Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[A.P. Richelieu]

Okay, but that doesn't mean they lost, or that they aren't stronger than before.

You do realize that these two concepts are not the same thing, right?

You think that the Israeli goal was to destroy Hezbollah.
I’d say that the Israeli goal was to put a stop to Hezbollah attacks.
The Hezbollah goal was to make Israel leave a corner of territory, which Hezbollah considers to be Lebanese. Israel remains there and both Israel and Hezbollah avoids attacking each other.
You draw your own conclusions from that.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1596485403279855617

https://twitter.com/x/status/1596483166679621632

 

[Ali_Baba]

Ukraine without electricity..

View attachment 900017

So - evidence of Russian war crimes against civilians and civilian infrastructure - right?

 

[Beny Karachun]

A stalemate between a standing army and a militia. That's an automatic victory for the militia.

Lebanon isn't that unstable. It has political crises, but it's no longer a war like situation, or is there a even a threat of civil war.

The SLA may have been lost, but Israel still maintained contact with a number Christian factions and militias, almost all of whom are now nonexistent.

It's economy will eventually recover, the blast that occurred is mainly the culprit behind the devastated economy, which was slowly and steadily recovering at the time.

Meanwhile, Hezbullah still remains a major threat to Israel, and now stronger than ever before, as Israel failed to achieve its goal of eradicating it multiple times.

Okay, can Hezbollah survive another "victory" like this? I don't think so. Another "victory" and Lebanon collapses.

Lebanon is unstable, people hold hostages in the banks because their money is locked every day.

"Non existent" lol, like when the Shiites tried to enter a Christian neighbourhood and met with sniper fire that killed 7 of them? There are people that wait until the perfect moment to overthrow Hezbollah.

Wishful overly optimistic thinking, currently many western countries are struggling, you think Lebanon which is already in a pit will recover? Let alone recover before the conflict with Israel?

Hezbollah is stronger than ever before? All of Hezbollah's weapons have been countered. ATGMs? Trophy APS have been mounted on all Israeli Merkavas and Namer APCs.

Drones? Israeli electronic warfare is the best in the world.

Rockets and missiles? Iron Beam basically nullifies them at a true fraction of the cost but isn't mass produced yet, up until then, the Iron Dome, David's Sling, Barak 8 and Arrow will give the Israeli air force and artillery the crucial time to take out Hezbollah's missile threats, all of that is if Israel doesn't make a preemptive strike that sends Lebanon back into the stone age and flattens every Shia village and neighborhood all across Lebanon.

Israel's goal wasn't to eradicate Hezbollah, it was to stop Hezbollah's rockets. And that succeeded for the last 16 years.

 

[That Guy]

You think that the Israeli goal was to destroy Hezbollah.
I’d say that the Israeli goal was to put a stop to Hezbollah attacks.
The Hezbollah goal was to make Israel leave a corner of territory, which Hezbollah considers to be Lebanese. Israel remains there and both Israel and Hezbollah avoids attacking each other.
You draw your own conclusions from that.

That's not what the winograd commission says. The Israelis consider the war to be a complete failure on their part. They failed to achieve any of their objectives or even degrade Hezbullah's capabilities.

English Summary of the Winograd Commission Report (Published 2008)

www.nytimes.com

On the other hand, Hezbullah repulsed an Israeli invasion force from the mainland. For them it was a victory.

 

[Beny Karachun]

now stronger than ever before

Hezbollah is actually weaker than ever before.

As I mentioned, Israel countered every weapon they have. Lebanon is politically dividend more than ever, they had thousands of casualties in Syria and even more injured, and don't count that as experience since all that experience is worthless, they would be facing an enemy with air superiority, massively upgraded surveillance capability and way bigger armed drone fleet, way more standoff weapons, counter artillery radars linked with HIMARS type MLRS (PULS family) and precision guided 155mm shells for <5 minutes kill chain, the tanks they will be facing wouldn't be T55s operated by goat herders but Merkava Mk4s and Namer/Namera with Trophy APS and new modern systems interlinked with a new BMS that's installed on every Israeli vehicle and platoon, suicide drones, signal jamming, the destruction of every power plant in Lebanon and more.

