More likely we will see whether Europe will fall apart in 3 months, if they can last thru Jan 2023, then there is no way Russia will bring down EU. Because by next year, the inflation would have been subsided and gas dependence would drop.
Bear in mind most of European problem stem from irresponsible fiscal policy, not really related to Russian War in Ukraine.
My Prediction on this war will be there are going to be medium to massive gain for Ukrainian before Winter. Due to the fact that Russia is not in a position to defend their territories, the mobilised troop would be used to "Hold The Line" in occupied Ukrainian territories, and Ukraine will try to capitalise on their lack of discipline and training to gain more land all the way up to winter. Then fighting is going to subside.
Russia is going to pull their best troop off the line and rotate them to the rear. Then Russia is going to do one more major push, possibly nationwide push, sometime next year after the combat ready troop regroup and retrained. The war will end one way or the other because either Russia succeed on the push and capture all their strategic goal (I would say the complete occupation of the 4 Oblasts not Kyiv) and then declare themselves had won the war and ask for a peace talk. Or they failed to do it and exhausted the last bit of their combat power, and they will either have to pull back in general term or use nuke.
As for nuke, I just don't see them using it. You can already see the push back from Russian just on the Partial Mobilisation alone, now will the rest of the Russian want to die for Putin ambition? I would say if Putin was scare to call a mobilisation before, he would be even more scared if he were to decide to use nuke, if he even hint at that, I will say there is a pretty good chance Russian Military will revolt and take over.
