Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[F-22Raptor]

Well, in this case, Russia seems like the second strongest army in Ukraine.

By the way, the ISW comment was taken out of context, this is the original text from ISW.

View attachment 935141

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 18 and made limited territorial gains. Geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces made limited advances within 30km south of Kreminna.Avdiivka City

www.understandingwar.org

This is what we in the business called "Operational Pause" you are looking at a 1200km frontline, you need to pause every once in a while, to reassess options. That does not mean the counteroffensive has stalled. Russia themselves have 4 operational pauses taking Bakhmut alone.


This is nothing more than which area to press next or do they want to up the tempo.

This is quite normal given the length of the entire frontline, you can't apply one option along the entire line, nor can you stick with your original assessment for the entire line, some areas are going to be better performed and some are going to be lacking progress, you take a pause to consolidate gain and figure out which way your troop goes.

That context was taken out of context by Pro-Russian side and many idiot fall for that lol.

I’m thinking this offensive may last well into the fall especially if the US continues to resupply armor. And Abrams tanks are expected to arrive in the fall. Ukraine still has a ton of combat power

 

[jhungary]

I’m thinking this offensive may last well into the fall especially if the US continues to resupply armor. And Abrams tanks are expected to arrive in the fall. Ukraine still has a ton of combat power

They are preparing a 3 to 5 months offensive after I saw news that some TDF are now training for offensive operation (Which mean they are either going to use them after the initial wave or use them as suppliment)

Whether or not the Russian can hang on that long is another matter. I give them 30% chance they can hold the line intact without breach before August.

 

[mulj]

Ukraine still has 95% of its offensive capability for this offensive. Nothing wrong with reevaluating tactics and Ukraine continues to push south and gain territory.

OK, jhungary replied in similar but more detailed manner, so we will see in month how it will go.
My prediction remain same as for the 14 previous days, no strategic gains for UAF.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1670808597184360455

 

[Viet]

interestingly Iran only sold some drone before the war , and some pepsi and soda after the war . nothing else is proven .
and show me a single nu resolution that Iran broke , a single Iranian mercenary there , a single bullet fired from Iran to there .
show me evidence of Iran allowed Russia use its land , airspace and waters to stage any attack on Ukraine.

what i see its you guys frustration that want to blame somebody.
why not blame Iran while NATO members harbor terrorists who attacked Iran and blindly killed iranian civillians , you guys shipped weapon inrto iran and ukrinian aid to zelensky admitted they attacked iran and startt war against Iran , and EU members let them freely operate in their countries.
as i said what you guys complain is just sign of frustration
excuse us if we don't care if you guys are killing each others in wars , it simply let you occupied there in Europe and let the rest of the worth take a breath from your meddeling


you mean these health centers?

we have been there and we saw it already

It’s much like a murder scene. you collect the pieces and put them together. Iran sleeps with Russia in the same bed. Russia and Iran share the common hatred on the west. That’s not even denied by the Mullahs. Iran admitted having delivered drones to Russia. It’s unlikely that Putin’s war machine can produce that amount of Iran drones.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

eventually they will have to sit on table, sooner then we all think from current perspective, on the other hand as much as is russiea "depleted" same or worse could be sad for ukraina but russians have their own armament production gives them upper hand in war calculations.
west is cynical i agree, they will not let that ukraina live defeat but they will not also send enough armament to drive out russians from their country, messed up and diabolical.

Eventually, Russia has to figure out how to exit the mess they have gotten into. Ukraina simply has to refuse to give up.
This is what is called an ”unwinnable war”.

I learned an interesting thing lately. Noone in Sweden has the authority to surrender in case of an invasion. Not the King, not the government, not the Parliament. Individual soldiers may surrender themselves, but noone have the authority to surrender the nation.

 

[Iñigo]

Putin Shows African Leaders Draft Treaty on Ukrainian Neutrality from March 2022 - News From Antiwar.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday met with African leaders in St. Petersburg and displayed a document that he said was a draft treaty on Ukrainian neutrality that was drawn up during negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022. "As you know, a string of talks between Russia and Ukraine took…

news.antiwar.com

 

[mulj]

Eventually, Russia has to figure out how to exit the mess they have gotten into. Ukraina simply has to refuse to give up.
This is what is called an ”unwinnable war”.

I learned an interesting thing lately. Noone in Sweden has the authority to surrender in case of an invasion. Not the King, not the government, not the Parliament. Individual soldiers may surrender themselves, but noone have the authority to surrender the nation.

They reduced their goals signifcantly and have capacity to harras ukrainian civilian life and endlessly fight static war with UAF, so in that sense they are in better position then ukrainians who still have intention to liberate whole country which is bridge to far for who knows how much time, i simply do not see agenda that they will got thousands more tanks, artillery systems, missiles, and hunderds of aircrafts to make it more realistic from military point of view.

