Russia – Ukrainian War 2022
Day 7 Update
Introduction
as stated before, I will write another write up on the 7th day of the war, because today will be a major milestone of an initial war, and the 7th day mark is always a good indicator as how both side fare and what would happen latter on.
This article will deal with matter that’s purely military, not the BS take from either side political. I tried to be as neutral as possible in this write up and just look at the military decision made up to this point as a former Military Officer myself.
CURRENT SITUATION
This is the current tactical map as of 1700 03/03/2022 AEST
As the map suggested, Russian gain are largely unchanged since day 4. With the exception of some small city (Berdiansk, Melitopo) Kherson is in doubt as of the time of writing. While Mariupol and Kharkiv is still under siege, and Kyiv is about to.
That suggested a 96-120 hours delay of the objective on the Russian side, and that is a serious delay on the time table and this is, in my opinion, is going to affect the long term strategic goal for Russia negatively.
Also worth notice that the Russian vector of invasion does not cover all the rural area, so that may have a detrimental effect on Russia’s war goal, that mean the spearhead can be attacked and flanked and the route of advance is not completely secure
What is cleared to see also is the method of operation has changed from the original multi-pronged surgical fast strike into more of a siege warfare. With Russia laying siege on several Ukrainian cities (At this point, Kharkiv and Mairupol)
TACTICAL ANALYSIS
Tactically the Russian have the upper hand, with their invasion vector largely be able to carry out what they were planned to carry out without much resistance, resistance, however, is expected in heavily populated city center.
On Russian part, the pressure is building around major city such as Kharkiv and Kyiv, and hopefully delivers a decisive blow to the Ukrainian government. The center of gravity is still Kyiv, which would have been the first or second day objective, now 7 days in, the city still stand
On Ukrainian part, the tactical situation is that they do not have enough people (trained people, not Territorial Defence Force) to defend every inch of the country, and the Ukrainian are poised to defend every major city, and probably using smaller city and vita infrastructure as point of delay attack.
Russia route of advance also speak volume, the multi-axis attack aimed at destablising the Ukrainian government has stymied, with advance now slow in the north and east, while the southern advance is the only advance that see some territorial gain. Which suggesting the Russian is focusing on cutting the coastline from Ukraine. And to do that, two major cities have to be taken. Odessa and Mauripol, as of now, both remain in Ukrainian hand.
On the other hand, the Russia tactics seems to be trying to divided the country by pinning the majority of Ukrainian regular troop in the East (with the greatest concentration, 6 Brigade and the West and isolate the North to South Axis, which is where most of the fight as of now, took place.
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
First of all, several strategic mistake were committed on both side
Ukrainian Mistake
The prime mistake the Ukrainian made is the ignoring of US/UK intelligence that Russia is going to invade as early as November 2021. Had Ukrainian act on the US/UK intelligence and mobilise in November 2021, they could have doubled the effective Military size, given the training and equipment to arm them would have provided within that 3 months. (Bear in mind US Army basic infantry course is just 13 weeks) This will make the Russian advance a lot harder.
Another issue I have found with how Ukrainian conduct its warfare is that I don’t think the Ukrainian have effectively used the rural area at all, If you look at the vector of advance, those area are unguarded, which mean a single mobile Brigade utilising the rural area would have detrimental effect on the Russian advance. Take the 40 mile convoy for example, a mobile brigade moving between area would have caused havoc in these slow moving convoy in a series of hit and run. However, Ukrainian, also using former Soviet Union tactics, (basically what we see here is Russia fighting Russia) dictate static defence, the “never give an inch” style last stand defence.
