Corax
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Numerically speaking, Ukraine would need hundreds of fighter-bombers to make a difference, so from that perspective, 20-something F-16s would not make a dent considering at the onset of the war, the VKS outgunned the UkAF 1000-something to 100-something. On the other hand, the reason the VKS was largely ineffective over Ukraine has more to do with doctrines than with technical capabilities of the aviation fleet. The losses the VKS suffered were more of that lack of effective combat doctrines than because of Ukrainian air defense. Am not making jabs at the Ukrainians because you have to exploit any and all weaknesses your opponents exposed. The issue with doctrines is that it is almost impossible to change them on the fly. You can have individual wings or even down to the squadron level that can modify specific tactics to suit unique combat situations that may continue to exist or may never be seen again. Doctrines are force wide so what is an 'issue' is now a genuine problem for Russia. The VKS war time doctrines apparently have been static since the collapse of the SU. Borders changed and with those changes came different geopolitics. Newer technologies displaced older ones. So for 30+ yrs, the VKS never changed with the world.
What the F-16 WILL do is force the UkAF to create a new way of waging an air war over its own country. Some F-16 tactics will not be applicable because those tactics requires the support of other platforms such as AWACS or ground controllers, leaving individual squadrons to innovate on their own. Now think back to WW II vis-a-vis the Flying Tigers in China against JPN. That is how the F-16 will be employed over Ukraine.
The F-16 is visually difficult to discern, even when loaded with two externals for longer distance sorties. So one usage would be for the F-16 to strike into Russia proper just over the Ukr-Rus border. With US/NATO AWACS providing 'look ahead' info, Ukr F-16s can avoid Russian ground radar systems and possible VKS intercepts.
This is one yr ago...
Russian Jets Flying 200 Sorties a Day, But Firing from Their Own Airspace, Pentagon Says
Ukraine is also being conservative with its airpower.www.defenseone.com
...Russia has surface-to-air missiles, or SAMs, in enough locations that it can shoot down Ukrainian jets in almost all parts of the country,...
The deeper into Russia, the greater the political apprehension between the US, Russia, and the EU. The F-16 is flexible enough to strike along the borders and survive. Breadth, not (yet) depth.
Since the Ukr F-16 will not air refuel because that would require US/NATO involvement, we can eliminate complex missions so that would be points A to B then back to A, unlike Desert Storm where the US had literally mission changes while our jets were in the air. Even if Ukr F-16s have US/NATO AWACS support, Ukr F-16s will still be limited to whatever fuel each jet carries, so most of the time, it would still be A-B-A. Ukr F-16s cannot afford to fly into international airspace to air refuel because that would require constant US/NATO coordination which would increase political tensions between the US, Russia, and the EU, so it is back to A-B-A again. As long as the VKS remains doctrinally incompetent, Ukr F-16s can maintain the Flying Tigers style air guerrilla warfare to its advantage.
The four-ship is combat tested and no air force is better than US at using it. For a small jet with maximum human G tolerance like the F-16, the four-ship is practically ideal against SAM sites. The flight would break up into attacking pairs and engage from different directions at different altitudes. The SAM site has no choice but to engage at least one direction probably at or near maximum range in order to refocus to the other attacker pairs. The problem for the SAM site is precisely because the F-16 has that high-G capability at constant airspeed. It reduces the F-16's reorient time on the target, basically, a smaller turning circle. One pair evade the missiles while the other closes. The first attackers can even launch a HARM to force the SAM site to momentarily shut off its radar. Because modern technology reduces that re-engage time, coordination between the pairs is critical and training specifically for this tactic is required, but do-able against Russian SAM sites because the F-16 can data link to all attackers as to who is doing what at when. Another trick the F-16 done in Desert Storm was the EM decoy against SAM sites to increase survivability in closer engagement ranges. Two four-ship against a single SAM site pushes the odds of combat success over the 50/50 threshold. Three four-ship is practically guaranteed. The major problem for Russia remains the same -- doctrinal incompetence. Even if Russia has 100 SAM sites, the destruction of just one WILL be psychologically damaging because if one site is destroyed on Monday, who is to say Tuesday or Thursday will be any different? Ukr F-16s does not have to produce mass casualties. Just as the Flying Tigers created gaps in JPN's logistic lines, Ukr F-16s can create gaps on Russia's border radars.
Just a few thoughts on what the F-16 can do for Ukraine without US/NATO involvement.
The failure of the Russians is actually the story of the failure of the VKS. Among the many shockingly poor performance on display by the Russians, the VKS is the worst. What we're witnessing in Ukraine is the decay it has suffered since the collapse of the SU. Not only have they not adapted their training and doctrinal capabilities, but they haven't actually done any real R&D and develop capable new platforms. Aside from lukewarm upgraded Flanker variants, and even those largely funded by foreign deals with China and India, the Felon is too little to late. And let's not even start with the army and navy.