Strange situation but understandable, who would attack you anyway in first place...

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1670522740783165442

cool story

 

[HerbertPervert]

They reduced their goals signifcantly and have capacity to harras ukrainian civilian life and endlessly fight static war with UAF, so in that sense they are in better position then ukrainians who still have intention to liberate whole country which is bridge to far for who knows how much time, i simply do not see agenda that they will got thousands more tanks, artillery systems, missiles, and hunderds of aircrafts to make it more realistic from military point of view.

Strange situation but understandable, who would attack you anyway in first place...

Not exactly, Russians cannot sustain an indefinite war. Invaded country will always be at an advantage as long as it can fight back. Sure Ukraine can't fight conventional war indefinitely, but it can mount low intensity guerilla warfare as long as necessary. The same forced Soviets to leave Afghan lands. Ukrainians are much better fighters than Afghans and have a professional military plus superior weaponry for guerilla warfare.

This hype of Russians having Soviet warmachine capable of outstripping others in defense production is just false rhetoric. USSR war production was powerful because the West secretly helped them against Nazis and to continue the threat to feed their industrial complex. If the Russians did have this unstoppable defense production, we wouldn't be seeing WWII tanks in Ukraine right now.

@jhungary

 

[mulj]

Not exactly, Russians cannot sustain an indefinite war. Invaded country will always be at an advantage as long as it can fight back. Sure Ukraine can't fight conventional war indefinitely, but it can mount low intensity guerilla warfare as long as necessary. The same forced Soviets to leave Afghan lands. Ukrainians are much better fighters than Afghans and have a professional military plus superior weaponry for guerilla warfare.

This hype of Russians having Soviet warmachine capable of outstripping others in defense production is just false rhetoric. USSR war production was powerful because the West secretly helped them against Nazis and to continue the threat to feed their industrial complex. If the Russians did have this unstoppable defense production, we wouldn't be seeing WWII tanks in Ukraine right now.

@jhungary

No way that ukrainians could mount hurtfull partisan warfare like afgans did due terrain, language (easier counter intelegence) and modern survelliance assets. Some sabotages periodically but without military significance.
Their best chance is mini offensives like this but with more modest goals until they build up strong enougj army to deliver essencial blows to the russian and that is where west should step in with more effort and speed in order that scenario could have decent chances for success.

 

[HerbertPervert]

No way that ukrainians could mount hurtfull partisan warfare like afgans did due terrain, language (easier counter intelegence) and modern survelliance assets. Some sabotages periodically but without military significance.
Their best chance is mini offensives like this but with more modest goals until they build up strong enougj army to deliver essencial blows to the russian and that is where west should step in with more effort and speed in order that scenario could have decent chances for success.

Where were you since the beginning of this conflict? Javelin and other ATGM were powering Ukranian guerilla tactics and caused Russians to fail to take over Ukraine. They failed to take over Kyiv, the government survived and armed for this offensive.

Ukraine has over 80% of their land with conventional military to guard it. They can start low intensity warfare in occupied territory and mount smaller offensives to salami slice occupied lands. Basically what you are seeing now but at lower intensity & slower pace.

IMO I don't think Ukraine will even need to revert back to asymmetrical warfare. This offensive will breach the Russian lines and the land bridge will be severed. It's just going to take longer and with more casualties.

 

[Iñigo]

I remember when in Europe 30-40 years ago there was freedom of speech in public.

Nowadays no relevant person can go off-script on pain of ostracism. Recall that the chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Finnish parliament was forced to resign for a single sentence saying "maybe someone should say that Ukraine should not be part of NATO."

And the tremendous thing is that we all have to pretend that nothing has happened in the last twenty years. Of course our bosses tolerate us expressing ourselves in bars and taverns; but no important person can go off script in public.

We are the envy of North Korea.

Europe is dead. Rest in peace.

 

[MeFishToo]

I remember when in Europe 30-40 years ago there was freedom of speech in public.

Nowadays no relevant person can go off-script on pain of ostracism. Recall that the chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Finnish parliament was forced to resign for a single sentence saying "maybe someone should say that Ukraine should not be part of NATO."

And the tremendous thing is that we all have to pretend that nothing has happened in the last twenty years. Of course our bosses tolerate us expressing ourselves in bars and taverns; but no important person can go off script in public.

We are the envy of North Korea.

Europe is dead. Rest in peace.

I sometimes doubt you live in Europe.

 

[Paul2]

This is what we in the business called "Operational Pause" you are looking at a 1200km frontline, you need to pause every once in a while, to reassess options. That does not mean the counteroffensive has stalled. Russia themselves have 4 operational pauses taking Bakhmut alone.

Have you noticed the increasing commotion in Kreminna area? Russians went on few bum rushes there, but they also seemingly moved out the few best preserved units from the area, and moved them somewhere over the last few weeks. UA telegrams write of "Russian armour vanishing" from the general area.