Israel's army in 2006 is a shadow of Israel's military today. Israel prepared itself for 16 years, adjusted its tactics and technology. Meanwhile Hezbollah remains the same, with the addition of easily encountered drones.

 

[That Guy]

Okay, can Hezbollah survive another "victory" like this? I don't think so. Another "victory" and Lebanon collapses.

Lebanon is unstable, people hold hostages in the banks because their money is locked every day.

"Non existent" lol, like when the Shiites tried to enter a Christian neighbourhood and met with sniper fire that killed 7 of them? There are people that wait until the perfect moment to overthrow Hezbollah.

Wishful overly optimistic thinking, currently many western countries are struggling, you think Lebanon which is already in a pit will recover? Let alone recover before the conflict with Israel?

Hezbollah is stronger than ever before? All of Hezbollah's weapons have been countered. ATGMs? Trophy APS have been mounted on all Israeli Merkavas and Namer APCs.

Drones? Israeli electronic warfare is the best in the world.

Rockets and missiles? Iron Beam basically nullifies them at a true fraction of the cost but isn't mass produced yet, up until then, the Iron Dome, David's Sling, Barak 8 and Arrow will give the Israeli air force and artillery the crucial time to take out Hezbollah's missile threats, all of that is if Israel doesn't make a preemptive strike that sends Lebanon back into the stone age and flattens every Shia village and neighborhood all across Lebanon.

Israel's goal wasn't to eradicate Hezbollah, it was to stop Hezbollah's rockets. And that succeeded for the last 16 years.

Hezbullah is not Lebanon, that is where you're making a mistake.

Hezbullah can absolutely survive, and they can absolutely survive a collapse of the Lebanese state and they're a religious organization first and foremost.

Also, I didn't say that Christian militias are nonexistent, I said Israeli allies among them are.

You also say that Hezbullah's weapons have been countered, but that is idiotic thinking. "Counters" are not foolproof, and technological superiority does not mean victory. EW is also not foolproof, ask the Russians.

Also, Iron beam has never been tested outside of actual controlled environments, we don't know know how effective it even is.

Winograd report pretty much spells out what Israel's aims were. The initial air campaign was to stop the rocket attack, which ended up being a complete failure, because they didn't stop shit. Then Israel sent in ground forces which expected an easy victory, but ended up facing heavy resistance.

You list off system, but the honest truth is that none of them are 100% fool proof.

You laugh, but you can't laugh away reality. In some ways, you're as bad as the Iranian propagandists on PDF.

Hezbollah is actually weaker than ever before.

As I mentioned, Israel countered every weapon they have. Lebanon is politically dividend more than ever, they had thousands of casualties in Syria and even more injured, and don't count that as experience since all that experience is worthless, they would be facing an enemy with air superiority, massively upgraded surveillance capability and way bigger armed drone fleet, way more standoff weapons, counter artillery radars linked with HIMARS type MLRS (PULS family) and precision guided 155mm shells for <5 minutes kill chain, the tanks they will be facing wouldn't be T55s operated by goat herders but Merkava Mk4s and Namer/Namera with Trophy APS and new modern systems interlinked with a new BMS that's installed on every Israeli vehicle and platoon, suicide drones, signal jamming, the destruction of every power plant in Lebanon and more.

Israel's army in 2006 is a shadow of Israel's military today. Israel prepared itself for 16 years, adjusted its tactics and technology. Meanwhile Hezbollah remains the same, with the addition of easily encountered drones.

And Hezbullah of 2006 is a shadow of Hezbullah of today.

What are you talking about. You're listing off system as if you think those alone will win the war.

They faced an enemy with an air force in 2006, and the air force ended up doing little to no damage them them, and only ended up bombing civilian apartments.

Israel had an overwhelming advantage against Hezbullah I'm 2006, and still fucked up.

Why do people like you never understand militias and insurgents can suffer a million casualties, and be just fine?

The taliban in Afghanistan suffered between 30,000 to 100,000 casualties, and guess what? They won.

Dude, stop, you aren't gonna win this argument.

 

[Beny Karachun]

That's not what the winograd commission says. The Israelis consider the war to be a complete failure on their part. They failed to achieve any of their objectives or even degrade Hezbullah's capabilities.

English Summary of the Winograd Commission Report (Published 2008)

www.nytimes.com

On the other hand, Hezbullah repulsed an Israeli invasion force from the mainland. For them it was a victory.