Inability to defend or denied Russia use of key infrastructure. The first stage of battle see Russia try to invade south thru the forest area and got beaten down by Ukrainian defence, and only finding undefended roadway to travel, numerous time we can see the local, not military ( from the video of the man offer to tow the Russian BMP to numerous civilian crowded the advancing Russian on the street) Sure, As I said there are not enough troop to lay ambush but that does not mean they cannot deploy delay action or rear guard action on those Russian, or at the very lease “Mined” the area, which I know for sure the road is not mined because civilian still use it for travel (either that or Ukrainian really have some balls)
Russian Mistake
Logistics – A great USMC general once said “Amateur talks Tactics, Professional study Logistic” (Which would make me an Amateur)…. Anyway, logistic is probably
THE problem the Russian military is facing at this point. A I mentioned day 7 is crucial because that would be the time when your original LOGPAK runs out and you are going to look for FARP or Forward Fuel Depot for gas. This is exactly what the 40 mile convoy supposed to do, only that they are stuck on the way to Kyiv, they were supposed to be in Kyiv, ALREADY by now. I don’t know what you see in that 40 mile convoy, for me it spell under prepare. First, you don’t run anything that long, that slow inside the enemy territories and front line. That is a prime target. Second, a 40 mile convoy means they are depending on trucks to resupply, this would be okay for what we called “general store” item such as toilet paper, replacing clothing or furniture, but not Priority item such as food, ammunition and gas. Those are brought in by air. Which bring me to mistake number 2
Russia has NOT achieved total superiority. 7 days in, we can still see aerial engagement between the two country, Drone are continue to fly as usual, not too many airfield is captured by the VDV (In fact, they had only capture one, Antonov Airfield but we still getting unconfirmed report stating they are still fighting in there. Compare to OIF, 173 ABN Brigade took Bashur on day 5, and turn it to logistic hub for the eventual Battle for Baghdad, British Captured Basra International Airport on day 4. It is one thing not to be able to neutralise enemy air power, but another thing not to Capture and turn the airfield into use on future engagement. Judging from the dependence of ground convoy, Russia are either unable or unwilling to use airport as a supply route. Which mean long traffic jam and people don’t know where they are going. And I don’t see a red ball system here.
Initial Miscalculation, what almost everyone expected when Russian started this war is that they are going to break Ukraine as a matter of days, not weeks. NATO did not supply Ukraine weapon and other supply until day 4 suggesting NATO planner think they are going to fold in the first 3 days, and do so only realise they are still within their reasonable parameter of resistance. So why this is like this? For starter, I think Russia seriously underestimated Ukrainian Warfighting capability, this is what I will think because I myself don’t think Ukrainian would put up such as fight. On another ends, we see Russian using inadequate and sometime unmotivated troop to fight the war. War is a nasty business, who you choose for your campaign matter as much as the campaign itself. During D-Day, Omar Bradley specifically requested 1st Infantry division and the Ranger to start the initial phase and a fresh division to support the first wave, that being the first (division) and the Ranger is battle harden and they know what to do, and they need people who are motivated s a fresh division is needed. War does not just fight with random troop you pick up from a random corner of your battlefield; you choose your troop especially for the task. This is NOT done on the Russian part. Which lead to the initial miscalculation.
Multi-Axis Advance, I get it, the initial goal is Kyiv, and the Port city is important too. But the use of multi-axis advance, something very apparent that Russia have no idea how to operate and how to support is an issue, and if you try to attack everywhere at once, and you ended up failing to reach anywhere. If you want Kyiv, concentration your firepower on Kyiv, and then move toward other city along your axis of advance, sure, you can station your force somewhere and pin down enemy concentration, but do so with a more decisive manner. And not committed half the troop here and half the troop there and hoping you can get there on time.
Strategic Limitation
For Ukraine, that’s manpower. Sure, Ukraine has a 45 million population but their available force is just north of 200,000, which mean anyone who are conscript into TDF, they are expected to fight with local garrison and defend their city as a sort of general mobilisation. The tradition Western response to Soviet Tactics is to use a mobile force that can manoeuvre in an around the giant Russia spearhead, once the giant Russian force pin you down, then you are fighting the Russian fight, and mostly game over. And you can’t do that if you only have 200,000 troop know what to do for the entire country
TDF is to bolster the city defence, they are useless as an offensive force, and they also cannot function alone as a defensive force. They are only a supplement.
