Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591066400449523712

 

[jhungary]

The Russians have already started digging trenches in Crimea. That shows you how well they think defending the south will go.

If I am the Ukrainian. I will push at least 10 Brigade toward Orikhiv, together with the 6 Brigade in the region, I will make a push toward both Vasylivka and Tormak and then converge on Melitopol. You cut the Russian in half and you can try to encircle the rest of Kherson Oblast and redeploy more combat force in the East to sweep up Svatove. Maybe before Christmas or After Christmas.

That's what I will do. I will not write out Crimea yet, but this is going to be a tough winter in Crimea...

 

[Viet]

If I am the Ukrainian. I will push at least 10 Brigade toward Orikhiv, together with the 6 Brigade in the region, I will make a push toward both Vasylivka and Tormak and then converge on Melitopol. You cut the Russian in half and you can try to encircle the rest of Kherson Oblast and redeploy more combat force in the East to sweep up Svatove. Maybe before Christmas or After Christmas.

That's what I will do. I will not write out Crimea yet, but this is going to be a tough winter in Crimea...

It’s better if Ukraine army go chasing thr retreating Russia army on the east river bank.

Don’t let them rest and relax.

Let’s them spend Christmas in Russia.

Once the entire Kherson is free, Crimea has no access to water supply, they will probably import waters from China.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591070753692463104

 

[Paul2]

40,000 men, hungry and desperate, rushing to narrow escape doors. Putin is waiting too long before he agrees to retreat. The evacuation with men and materials will take a week. Dumb.

The "mindgames" theory seem to be getting more backing now.

Russians had significantly fewer troops than was believed.

Russian brigades in Kherson were 1/3 to 1/2 of real on paper strength.

At most they had 20,000 at peak, and they were intentionally inflating digits on radio chatter.

This morning they got confirmation from locals, it was closer to few thousands who ran across the pontoon, but nowhere near the reported 10k.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

The only problem is. At best Russia can salvage 20k troop to reuse somewhere in the East.

Pulling out of Kherson would free upward of 60,000 Ukrainian troop. Again, depends on what the Ukrainian want to do in Kherson after this. There are 16 Brigade in the entire Kherson region, if the Russia all pull out, I would say the Ukrianian could leave 2 Brigade in Kherson and 2 Brigade in Nova Kakovka and then pull the 2 Brigade from Kryvyi Rih to the frontline (5th Tank and 21st National Guard Brigade is stationed in Kryvyi Rih) now that it no longer in the frontline. Which mean Ukraine can deploy upward of 14 Brigade anywhere they wanted.

This is not going to look good after Winter for the Russian....

That & the troops in kherson are the best troops Russians had in this war. That's not something you can just replaced. What are the Russians going to do. Use human wave tactic against modern military?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591025498788073472

 

[Paul2]

That & the troops in kherson are the best troops Russians had in this war. That's not something you can just replaced. What are the Russians going to do. Use human wave tactic against modern military?

Not really. Russian marines, and airborne are very lightly armed, and lose on apples to apples comparison to average motorised.

Their BMD for example is easily penetrable by regular 50 cal, while infantry BMP can resist an autocannon.

They don't have normal ATGMs, only LAWs, and gun launched ATGMs on their BMDs.

Not to say they have no artillery sans self-propelled-mortars

So, they lose to even regular assault light infantry like AFU 128th brigade

Russian airborne, and marines are very different from Western counterparts.

They are a highly mechanised force very dependent on their vehicles.

They would've been fine in late cold war, but not today when Javelins, and guided weapons outranging them are everywhere.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591072975478231041

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591074213380882435

 

[jhungary]

It’s better if Ukraine army go chasing thr retreating Russia army on the east river bank.

Don’t let them rest and relax.

Let’s them spend Christmas in Russia.

Once the entire Kherson is free, Crimea has no access to water supply, they will probably import waters from China.

Crossing thru Kherson is almost impossible now, even with engineer bridge, you will meet with sporadic artillery fire from the Eastern Side, HIMARS cannot completely suppress the Russian gun. And then you can only cross the river from there in a small amount of troop and almost no heavies. Which would make Ukrainian a sitting duck when they cross.

If I have to cross the river to the Eastern Bank, I will try a fighting fjord over the dam upstream, I can cross with more troop and more heavy equipment, that way I will have a chance with artillery and HIMARS cover. But that is still too risky.

I would choose a less risk approach, I know I will have to fight in Orikhiv but then I know I am numerical superior and have higher morale than the Russian. That give me the best opportunities. Because the other 2 are sort of a gamble. But then I don't know what the Ukrainian will do.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Drone wars starts now. Where's the shaheads at?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591033636085637120

 

[jhungary]

That & the troops in kherson are the best troops Russians had in this war. That's not something you can just replaced. What are the Russians going to do. Use human wave tactic against modern military?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591025498788073472

The Russian had already spend the best troop in this war, they are VDV and 1st Guard Tank Army. And to some extend, Wagner. The first two now only exist on paper and the last, well, they are recruiting convicts, how good can they be??

These troop in Kherson is regular mixed with mobilised troop, they are probably just regular army that look good on paper to deter Ukrainian advance. Those troop would have make up the number, if they can completely withdraw with their equipment, otherwise they are just going to be canon fodder to be used in the East. They may do the same thing they were doign in Kherson in Svatove or Starbolisk or even Bakhmut if Putin is that cruel, but they won't be able to withstand much.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Not really. Russian marines, and airborne are very lightly armed, and lose on apples to apples comparison to average motorised.

Their BMD for example is easily penetrable by regular 50 cal, while infantry BMP can resist an autocannon.

They don't have ATGMs, and only LAWs instead.

Not to say they have no artillery sans mortars.

So, they lose to even regular assault light infantry like AFU 128th brigade

Still better trained than most of 'em mobiks.

As I keep saying Russian losing in an inevitability. The only thing that are not certain is how badly they going to lose.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590975693705256960

 

[Ali_Baba]

@Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen

Where are you ??? - Lol - We are all missing you and your ideas of how Russian's can f--k each other to victory by making lots of babies ????????????????

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591075906696642560

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591077933481099264