Reashot Xigwin
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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2
- Thread starter waz
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Reashot Xigwin
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Look how the mighty have fallen.
alimobin memon
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Super impressive. Mind blowing indeed. This way single tank can engage multiple targets.
Btw
Ramzan kadyrov rumored poisoned ?
F-22Raptor
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F-22Raptor
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jhungary
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Actually, Russia have about 20 days more of offensive time before they have to culminated. So far they do not make any progress except in Bakhmut.
This is considered a lot better situation than most people predicted back in late 2022, including myself, I have forecasted a much greater territorial loss for Ukraine back in Dec/Nov 2022 come Spring Offensive (we are already in Spring by the way) While I do not predict an actual percentage, but most people are looking at 5% or more territorial gain by Russia, there are no way they can achieve that 5% now (Bakhmut is not even 1% of Ukraine Territorial gain, that just show you how small that city was) and for some reason the Russia are focusing their effort in Bakhmut and did not use their force to push south (into Zaporizhazia) and north (back into Kupiansk) They tried really hard to press into Vuhledar and a more or less haphazard push into Lyman and Torske. Both failed as of the time I wrote this.
Remember that is with the input of at least 150,000 - 200,000 new troop and that is the current situation we can think off, that's almost the number of the original offensive, and they made 17% gain on the original Feb 24 invasion...
And after April (April-June would most likely be used to stabilise the line), we are expecting an Ukrainian Counter Offensive to be launched in June, unless Russia can suddenly capture more land than they did now, and Ukrainian did so poorly compare to the previous offensive, this may be a line breaking counter offensive for the Ukrainian. Russia simply did not create a big enough buffer for the upcoming counter offensive if all they do is make progress in Bakhmut...
jhungary
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You are ALWAYS going to advance if you put 150,000-200,000 new troop into battle. That will UNDOUBTEDLY affect the balance of the battlefield, even I said back in Nov/Dec 2022 Ukraine is bracing for another Territorial Loss.
How much you can advance is the real issue here, because we all know Western tanks are coming in the Summer, that's 3 to 5 Armour Brigade worth, that's only means one thing, that's a big Ukrainian counter push is coming. That would roll back territories. The problem is, Russia had 3 advances, only 1 (Bakhmut) is going well for them, that does not make enough a buffer to push back a counter offensive that's you know it's coming.
Most Western Intel put the territorial loss at 5% or more (the lowest I saw is 5%) and the Russian didn't even did 1% as of now, and we are talking about a good 6-to-7-week push (It started late January) There are only 4 weeks until Ukrainian ground get soggy again, and then the Russian offensive has to end, unless suddenly Russia is picking up their pace at around 4000% and make up the gain they didn't made the last 6 or 7 weeks in the next 4, they aren't going to make enough gain to fend off a counter offensive that they know it is coming.
F-22Raptor
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I’m really hoping Ukrainian command is using Bakhmut as a holding action for the majority of Russian forces and that they are deploying forces to the south when the ground dries to push for Melitopol. Hopefully they don’t have tunnel vision on holding the city.
Vergennes
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An interesting analysis, translated from French.
Battle of Bakhmut, the trap into which the Ukrainians did not fall
Bataille de Bakhmut, le piège dans lequel les Ukrainiens ne sont pas tombés
« Bakhmut est dans une situation très difficile » Des mots choisis par le président Zelensky pour annoncer que cette ville ukrainienne, qui n’est plus qu’un tas de ruines, est sur le poin…
nepassubir-fr.translate.goog
jhungary
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I am pretty sure Ukraine is using their entire frontline as a holding action to pin those Russian in place. The goal is the same along the line, to draw as many Russian in and eliminate as many as you can, because once it's Ukrainian turn to make an offensive, the less Russian holding the line is better, and you don't need to be a general to know that.
The problem for Russia is that this offensive is really lack luster, well, at least up to this point, Ukrainian soil is going to be soggy with the rain and storm coming in Late March and Early April that mean Russian offensive is going to stop, because it hamper both logistic (which is very bad to begin with) and moving in heavy equipment. I would say April to May is most likely both side trying to stabilise the frontline, with not much territorial exchanges.
On the other hand, I really don't know what Russia is doing, If it was me, I would want to go North and South, try to retake Kupiansk and try top break up Ukrainian force in Zaporizhzhia so they can't launch an offensive there and cut off the entire Southern line, because if Ukraine is manage to drive into Melitopol or even Mariupol, that's game-set-match for Ukraine, Russia would have to deal with an entire front being relocated to the East, and if Russia loses Savtove as well, then that just no coming back, both objective is 10 times more important than taking Bakhmut, because you are going no where with it. You will need to retake Lyman and Izyum to actually threaten the rest of Donetsk. And if Russia loses Svatove, they have to withdraw from pre-2022 position anyway or their entire line is going to get flanked.
If I was Russian high command, my priority goes Zaporizhzhia > Svatove/Kupiansk > Bakhmut......
Russian Slow Grind Tactics Working Brilliantly. I agree with the analysis in this and also believe once Bakhmut is taken, Russia will look to consolidate the liberated territory. The ball is then in Ukraine's court. Seek peace, or lose further land with another Russian Hell March into Kiev.
Bass, Treble and Volume Full Gents.