For Russia, that’s time. The longer it drag on, the more money, manpower and resource intensive the war get, and Russia is running out on all 3. With Russian sanction, and domestic pressure on the war, any sort of “mobilisation” are going to meet resistance, you cannot mobilise unless the public is willing to be mobilised. And with sanction, that is going to hurt Russian capability to pay for material and import material to replace lost, which mean the further it got drag on, the harder for Russia to replace their lost. In effect, you are losing Warfighting Power as time goes by.
RUSSIAN ENDGAME
While it’s too early to tell, but by looking at the axis of advance and the preparation and strategic opearation, the end game for Russia is cut the country in half thru a line between Mairupol to Dnipro then to Kyiv (as picture) along with the south end to the west to cover the entire coast, Russia will administer the area left of demarcation line (effectively become Russia territories) and the rest will be administrated by a Russian installed Ukrainian government.
End game is a regime change, with Russian install a government to control Ukraine. With the possible southern end (thru Kherson and Odessa) to be used as a springboard for future territorial gain in Moldova.
PREDICTION
This is still too early to call, before this start I can tell you with 100% certainty that Russia will achieve what they set to achieve, however, now? I am not too sure, I gave the chance of Ukrainian survival 10% on day 4, on day 7, I think the chances improved a bit, I will say Ukrainian have 15-20% chance to defeat the Russian. Because from what I see on the map, the result is far from certain.
If we look at the map, the battle plan and end games depends on several factors, which Russia still has not show they have achieve that even after day 7. The country side is still largely untouched, which means Ukrainian only need to have 1 hand defeated or rendered ineffective, the entire situation would have been turn against Russia. And the black arrow on the maps suggest Russian force axis of advance is prone to getting flank, and if Ukraine can somehow disengage some troop (Maybe a Brigade) to conduct mobile warfare, that would hamper those advance shown in black arrow. On the other hand, US Intelligence suggested that Russia have used 75% of the invasion force, which mean they are running out of tactics reserve, which mean they cannot afford any error, both strategic or tactical. Otherwise, it would have to dip into their strategic reserve, which I don’t know if they have any
On the other hand, if the end game is what I predicted, then Russia would need to take 5 key cities (Mariupol, Odessa, Dnipro, Kyiv and Kharkiv.) None of the 5 were fallen. And Odessa and Dnipro is largely Untouched too. The only one close to falling is Mariupol and Kharkiv but we have been saying this for days. So all these are uncertainty. What’s more? Russia is running out of time. Tradition battle would require a Logistic Update every 7 days, and I don’t see any FARP set up for the first 7, which mean the troop in the frontline is running on empty, and the frontline troop itself needs to be replace every 28 days, you can extend it if you have momentum but Russia lost that in the first 7 days, which mean again, as I said, if by day 21, if all of the key objective is not taken, then there will be a problem, and day 21 is only 13 days away. Can they really do that seeing the first 7 days progress?
Another issue I foresee is that now Russia revert to plan B (or Plan A if you think they should have done it initially), siege warfare and massive artillery bombardment would antagonise Civil Population, you don’t make friend by bombing their home. Which make the future plan for Moscow to install a puppet government in doubt, unless there are continue Russian occupation outside their annexation zone. Which mean insurgent warfare, which will turn Moscow position even more untenable
Future insurgency is also a problem, I am very sure (90%) that Russia will not or cannot occupied the entire country, which mean some part of Ukraine have to be delegated by a unpopular puppet regime (I don’t think there are any doubt no one in Ukraine will support that regime, seeing how far they go to defend Ukraine from Russia) which mean Russia theoretically need to conquer or occupy some part in the West to counter the future insurgency, and given they did not achieve any of their key objective on the first 7, unlikely they are going to get all of them by day 14 and slightly possible for the Russian to go beyond 21 days, it’s virtually impossible at this point the Russian have any ability to wage war simultaneously in the western part of the country, which will make it rebellion central.
