Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[jhungary]

Ok Himars artillery is the best friend. 30,000 russians now on east bank. How will they be supplied? They need to bring in hundreds thousands of tons of foods and ammo. That would not be easy. they retreated from Kherson because they were unable to feed the troops.

They can't, that's why Kherson is more important than anywhere else, there are no way they can resupply a large force with their supply line being interdicted by the Ukrainian. That's why I said the chances of Russia completely lose this war is there once Ukraine took Kherson, because that give them a choice to defeat the entire Russian Army in Ukraine, not just post 2014 line but the entire country, in detail. They can isolate each bit and attack them with overwhelm local superiority and then move on the next one, and then the next one until there are no more Russian pocket in Ukraine.

Unless Russia now started to get their act together and found a way to counter those HIMARS and Western Artillery and Intelligence that feeding those Artillery, I don't see how Russia can turn this around. pumping more men in an already dired supply situation won't help, in fact, it will only get worse.

 

[Paul2]

Yes, if Russia loses Nova Kakokva, it dam up the fresh water from the Dnieper, Ukraine can stop that supply and then Russia will need to either desalinate sea water or truck drinkable water to Crimea. This is going be bad for the already damaged Kerch Bridge.

They have plenty of groundwater in Crimea for human consumption for now.

 

[jhungary]

AFU reported them regularly driving Russians as far back as Kyselivka in summer, with photo proofs, just to have to retreat due to RU artillery coming from outskirts of Kherson, and from long range firebases from the East

I doubt RU ever had enough "meat" to directly confront AFU armoured pushes besides few strongpoints like Snihurivka

A man from the unit whom I gave octocopters in Poland says 90% of the time they just sat, and waited for most of July-August, and 10% they repositioned to spoil RU recon.

For 2 months I been silent, now can tell. The August, and September during which I been silent on PDF were an adventure of a lifetime.

It had been see-sawing since late August as far as I know. And from then it's pretty clear that Ukrainian is not willing to push but Russian also unwilling to pushback, that's how I know Kherson is going to fall (Which is why I keep saying Russia would be lucky if they still hold Kherson after winter)

When I see how the Ukrainian materialise 10 Brigade out of nowhere in the East without ANYONE knowing, not even the American. I know once they pull off that, it's going to be the same thing in Kherson, I estimated the Ukrainian troop number in September is around 20,000, probably double that during October, and before the Russian line folded, it's around 70,000 in the area with 16 Brigade or more.

They move a lot of troops in the area, and while they were under Press Blackout, but it seems like Russian know they are again being outnumbered, that's why they decided to bolt instead of fighting. And that massing of force in just 2 months' time is amazing, and that's what win Kherson for them without a fight.

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591111841199312896

Lets fcking go!!!

 

[Ali_Baba]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591111841199312896

Lets fcking go!!!

That must be the Ukranians taking "delivery". No way will they keep that many together now - far too valuable an asset for that level of concentration in wartime conditions.

 

[ZeGerman]

Im sorry did i rain on your “ukraine winnzzz west stronk” parade with some facts?

Sorry… but im not sorry. Sit on it and spin, and have your tissues ready when the inevitable Russian winter blitz comes

Can we screenshot this? Hahaha

 

[Ali_Baba]

Putin 'offered surrender terms by West' as he loses control of Kherson

The plan would see Putin give up all territory he currently occupies in Ukraine except Crimea, which would become a demilitarized zone, in return for avoiding war crimes prosecution.

www.dailymail.co.uk

>> Putin just been given exit ramp. If he does not take it - then he will for sure lose Crimea as punishment and Ukraine will be given a whole series of weapons that has been denied up until now ...

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

No equipment was left behind said the Russian mod

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591119281965903872

 

[jhungary]

They have plenty of groundwater in Crimea for human consumption for now.

Well, probably worth around 3 months, not going to be enough for them to last over winter.

 

[ZeGerman]

No equipment was left behind said the Russian mod

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591119281965903872

View attachment 895706

@The SC
Thats already more then the max 3 losses from your source buddy….

