Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Oldman1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569870269191229440

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569814406707687424

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569712907604082688

Seems like mass mobilization in Russia will also remain a pipe dream

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569712907604082688

Seems like mass mobilization in Russia will also remain a pipe dream

Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine, with millions of unemployed. They don't need a full mobilization to have sufficient man power. The new 3rd corps is a good example. With incentives of cash and reward of plots of land in Ukraine, as well as a chance to be a hero which ups your chance of getting a nice lady, plenty of poor and unemployed folks sign up to join.

3rd Army Corps (Russia) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Oldman1]

What's more, the entire Northern Logistic Base is gone, now if Russian ship any stuff from Belgorod, it will just end up with the Ukrainian. They would need to build a railway network in Rostov (The next closest supply point) and then establish a staging area in Rostov all before Winter or the Russian troop are going to make with their thumb up their arse in the cold without food, clothes and ammunition, because there are no railway network to Ukraine in Rostov, which mean if Russia want to supply their force in Ukraine, they would need to bring them in by plane or truck, bringing supply by plane in the frontline without air superiority is more or less suicide, and we all know what Russia is capable with Trucks, but this time they can't afford to have a 40 miles convoy, because this time Ukrainian will be waiting with HIMARS and MLRS or even Caesar Artillery system for them. Which mean they would have to relocate and rebuild the entire supply network from Belgorod to Rostov in about a month, even the Chinese cannot do that....

Looks like the only European that is going to get frozen in this winter is the Russian fighting in Ukraine.

If they try to bring in trucks in Luhansk region to support any offense, they will be ambushed by troops waiting besides the ones you mentioned with artillery and missiles.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

If they try to bring in trucks in Luhansk region to support any offense, they will be ambushed by troops waiting besides the ones you mentioned with artillery and missiles.

Luhansk is hardcore rebels. Luhansk rebels are some of the best warriors in the world. They can even kick American army's arse.

Luhansk People's Republic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jhungary]

The Ukrainians can use those helos like over the rivers to deliver them behind the lines or find gaps in defensive lines to send in troops to cause chaos. Even with the danger of SAMs or MANPADs. Most likely be using them at night time instead of daytime that led to the fiasco Black Hawk Down.

Normal Blackhawk can't do what you said here. You will need PAVEHAWK to do all that SOF thing. You can try to get a Blackhawk with Night Vision package, but I think you will need to extensively train with the platform before you can pull that out, that would be 160SOAR level of piloting skill to be able to pull that off, unless you are suggest staffing those Blackhawk with US Crew, I don't think Ukrainian pilot can pull that off without years, if not decade, of training.

I was more thinking they could deliver many of them in one go with a large ship from the Merchant Marine or a civilian one. Doesn't take long to transport them and take them to Europe.

Nah, that would be too slow, you need to give them now, not 2 or 3 months down the road, Sealift only make sense if we can directly put those aid on Ukrainian shore, but seeing our ship is blocked by Turkey when this war is still going on, there are no way we can ship it and unload them in Odessa, it would take too long to have it travel across the Atlantic and the across land over Europe either via the Baltic or Italy.

Think they are selling them to Poland, not just donating out of their own stock. Lockheed is producing more of them as you mentioned, close to a hundred a year I believe.

I don't know, 500 seems an absurd number, as I said, no one get more than 50, and suddenly they want to buy 500 and US is giving it to them? I just don't think that's likely, I could be wrong tho.

Not to mention how many Russians are eager to go back into Ukraine in Luhansk region after just fleeing. Sudden U-turn back to hell. Thats why I think the norther Luhansk region is very expose and for the taking prior to winter. Not to mention possible muddy season before or after winter. Think its mostly after when the snow melts.


Or push from north of Kupiansk which the river is narrower and not as deep from looking at the map. Its far behind the Russians fighting in Lyman and other locations in the south of Kharkiv or Luhansk or Donetsk or whatever cities in that area where regional borders meet.

You can't launch an offensive with 3rd Army corp alone, not enough men to do that, it's only number around 20,000

The Russian would need them to probably just hold the line, if the Russian is smart, they will put it in Crimea and move North East toward Donetsk and put it in the fight there, That is the only viable front now. Kherson with all the bridge blown is just a matter of time before Russian retreat or surrender, Ukraine could speed up that process by bombarding Kherson with HIMARS or even conventional Artillery, I don't think they wanted that to happen tho.

