Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[jhungary]

They did for more than a month from my observation, it's another blob of forces that nobody talked about... and for a good reason.

RUAF are very weak there, 58th army been there since the start, without any rotation, and they got depleted more by sending forces to Khesanh.

My calculation, they are just 1-1.5 division strong now due to initial losses from March, and depletion.

And we already know that RU motorized division is only 4000-5000 suitable warfighting troops. The rest are auxiliaries.

58th was supposed to be a more high readiness russian army, since they were stationed in southwest russia.

Well, I have a feeling they are going to do a Kharkiv toward Melitopol.

There were already report Russian troop are doing defensive work in the area, If I have to guess, in the next 2 to 3 weeks, there probably will be Ukrainian "Phantom" unit materialised in that area, and once they have 6 or more Brigade inside the area, they will make a thunder run into Melitopol.

Why 2 to 3 weeks? I am giving Kherson about 2 to 3 weeks to survive. Kherson is on the accerated-end phase right now. and once Ukrainian took Nova Karkovka, that's more or less game over for Kherson, and it will take around 2 to 3 weeks for the Ukrainian to roll over the garrison in Nova Karkova.

 

[Paul2]

And we already know that RU motorized division is only 4000-5000 suitable warfighting troops. The rest are auxiliaries.

58th was supposed to be a more high readiness russian army, since they were stationed in southwest russia.

This is by the way an excellent demonstration how excess vehicles they took from the start eventually began to turn into a liability.

So many vehicles also mean having too much dead weight auxiliaries, which would've been better coming long after the spearhead force.

 

[hembo]

"Not Ready To Kill": Rapper, Drafted, Dies By Suicide

 

[Viet]

Probably more than 25,000 Russian now. Report suggested that Mobilised Troop were being deployed to Kherson, unless they also pull Regular Troop back, that number is going to swell.

it said they are the best troops Moscow can field? Stalingrad moment with the deutsche Wehrmacht, the 6th. Army

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577262954960982018

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577265124250787842

 

[Paul2]

That will just add to the losses once kherson becomes unsupportable in winter.

There is a nuance to this:

North of Ukraine will indeed become impassable for vehicles soon, but South will actually become more availing to mechanised combat because tilled fields will get frozen, and able to support a weight of an MBT.

 

[jhungary]

it said they are the best troops Moscow can field? Stalingrad moment with the deutsche Wehrmacht, the 6th. Army

It's quite pointless for Kherson, even if you send in the Spetsnez or any crack troop it's going to be the same, it's not a Stalingrad, it's a Siege of Port Standley.....

 

[Paul2]

Look at it this way, the Ukrainian succeed in the Kharkiv Route but failed to cut off the Russian supply and retreat line, that's a big blow to the operation because you are allowing many Russian troop to escape, and the same thing happened in Lyman

It's not like they have spare armour for that. By all accounts they did deploy ambushes on those roads, and had artillery reaching over them from the south, just not enough of it.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577272582336032770

 

[Wood]

Hopefully Ukraine will not outrun its own supply line

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577077588698095619

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577075931931627520

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577265181679570945

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577263671700774912

 

[Paul2]

It's quite pointless for Kherson, even if you send in the Spetsnez or any crack troop it's going to be the same, it's not a Stalingrad, it's a Siege of Port Standley.....

They indeed did send crack troops to Lyman, and Izyum as reinforcements, and they just wasted them all by having them sit in trenches, waiting to be overrun by a mechanised push.

Spetsnez, not spetsnez all die if ran over by a tank.

 

[maverick1977]

The use of tactical nuke is quite a possibility within this week to the next... the world is on the edge..

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577255003848249345

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577248425468645376

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577238000768937984

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577068420968816640

 

[Paul2]

They indeed did send crack troops to Lyman, and Izyum as reinforcements, and they just wasted them all by having them sit in trenches, waiting to be overrun by a mechanised push.

Spetsnez, not spetsnez all die if ran over by a tank.

This is also to counter the argument that RUAF did not react in Kharkiv.

They did, just totally wrong: too late, too early, or underreacting, or overreacting.

They sent all what they had to Kupyansk when it was already too late so save the area, but too early to defend the city.

So, their elite light infantry just sat in trenches in the forest for 2 weeks, and then had to face tank batallions flying at them at full speed, rather than trying to engage UA force on their own terms.

Them scramming from well fortified positions further East played into defeat at Lyman, by allowing AFU uncontested passage over forests, rocks, and bogs in the area.

It's UA generals outplaying their Russian counterparts in the rock, paper, scissors again.

There been very few times through this war when I felt UA being genuinely outplayed by RU, and all of that been in February (loss of the south, and succesful breakout through Crimean "chicken neck")