and not hosting Islamists in Doha.

3. The UAE might overextend itself and things might begin to backfire on Abu Dhabi. Increased hostility towards Qatar might strengthen Qatar's resolve and, ironically, push the Qataris even closer to the Iranians and Turks.

4. The American deep state might ironically use this as an opportunity to play the Qatari bloc and UAE bloc off against each other to ensure that neither bloc gets the upper hand.

Personally, I don't think Abu Dhabi or Riyadh will succeed in this current rift. Although the UAE and Saudi Arabia wish the Americans/Westerners will side with them against Qatar, the truth is the United States will not allow the UAE to establish a strong upper hand in the region, even though the UAE has helped the US in many places across the Middle East, particularly in Yemen. The truth, however, is that the Americans won't throw the Qataris under the bus. They will continue ensuring that there's a balance of power in the region, which obviously means that they won't allow the UAE or Saudi Arabia to succeed in subverting Doha.

Moreover, many foreign powers already have vested interests in Qatar's sovereignty. None of them will allow Abu Dhabi to cross the red lines.

So I actually think this is where the UAE might fumble for the very first time since the Arab Spring began. The UAE was bound to stretch itself too thin at some point, and this might just be the point where it does.

I think Qatar's resolve will actually strengthen and not get worse. Just like in 2014, it might offer a few symbolic gestures of goodwill to its neighbors, but it will continue pursuing a foreign policy that will run contrary to those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This will especially be true as Turkey, Qatar's best ally in the region, becomes more assertive in the region.

This is what i call it logic
You are honest and extremely right sis
The only thing that can stop these mad monarchs from ruining Arab world, not more than this, is the rise of Arab people. I wish safety for Arab people, but first they must get rid of these mad monarchs hungry for power

 

[Falcon29]

3. Israel and the UAE are secretly planning to oust Hamas from Gaza and replace them with a secular pro-UAE Palestinian group. In order for this to happen, Hamas must be weakened, and this means that both Qatar and Turkey must be stopped from helping Hamas.

Here's something interesting. A few weeks ago, Hamas declared that its cutting its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and that it no longer wishes to see the destruction of Israel. Many believe that this was Hamas's desperate attempt to convince Israel not to go with the UAE's plan of invading Gaza.

So what's going to happen? Who will win and who will lose? What will America do, if anything?

Interesting analysis, you may be right about UAE-Qatari differences, although not on Saudi. Your point #3 here also isn't true. UAE is not involved in any such plan in Gaza, and neither does it have influence there. The situation in Gaza is a lot bigger than Hamas. It's about ceding responsibility of the strip completely, and to further extent a scheme to force migration of Palestinians out of there with increasingly worse conditions that will make it unlivable. It is no different than Israelis strategy in the West Bank, make life miserable in hopes of forcing Palestinian migration out of Palestine.

Hamas also respects democracy and human rights, and secular principles. In Palestine we don't have polar opposite ideologies or platforms. We have secular and moderate platforms. Some nations concerns with Hamas are not related to it's background. It's all about Hamas's policy towards the conflict, that seeks a just solution for our people which tests many aspects of nations policies, that can in turn make governments look good or bad depending on how they approach it. So it is frustration with their ability to cause influence on popular opinion.

 

[Falcon29]

Left without arguments as usual? You find it very funny being exposed again. Interesting and incredibly telling. Not surprised the least.

This particular member's style is a combination of rhetoric and passive aggressiveness. So debating with him is pointless. Once you get your point across, just stop there and let him get the last word since that is what's important to him.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Trump's 'Arab NATO' Vision is a Desert Mirage
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/trumps-arab-nato-vision-desert-mirage

Ever since Teddy Roosevelt began a tradition of overseas state visits when he headed to Panama to check on his canal project in 1906, American presidents have chosen the destination of their first overseas visit with foreign policy theater in mind. The majority, from Dwight D. Eisenhower to Barack Obama, stayed close to home to focus on North America or the Caribbean Basin. Others, from Woodrow Wilson to Jimmy Carter, crossed the Atlantic amid wars hot and cold. Donald Trump, however, is the first to choose the Middle East for his foreign debut. His reach, in this case, may well exceed his grasp, especially when it comes to the concept of building an "Arab NATO" to manage the region.

A Trump Tweak to the Balance of Power
Trump was seemingly determined during his recently concluded visit to bring new vigor to the dragging war on jihadism and the West's unsettling relationship with Iran by offering a different tact: Unite with Washington behind a common mission to eradicate a barbaric strand of Islamist extremism and, in return, Uncle Sam will mind his own business when it comes to the region’s domestic affairs.

The broader strategy of a United States trying to reduce overseas burdens by prodding regional partners to step up and do more is, in fact, an extension of Obama's foreign policy. Trump, however, is trying a very different means to the same goal. The president’s characteristically brazen manner, admonishing European partners while lavishing praise on his Arab counterparts and acting aloof toward Asia-Pacific allies is, in its own odd way, designed to spur the rest of the world into action. In the case of the Middle East, in particular, Trump has espoused the concept of an Arab NATO — led by Saudi Arabia and handsomely outfitted with U.S. military hardware — to help the United States neutralize terrorist threats and push back against Iran.

Though it may appear different, the U.S. tilt back to the Sunni camp under Trump is still in keeping with a general balance-of-power approach to the Middle East. Former U.S. President George W. Bush knocked the region out of balance when he deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and effectively opened an Arab gateway to Iran to spread its influence from Shiite-majority Iraq. The Obama years were then consumed with efforts to resolve an overwhelming Iran problem without a destabilizing war in the Persian Gulf. With a viable, albeit imperfect, nuclear deal in place, the United States was able to downgrade Iran from crisis levels so that it could focus on other pressing foreign policy priorities. In inheriting this foreign policy agenda, Trump now has greater room to bolster support for the Sunni camp to keep a strong check on Iran, now unshackled from sanctions but facing much greater regional competition.

Saudi Arabia was as thrilled to host Trump’s first state visit as Trump was eager to lap up the royal pageantry. But things were not always this cozy between Washington and Riyadh. During the Cold War, when Riyadh was legitimately paranoid that a secular, smooth-talking and clean-shaven Shah of Iran would coax the White House into backing an Iranian grab for Saudi oil fields in the name of regional security, the golden-robed Wahhabi royals of Riyadh had to be extremely clever and resourceful to edge their way into the club of U.S. allies. Trump's visit was Saudi Arabia's rare chance to upgrade the House of Saud's insurance plan in the wake of Obama's strategic rapprochement with Iran, which had come just as the region’s monarchs and surviving autocrats were still trembling from the Arab Spring uprisings. There could be no better gift than an American president willing to maintain a tough line on Iran while sweeping human rights concerns under the rug.