Luhansk is what we would called "2 over" Over stretched and over exposed" Luhansk, it would only be a logical front when Russia still hold Izyum and Threaten Kharkiv, without both, and with Kupiansk gone, Ukraine can wrap around the entire front on 2 sides (West and South), making it impossible, all they need is to take Lyman, which again is now surrounded by 3 sides, Lyman is going to fall, it really depends on whether or not the Russian in Lyman want to do something like the Azov done in Mariupol, basically degrade their own unit to buy time so the Russian on other position on the line have more time to dig in. Would the Russian do that? I don't know.

Plus, winter is coming, without Kupiansk and there is no railway network in Rostov and Crimea is too small to support both Kherson and Donbas front, a lot of Russian troops are going to freeze in Winter. The Russian logistic capability has been seriously degraded to I would say probably more than 50% (I think Kupiansk handle more logistic that Crimea and there were only 2 LSP) So this will either very bad for the Russian in the East, or bad in general for all Russian in theatre

Yep DNR/LNR are pretty much depleted and out of position if they tried to defend Luhansk or Donetsk later.

Can they still defend Donetsk and Luhansk?? I really doubt that.

I would say the Ukrainians should during the winter build a long defensive barriers to cover their rear areas at the Ukrainian-Russian border line. Get the personnel from each region and cities to start doing it. Have lots of bulldozers and front loaders and excavators and other vehicles for this.

1. Build a very large anti tank ditch or trenches about 30 feet wide and 20 feet deep, fill it with anti tank and anti personnel mines. Have the dirt that was dug up act as a berm behind the anti tank ditch and put more mines behind the berms.
2. Put Dragon's teeth in front of the anti tank ditch. Usually concrete since easy to make.

3. Put metal poles about 50 to 100 feet tall further behind at few hundred yards between with multiple cameras thermal and night vision too to watch the border. Along with border guards and rapid response units if there is a breach or something going on with the Russians.
4. And finally have long range drones that can see far to watch the border.

Well, fighting are not really likely during Winter, traditional, it is used to improve battle position and stuff like that. I would doubt you can make a defensive line on those, you would want more trained troop than fortification to guard the border with both Belarus and Russia.

But in general term, I think Ukrainian will use the winter to improve their battle position, border won't be matter much, because there are already breach point for Russia to funnel their force, the only thing they need the border for is to launch a new offensive. And I don't think a defence line can hold such an attempt, and the Russian probably won't be raising enough force to do it to begin with anyway.

 

[khansaheeb]

Türkiye and Germany and even France, they used all kinds of diplomacy to prevent war. But Putin was not convinced. This is not about the dollar. You cannot occupy people who do not want to live with you and do not dream of a common future with you. This is basically about that!

Of course, if you make such mistakes, your enemies will also take advantage of it. Also, if we talk specifically about Türkiye, Russia has put obstacles to us at every opportunity. Maybe we wanted Russians to stumble, who knows.

Who wants to live with Nazis?

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568294992052895747

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568294992052895747

Luhansk militia are mostly poor settlers who immigrated from Russia. They are not Ukrainian citizens. They are Russian citizens.

 

[Oldman1]

Normal Blackhawk can't do what you said here. You will need PAVEHAWK to do all that SOF thing. You can try to get a Blackhawk with Night Vision package, but I think you will need to extensively train with the platform before you can pull that out, that would be 160SOAR level of piloting skill to be able to pull that off, unless you are suggest staffing those Blackhawk with US Crew, I don't think Ukrainian pilot can pull that off without years, if not decade, of training.

True, would require the PAVEHAWK kind with those sensors. But I believe the Ukrainian pilots who already know how to fly helos can do a crash course and learn to fly the Blackhawks with NVGs or Blackhawks equipped with something like that. I mean they already flying low on the ground since the war started.

Nah, that would be too slow, you need to give them now, not 2 or 3 months down the road, Sealift only make sense if we can directly put those aid on Ukrainian shore, but seeing our ship is blocked by Turkey when this war is still going on, there are no way we can ship it and unload them in Odessa, it would take too long to have it travel across the Atlantic and the across land over Europe either via the Baltic or Italy.

Was thinking more of going to a port in Poland and take it over the border by trailers. Sure it would take time, but I think it helps in the long run. Whether a month from now or so.

I don't know, 500 seems an absurd number, as I said, no one get more than 50, and suddenly they want to buy 500 and US is giving it to them? I just don't think that's likely, I could be wrong tho.

Most likely it would happen but will be piece meal style. 50 here or there each year or 20 or so each year, depending.

