Russo-Turkish war scenarios

[Ankit Kumar]

Does turkey have anything that reaches moscow?

It does have indirect access
Saudis have some Chinese IRBMs and Turkey can always look to their birader nation Pakistan.

 

[C130]

Bombed to dust. Do you think Turkey would surrender after a few missiles from Putin? What do you think it would take for Turkey to surrender?



In which case Turkey gains nothing by sitting back and waiting. Please reply with a realistic end game scenario, not fantasies of your ideal scenario.

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using these assets I would guess Russia in the first week of a war with Turkey and Turkey alone could fire over 500 long range missiles

hitting military and civilian targets.

Turkey can't do a damn thing to stop it either.

 

[T-72M1]

Doing a quantitative or qualitative comparison on their respective conventional assets and capabilities will make it immediately clear that without dragging NATO in, Turkey will be utterly destroyed by Russia.

 

[libertycall]

The Chinese support to Russia effort will only be economic, and I mean only that. If the Russia has Chinese backing,Russia will be ready to take up more risks to establish Asad .

I do not leave NATO as I feel without a backing, at least informal , Turkey and Arab states will not create another conflict, they will only engage in proxy wars.

As for Iran, I don't think they will do that.... they will only provide more weapons , intelligence and training to a large force of Shia , Pro Asad and Alawhite forces fighting or ready to fight in Syria.

Turkey has 600,000 troops and many more reserves it can call upon. It has an excellent airforce. It's probably weakest in terms of its naval forces.

How would Russia transport its weapons and equipment to try and prevent the Turkish military rolling into Syria?

The pro-Bashar forces at the moment are heavily dependent upon airsupport from Russia. How capable would they be of standing up to a Turkish assault?

Does turkey have anything that reaches moscow?

No. This explains their rapidly growing links with Ukraine.

It does have indirect access
Saudis have some Chinese IRBMs and Turkey can always look to their birader nation Pakistan.

Neither would provide those weapons.

 

[era_shield]

@libertycall I suggest ignoring braindead trolls like C130 who think Russia bombing Turkey is even a plausible scenario. You raised some good questions in your first post which I hope will get some thoughtful answers.

 

[monitor]

I've created this thread to look at ways that a Russo-Turkish conflict may develop.

Turkey has a formidable army ,and if it decides to use this army to create safe havens in Syria for the Syrian population which are free of PKK influence it's difficult in my view to see how Russia could respond.

Russia does of course have nuclear weapons but it's impossible to imagine a scenario where Russia would respond to a Turkish conventional military force in Syria with a nuclear strike.

In addition due to the distance there would be a substantially higher economic cost to Russia of waging such a war. A cost which could become even greater if Turkey prepared for the conflict by supporting Georgian, Adzerbaijani, and Ukrainian forces in drawing some of the attention of the Russian military.

Is it likely that Iran would intervene? Yes, but Iran has already intervened and any Iranian intervention would draw in the airforces of several other states in the region.

Your views are appreciated.

any direct conflcit between tow side will drag the world into a world war which every side will try to avoid

 

[libertycall]

@libertycall I suggest ignoring braindead trolls like C130 who think Russia bombing Turkey is even a plausible scenario. You raised some good questions in your first post which I hope will get some thoughtful answers.

I had hoped that this would be a serious discussion where people would think through the entire scenario from start to finish. Unfortunately, all I'm getting is half-baked nonsense from people who are fanboys of various weapon systems which they think will force one of the most powerful military forces in NATO to sue for peace within a few days. Magically according to their logic the Turkish military would also sit still and wait to be bombed by the Russians.

I'm waiting for people to reply back looking at the following factors:

1. In the event of a Russian intervention against Turkish forces, would the Turks be content to sit back and wait; or would they instead then decide to attack Damascus itself and remove Bashar from power. This would leave Putin with a fait accompli.

2. Would the Turkish people be prepared to tolerate Russian bombing of Turkey knowing that the end-game was a democratic state in Syria which would be allied with Turkey and hostile to the PKK which represents an existential threat to Turkey?

3. Consider this carefully. Vietnam had more bombs dropped on it than dropped by both sides during WW2. Vietnam is vastly smaller and has a lot less population than Turkey.

4. Turkey would have military support from GCC countries. I'm not sure whether this would mean GCC pilots would be willing to fight Russian forces but there are many other roles than direct dogfights.

5. If Iranian ground forces tried to intervene, it is a certainty that the GCC states as well as many others would bomb them.

Now please consider the above and other factors before posting fanboyish nonsense.