But the American president is in for a rude discovery: An Arab NATO is nothing more than a desert mirage. Even as many of the region’s Sunni Arab powers share a fear of Iranian expansionism, economic oblivion, and regime overthrows, their deep, geopolitically-rooted divisions will deny Saudi Arabia and its American sponsors a neatly packaged security alliance. Doubters of this prophecy need only reflect on the past few days to understand why.

What Lies Behind the Gulf Media Offensive Against Qatar
The bizarre tale of events began the evening of May 23, two days following the Riyadh summit, when state-owned Qatar News Agency published a report quoting Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani making several controversial comments that favored Iran, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. The comments, which briefly ran on the QNA ticker before disappearing, included statements such as, "Iran represents a regional and Islamic power that cannot be ignored and it is unwise to harbor hostility against it." Another declared, "Hamas is the representative of the Palestinian people," while noting "tension" between Trump and Qatar. Shortly thereafter, the Twitter handle of Qatar's foreign minister included statements that Doha had ordered the ambassadors from Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to leave the country.

Within a couple hours of the comments surfacing, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia leapt on the issue and began banning Qatari media outlets. QNA quickly reported that the comments on its website and the Qatari’s foreign minister's Twitter account were the result of a cyberattack. But the hacking explanation fell on deaf ears. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had already seized on an opportunity to shame and isolate their Qatari neighbors. The Qatari emir's phone call to newly-reelected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on May 27 only added fuel to the fire. A deluge of editorials condemning Qatar gushed from Saudi and Emirati media outlets. Just as rumors began to swirl that Qatar could be kicked out of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Saudi Arabia reverted to a historical throwdown and questioned the legitimacy of the Qatari royal family’s lineage to the founder of Wahhabism.

This seemingly well-coordinated Saudi-Emirati pressure campaign on Qatar appears to have a strong American lobbying component to it as well. Much to Doha’s vexation, the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a group known to be allergic to the Muslim Brotherhood and in favor of hardline on Iran, held a pre-arranged conference on May 23 (the same day the controversy over the emir’s statements broke out) titled, “Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood’s Global Affiliates: A New U.S. Administration Considers New Policies.” Many of the remarks made at the conference, along with editorials written by FDD representatives in major U.S. outlets, focused on a message that branded Muslim Brotherhood affiliates — and their Qatari sponsors — as a “gateway drug” for violent Islamists. U.S. policy, they urged, should be to “ostracize, isolate and delegitimize” the so-called “hate group” and their Qatari sponsors. Moreover, they argued, the United States’ 2003 decision to shift from the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is not irreversible, especially when the gap between the United States on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the other has narrowed considerably since the 9/11 attacks. Even attempts were made to lure Stratfor into this media barrage with an interview request from an Emirati media outlet containing leading questions that were obviously designed to denigrate Qatar and fuel speculation that the United States would withdraw from its base in Qatar.

The Geopolitics of the GCC
To make sense of the drama, we need to take a step back and take stock of the geopolitical map. Saudi Arabia, with its vast oil reserves, claim to Islam's holiest sites, and increasingly friendly relationship with the United States, feels both compelled and entitled to lead a broader Sunni alliance to block Iran and prevent Islamist political activists from threatening the existing regional order. But the Sunni Gulf sheikhdoms sprouting off the Arabian Peninsula, wedged between Iran and Saudi Arabia along the Persian Gulf, have discrete ways of managing their existence between the Sunni and Shiite giants.

Aspiring for Gulf domination has historically entailed vying for control over the Strait of Hormuz along the isles of Bahrain and the oases of Qatif and Hasa (located in the modern-day, oil-rich Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.) Kuwait, precariously nestled at the top of the Gulf, lies vulnerable to both Iran and Shiite-majority Iraq and is thus more cautious when it comes to dealing with its Persian neighbor. With more than one-third of its population comprised of Shiites, Kuwait’s diverse demographics and imbedded sectarianism compels the Kuwaiti leadership to find a working balance among its Shiite, Sunni, Islamist and secular factions.

Bahrain, a tiny Shiite-majority island under Sunni rule that is physically tethered to the Saudi kingdom via a causeway allowing easy access to Saudi troops, is at the frontline of the Saudi-Iranian proxy war. It is wholly dependent on Riyadh for its internal security and thus easily falls in line with the Saudi agenda. Oman, lying opposite Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz at the southeastern tip of the peninsula, understands just as well as Tehran that a close bilateral relationship is vital to its security. The quirky sultanate thus maintains a policy of fierce neutrality and is consequently a regular diplomatic go-between for Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The United Arab Emirates, curving at the mouth of the Arabian Sea and heavily dependent on the security of the Strait of Hormuz, can also at times exercise an Omani and Kuwaiti-like pragmatism in dealing with Iran, especially when it comes to commercial matters. When Iran was buried under economic sanctions, for example, Dubai was a prime spot for Iranian businessmen to set up shell companies. But the United Arab Emirates also has its deep grievances with Iran and concerns about its growing ambitions. These include Iran’s seizure of three strategic islands near the entrance to the strait in 1971, just a day before the British formally ended its Gulf protectorate to create the United Arab Emirates.

The United Arab Emirates, far more economically and politically secure than Saudi Arabia, is also not interested in living under a Saudi umbrella. The Emiratis largely view the Saudis as clumsily playing catch-up on economic diversification and expect to eventually see Riyadh stumble when social, economic and political pressures overwhelm the House of Saud, leaving space in due time for the United Arab Emirates to make a bid for regional leadership. The Emiratis also have differences with Saudi Arabia over certain coalition projects, such as the war in Yemen. While Saudi Arabia, which is most exposed to spillover from Yemen, has to entertain a compromise with Islamist groups like Al-Islah to manage Yemen’s divided north, the United Arab Emirates remains steadfast to its anti-Islamist policy and is willing to flout Saudi policy by fanning the flames of Yemen’s southern separatists.