 

[jhungary]

By the way, for those who are curious about the pace of Ukrainian advance in this Advance in Kherson.

It's 59 km in 1 day.

 

[aziqbal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591111841199312896

Lets fcking go!!!

is this not old or is it new?

Wow so many HIMARS, a single HIMAR can take out weeks if not months of Russian artillery and ammunition

 

[aziqbal]

Well, probably worth around 3 months, not going to be enough for them to last over winter.

I think Russia is preparing 120,000 of the mobilised troops to be trained by Spring 2023, followed up by another 240,000 troops by summer, they have 6 months to solve the HIMAR problem

at the start of the War Ukraine drones were hammering the Russians, laser pointers were "painting" the ground vehicles and laser guided shells from artillery were finding their marks with deadly accuracy even if the Russian vehicles were moving, Russia found a way to jam the drones and neutralise them by summer the drone issue was solved and Russian marched forward

I wonder if Russia has ever captured a HIMAR, they would be too valuable and getting a block on their GPS signals would go a long way in solving the HIMAR problem

if Russian can solve HIMAR issue and train enough troops I wonder if we will see the historical and tradition Russian counter attack which broke the back of Napoleon and Wehrmacht, a Russian withdrawal always has me nervous and reminds me of the calm before the storm

 

[aziqbal]

No equipment was left behind said the Russian mod

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591119281965903872

View attachment 895706

Ukraine is not falling for the trap quite yet and celebration in West seem over hyped lets calm down

Russia still has inexhaustible resources and the military and missile factories are going flat out, by 2023 they will replenish much of the Kalibr and Iskander missiles around the same time when Iran will start running out, Iran is a stop gap unit Russian industries go into over drive

the question is how much progress will Ukraine make over the Winter, because the Summer might belong to Ukraine but Winter is always for Russia talking from a historical perspective

next 6 months are very important in this war, Ukraine either pushes hard and forces Russian to the negotiating Table or stands till for a Russian counter

Ukraine needs 2 things, C-Ram air defence and tons more HIMARS

they could do with F16/F18 to ensure the skies are kept clear but I highly doubt West will give F16/F18

 

[jhungary]

I think Russia is preparing 120,000 of the mobilised troops to be trained by Spring 2023, followed up by another 240,000 troops by summer, they have 6 months to solve the HIMAR problem

at the start of the War Ukraine drones were hammering the Russians, laser pointers were "painting" the ground vehicles and laser guided shells from artillery were finding their marks with deadly accuracy even if the Russian vehicles were moving, Russia found a way to jam the drones and neutralise them by summer the drone issue was solved and Russian marched forward

I wonder if Russia has ever captured a HIMAR, they would be too valuable and getting a block on their GPS signals would go a long way in solving the HIMAR problem

if Russian can solve HIMAR issue and train enough troops I wonder if we will see the historical and tradition Russian counter attack which broke the back of Napoleon and Wehrmacht, a Russian withdrawal always has me nervous and reminds me of the calm before the storm

You can't hunt HIMARS with troops, they are about 50-80km away from a frontline, where Russia on a good day make 1 Km a day progress, it would take 50 days even if the HIMARS did not move for the Russian to catch up on them. And they are too mobile to be hunted for any ground force, if Russia is betting on their ground force on those HIMARS, they are going to lose big.....

Also, you can't train 120,000 in 3 months, I don't know what kind of Training Russian is offering, but in the US, it takes on average 4 Soldier to train 1 recruit. There are no 4 to 1 ratio in Russia if you are talking about A complete training with Weapon manipulation, Tactics, Strategy and Military Tradition. The entire cadre would be probably equal to the entire Russian army do nothing but train those recruits, even then I don't know if they can pull off a number of 120,000.

And finally, Russia had already used half of those Mobilised troop, unless Putin fancy another round of Mobilisation, he is not getting 240,000 troop trained up next summer, it would be lucky if he gets 60,000. On the other hand, Ukrainian southern strength is estimated at 80-100,000 just in the south, and that is before any newly trained troop coming in. And you need 3 to 1 to overwhelm the defender, Russia is nowhere near the number enough to make any pushes.