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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2


Seems ukraine is breaking well through first line.
Hopefully next lines have fewer mines.

Inching closer to Tokmak.
If Tokmak is taken then Russia defense will crumble. However even from there it’s still a long way to the sea of Asow. The Russians have capacity to lay mines on the move. On average 5 mines are laid in multiple earth layers, per square meter. Incredible dense.
 
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If Tokmak is taken then Russia defense will crumble. However even from there it’s still a long way to the sea of Asow. The Russians have capacity to lay mines on the move. On average 5 mines are laid in multiple earth layers, per square meter. Incredible dense.

not sure but they do double pack them so they can take out tanks

mines have destroyed German Leopards
 
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Almost 100 Leopard 1s stored in the open in Italy as Switzerland blocked their transfer to Ukraine​




>> dissappointing - and why i hope the UK does not get Switzerland invovled in any defence projects.
 
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not sure but they do double pack them so they can take out tanks

mines have destroyed German Leopards
Those Russian mines can’t destroy leopards 2. they can only destroy the tracks so disable the tanks.

The Russians kill themselves anyway by own mine fields. But life is apparently cheap in Russia.
 
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Russia has redeployed some of its most elite troops to the Zaporizhzhia region in an attempt to halt Ukrainian troops from reclaiming the area, according to The Institute for the Study of War.
The Kremlin’s forces have been relocated from the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast to the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast, in a sign that Russia lacks military reserves.
Robotyne has been at the centre of heavy fighting, with Ukrainian forces making “tactically significant gains” in recent days.
Ukrainian and Western sources have reported that Kyiv’s forces may have got through Russia’s strongest defences in the area, though have not achieved a breakthrough so far.
 
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Almost 100 Leopard 1s stored in the open in Italy as Switzerland blocked their transfer to Ukraine​




>> dissappointing - and why i hope the UK does not get Switzerland invovled in any defence projects.
Unfortunately more proof of how inept Europe is. Maybe one day they’ll get it together, but I doubt it.
 
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It's more likely a SAM brought down the plane than a bomb.

With bomb attack, that's explosion is going to cause explosive decompression within the cabin at 25k AGL. The plane will not come down in one giant piece (with only the wing detached) it will be blown outward and collapse inward and stressed the airframe and it will shatter into million little pieces, this is not how we saw in the video (assume the video is actually that plane gone down). On the other hand, a tactically deployed explosive device in the area if it is small enough, it could also detach the wing but run without blasting off the entire plane.

If it was missile, the missile will either go after a radar lock or IR lock, Embraer Legacy 600 have the engine right next to the wing, which is presumed missing in the downing. It would most likely where the missile is heading if it was a heat seeking missile. On the other hand, evidence that does not support this is, there are no missile vapour trail before/after the incident and there are no wreckage of missile found, missile don't ram their target, they use proximity fuze and explode next to their target, so the remaining of a missile would be found or at least seen if it was indeed a missile attack.

But all in all, I would put my money on a missile. Unless some new evidence came up,

I think shrapnel traces are a very evident giveaway to SAM being used.
 
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On the brilliance of Zaluzhny:

I would say UA GHQ is doing everything as conservatively as possible after the initial months, they are not betting on the lower level officers being able to pull out anything extraordinary. They do however bet on them eventually be able to sever the land bridge through a very careful offensive.

UAF lost tons of capable junior officers, and brightest, and most motivated volunteer fighters, no denying that, over the months when allies were slow-walking supplies, and Ukrainians fought through huge material disadvantage on pure morale alone.

Flat terrain of the south is the best place to leverage firepower superiority, but... again, Western hesitation.

Second, on new behind the lines operations:

The higher reliance on relatively low impact spec ops, and behind the lines attacks to fill the media is actually not that good of a news. While losses SAM batteries, enemy officers soiling their pants in fear of a cloak and dagger attacks, and losses of few aircrafts are very significant, the reasons for why they start to reach medias now are not.

Third, on Russians learning how to do orderly fallback.

This is indeed the biggest news of last 2 months. Russians started to fall back, en-masse, and not in a rout, but seemingly tactically sensible ways. Russian regulars take few potshots, stall the attack, and roll back to another line almost immediately, before a more significant force reaches to support the assault on their positions, while leaving levies, and draftees to fight to death in trenches.


Russians in their majority fought until a complete collapse of their units in the majority of times before. I am standing on that they almost never fell back while on defence at sensible level of losses before. Complete loss of well built regular mechanised units was a regular occurence in 2022.
 
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I think shrapnel traces are a very evident giveaway to SAM being used.
Shrapnel can point both ways, you may fancy putting some nail and bolt in a bomb to make sure everyone inside is killed.

But yes, I agree it is most likely SAM brought down the plane.
 
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Came across these very interesting photos showing Russia was using lancet drones in its infancy all the way back in 1945.

1693147429279.png


Similarly catapulting them off of launching rigs but with wheeled capability.

1693147528370.png


Even mounting them on aircraft and dropping them as cruise missiles. @NotSure & @Soldier35 , can either of you fellas make a quick translation of the Russian writing? If you have the time. Thx.

1693147804110.png
 
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Shrapnel can point both ways, you may fancy putting some nail and bolt in a bomb to make sure everyone inside is killed.

But yes, I agree it is most likely SAM brought down the plane.

but then the shrapnel holes would've had edges pointed outwards
 
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