But as a federation of seven emirates, the United Arab Emirates also has its own internal cleavages to manage. Though more socially and politically liberal than Saudi Arabia, large wealth disparities exist between the rich southern emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai and the five poorer northern emirates. In the early years after its founding, the United Arab Emirates cautiously allowed political Islamists in from other parts of the Arab world. Islamist activists settled in poorer areas and developed influence in the education system with the growth of Al-Islah — the Emirati affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood. Over time, however, Abu Dhabi and Dubai grew paranoid of Al-Islah’s political ambitions, a fear that was confirmed with the spawning of the Arab Spring in late 2011. Since then, the United Arab Emirates has taken the most hawkish stance of all the GCC states in espousing a zero-tolerance posture toward political Islamists of every stripe at home and abroad in places like Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Syria.

Qatar, a nub jutting out of the Arabian Peninsula, went the opposite direction. With a small population and a unitary state centralized around Doha, Qatar lacks the internal ethno-religious tensions and political insecurities of its neighbors. This level of security gives Qatar an independent streak with Doha balking at taking orders from either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Qatar resisted incorporation into the United Arab Emirates in 1971 when the British protectorate ended, preferring to hold out on its own under an American security umbrella. The poor nation survived mainly on fishing and pearl diving for much of its short history until a natural gas boom put Qatar on the map in the late 1990s. As the only major natural gas player in the region, Qatar had a clear path and ideal energy platform to differentiate itself among its neighboring oil heavyweights. As it rose to global LNG dominance, Qatar’s investment portfolio grew globally, and Doha wasted no time in building up its regional clout to be able to finally punch above its weight in the Gulf.

To the horror of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Qatari money rapidly gave rise to media giant Al Jazeera and has propped up Islamist groups in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Gaza and Yemen. When the Arab Spring briefly brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt, it was Qatari (and Turkish) backing that enabled the group to hold ground until the Egyptian military caught its breath and intervened. When Saudi Arabia froze out Hamas and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood after the Arab Spring, Qatar and Turkey gave fleeing Islamists refuge. When Saudi and the United Arab Emirates found a vehemently anti-Islamist strongman in Gen. Khalifa Hiftar to shape post-Gadhafi Libya in the east, Qatar threw its weight behind the Islamist-led government and militias in Tripoli. Doha has also preferred to maintain a tight working relationship with Tehran (also critical to Qatar’s ability to exploit its natural gas fields under joint custody with Iran) rather than invite the kind of Iranian meddling that tends to come with latching onto the Saudi bandwagon. Everywhere Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates turned, there was a Qatari counter from within their GCC bloc.

Doha: A Rebel With a Cause
If the GCC had any hope of building a credible and coherent security bloc, Qatar would need to get in line. This is a wrangling effort that goes back decades; in 1995, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tried to no avail to rein in Qatar when the Qatari emir deposed his father and declared himself ruler, thus flouting a GCC tradition of dynastic rule. But the first big attempt to snuff out Doha’s rebellious streak in foreign policy matters came in 2014, when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain withdrew their ambassadors from Doha and demanded that Qatar end its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and rein in critical coverage by Al Jazeera on how regional regimes were putting down Arab Spring uprisings. (Kuwait and Oman largely stayed out of the affair.) After eight months of the Saudi-UAE isolation campaign against Qatar, Riyadh convened a summit to settle their differences, and Doha made some nominal assurances to its Gulf neighbors on relocating a few Muslim Brotherhood figures to Turkey and shutting down the Egyptian arm of Al Jazeera. In the end, Qatar largely maintained its maverick policy of backing Islamist political activists and maintaining a pragmatic relationship with Iran. Qatar also proceeded apace with plans for Turkey to establish a permanent military base in the Gulf country, giving Ankara greater ability to reshape politics in the Gulf in favor of political Islamists. Fed up with Doha’s intransigence, the Saudis and Emiratis have spun up a media firestorm over the Qatari emir's comments to try to force Doha into another diplomatic timeout, while Kuwait and Oman try to appeal for calm once again.

This latest media rabble is just the latest exposure of the deep cleavages within the GCC and has the potential to further fray the alliance, undermining any idealistic American agenda to cobble together a so-called Arab NATO. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both see an opportunity to expose Qatar’s rebellious nature to Trump and use that as leverage to reinforce their own security ties with the United States, while trying to convince Washington to officially brand the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization. But even as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates share a common purpose in exposing Qatar, they, too, are competing for leadership of the Sunni Gulf bloc in the longer run. Regardless of how much backing the United States puts into this project, the fault lines of the GCC alliance will continue to flare.

Short-Term Needs v Long-Term Realities
Qatar’s next steps will largely be dictated by how far the United States goes in backing this Saudi and Emirati play against Doha. On the one hand, the United States wants to see a tighter Sunni Arab coalition and can use the threat of reconsidering its military footprint in Qatar to try to bring Doha in line with the Saudi agenda. Doha cannot survive in this neighborhood without an external security guarantor and though Qatari-Turkish military ties are strengthening, Turkey is still nowhere near a substitute for the U.S. military. While Qatar cannot afford to sacrifice its American security guarantees, Qatar also sees little strategic value in taking an extreme, short-term view toward political Islamists and Iran when both will remain an integral part of the regional fabric for the long term. Even as Iran will have to work hard to hold onto the gains it has made over the past 14 years in the face of rising regional competition, it remains a formidable competitor to the Sunni bloc and retains critical leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.

Moreover, the Muslim Brotherhood did not disappear with the Egyptian military coup in 2013. Bulging youth demographics across much of the region, a lack of job opportunities pervading power vacuums in the heart of Mesopotamia and the Gulf, and the boomerang effect of heavy-handed political repression will continue driving large numbers of people toward Islamist organizations and other opposition groups demanding more open political systems. And with Turkey reasserting itself in the Islamic world, Islamist organizations will have a strong state sponsor, along with Qatar, to ensure their survival even as they face an uphill battle in the shorter term. Qatar and Turkey, in other words, are playing the long game in the Middle East, rather than trying to cling desperately to a 20th-century model of the region that is slowly coming apart at the seams. The Trump administration, however, appears more inclined to adopt the Saudi-Emirati short-term perspective in trying to manage the region. What will end up emerging out of this GCC imbroglio is not a viable Arab NATO for the United States to streamline its regional security policy, but a much messier reality for Washington to contend with as it tries to navigate the fractious geopolitics of the Gulf.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

This particular member's style is a combination of rhetoric and passive aggressiveness. So debating with him is pointless. Once you get your point across, just stop there and let him get the last word since that is what's important to him.

