Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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I do not know what they think and with which infromation they calculate but for sure you do not wage war with 200k troops with limited air support against now fully mobilised country and suported both materialy and with OSINT by NATO.
As long as Ukraine does not invade Russia proper I doubt Russians cares what happens in Ukraine as long as there is a civil war to prevent Ukraine joining NATO.