Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

gambit · Jan 10, 2023

vizier said:
If Russia retreats from Kherson and Zaporijia southwards to a much smaller sector as well as some smaller new taken area north of Donetsk Luhansk leaving those areas as a buffer zone stationing UN forces it would be almost return to pre-war conditions where they had control in Crimea and Donetsk Luhansk already so there wont be further escalation in those Russian controlled regions in my opinion and the situation won't change much. They would get the security guarantee for Crimea,Donbas regions but with continuing price of economic sanctions that would continue unless they make agreement with Ukraine.

Both sides can accuse locals as collaborating with other side so both Ukraine in regained administrative regions in Kherson Zaporijia should not start an arrest spree of locals as collaborators as well as Russia in its currently controlled regions hunting accused resistance fighters etc. No further arresting operations should be made that should be agreed beforehand. Also Russia won't be turning into Japan of WW2 and start gaining more land since I believe the officials already understood the consequences of starting a war in asymmetric warfare conditions even facing much smaller forces of Ukraine and the difficulty of getting out of it once it starts.

You are -- essentially -- asking the Ukrainians to concede some territory. So how about for negotiations, Ukraine can ask Russia to concede that Ukraine can join NATO. Not that it mattered anyway given what Russia done... :rolleyes:

vizier · Jan 10, 2023

jhungary said:
Problem is, as always "Trust"

There are no trust left between Russia and Ukraine, each side will see the other side of lying, on the other hand, you have Russian doing not really a good job to warrant a cease fire to begin with (it's not like Russia is in anyway threaten Kyiv) so without one side at underhand, and both sides don't trust each other, there can never be negotiation.

The only thing can push Ukraine into Negotiation (as I said, Russia is not really at a position advantage enough to call for one) is NATO, Ukraine will most likely talk if NATO guarantee their security future, but then would Russia comply? Seeing not wanting Ukraine join NATO is one of the reasons why Russia invaded.

So, the end result sadly is, Ukraine won't trust Russia for not ever going to attempt this again, and Russia will not trust Ukraine not to join NATO, hence the war continue.

The only reasonable point this war is going to have a cease fire is one side dominating the other. And at this stage, neither Russia nor Ukraine have the upper hand.

Ukraine aims for EU. there are European countries like France which can be a guarantor country as well as several others. This can be a solution after the ceasefire. Germany, Hungary and many Nato members won't accept Ukraine anyways it is the collective agreement that matters for joining. If Russia clarifies its position limiting SMO objectives officially declaring that it won't involve anywhere else like Odessa, Sumy etc. and ready to give buffer zones it would somewhat give Ukraine the upper hand but at the same time provide security for Crimea and Donbas regions controlled by Russia.

Russian allies also provide support indirectly like drones(Geran-2 and possible joint production of Lancet like drones). Further joint production of these items would not grant Russia victory but will not make Ukraine advance further easily as well. Especially after Russia shows willingness by accepting concesssions and no further operations there would be further support by its allies claiming Ukraine is responsible for ending the conflict with a ceasefire. It would be an excuse to provide more support. It would be a deadlock for a long time.

jhungary · Jan 10, 2023

vizier said:
Ukraine aims for EU. there are European countries like France which can be a guarantor country as well as several others. This can be a solution after the ceasefire. Germany, Hungary and many Nato members won't accept Ukraine anyways it is the collective agreement that matters for joining. If Russia clarifies its position limiting SMO objectives officially declaring that it won't involve anywhere else like Odessa, Sumy etc. and ready to give buffer zones it would somewhat give Ukraine the upper hand but at the same time provide security for Crimea and Donbas regions controlled by Russia.

Russian allies also provide support indirectly like drones(Geran-2 and possible joint production of Lancet like drones). Further joint production of these items would not grant Russia victory but will not make Ukraine advance further easily as well. Especially after Russia shows willingness by accepting concesssions and no further operations there would be further support by its allies claiming Ukraine is responsible for ending the conflict with a ceasefire. It would be an excuse to provide more support. It would be a deadlock for a long time.

That is before Russian invasion. EU does not have a binding mutual defence treaty.

And there are no binding pact other than NATO will provide Ukrainian security partnership, so whether or not Ukraine would be able to join is one thing, they needed NATO membership to be "Secure" is another.

And for the Ukrainian perspective, Russian declaration means nothing. As I said, the trust is gone, it's not something a cease fire can put back in place.

As for whether or not Russia allies provided enough support is another issue.