That guy is trying to act like a "holy cow" by highlighting all the faults that exist among Arabs, Muslims and basically everyone else that is not an Iranian. Using fake and dishonest language, propaganda and desperately trying to hide his contempt for Arabs. He thinks that he is "sophisticated" and that people have not found him out. He is just like most of his lot regardless of ideology. Just wearing another garb depending on the occasion. Obviously he does not like to be exposed for all to see. In fact he does not care about Shia Arabs either or their homelands. All he cares about is serving the interests of his leaders who he believes (for now at least) to serve the interests of his people. There is no need to deny this fact and we should start to speak about this publicly and put the Muslim solidarity and other similar speech to the side and realize that most of them (not all but most of them nevertheless) have a certain 1400 year old grudge, most recently empowered after receiving a spanking from Iraq and realizing that their Mullah policies are met mostly by hatred by our people, and that this will dictate their real motives, views and actions. Unless they leave this obsession and 1400 year old burden aside, there is zero chance of any meaningful and long-standing real people-to-people neighborliness. Let's be honest for a while here. Which Arabs pre-1979, aside from a few nationalist Iraqi Arabs (Ba'athis mostly) and Emiratis (who numbered what 40 years ago, 50.000 people? and only due to the island dispute) had any focus on Iran let alone gave them much attention. On the other hand during the Shah era an anti-Arab bias and propaganda already existed and was well alive in Iran. To tell you honestly, I won't ever trust those people unless they are Iranian Arabs.

I have the exact same view of Ashkenazi Zionists. I don't trust them. Arab Jews are another matter. They can be argued with. Some will say that this is "racism" I will say that this is acting based on existing conditions that we did not create. It's just how it is. Of course this can change sometime in the future and during a large duration of history there was no or very little hostility to begin with, but it is different nowadays and in more modern times (1-2 last generations). We have to realize this reality and not fool ourselves. Everyone can see what is going on and what their Mulah's are doing. Yes, every party is to blame but I am not going to stop speaking about the faults of 1 party just because others have faults as well. Especially not when we Arabs will have to deal with our own challenges. We don't need any "help" from foreigners least of all an entity who are ruled by overall hostile people.

How am I supposed to have any dialogue with a person that is such a big hypocrite that all he is doing is complaining about KSA/GCC 24/7 and speaking about monarchy/lack of democracy/imaginary "Wahhabism", "Yemen" etc. while he has been ruled by a holy infallible Mullah that has ruled his country for 30 years, while there is no democracy in his country, while there is Wilyat al-Faqih, "Islamic" Revolution (which their so-called constitution declares that they need to export),Syria, Iraq etc. Or when Mullah's among them or even users here among them act like they had any right to meddle in our internal affairs or when one of their heroin addicted Mullah's is barking about "controlling" 4 Arab capitals. Or some nonsense Umayyad, Abbasid, Rashidun, Ahl al-Bayt etc. talk as if all those people were not from modern-day KSA/Arabia/Arab world and our people but somehow alien to us. Or some nonsense Hadith about Najd being propagandized to demonize an entire historical region of Arabia while more hadiths can be found about the dangers found in modern-day Iran, Isfahan, Jews etc. Yet I never see a single Arab use such a fake speech aimed at only creating what I have eluded to.

Lastly notice how he, whenever he talks about Palestine, is trying to demonize Arabs, create hostility among Arabs here etc. by acting like Arabs never went to war with Israel (the only Muslims so far in fact), do not host any Palestinians, do not donate anything, do not support Palestine etc. Some low IQ users on PDF (no need to mention their specific nationalities as everyone can make their own conclusions based on evidence) are obviously buying such rhetoric.

A person with honest intentions would never act like that and this is why I am saying what I am saying. I am yet to meet a single honest person (outside of maybe 2-3 users) among their ranks here.

We are in general honest people who tell thinks how they are straight to your face. I tend to like such people as I know where they stand and there are usually no bullshit involved. If we disagree we disagree. However I cannot tolerate the behavior that I have described because it is the same fake and dishonest behavior that the Mullah's that rule Iran employ.

 

[Falcon29]

That guy is trying to act like a "holy cow" by highlighting all the faults that exist among Arabs, Muslims and basically everyone else that is not an Iranian. Using fake and dishonest language, propaganda and desperately trying to hide his contempt for Arabs. He thinks that he is "sophisticated" and that people have not found him out. He is just like most of his lot regardless of ideology. Just wearing another garb depending on the occasion. Obviously he does not like to be exposed for all to see. In fact he does not care about Shia Arabs either or their homelands. All he cares about is serving the interests of his leaders who he believes (for now at least) to serve the interests of his people. There is no need to deny this fact and we should start to speak about this publicly and put the Muslim solidarity and other similar speech to the side and realize that most of them (not all but most of them nevertheless) have a certain 1400 year old grudge, most recently empowered after receiving a spanking from Iraq and realizing that their Mullah policies are met mostly by hatred by our people, and that this will dictate their real motives, views and actions. Unless they leave this obsession and 1400 year old burden aside, there is zero chance of any meaningful and long-standing real people-to-people neighborliness. Let's be honest for a while here. Which Arabs pre-1979, aside from a few nationalist Iraqi Arabs (Ba'athis mostly) and Emiratis (who numbered what 40 years ago, 50.000 people? and only due to the island dispute) had any focus on Iran let alone gave them much attention. On the other hand during the Shah era an anti-Arab bias and propaganda already existed and was well alive in Iran. To tell you honestly, I won't ever trust those people unless they are Iranian Arabs.

I have the exact same view of Ashkenazi Zionists. I don't trust them. Arab Jews are another matter. They can be argued with. Some will say that this is "racism" I will say that this is acting based on existing conditions that we did not create. It's just how it is. Of course this can change sometime in the future and during a large duration of history there was no or very little hostility to begin with, but it is different nowadays and in more modern times (1-2 last generations). We have to realize this reality and not fool ourselves. Everyone can see what is going on and what their Mulah's are doing. Yes, every party is to blame but I am not going to stop speaking about the faults of 1 party just because others have faults as well. Especially not when we Arabs will have to deal with our own challenges. We don't need any "help" from foreigners least of all an entity who are ruled by overall hostile people.