And finally, can Russia even lasted that long? Russian economy is, in no other word, crumbing, Russia Rouble lost 30% of value toward USD and other currency due to sanction and despite Russian central bank emergency measure to propped up the currency, which mean they have s far failed to do that, and I can’t see they can ever do that unless China help them, which I don’t currently see this is what Chinese is doing (Hence the freefall) and wonder if China will ever do it in the first place. You need money to keep the war going, and money run dry by day unless you can somehow replenish it, and I failed to see how Russia is going to get the economy back up.
FAQ
Why Russia invasion did not make any head way?
Numerous factor, the most clear is they either miscalculated Ukrainian response, or underestimated Ukrainian ability to defend their country. Either way, this is a strategic error by Russia. Another factor is that they somehow failed to gain Air Superiority over Ukraine, and most likely Russia underestimate EU response to the conflict I Ukraine. EU literally goes all out to help the Ukrainian.
Why Russia did not attack Ukrainian Infrastructure.
This is a good question, many people think that is because Putin have softside with Ukraine, want to leave it untouched as much as possible and easier for them to take over. But if this is the end goal, then a political invasion would be used, and no an actual invasion, you don’t invade people to see if they want to surrender. You invade someone to fight someone, it’s no point BSing yourself or anyone else.
The reason why those item (TV, Radio Station and Power Station) is simple, it no longer a factor. I mean since when is the last time you watch TV? Or Listening to Radio. Today information is all about internet and social media, and while Russia did try to shut down Ukrainian Internet and then Ukrainian switch to Satellite Internet thanks to Elon Musk. Unless Russia send some missile and bring down some Space X satellite, they are not going to take out Ukrainian Internet. Notice that most of Zelenskyy present is social media, since the war start, he is frequently seen on Twitter and Telegram or other social media network. Which mean the value of striking the TV stationor Radio Station have decreased multiple fold since the advance of social media technology and as I said, you cannot shut down Ukrainian internet.
Power on the other had is tricky, bear in mind Ukraine is mostly powered by 5 Nuclear Power Station that was already fuctioning, which mean you cannot bomb them or you are risking a nuclear incident, so the only viable option is to take them by force, which they took 1, Chernobyl, which is off line anyway. Nuclear Power Plant in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Yuzhnoukrainsk and Enerhodar thus continue to provide Ukrainian with power. That probably is the true reason why those are untouched.
Are there any chance Ukrainian could win?
Theoretically, no In Reality? Not sure, first of all, we know two things for sure, the only way for this war to stop is for Russian to stop, Second thing we know is there are not enough Russian troop to occupy the entire country.
So what does that translate to? Even if Ukrainian lost all their major city, that does not mean it’s game over for them, unlike Russian Operation in Syria, this is not done with majority support of the country (Assad held at least 60% of Syria when Russia intervene, the 2 rebel region hold less than 7%) Which mean you are looking at insurgency and continual resistance. Plus EU already announced that they will finance Ukrainian expense, which will make Ukraine look like Soviet Adventure in Afghanistan.
This is going to be hard for Russia, especially with sanction applies.
What is Russia Political or Strategic Gain?
You have to get something in a war, be it money, oil, gold or salt (If you are talking about Roman time) This have no strategic gain other than try to control Ukraine. I am not sure Russia can holdout even if Russia annexed Eastern Ukraine, again, it’s about personal gain more than National Gain. Putin in his mind think Ukraine belong to him with all the Russian rhetoric, but that does not mean so, and there are no Political gain for him either, because the “Political” goal is to push NATO border away from Russia, but what Putin is doing by invading and at least annexing Southern Half of Ukraine is Push the border into NATO, which relatively is the same thing but instead of the 2 NATO member country that border him before (Latvia and Estonia), now is 4 (Latvia, Estonia, Romania and Poland) and may even be 5 if Finland join NATO.
In effect, what Putin is doing is “extending” the border he is facing with NATO. On the other hand, even if he wins, he is looking at the situation of a status quo, only to wind back to 2014. So I don’t actually see any Strategic or Political gain Russia have come out of this.