 

[XY1234]

I believe we should primarily analyze what is going on in Europe and the global arena. UK today confirmed that a possible BREXIT may happen this year. The EU lost his power on the global political arena and will become weaker in the next years. Who will protect Europe against Russians expansionist plans, if not NATO ? Russia occupied great territory in the last years, which was ex SU and won't stop. We should ask which country will be the next and fits in Russian expansionist plans ? Parts of Poland and the Baltic's ? Turkey will not enter Syria without a strong deterrent NATO alliance. Should Russia succeed in Syria, which is only a serious testing of the reaction of the civilized world, next step could be Libya, together with Egypt. Strong ties with Iran and modern arms delivery to the Tehran regime will increase Russian pressure in Caucasian and the Caspian on the neighboring countries. Russia and Iran agreed behind closed doors to increase their interests in that reason for their common profit. Especially to block gas and oil exports from the neighboring countries.That would mean conquering without occupying and taking economic responsibility, which was the main reason for the collapse of the SU. Israel is discussing his future policy which doesn't correlate with Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov today warned Israel not to strengthen hies ties with Turkey again. Same comment was made from Egypt. But Israel can not live in peace without a stable Turkey in that region. An independent Kurdish state wouldn't guarantee peace for Israel. We don't underestimate Arab nationalism and radicalism.At the first view it seems to be an advantage for Israel that the Arab world is burning but that will not last for ever. Israel will decide and that means the USA have to decide whom they will sacrifice. That decision will also reflect on Russia. The next elections in the USA will be a cutting edge for global peace.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Turkey has 600,000 troops and many more reserves it can call upon. It has an excellent airforce. It's probably weakest in terms of its naval forces.

How would Russia transport its weapons and equipment to try and prevent the Turkish military rolling into Syria?

The pro-Bashar forces at the moment are heavily dependent upon airsupport from Russia. How capable would they be of standing up to a Turkish assault?

1. The number of ground troops and assets , that is something Russia will not be able to face 1 on 1,no doubt about that.
2. Airforce, Turkey has a very decent Air force, but the single reason why Turkey hasn't shot down anymore aircrafts is because Russia has now enough assets in place to defend the corridor they want, ie From Damascus to Aleppo, not talking about eastern Syria which Russia won't care for that much.
3. Navy... now that's the main problem
In case of direct conflict between Turkey supported by its frendly Islamic nations vs Russia supported economically by China will mean destruction of Turkey.

In case of a war why will Russia not target Turkey directly,meaning why will they not take down the power stations, rail ,road and dams of Turkey?

And Turkey knows this, that's why they are trying to get NATO by their side.

 

[libertycall]

1. The number of ground troops and assets , that is something Russia will not be able to face 1 on 1,no doubt about that.
2. Airforce, Turkey has a very decent Air force, but the single reason why Turkey hasn't shot down anymore aircrafts is because Russia has now enough assets in place to defend the corridor they want, ie From Damascus to Aleppo, not talking about eastern Syria which Russia won't care for that much.
3. Navy... now that's the main problem
In case of direct conflict between Turkey supported by its frendly Islamic nations vs Russia supported economically by China will mean destruction of Turkey.

In case of a war why will Russia not target Turkey directly,meaning why will they not take down the power stations, rail ,road and dams of Turkey?

And Turkey knows this, that's why they are trying to get NATO by their side.

Ankit,

most of what you say is sensible but can we please not say things like 'will mean destruction of Turkey'? What does such a phrase mean? Does it mean 90 million Turks will suddenly give up?

At the moment Russia has only faced a fraction of Turkey's total air assets. There is no doubt that Russia has more assets than Turkey, but Russia also has far more enemies than Turkey who are steadily building up their forces in Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic states, Georgia etc. In addition it's certain that Israel may not want a democratic government in Syria, but equally it does not want a Shiite terrorist movement which has grown vastly more powerful because Israel did not become involved. In those circumstances can you see Israel passing on its own knowledge of measures to defeat Russia's airdefence systems?

And of course China may provide economic assistance to Russia but what does that mean? and will China be prepared to do that when it knows that this will result in severe future problems with GCC and other Muslims states now aligned with Turkey (18 at last count)?

 

[XY1234]

Possible scenario :

Turkey will close the straits

Russia will try to trespass - heavy casualties of the Russian Navy

Russia will try amphibious operations - Russian Black Sea Fleet will suffer heavy casualties

Russia will attack with his armored division from Armenia - heavy casualties on both sides, Turkey will stop aggressors

Most probably scenario Russia will attack Turkey with conventional missiles and bombers.

If Russia only targets military bases and Turkey's air-force will be caught on the ground as we caught the Egyptian air-force, Turkey will have not enough strike back and AD capability left.

The last option is the most critical one. Turkey has a good AEW and radar network.

Turkey could defeat a Russian airstrike. But what against a missile / Cruise Missile rain ?

Would NATO Missile shield work as excepted ?

If Turkish Air-force won't be caught on the ground they will for sure strike back Russian bases in fighter range.