How am I supposed to have any dialogue with a person that is such a big hypocrite that all he is doing is complaining about KSA/GCC 24/7 and speaking about monarchy/lack of democracy/imaginary "Wahhabism", "Yemen" etc. while he has been ruled by a holy infallible Mullah that has ruled his country for 30 years, while there is no democracy in his country, while there is Wilyat al-Faqih, "Islamic" Revolution (which their so-called constitution declares that they need to export),Syria, Iraq etc. Or when Mullah's among them or even users here among them act like they had any right to meddle in our internal affairs or when one of their heroin addicted Mullah's is barking about "controlling" 4 Arab capitals. Or some nonsense Umayyad, Abbasid, Rashidun, Ahl al-Bayt etc. talk as if all those people were not from modern-day KSA/Arabia/Arab world and our people but somehow alien to us. Or some nonsense Hadith about Najd being propagandized to demonize an entire historical region of Arabia while more hadiths can be found about the dangers found in modern-day Iran, Isfahan, Jews etc. Yet I never see a single Arab use such a fake speech aimed at only creating what I have eluded to.

Lastly notice how he, whenever he talks about Palestine, is trying to demonize Arabs, create hostility among Arabs here etc. by acting like Arabs never went to war with Israel (the only Muslims so far in fact), do not host any Palestinians, do not donate anything, do not support Palestine etc. Some low IQ users on PDF (no need to mention their specific nationalities as everyone can make their own conclusions based on evidence) are obviously buying such rhetoric.

A person with honest intentions would never act like that and this is why I am saying what I am saying. I am yet to meet a single honest person (outside of maybe 2-3 users) among their ranks here.

We are in general honest people who tell thinks how they are straight to your face. I tend to like such people as I know where they stand and there are usually no bullshit involved. If we disagree we disagree. However I cannot tolerate the behavior that I have described because it is the same fake and dishonest behavior that the Mullah's that rule Iran employ.

Believe me, everything you describe are the same thoughts I'm having regarding that member and others akin to him. I understand it very well, so do most of us, I'm not that good at describing it in words, however. I also agree very much with your point about our straightforwardness, honesty, and 'eye-for-eye' approach where if you don't go on offensive(political) against us, we have no reason to do so against you. That kind of neutrality will make you a prey to predators. That doesn't mean on individual basis we need to change our character, I won't because it's not of me. We do have to beware of those who employ that approach towards us as you've detailed. They won't fool any of us but nevertheless will force these matters down everyones throat and thus it needs to be confronted. In regards to Ashkenazi Jews, their strategy against Palestinians in the modern day is to associate us with radicalism by shouting 24/7 and eventually people in the West believe it. Iran also employed this strategy in Syria and it's working. It's disingenuous and should be wakeup call for us.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

Believe me, everything you describe are the same thoughts I'm having regarding that member and others akin to him. I understand it very well, so do most of us, I'm not that good at describing it in words, however. I also agree very much with your point about our straightforwardness, honesty, and 'eye-for-eye' approach where if you don't go on offensive(political) against us, we have no reason to do so against you. That kind of neutrality will make you a prey to predators. That doesn't mean on individual basis we need to change our character, I won't because it's not of me. We do have to beware of those who employ that approach towards us as you've detailed. They won't fool any of us but nevertheless will force these matters down everyones throat and thus it needs to be confronted. In regards to Ashkenazi Jews, their strategy against Palestinians in the modern day is to associate us with radicalism by shouting 24/7 and eventually people in the West believe it. Iran also employed this strategy in Syria and it's working. It's disingenuous and should be wakeup call for us.

Well said brother and I am glad that you agree with my key points here. Now expect to be called a "racist" by them or their favorite bogey word "Wahhabi" which they call anyone that is critical of their Mullah's or policies. Such a person automatically becomes a "Wahhabi". Sometimes even a "takfiri".

I will elaborate on this further. I don't have a problem with Iranians which is solely a nationality that is composed of many different ethnicities with their own languages (sometimes completely different from each other), own historical regions, traditions etc. I have a problem with those Iranians, regardless of ethnicity, who are brainwashed with anti-Arab propaganda since a very young age. This is something that is mostly a more recent phenomenon originating in the Pahlavi era. Because you cannot argue or reason with such people as they are programmed to hate Arabs for solely being Arabs. They don't care about that Arabs' nationality, religion, ideology etc. We Arabs, aside from some historical rivalry and some slurs (like with every rival people) do not have this obsession towards Iranians (first of all the correct word here should be Persians which is 1 out of many ethnic groups in Iran) nor are our disagreements (which are mostly a recent phenomenon) racial in their nature. Since 1979 a religious element has been included in the rivalry but that's not really what fuels this. Post-Syria this rivalry has grown and reached dangerous heights.

My problem is that people with such views against us, should not try to hide it under a lot of fake statements and views, but not be shy to tell it how it is. I am saying this so gullible Arabs who do not believe that a significant portion of Iranians (not all and maybe not even close to the majority but at least a loud minority) have those feelings despite never meeting a single Arab in their lives. I honestly cannot say that such views ever existed in the Arab world (mainstream). As I said pre-1979 Iran was just another country in the region that people looked as a fellow Muslim country and that there had been some ancient historical rivalries during the early Islamic era and for some time in the pre-Islamic era. We did not look at them as enemies let alone any racial element. To us they were not any different from say neighboring Afghans etc. To Arabs not in the immediate neighborhood (non-GCC and non-Iraq) the ties were even much less and the ignorance probably much greater as the interaction was very limited. Still is to this very day overall.

I have no reason to wish for any hostility. I want us to solve our own problems and to focus on our people and try to make our region and by default overall region a better place to live in. We should work towards solving the Palestinian/Israeli conflict and other conflicts in our region rather than wasting time on some useless proxy war. No sane person is interested in that. I know that most Arabs are not. However the policies of their rulers have contributed heavily to fueling the fire and it is no coincidence that all this began in 1979. It did not begin in the mid 1700's (pre-George Washington to put things into perspective from an American point of view) where this supposed "Wahhabism" originated.

However obviously I cannot ignore what the Iranian regime is doing in our part of the world (nevertheless this does not mean that our own regimes are angels or that they are not doing their part - never claimed otherwise - however at least they are our regimes and it is our internal affairs whether we want to be ruled by MB, monarchs etc. as people eventually will say yes or nor in the sense that they will eventually have the power one day to decide). It's not for Iranians, Papuans, Turks, Zimbabweans, Americans, Jews or others to decide or lecture us when we don't lecture them.

What frustrates me is that certain Arabs cannot see this. I understand that 500 million people cannot have the same views, it's not even possible in families, but why are those people closing their eyes for others (despite being clever enough to realize what is going on) but having wide open eyes towards those that they disagree with? This is the approach that I don't like. You for instance have always been balanced in my eyes and criticized all parties whenever you felt like it. I respect this. However I don't like people who have no self-criticism and who use dishonest rhetoric to gain fans.

