Wish we can give them Blackhawk helos. Would help with operations that helos are needed for. Don't think Ukraine has enough helos even those provided by NATO countries with Russian made ones including the U.S.
Post war? Sure. Now? No.....
At this point Helicopter did not do much for Ukrainian, even tho Russia did not have air superiority, they can still take down those choppers with Su-25 or Su-30. At this point Helicopter is probably a liability rather than asset to the Ukrainian, because when you use them, that mean you need asset to protect them, that also mean you need asset to protect the area you use them with. Better stick with slick ground transport for quite movement for now.
Well with any breach of the frontlines with tanks and bmps and sudden wave of MRAPS and Humvess and other vehicles that can cause chaos behind the lines while spreading out and fast, still worth sending in those Humvees with the number you mentioned and let the Ukrainians do whatever they wish with them.
Maybe they will? We don't know what the US is sending them next. But chances are not high.
Bear in mind anything you send taking a seat on a C-17 literally, which mean you can either use the space to send in a few Humvees or a few Up Armoured MRAP or even M113. I would prefer the latter than Humvee now.
50 HIMARs would be too powerful in the eyes of the Biden Administration huh? That would be hilarious! Treating them like handing over nukes. Not sure why they can't give them 25 more considering they are ramping production of the vehicles to make up for the donated vehicles not to mention exporting them to other countries like Taiwan who wanted them early and Poland who wants 500!
500 is an insane amount, I don't think US State Dept will allow transfer of 500 HIMARS to Poland....
Nobody other than US and Romania (Which has 56 IIRC) have more than 50. 50 is a very potent number of platform being used. I also think Lockheed Land System can't make 500 in a short time. We gave them 50, which mean we will have to have that 50 back by buying them from LLS. That alone would make Lockheed Production line busy for the next few years....
IIRC we had approved sale for HIMARS to Taiwan in 2020. Probably 20 systems.
True, not massive defensive lines in those areas you mentioned. Also I think the Russians are pretty much panicking right now even in some parts of Luhansk that they can't coordinate. Probably send in few recon units and light forces to ambush or take some villages or towns while other forces are still consolidating in Kharkiv region. And Luhansk is pretty vulnerable especially dealing with the current Ukrainian military at full war instead of pre war Ukrainian military when they didn't have advanced weaponry and massive forces along with DNR/LNR who have been killed or wounded or MIA or fled to Russia or are operating in another area far from Donbas region.
Problem is, I don't see how Russian can hold on to East of Oksil river.
The majority of the Russian force are either trapped when Izyum-Kupiansk line felt, or fighting in the south near Bakhmut and Siversky. The force that got away is not at all much, you are talking about a division worth or 10 BTG at most. That's nothing. Problem is, lacking defensive position, all they can do is to collect troop that on the way of their retreat, but then how many troops you can gather and mount a proper defence? Not much. Either Russia abandoned the entire Bakhmut and Siversky front and divert those solider to help defend East of Oksil, first of all, this will take time, you don't just disengage and redeploy? Second of all, doing that you basically expose another front the Ukrainian can exploit. Let's not forget how the Russian get into this mess at the begining, they hollow out people too much and when the Ukrainian probe the line, there are no response, and this counter offensive happened.
The only thing I can think of is to send the newly Created 3rd Army 20k strong force to try to hold the Oksil front, but again, it take time to deploy and I am not sure it is any quicker to do them from Russia than from pulling troops from Siversky and Bakhmut? what's more, if and when Lyman felt, the Ukrainian are going to roll up from Lyman and Roll East from Kupiansk to competely encircle the Russian, don't forget they have freed up quite a lot of troop now Izyum is theirs and Kharkiv virtually broke the siege, they can spare more force than the original spearhead that make these advance. That's a dangerous game for Russian to play. You can send in the 3rd Army to try to make a different and gamble it will, but if not, then you just used your strategic reserve for nothing.
On the other hand, if we say Russian had depleted their force and had to rely on Syria Volunteer and PMC, then DNR/LPR are probably at even more dire strait. They don't have the human resource the Russian have, and they have been boring the blunt of most of the fighting, the attrition rate of those Separatist force are going to be bad, in fact, I think if they had won now and took everything in Donbas (Like Bakhmut, Slovianks Kramatosk and so on) They can't govern those area because they would have problem with the number of military personnel. Their rank is depleted so badly I don't think even if they had won, they wouldn't had anyone to defend the gain.
Think most of their troops have been there since the beginning besides the ones that have been sent afterwards as the war goes on.
Russian have to wait til April next year to have the new draftee in to help with number. Or they can try raising volunteer battalion, which so far we see less than 50, and they are more or less just people getting 4 weeks of training and give them weapon and put them in frontline.
It would work if you were the Ukrainian because you are defending the country, it's not good if you are tasked to take cities, an act you would not know how to do if you are a US Soldier unless you went thru 16 weeks of Advance Individual Training as a 11B00.
