Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569825776790282241

 

[thetutle]

1 in 5 brits cant afford food/gas

Kat and Sanaa. Hmmm. Sanaa is from an immigrant family, probably an Arab with 7 kids and is a stay at home mum. Let me tell you, she's doing a to better in the UK than she would in her home country. 7 kids, I think millionaires would be struggling with 7 kids.

Kat is an overweight smoker who complains that food is too expensive. Well, giver her body weight, I would say, it's not expensive enough. She also has a marijuana bracelet, any guesses where her social security money goes to? yes, her local dope dealer. Yes, lay off the drugs, and cigarettes and probably alcohol too and you can maintain your obese lifestyle in the UK.

 

[Clutch]

Hi, What Are You Looking For?

19FortyFive​

SMART BOMBS: MILITARY, DEFENSE, NATIONAL SECURITY AND MORE​

Is The Russian Military Just Giving Up In Ukraine? It Feels Like It​

By
Stavros Atlamazoglou
Published
3 hours ago

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Russian T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russia’s Ukraine War Is Not Going Well: After a frantic pace that often outran its own commanders, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east has slowed down. The results are astounding. The Ukrainian forces managed to liberate approximately 3,000 square miles of territory, which constitutes more land than the Russian military has managed to capture in the last five months of warfare.
On day 202 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military is consolidating its gains in the east, clearing out any last pockets of resistance and going through the piles of equipment that the Russian forces left behind on their route.
Moreover, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south continues to press forward.
The Russian Casualties

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Tuesday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 53,300 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 244 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 213 attack and transport helicopters, 2,175 tanks, 1,279 artillery pieces, 4,662 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 311 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 15 boats and cutters, 3,469 vehicles and fuel tanks, 165 anti-aircraft batteries, 904 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 117 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 233 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
There’s a War Going On in the South Too

Meanwhile in the south, the Ukrainian military continues to push with its counteroffensive toward Kherson. Over the past few weeks, the Ukrainian forces have conducted more than 350 long-range strikes against Russian high value targets, including ammunition dumps, fuel depots, command and control hubs, air-defense positions, electronic warfare systems, and critical infrastructure.
The Ukrainian military is also claiming that some Russian units on the southern front are actively negotiating their surrender in order to save themselves from a similar fate as what happened in the east.

The morale of the Russian forces in Ukraine is at a new low after more than six months of fighting. Left for months without clear objectives and with a dubious explanation as to why they were invading in the first place, the Russian forces now have to account for the devastating superiority of the Ukrainians.
The Grain Situation
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused global food insecurity and threatened tens of millions with famine. Ukraine is one of the largest producers and exporters of grain in the world, and the war severely affected the Ukrainian agricultural production.

A T-72 B3 tank operated by a crew from Russia jumps during the Tank Biathlon competition at the International Army Games 2020 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia September 2, 2020. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
After months of negotiations between the two warring parties and the United Nations, an agreement was reached to allow cargo ships carrying Ukrainian grain to leave Odessa, Ukraine’s third-largest city and biggest port.
The cargo ships travel primarily to developing countries in Africa and the Middle East, which are the most dependent on the Ukrainian grain and, thus, the most threatened with famine. However, the Russian government has tried to skew the facts and claim that Kyiv has been instead sending most of the grain to the developed nations of the European Union. This is a clear attempt to use disinformation and drive a wedge between the international front that has been created against Russia because of the invasion.

Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569533294454407168

 

[thetutle]

The middle class in the west is dying. Your going down to 2 groups. the tiny 0.5% super rich, and everybody else hand to mouth peasants..... kind of like the middle ages..

definitly send some pastries their way. They seem to be struggling far more then the average internet millionaire here from the west pretending they are rich/unbothered by record high inflation that is destroying a signifcant part of the western population

Your own video states that % of middle class has not changed since the 1980's. Gives an example of a black lady who claims she is struggling, she has $100,000 USD yearly family income. spends $200 USD per month on phone and internet. Probably spends more on pet food than the average Iranian earns. Also, look at how fat she is. No struggle for food there I think.

You can think think what you want of the west, but one thing it is not is poor. why do you think people all over the world are risking their lives to come as illegal migrants to the west?

 

[Bengal71]

This war is taking place in Russian backyard and Russians feel strongly about absorbing Ukraine due to historical factors. Problem is that Russians have lost more in like 7 months in Ukraine than they did in 10 years in Afghanistan. Imagine this.

I can imagine that but Russia has the ability to do more and absorb far more losses. It will come down to motivation if they are willing to do that. In WW2 they were defending homeland and their independence against the Nazis who considered them subhumans. This time around no matter how much emotion they have, the motivation is not going to be the same as WW2 scenario, the existing Russian homeland is not in threat, if it was then Russia would've the motivation and incentive to fight to the last man.

 

[sammuel]

That was USSR backed by the West. Times have changed.

Some forget that the West flooded USSR with weapons and supplies to fight Germans (Lend-Lease Act). US-backed forces were also attacking and dismantling German lines across Europe.