If Russia targets dams, electric plants and highways. Turkey would strike comparable Russian targets.

We have a proverb " an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth" or Tit for tat.

 

[surya kiran]

Let us spice things up, shall we? What is a a Russo Turk discussion without Turks and the ever loving Chinese!

@cnleio @Sinan @Daneshmand @TaiShang @xunzi @Kiss_of_the_Dragon @Genesis @Neptune

Turkey can always look to their birader nation Pakistan.

Balssssssssss Pak will get involved in a suicide pact.

 

[jammersat]

Turks proved in the battle of Galipolli that they can be a force to reckon with , but again anyone has hardly heard about their battles with the russians ...

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Ankit,

most of what you say is sensible but can we please not say things like 'will mean destruction of Turkey'? WhatI does such a phrase mean? Does it mean 90 million Turks will suddenly give up?

At the moment Russia has only faced a fraction of Turkey's total air assets. There is no doubt that Russia has more assets than Turkey, but Russia also has far more enemies than Turkey who are steadily building up their forces in Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic states, Georgia etc. In addition it's certain that Israel may not want a democratic government in Syria, but equally it does not want a Shiite terrorist movement which has grown vastly more powerful because Israel did not become involved. In those circumstances can you see Israel passing on its own knowledge of measures to defeat Russia's airdefence systems?

And of course China may provide economic assistance to Russia but what does that mean? and will China be prepared to do that when it knows that this will result in severe future problems with GCC and other Muslims states now aligned with Turkey (18 at last count)?

On the term, may be you got it wrong.
Just think about it, what will worry the men in power more, a few thousand lives or losing their business?
The answer is later, I meant purely destruction of Turkish power supply, water and gas.... you see a starved population is more painful than a dead one.

On air assets , I purely mean Russia at present has enough to defend that small portion of area from Aleppo to Damascus and that's what Russia cares for in Syria and it has at present quite an extensive air defence network in place, no denying to that.

As for Turkish airforce, you see the Russians are not the only problem for them, they need a sizeable amount of air and land assets, in western areas too, apart from Greece , Russia has the capability to open up that front too.

As for other enemies of Russia, the biggest one is Ukraine. And the situation is not quite peaceful there as well, Russians are fighting there too, so I don't expect a big difference even if Ukraine ups its offensive.
Rest states like Poland, they are not risking anything without NATO approval, and because you said in the beginning that we are considering only Turkey supported by Saudi and coalition so I haven't counted NATO and its options.

As for Israel. The truth is amongst all this they are enjoying the middle east neighbours killing each other, and they will surely wish for more.

As for one person commenting that Turkey will attack Russian power stations and dams too, the question is about the capability.

As for Turks giving up, I haven't said so not do I expect it to happen.

 

[Timur]

Possible scenario :

Turkey will close the straits

Russia will try to trespass - heavy casualties of the Russian Navy

Russia will try amphibious operations - Russian Black Sea Fleet will suffer heavy casualties

Russia will attack with his armored division from Armenia - heavy casualties on both sides, Turkey will stop aggressors

Most probably scenario Russia will attack Turkey with conventional missiles and bombers.

If Russia only targets military bases and Turkey's air-force will be caught on the ground as we caught the Egyptian air-force, Turkey will have not enough strike back and AD capability left.

The last option is the most critical one. Turkey has a good AEW and radar network.

Turkey could defeat a Russian airstrike. But what against a missile / Cruise Missile rain ?

Would NATO Missile shield work as excepted ?

If Turkish Air-force won't be caught on the ground they will for sure strike back Russian bases in fighter range.

If Russia targets dams, electric plants and highways. Turkey would strike comparable Russian targets.

We have a proverb " an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth" or Tit for tat.

I agree with most of your scenario if it would come to a war..

but I think it would be a proxy war.. turkey could destabilisize russia in supporting chechens (maybe assasinating the russian chechen dog) and the other 20 million muslims waiting for freedom under russian dictatorship (that could drag in SA).. + support of ukrainian rebels and tatars

turkey cannot rely on anybody the pakistan friendship is ovverated - when it comes to india yes we would get 100% support but against russia I doubt it..
and you cannot trust arabs they are bothered with their own problems and some of them like egypt are havily untrustworthy

israels role is not clear for me.. they have a natural wish to keep us down but they need some ppl in the region who are not against them.. russian and iranian thread could bind us together but it depends on our hardliner politicians

iran is unpredictable but for sure they would jump in if russians would give them 100% support dont underesteminate the mullah secterian regime when it comes to secterianism and radicalism they are not different to wahabi sects (in my oppinion they are more radical with their ideology) formly they are wainting for an opportunity it doesn't matter if they use certain puplic figures as excuse for their grudge.. they would find something else..

so I think it could be more a ground operation with direct russion troops and undirect turkish troops (supported rebels)