You can't launch an offensive with 3rd Army corp alone, not enough men to do that, it's only number around 20,000

The Russian would need them to probably just hold the line, if the Russian is smart, they will put it in Crimea and move North East toward Donetsk and put it in the fight there, That is the only viable front now. Kherson with all the bridge blown is just a matter of time before Russian retreat or surrender, Ukraine could speed up that process by bombarding Kherson with HIMARS or even conventional Artillery, I don't think they wanted that to happen tho.

Nah they should just keep blowing up ferries and hit awaiting logistical vehicles or other vehicles at the rivers or bases near the river. Pretty much clumping them together and getting blown up.

Luhansk is what we would called "2 over" Over stretched and over exposed" Luhansk, it would only be a logical front when Russia still hold Izyum and Threaten Kharkiv, without both, and with Kupiansk gone, Ukraine can wrap around the entire front on 2 sides (West and South), making it impossible, all they need is to take Lyman, which again is now surrounded by 3 sides, Lyman is going to fall, it really depends on whether or not the Russian in Lyman want to do something like the Azov done in Mariupol, basically degrade their own unit to buy time so the Russian on other position on the line have more time to dig in. Would the Russian do that? I don't know.

They can make it 4 sided on Lyman if the Ukrainians crossed the Oskil River further north. Even make the Russians panic and flee and abandon more towns and other settlements in Luhansk.

Plus, winter is coming, without Kupiansk and there is no railway network in Rostov and Crimea is too small to support both Kherson and Donbas front, a lot of Russian troops are going to freeze in Winter. The Russian logistic capability has been seriously degraded to I would say probably more than 50% (I think Kupiansk handle more logistic that Crimea and there were only 2 LSP) So this will either very bad for the Russian in the East, or bad in general for all Russian in theatre

Still have the roads but can be pretty dangerous in the Luhansk region by making it like Indian country. As you pointed out the rails to through Crimea is just not able to make up for that alternative route to keep supporting any Donbas offensive for the Russians.

Can they still defend Donetsk and Luhansk?? I really doubt that.

Now or later, pretty much no.

Well, fighting are not really likely during Winter, traditional, it is used to improve battle position and stuff like that. I would doubt you can make a defensive line on those, you would want more trained troop than fortification to guard the border with both Belarus and Russia.

But in general term, I think Ukrainian will use the winter to improve their battle position, border won't be matter much, because there are already breach point for Russia to funnel their force, the only thing they need the border for is to launch a new offensive. And I don't think a defence line can hold such an attempt, and the Russian probably won't be raising enough force to do it to begin with anyway.

It helps to funnel the Russians in one place and have awaiting border guards ready to blow up any vehicles going on a bridge layer instead of Russians able to go to multiple routes. Whether the Russians are willing to try or not, lets not make it easy.

 

[Oldman1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568294992052895747

@jhungary

Saw a video of a captured very young Russian sailor turned tank crewmember with a only a week of training in tanks before being sent into battle.

 

[Oldman1]

Luhansk militia are mostly poor settlers who immigrated from Russia. They are not Ukrainian citizens. They are Russian citizens.

Wouldn't matter to the Ukrainian forces now eh?

 

[Clutch]

I always feel when Russians are on the back foot its the calm before the storm

and that a massive Red Army counter offensive is coming like Operation Uranus during Stalingrad when Wehrmacht went too deep and got encircled and wiped out

you just cannot right Russia off historical speaking they always come back because they have a huge appetite to take casualties and come back

Doubt it. This is a different Russia. A broken demoralized Russia that cannot compete in a technological modern battlefield.


Only option for Russia is to go nuclear. But that will have consequences.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

Ukraine has exposed America's weakness. Back in the 70s America was 90% white. Now America is 50% white. Non whites simply don't want to fight. If this where 70s Americans can fight in Ukraine like they fought in Vietnam. But now Americans are like meh because of demographic change.

STOP YOUR NONSENSE WITH NO LOGIC
I'M REPORTING YOU FOR YOUR NONSENSE

 

[jhungary]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568294992052895747

It's getting worse, I was watching a Channel 1 news segment, they started to swing it like this is a DNR/LPR war, they largely blame the DNR/LPR people for the loss, they didn't even mentioned the name Russia on that program (maybe once or twice)

seems like they are trying to isolate Russian involvement from the war. It's not "Their" war, they were just there to help the Russian speaking brothers. And then turn around and blame them for not holding the line.

Man, I think it's just a matter of time either DPR/LNR people turn on them or the Russian drop these people...