Some think that Stalingrad turned the tide. No, it didn't. It was symbolic at best.

Also in Stalingrad Russians where protecting their own city and homeland , opposite of what we have here. Where they are the invading army with no real reason to fight.

~

 

[thetutle]

Heartbreaking to hear. Very demoralised.

Times has changed or not will be determined when the war is over, not now. Although I must say in WW2 the Russians were defending their homeland, so they had a motivation. Today they are invading, they should not theoretically have the same motivation. If they don't fight as hard as WW2, it's to do with the lack of motivation, not lack of fight in them.

if it was Germany vs Russia in WW2 it would be game over for russia very very quickly. Zero chance for russia.

What happened in WW2 was the British and American bombers razing German cities day and night while at the same time arming russia like they are arming Ukraine now. UK and US produced 50% of the worlds steel at the time.

The western allies started the war against Germany and Germany never had a chance. Russia was just the one chosen to sacrifice its people for the cause in return for western support.

Russian morale was very high in WW2 because russian rear units would shoot ay retreating Russians soldiers.

 

[jhungary]

Times has changed or not will be determined when the war is over, not now. Although I must say in WW2 the Russians were defending their homeland, so they had a motivation. Today they are invading, they should not theoretically have the same motivation. If they don't fight as hard as WW2, it's to do with the lack of motivation, not lack of fight in them.

Russian is NOT Soviet. Russian is part of Soviet Union, it's the entirety of the union to defend the German invasion in 1943. That's the first mistake. And that's the same mistake when people look at Russian Military and see the lineage of the Red Army. It's like saying Indian Army is the same as British Army in WW2 when none of the Officer were Indian.

This war, for all intent and purpose, is done, the only way Russia can turn the tides is they can achieve 2 things.

1.) Have the numeric superiority over Ukrainian, which mean Mobilisation.
2.) Relocate Supply hubs from Belgorod to Rostov or Increase the capacity in Crimea before winter (in about a month)

Right now, there are more Ukrainian fighting men in operation compare to the Russian, a leaked Russian telegram post said they were outnumbered 8 to 1 in that Kharkiv offensive, well, that's probably an exaggeration, but it would looks like Ukraine formed 4 to 5 new TDF Brigade just to do it, which mean it would be at least 3 to 1 advantage. Which mean Russian has to expand their troop number in Ukraine a whopping 9 times before they can turn the ties (3 times to get back to 1 to 1 and then another 3 times to get it over to 3 to 1 ratio)

What's more, the entire Northern Logistic Base is gone, now if Russian ship any stuff from Belgorod, it will just end up with the Ukrainian. They would need to build a railway network in Rostov (The next closest supply point) and then establish a staging area in Rostov all before Winter or the Russian troop are going to make with their thumb up their arse in the cold without food, clothes and ammunition, because there are no railway network to Ukraine in Rostov, which mean if Russia want to supply their force in Ukraine, they would need to bring them in by plane or truck, bringing supply by plane in the frontline without air superiority is more or less suicide, and we all know what Russia is capable with Trucks, but this time they can't afford to have a 40 miles convoy, because this time Ukrainian will be waiting with HIMARS and MLRS or even Caesar Artillery system for them. Which mean they would have to relocate and rebuild the entire supply network from Belgorod to Rostov in about a month, even the Chinese cannot do that....

Looks like the only European that is going to get frozen in this winter is the Russian fighting in Ukraine.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Russians are more motivated to fight in the south because of water supply from Dnipr river to Crimea and land bridge to Crimea. Kharkiv is not that important. Kharkiv is 20 km from the Russian border. Well within missile range. They just wreck it. Make it uninhabitable and not a threat to Russia.

 

[jhungary]

It may have been an idiom that does not translate well to English. I think that most Russians who actually fight on the frontlines are not too eager to be there. They are not defending their country afterall.

It's a phase, mean would you do shit to us (Like beat us or more precisely torture)
It's like in Russian girl will say "Poka Poka (Покa)" instead of bye. This is just the way they say stuff.

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569870269191229440

 

[Oldman1]

Post war? Sure. Now? No.....

At this point Helicopter did not do much for Ukrainian, even tho Russia did not have air superiority, they can still take down those choppers with Su-25 or Su-30. At this point Helicopter is probably a liability rather than asset to the Ukrainian, because when you use them, that mean you need asset to protect them, that also mean you need asset to protect the area you use them with. Better stick with slick ground transport for quite movement for now.

The Ukrainians can use those helos like over the rivers to deliver them behind the lines or find gaps in defensive lines to send in troops to cause chaos. Even with the danger of SAMs or MANPADs. Most likely be using them at night time instead of daytime that led to the fiasco Black Hawk Down.

Maybe they will? We don't know what the US is sending them next. But chances are not high.

Bear in mind anything you send taking a seat on a C-17 literally, which mean you can either use the space to send in a few Humvees or a few Up Armoured MRAP or even M113. I would prefer the latter than Humvee now.