I also don't like this whole proxy thing. It's used not to dirty your own hands. If Iran has a defense pact with Al-Assad and loves him so much why don't they send more of their own nationals and soldiers to Syria instead of actual Afghan/Pakistan (mostly) cannon fodder? At least KSA and the Arab coalition is fighting in Yemen. Similarly in Iraq. ALL the fighting is done by local Iraqi Shia Arabs and various groups (anti-Iran and pro-Iran) and the Iraqi military (independent from Iran) yet they always try to propagandize it like they were behind it all and saved 15 million big Baghdad from 1000-2000 ISIS fighter, controlling 4 Arab capitals and that kind of nonsense rhetoric.

Obviously I don't see any reason or perspective in being "friends" with those kind of Iranians. Those who are not like that, what reason should I have to hate them? I have zero reasons. For all I care ALL Iranians could hate Arabs if that meant that their Mullah regime stopped their policies in the region and playing with peoples emotions. At least support state actors and not 100's of different proxies and groups which local states cannot control. It creates a jungle in a already volatile region.

 

[HAIDER]

I've been browsing this forum for the last couple of days, hoping that someone from the Gulf/GCC region will muster up the courage to enlighten PDF's visitors, particularly the Pakistanis and other non-Arabs, about the ongoing escalation of political tensions between Qatar and the Saudi-Emirati axis. But alas, I realized that it was completely up to me to do the dirty job of explaining and analyzing the troublesome pseudo-brotherly relations between Qatar and its adjacent Gulf Arab neighbors.

So brace yourselves, PDFers. This thread isn't going to be about Saudi Arabian cuisine, the Arabian horse, or other nonsensical stuff that ironically have nothing to do with a self-described politico-military forum. Instead, this thread is going to lay out the hard, cold, and ugly truth about the so-called "brotherly" relations between the various Gulf Arab states. So if you don't like what you're about to read, I guess you can choose to ignore it, or, worse still, report the thread for being too truthful for your own comfort.

A few months ago, I started a thread on PDF about a hashtag that was tending on the Arab section of Twitter at the time. The hashtag translated as "You are a liar, just like your father" in English. It was a reference to a response that the previous Saudi king, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, supposedly gave to the current emir of Qatar during a meeting in 2014. The trending hashtag came to me as a surprise, since it was the first time I ever saw Saudis publicly insulting and lashing out at the ruler of another GCC country. The timing of the event also made little sense to me since it came only a few months after the current Saudi king, Salman bin Abdulaziz, met with the emir of Qatar in Doha. Notwithstanding the underlying disagreements between Qatar and its GCC neighbors over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni Islamist movements, the timing of the public outcry against the emir of Qatar by thousands of Saudis on Twitter was still extremely shocking and unprecedented.

So I naturally came to PDF to look for the answers. I started the thread in hopes that one of the Saudi PDFers would know what's going on, but that turned out to be a complete waste of time. Unsurprisingly, virtually all Saudis around here decided to bury their heads in the sand and pretend that everything was in good order between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Common sense and realism/pragmatism were swiftly thrown out the window, and all indications of new rifts between Qatar and Saudi Arabia were denied on the grounds that these two countries shared the same cultural and tribal heritage, even though shared heritages have never stopped people or polities/states from fighting one another in the real world. And not to be outdone by others, some Saudis even suggested that Iran might have been behind that trending hashtag. After all, Iran is also behind more critical world issues, such as climate change, so why shouldn't they also be behind the Twitter hashtag against Qatar?

A couple of weeks ago, only days before Saudi Arabia and the UAE began waging their propaganda war against Qatar, authorities in Doha claimed that they were victims of an orchestrated smear campaign by the media and think tanks of certain countries, and that they knew exactly who was behind this plot:

http://www.gulf-times.com/story/549584/Qatar-says-it-is-victim-of-terror-smear-campaign

^This statement was released by the government of Qatar only days before its news agency supposedly got hacked and began to publish an Iranian-friendly speech that was attributed to Qatar's emir.

A few days after Qatar said it was the victim of an orchestrated smear campaign, its official news agency published an article about a speech that the emir of Qatar supposedly gave during a military graduation ceremony. The emir of Qatar supposedly said the following things:

1. That it would be unwise to be hostile towards Iran since Iran is a great Muslim power in the region.

2. That Hezbollah and Hamas are resistance movements, not terrorist groups.

3. That the countries that accuse Qatar of supporting terrorism (i.e. Saudi Arabia and the UAE) are themselves guilty of promoting a radical version of Islam.

4. That the Al Udeid Air Base is meant to protect Qatar's sovereignty from the irredentist ambitions of neighboring states.

Now, it must be borne in mind that this article was published by Qatar News Agency at midnight, and that it only took the Saudi and UAE media a couple of minutes to immediately republish the news without even attempting to verify it. Even after Qatar announced that its news website was hacked, the Saudi and UAE media continued to republish the speech that was supposedly attributed to the emir of Qatar.

Now let's get one thing straight: there is no independent media in the Gulf. All news channels are directly controlled by the governments of their respective host countries. Al Arabiya is the mouthpiece of the Saudi government, just as Sky News Arabia is the mouthpiece of the UAE government. Both news outlets are continuing to publish propaganda pieces against Qatar as we speak, so it is very clear that there is a Saudi and Emirati attempt to subvert Qatar.

Here are only a few examples of Saudi and Emirati propaganda articles against Qatar over the last couple of days:

1. ANALYSIS: Qatar following Iran’s policy of interference in the region’s crises
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...y-of-interference-in-the-region-s-crises.html

2. ANALYSIS: How Qatar and Iran’s hardliners are very much alike politically
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/fea...homeinis-are-very-much-alike-politically.html

3. ANALYSIS: Hezbollah and Qatar – a story of forbidden love?
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/fea...lah-and-Qatar-a-story-of-forbidden-love-.html

4. Qatar reportedly gave $500 mln to Popular Mobilization militias in Iraq
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...to-Popular-Mobilization-militias-in-Iraq.html

5. Proof that Qatar News Agency was not hacked
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/med...of-that-Qatar-News-Agency-was-not-hacked.html

6. Qatari intelligence founder: ‘Doha has lost its mind’
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/fea...lligence-founder-Doha-has-lost-its-mind-.html

7. Haftar accuses Qatar of supporting terrorism in Libya
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...s-Qatar-of-supporting-terrorism-in-Libya.html

8. Qatari Emir: Doha has ‘tensions’ with the Donald Trump administration
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...Islamic-power-its-ties-with-Israel-good-.html

9. Who runs Qatar behind the scenes?
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie.../05/26/Who-runs-Qatar-behind-the-scenes-.html

10. Analysts raise fears of US base’s proximity to Hamas in Qatar
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/fea...rs-of-US-base-so-close-to-Hamas-in-Qatar.html

Over the last week, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have all blocked Al Jazeera and other Qatari-based or Qatari-funded media outlets:

So in case you've been wondering what the heck is going on, why this is happening, and what are the implications of these tensions, I'm going to write my analysis of the situation in the following post since this post has become way too long already.

