Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Dustom9]

@gambit

Did you remember we had talked about who is in charge of the overall battlefield a few days ago and I have said that no one is (Well, I actually joked that Putin is in charge)

CNN did a very good discussion with Maj Gen. James Mark today about who's actually in charge of the Russian overall battlefield command (C2) in Ukraine, and according to DoD. They don't seems to be able to pin it on any particular general either.

God, that's good, because I thought I was the crazy one.

come up and comment when you are on.

So! May be Russian ground forces did more than Pentagon hoped.

 

[vizier]

Yes that is why Ukrainians may fight to the death at Mariopol

The weather is now favourable to the Ukrainians unlike at Stalingrad.

That is true but in return if general a ceasefire is reached momentum of Russian attacks would stop. They can at least recover without being slowly encircled in the east and betting on time and Russian collapse of supplies and economy and both sides can negotiate instead of trying to gain the upper hand by military which seems not possible for both sides in the near term and residents will suffer for a long time.

Also if one side breaks the ceasefire the other will gain support like better weapon supplies( high altitude anti air ones if they give mariopol and in danger of encirclement) in case of Russia breaking the ceaesfire starting encirclement or Russia can convince other Eu countries that it previosly had good relations with like Germany to not to give support if Ukraine breaks ceasefire before negotiations end. There can be leverages for both sides after the ceasefire.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506295174661611529

 

[jhungary]

There is a dilemma there. If the Ukr soliders leave Mariopol the freed up Ru soldiers would easily encircle the Ukr forces in the east or Ukr soldiers have to retreat. Unless a ceasefire in certain sectors in place to gain time Ukraine will do counter attacks in west and attrition as much as possible in Mariopol keeping the Russian forces busy. If for example a general ceasefire( it may include slowing down weapon supplies to Ukraine so no gearing up for counter attack) is reached or at least a limited unconditional ceasefire in certain eastern sections connected to mariopol and encirclement is not an issue they can order Ukr forces to leave north of Mariopol. But ceasefires are fragile that is another issue they can easily be encircled if it is broken.

A general ceaseifre would be more durable that includes measures like no weapon flow from both Polish border and no Russian side armor pouring in and it would give time for negotiations. Russia already took large amount of land which would possibly include Mariopol as well after ceasefire.

Actually, there are 2 things you leave out.

1.) The majority of firepower the Russian have is down south, Kherson front have not been moved since maybe day 10 (after they captured Kherson) the force there is putting into defensive position, suggested that they had hollow out everyone toward the Mariupol front. If I am Ukrainian, I will try to counter attack Kherson, that may relief some pressure off Mariupol.

2.) It would also depends on how much Ukrainian can grind down the Russian force. It's one thing if Russian were able to capture the city (which as I mentioned couple of time, never any doubt) but another thing is to look at what kind of force that was left after they have captured the city, if they loses too many troop trying to capture the city, They can't push, because they would have to leave behind a garrison and depending on the actaul casualty number, there may not be enough well stocked troop to move up especially when it was heavily contested during the last 20 days.

That would affect the defensive posture the Ukrainian is going to take. Because if the Russian cannot effectively encircle the Donbas defender (The OG since 2014) then the Ukrainian could technically afford to put the flank up by refusing it and basically fighting a 2 sided defence. On the other hand, if Russia have enough troop to encircle the Donbas defender, then it will force the Ukrainian to either push to a secondary defend line thru Dnipro to Kharkiv, or even all the way along Dnieper River.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506292891290943492

 

[Amliunion]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506296777900711954

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506298334914437129

 

[jhungary]

So! May be Russian ground forces did more than Pentagon hoped.

No, even I can see the Russia are fighting 3 front separately and not in a mutually supported position a couple of days ago, you don't need a Major General to tell you that.

I thought you went to defence college??

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506298334914437129

Ukrainian army and partisans are attacking every supply truck they see,in front or behind Russian lines.

At this rate,losing a supply truck is even more devastating than losing a tank.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505850950061367297

 

[Amliunion]

Another Ukrainian Propaganda Busted:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506284843876896775

 

[LeGenD]

Another Ukrainian Propaganda Busted:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506284843876896775

This is random footage - it proves nothing.

 

[Amliunion]

This is random footage - it proves nothing.

Same applies to what Kyiv says about this plant has stopped functioning.

 

[Dustom9]

No, even I can see the Russia are fighting 3 front separately and not in a mutually supported position a couple of days ago, you don't need a Major General to tell you that.

I thought you went to defence college??

Russia are certainly fighting multiple fronts, biggest of it being propaganda and dis information.
Ukraine is nearly down, few more weeks or months but US ownership of conflict is certainly on a crumble.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506303038599925763

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506303039489073156

 

[vizier]

Actually, there are 2 things you leave out.

1.) The majority of firepower the Russian have is down south, Kherson front have not been moved since maybe day 10 (after they captured Kherson) the force there is putting into defensive position, suggested that they had hollow out everyone toward the Mariupol front. If I am Ukrainian, I will try to counter attack Kherson, that may relief some pressure off Mariupol.

2.) It would also depends on how much Ukrainian can grind down the Russian force. It's one thing if Russian were able to capture the city (which as I mentioned couple of time, never any doubt) but another thing is to look at what kind of force that was left after they have captured the city, if they loses too many troop trying to capture the city, They can't push, because they would have to leave behind a garrison and depending on the actaul casualty number, there may not be enough well stocked troop to move up especially when it was heavily contested during the last 20 days.

That would affect the defensive posture the Ukrainian is going to take. Because if the Russian cannot effectively encircle the Donbas defender (The OG since 2014) then the Ukrainian could technically afford to put the flank up by refusing it and basically fighting a 2 sided defence. On the other hand, if Russia have enough troop to encircle the Donbas defender, then it will force the Ukrainian to either push to a secondary defend line thru Dnipro to Kharkiv, or even all the way along Dnieper River.

Leaving Mariopol would put Ukrainian forces in the east at risk of encirclement that is why it can be part of a general ceasefire deal that would make both sides gain something and accept. It would be a security guarantee for Ukraine to not be encircled and if ceasefire is broken especially western side will get populated with better weapon support like high altitude sam cover. Sams(hawk,patriot etc.) installed in west of Dniper can cover some area in estern parts that troops can take limited cover from air attacks and make counter attacks to east and south if they retreat west if ceasefire is broken by Russia. Russia would gain Mariopol and use the gained land in negotiations also during negotiations counter Ukraine attacks to its positions in south would stop and gearing up of Ukraine from western borders would stop.

Troop losses would be high in Mariopol capture but if Russia transfers volunteers to attack Mariopol most casualties would come from some 40k volunteers as an initial wave of attack. There would still be soldiers left to encircle the eastern Ukraine forces in the north but it would take time and economic conditions-supplies that Ru army is getting.