I was more thinking they could deliver many of them in one go with a large ship from the Merchant Marine or a civilian one. Doesn't take long to transport them and take them to Europe.

500 is an insane amount, I don't think US State Dept will allow transfer of 500 HIMARS to Poland....

Nobody other than US and Romania (Which has 56 IIRC) have more than 50. 50 is a very potent number of platform being used. I also think Lockheed Land System can't make 500 in a short time. We gave them 50, which mean we will have to have that 50 back by buying them from LLS. That alone would make Lockheed Production line busy for the next few years....

IIRC we had approved sale for HIMARS to Taiwan in 2020. Probably 20 systems.

Think they are selling them to Poland, not just donating out of their own stock. Lockheed is producing more of them as you mentioned, close to a hundred a year I believe.

Problem is, I don't see how Russian can hold on to East of Oksil river.

The majority of the Russian force are either trapped when Izyum-Kupiansk line felt, or fighting in the south near Bakhmut and Siversky. The force that got away is not at all much, you are talking about a division worth or 10 BTG at most. That's nothing. Problem is, lacking defensive position, all they can do is to collect troop that on the way of their retreat, but then how many troops you can gather and mount a proper defence? Not much. Either Russia abandoned the entire Bakhmut and Siversky front and divert those solider to help defend East of Oksil, first of all, this will take time, you don't just disengage and redeploy? Second of all, doing that you basically expose another front the Ukrainian can exploit. Let's not forget how the Russian get into this mess at the begining, they hollow out people too much and when the Ukrainian probe the line, there are no response, and this counter offensive happened.

Not to mention how many Russians are eager to go back into Ukraine in Luhansk region after just fleeing. Sudden U-turn back to hell. Thats why I think the norther Luhansk region is very expose and for the taking prior to winter. Not to mention possible muddy season before or after winter. Think its mostly after when the snow melts.

The only thing I can think of is to send the newly Created 3rd Army 20k strong force to try to hold the Oksil front, but again, it take time to deploy and I am not sure it is any quicker to do them from Russia than from pulling troops from Siversky and Bakhmut? what's more, if and when Lyman felt, the Ukrainian are going to roll up from Lyman and Roll East from Kupiansk to competely encircle the Russian, don't forget they have freed up quite a lot of troop now Izyum is theirs and Kharkiv virtually broke the siege, they can spare more force than the original spearhead that make these advance. That's a dangerous game for Russian to play. You can send in the 3rd Army to try to make a different and gamble it will, but if not, then you just used your strategic reserve for nothing.

Or push from north of Kupiansk which the river is narrower and not as deep from looking at the map. Its far behind the Russians fighting in Lyman and other locations in the south of Kharkiv or Luhansk or Donetsk or whatever cities in that area where regional borders meet.

On the other hand, if we say Russian had depleted their force and had to rely on Syria Volunteer and PMC, then DNR/LPR are probably at even more dire strait. They don't have the human resource the Russian have, and they have been boring the blunt of most of the fighting, the attrition rate of those Separatist force are going to be bad, in fact, I think if they had won now and took everything in Donbas (Like Bakhmut, Slovianks Kramatosk and so on) They can't govern those area because they would have problem with the number of military personnel. Their rank is depleted so badly I don't think even if they had won, they wouldn't had anyone to defend the gain.

Yep DNR/LNR are pretty much depleted and out of position if they tried to defend Luhansk or Donetsk later.

Russian have to wait til April next year to have the new draftee in to help with number. Or they can try raising volunteer battalion, which so far we see less than 50, and they are more or less just people getting 4 weeks of training and give them weapon and put them in frontline.

It would work if you were the Ukrainian because you are defending the country, it's not good if you are tasked to take cities, an act you would not know how to do if you are a US Soldier unless you went thru 16 weeks of Advance Individual Training as a 11B00.

I would say the Ukrainians should during the winter build a long defensive barriers to cover their rear areas at the Ukrainian-Russian border line. Get the personnel from each region and cities to start doing it. Have lots of bulldozers and front loaders and excavators and other vehicles for this.

1. Build a very large anti tank ditch or trenches about 30 feet wide and 20 feet deep, fill it with anti tank and anti personnel mines. Have the dirt that was dug up act as a berm behind the anti tank ditch and put more mines behind the berms.
2. Put Dragon's teeth in front of the anti tank ditch. Usually concrete since easy to make.

3. Put metal poles about 50 to 100 feet tall further behind at few hundred yards between with multiple cameras thermal and night vision too to watch the border. Along with border guards and rapid response units if there is a breach or something going on with the Russians.
4. And finally have long range drones that can see far to watch the border.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Next year things are heating up. Russians are waiting for the wunder waffes to come. Ka-52 M and Mi-28 NM sturmoviks are coming next year. These sturmoviks are beasts armed with long range EO and missiles which blast tanks from beyond 10 km. These sturmoviks will turn the tide in Russians favor next year.

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569810748989390850

Seems like they found someone who can talk sense in Russian tv