Viet · Jan 10, 2023

Hassan Al-Somal said:
It is stupid for Ukraine to lose 10s of thousands of men to defend a small place like Bakhmut. It is really makes no any military sense to lose over 35,000 soldiers in a place that has no significant population or an industrial base.

Instead, the Ukrainians could've opened a second front where they could've relieved the pressure from Bakhmut. They could've also focused on cutting down the Russian supply lines that sustain the grinding Bakhmut offensive.

As for the Russians, it makes perfect sense to pool their resources on this front and maintain the grinding and the gradual assault on the huge Ukrainian soldiers who were all gathered in Bakhmut. This is a perfect chance for Russia to kill or cripple the most experienced Ukrainian forces, and as we can all see it is all going well.

So when you compare the tactical and strategies that these opposing armies are pursuing in Bakhmut, you can see the Russian approach makes perfect sense. This is the reason why the Ukrainian casualty rate is far higher than the Russians in Bakhmut.

This should also explain why Russians withdrew the East side of Kherson. They didn't want this front to distract their offensive in the Bakhmut front, and it is paying dividend.

France army lost 500,000 men at Verdun. And what’s the logic? There is no rational logic. It’s just primitive killings. Russia suffered 250,000 in last year. This year will see at least similar Russia’s casualties. We will see who will survive.

ZeGerman · Jan 10, 2023

Hassan Al-Somal said:
This pretty much sums up. The Bakhmut meat grinder has taken its toll on the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612567365576974336

Better trained soldiers who were sitting ducks for aerial, artillery, and grand assaults.

So we have urban fortified defenses and sometimes tunnels…prepared for months…
Russias excuse for not breaking through after 5 months.

yet defenders are at the same time also supposedly “sitting ducks” (how? They are heavily entrenched) for russia’s aerial attack (poor, no air dominance), grand “squad size frontal” assault (hahaha please) and artillery.
The latter is the only one with some merit but artillery advantage has been greatly reduced over course of the war and less accurate then Ukraine’s.

So simply contrary to all military logic.
Sorry buddy, there is a reason we see so many videos of dead russians littering the fields.

vizier · Jan 10, 2023

gambit said:
You are -- essentially -- asking the Ukrainians to concede some territory. So how about for negotiations, Ukraine can ask Russia to concede that Ukraine can join NATO. Not that it mattered anyway given what Russia done...

Ukraine wont be asked to recognize any inch of land belonging to Russia. It would be like returning to pre-war conditions with incurring costs for Russia with economic consequences of sanctions and isolation from Europe unless agreement is reached with Ukraine. This way even in not Putins time future Russian governments would make agreements and concessions with Ukraine possibly giving the Donbass land back with Minsk 3 type of agreements. In Crimea similar concessions can be given by Russia later on instead of ongoing warfware with nuclear escalation possibility for many more years.

Hack-Hook · Jan 10, 2023

jhungary said:
Unless my ex-Ukrainian girlfriend lies to me. A person only speak Ukrainian will not understand Russian no matter how slow he or she speak. The word structure and the context are different. While yes, some words are the similar, but with my basic understand of both languages, I would say it is closer to an English Speaker talk to a German Speaker speaking their respective language.

This is not even at the team of a Chinese Speaker and a Japanese Speaker or Spanish and Portuguese.

I always taught its more spanish speaker talk to Italian speaker situation i heard about more than 60% lexical similarity .
well to be fair Spanish and Italian have around 80% similarity

Hack-Hook · Jan 10, 2023

Viet said:
10 tanks can make a difference my friend. At least at Bakhmut. Not that easy to target the western tanks. They are very agile very protected. With western tanks coming Ukraine will adopt NATO standard of “Gefecht der verbundenen Waffen” or combined arms battle. The tanks will not run alone. They run along with aviation and infantry.

View attachment 910578

2-3 day ago people were talking tanks in number less than hundreds can't make a difference and they are not like system such as Himars , now the narration changed ?

F-22Raptor · Jan 10, 2023

The U.S. is considering sending Stryker armored combat vehicles to Ukraine in an upcoming aid package to help Kyiv fend off an expected Russian spring offensive, according to two people familiar with the discussion.

The news follows the Biden administration’s announcement last week that it will send 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, a powerful tracked armored vehicle that carries an autocannon, a machine gun and TOW missiles.

While Strykers are not as powerful or protective as tanks, the eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems can operate in snow, mud and sand, though off-road mobility is somewhat limited by its lack of tracks.

“Ukrainians need armored personnel carriers and short of other countries providing it, is what we have in inventory,” the DoD official said. “Not as good as a Bradley for a tank fight, but good to protect infantry and get up close to a fight.”