I'll just hint a few things before I write my next post:

1. This has something to do with Turkey and the Qatari-Turkish axis.

2. It also has something to do with Yemen.

3. There are underlying historical issues as well between Qatar and its neighbors.

4. In many ways, geography has played a huge role in determining Qatar's foreign policies.

5. Israel is also involved in the recent rifts between Qatar and its neighbors.

Qatari behave well, during King Abdulullah. After his death Qatari royals are quite discomfort for Saudis and UAE. If they want to have own foreign policy or not agree with rest of GCC political approach in regional issues.

 

[Avicenna]

If you're not a little snowflake and won't get offended by the harsh realities of geopolitics, then carry on reading...

First, let's start with the geography and history of the region in question. Qatar is more or less at the center of the Bahrain-UAE-KSA triangle:

Although Qatar is a peninsula and buffered by a body of water on 3 sides, Qatar's capital city (Doha) feels dangerously close to the capitals of 3 countries: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. For the sake of comparison, although a country like Kuwait does not enjoy Qatar's luxury of having natural borders/buffers with its neighbors (e.g. bodies of water, tall sand dunes, etc) and although it is in fact sandwiched between two very large countries (i.e. Iraq and Saudi Arabia), the irony is that Kuwait's capital is still far away from the capitals of its northern and southern neighbors. In theory, this means that Kuwait still has enough time to prepare for war with its neighbors. I say "in theory" because, back in 1990, Kuwait's rulers had a lot of time to deter an Iraqi invasion but naively thought that their fake "brotherly" relations with Iraq would never deteriorate to the point where both countries would go to war. Anyway, going back to Qatar, its peninsular geography is not as helpful as it initially appears, since the nation's capital is uncomfortably close to the capitals of its neighbors. As a case in point, it would literally take only minutes for Bahrain to launch a naval invasion of Qatar, and an hour for either Saudi Arabia or the UAE to launch a ground invasion of that country. So while it's true that Qatar's peninsular geography is somewhat of a blessing, it's also true that it's not really enough to deter Qatar's neighbors from posing a naval threat to its sovereignty, considering the close proximity between Doha and neighboring foreign capitals such as Abu Dhabi and Manama.

In many ways, the close proximity between the capitals of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE is reminiscent of the close proximity between the capitals of Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Israel. Although the Bahrain-KSA-UAE triangle is nowhere near as vulnerable to instability as the southern Levant, it was historically the most unstable and war-torn area of the Gulf region. As a matter of fact, in the 1800s, Qatar was, on numerous occasions, militarily harassed and attacked by the Saudis, Bahrainis, and Abu Dhabi. This prompted the 19th century rulers of Qatar to forge alliances with both the Ottoman Empire and British Empire. Just like with Kuwait, the Ottoman Turks recognized Qatar as an "autonomous" state in exchange for Qatar's allegiance to the Ottoman sultan. Both Kuwait and Qatar were classified as independent kaymakamliks. The relations between Qatar and Britain grew stronger after Ottoman power began to decline and especially after the Ottomans became less willing to help protect Qatar against its neighbors. This gave the British a golden opportunity to forge stronger ties with the Qataris. Nonetheless, the historical ties between Qatar and Turks were overall very positive.

Geography dictates that Qatar will always forge ties with faraway powers in order to protect its sovereignty from immediate neighbors. This has been the case both historically and at present. Historically, it was the Ottomans and British who gave Qatar the protection that it needed against its irredentist neighbors. In modern times, it has largely been the Americans who have provided this security arrangement. However, in recent years, Qatar has once again reestablished strong ties with Turkey, its most trustworthy historical partner. This has no doubt angered Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, both of whom view the Qatari-Turkish axis as a facilitator of the Muslim Brotherhood and other hostile Sunni Islamist movements in the region. The Saudis have tried and failed to court the Turks by promising them investments and weapons purchases. Turkey appears unwilling to abandon Qatar and the Sunni Islamic cause for the sake of UAE and Saudi money. Qatar still holds an important place in Ankara's foreign policy doctrine. The Turks have invested heavily in Qatar's sovereignty and long-term security, and are for the time being unwilling to let go of the Qataris. The feelings are mutual as far as the Qataris are concerned. Qatar is now the largest Gulf Arab investor in Turkey, which has greatly benefited the economies and businesses of both countries. Both countries still believe that the future generations of the Arab World will embrace "Islamic democracy" and reject antagonistic trends.

But Qatar's strategy was never to put all its eggs in one basket. As the former Qatari prime minister said in a recent speech he gave at Qatar University, Qatar's foreign policy objective is to forge alliances with as many faraway powers as possible in order to secure its long-term sovereignty. Indeed, Qatar has begun to court not only Turkey, but also Britain, Russia, China and India. Qatar has set up a Chinese Yuan clearing center in Doha to ease transactions between both countries. It has also invested in Russia's Gazprom, set up subsidiary airlines in India, and strengthened economic cooperation with London. In fact, this summer, Qatar is hosting many business conferences and events across the United Kingdom in order to encourage British businesses to open Middle Eastern branches in Qatar's newly created financial district in Doha. Last year, Qatar announced that it wants to transform its newly built Doha financial district into the "Wall Street of the Gulf". Of course, this has also unsettled the Emiratis, since the number one financial hub in the region right now is located in Dubai.

So there are also economic reasons behind the current rifts between Qatar and its neighbors. The UAE does not want to be outplayed by Qatar in its own financial game, but it appears that the Qataris are very serious about dethroning the UAE as the number one business destination of the Gulf region. This will no doubt deal a huge blow to the UAE's plan to become the strongest, most diversified and most sustainable economy in the region. Unlike Kuwait and Bahrain, which also hope to become financial hubs in the region, Qatar's attempt to become the financial center of the region is taken a lot more seriously by the UAE leaders. Qatar now has the most competitive and open economy in the region, as well as the fastest growing private sector. Without a doubt, these economic indicators are troubling the Emiratis. Another factor troubling the UAE is Qatar's natural gas reserves, which experts believe will not run out for the next 130 years, not to mention the fact that there are still many undiscovered natural gas reserves in Qatar. The UAE will run out of oil 70 years before Qatar will run out of its discovered natural gas reserves.

So there are a combination of economic, geographic and historical factors behind the ongoing rifts between Qatar and its neighbors, primarily the UAE.

In short, although Qatar's peninsular geography is helpful and somewhat of a natural deterrence, the country's extreme proximity to neighboring capitals is an annoyance, a cause for concern, and the main driving force behind Qatar's alignment with faraway powers. Also, Qatar's history of repeatedly getting attacked and harassed by its neighbors dictates that the country will never completely trust them. Economically, Qatar's strive for diversification and becoming the main financial hub of the region is upping the hostility that it's receiving from the likes of the UAE.

So what about the UAE and Saudi Arabia? Apart from their desire to eliminate the Muslim Brotherhood from the region, why else are they waging a propaganda war against Qatar? Well, the UAE wants to remain the number one financial and tourism hub in the region, and does not want Qatar to overtake places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi as the number one financial center of the Gulf. Secondly, the UAE is unhappy with Qatar's attempts to keep Yemen unified. It has become very clear by now that the UAE intends to divide Yemen into north and south. Abu Dhabi's support for the South Yemen separatists is being confronted by Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood factions of Yemen. The Qatari media has vilified the UAE over the last couple of weeks over its attempt to balkanize Yemen. In return, the UAE media has accused Qatar of supporting Islamist groups in Yemen, some of which have become a huge obstacle to the independence ambitions of the South Yemen movement.

I'll post more things about the UAE and the South Yemen movement in another thread. Again, this is another thing that many members around here have insulted me for exposing many months ago. A lot of UAE-based and Gulf-based members accused me of making things up when I said that the UAE was planning to break up Yemen and that it was building military bases in Socotra and Somaliland. Well, recent events show that everything I said before is turning out to be true.

So why is Qatar against the UAE's plan to break up Yemen? Well, there are many answers to that question:

1. Qatar believes that if the UAE breaks up Yemen, then South Yemen will become a secular and anti-Islamist country, which will strengthen the UAE's regional influence and weaken Qatar's.

2. Qatar also believes that this will strengthen the case for officially balkanizing other countries as well, such as Somalia, Libya, Syria and Iraq. This means that the north Somalian breakaway state of Somaliland will eventually receive international recognition. Somaliland, just like South Yemen, will be an anti-Islamist and secular state, which will no doubt mean that both Qatari and Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa will decline, just as Qatari and Turkish influence in Libya and Yemen will decline.

3. The UAE is also secretly supporting Kurdish and Kurdish-aligned secular groups in Syria and Iraq. The UAE has already publicly stated its support for Kurdish independence. Again, Qatar doesn't like this since it will diminish Qatari and Turkish influence in the Levant and Mesopotamia. Also, Kurdish statehood will weaken Qatar's best ally in the region, Turkey.

Okay, so what about Israel? Why is Israel with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and against Qatar?

1. Israel shares the UAE's goal of officially breaking up countries like Libya, Yemen, Somalia, etc. It also shares the UAE's policy of promoting anti-Islamist secularists at the expense of Islamists.

2. Israel shares the UAE's goal of helping the Kurds achieve independence. Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all believe that an independent Kurdistan will act as bulwark against both Islamist Turkey and Islamist Iran.

3. Israel and the UAE are secretly planning to oust Hamas from Gaza and replace them with a secular pro-UAE Palestinian group. In order for this to happen, Hamas must be weakened, and this means that both Qatar and Turkey must be stopped from helping Hamas.

Here's something interesting. A few weeks ago, Hamas declared that its cutting its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and that it no longer wishes to see the destruction of Israel. Many believe that this was Hamas's desperate attempt to convince Israel not to go with the UAE's plan of invading Gaza.

So what's going to happen? Who will win and who will lose? What will America do, if anything?

Well, a number of things might happen:

1. The UAE might stage a coup against the current emir of Qatar and replace him with elements of the Qatari ruling family who are willing to play second fiddle to Abu Dhabi and willing to cut all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni Islamist movements. Of course, in order for this coup to happen successfully, the Americans must accept it, otherwise it won't be allowed to take place. Another obstacle is Turkey, which already has a military base in Qatar, with well over 500 Turkish troops.

2. A coup might not necessarily occur, but Qatar might make a number of big concessions to the UAE, which includes staying out of the Yemeni war, staying out of the war in Libya, and not hosting Islamists in Doha.

3. The UAE might overextend itself and things might begin to backfire on Abu Dhabi. Increased hostility towards Qatar might strengthen Qatar's resolve and, ironically, push the Qataris even closer to the Iranians and Turks.

4. The American deep state might ironically use this as an opportunity to play the Qatari bloc and UAE bloc off against each other to ensure that neither bloc gets the upper hand.

Personally, I don't think Abu Dhabi or Riyadh will succeed in this current rift. Although the UAE and Saudi Arabia wish the Americans/Westerners will side with them against Qatar, the truth is the United States will not allow the UAE to establish a strong upper hand in the region, even though the UAE has helped the US in many places across the Middle East, particularly in Yemen. The truth, however, is that the Americans won't throw the Qataris under the bus. They will continue ensuring that there's a balance of power in the region, which obviously means that they won't allow the UAE or Saudi Arabia to succeed in subverting Doha.

Moreover, many foreign powers already have vested interests in Qatar's sovereignty. None of them will allow Abu Dhabi to cross the red lines.

So I actually think this is where the UAE might fumble for the very first time since the Arab Spring began. The UAE was bound to stretch itself too thin at some point, and this might just be the point where it does.

I think Qatar's resolve will actually strengthen and not get worse. Just like in 2014, it might offer a few symbolic gestures of goodwill to its neighbors, but it will continue pursuing a foreign policy that will run contrary to those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This will especially be true as Turkey, Qatar's best ally in the region, becomes more assertive in the region.

This was a FANTASTIC analysis.

That woman and her fantasies find her a husband already please...

Completely un-called for...

 

[帅的一匹]

The Middle East is totally in Chaos.........

 

[Muhammed45]

The Middle East is totally in Chaos.........

Thanks to USrael !!!
And welcome please don't forget the seat belt, ME is full of storms