The difference between Israel and its enemies, is thag while Israel critiques every failure it has, Israel's enemies would claim victory regardless of the massive failures they commit and will overlook them.

Objectively speaking, Israel killed 6 Hezbollah terrorists for every Israeli casualty, Kept Lebanese infastracture safe, and the whole operation was short lived and with relatively few casualties. This led to 16 years of silence and led Nasrallah to remain in his bunker for 16 years, and Lebanon's economy was left in the ruins until this day. Meanwhile Israel's economy grew up so much it is now wealthier than most Western European nations.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Well, now the Russian conscript dressed like Stalingrad back in 1942.

Soon, they will dress like North Korean soldier on the DMZ.

Russia is interested in importing clothing and shoes from North Korea

ECONOMICHNA PRAVDA - FRIDAY, 4 NOVEMBER 2022 12:58 The Russian Embassy in North Korea has said that Russia is interested in importing clothing and shoes from the DPRK. Source: Ekonomichna Pravda, referring to the Russian media outlet Kommersant, quoting the embassy The embassy said in a...

news.yahoo.com

Winter is coming and the Russian Army is not ready for winter - it will be a tough winter for the Russian invaders and their numbers will thin out quite a lot due to the cold winter weather. This will make further counter offensives by Ukraine in 2023 even easier.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Okay, can Hezbollah survive another "victory" like this? I don't think so. Another "victory" and Lebanon collapses.

Lebanon is unstable, people hold hostages in the banks because their money is locked every day.

"Non existent" lol, like when the Shiites tried to enter a Christian neighbourhood and met with sniper fire that killed 7 of them? There are people that wait until the perfect moment to overthrow Hezbollah.

Wishful overly optimistic thinking, currently many western countries are struggling, you think Lebanon which is already in a pit will recover? Let alone recover before the conflict with Israel?

Hezbollah is stronger than ever before? All of Hezbollah's weapons have been countered. ATGMs? Trophy APS have been mounted on all Israeli Merkavas and Namer APCs.

Drones? Israeli electronic warfare is the best in the world.

Rockets and missiles? Iron Beam basically nullifies them at a true fraction of the cost but isn't mass produced yet, up until then, the Iron Dome, David's Sling, Barak 8 and Arrow will give the Israeli air force and artillery the crucial time to take out Hezbollah's missile threats, all of that is if Israel doesn't make a preemptive strike that sends Lebanon back into the stone age and flattens every Shia village and neighborhood all across Lebanon.

Israel's goal wasn't to eradicate Hezbollah, it was to stop Hezbollah's rockets. And that succeeded for the last 16 years.

ZioCunt, Hezbollah resistance kicked your never washed arse in 2006. We all saw how your overwhelming firepower couldn't sustain the war and how your baby-killing troops were destroyed in the Bekaa Valley. Your tanks were sitting ducks for the Kornet anti-tank deployed by the Hezbollah resistance fighters. And your population couldn't have stayed in the shelters after 1 month of fighting. The result of the war was your temporary and illegal entity don't dare to attack Lebanon after that war.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

That's not what the winograd commission says. The Israelis consider the war to be a complete failure on their part. They failed to achieve any of their objectives or even degrade Hezbullah's capabilities.

English Summary of the Winograd Commission Report (Published 2008)

www.nytimes.com

On the other hand, Hezbullah repulsed an Israeli invasion force from the mainland. For them it was a victory.

That is not what the Winograd report says.
Certainly there were a lot of criticism, but also of the report.

 

[That Guy]

The difference between Israel and its enemies, is thag while Israel critiques every failure it has, Israel's enemies would claim victory regardless of the massive failures they commit and will overlook them.

Objectively speaking, Israel killed 6 Hezbollah terrorists for every Israeli casualty, Kept Lebanese infastracture safe, and the whole operation was short lived and with relatively few casualties. This led to 16 years of silence and led Nasrallah to remain in his bunker for 16 years, and Lebanon's economy was left in the ruins until this day. Meanwhile Israel's economy grew up so much it is now wealthier than most Western European nations.

Objectively, it was pretty even between 1-2 hezbullah casualty for every 1 Israeli casualty. This is from independent reports.

Only Israel claims a 5-6 to 1 ratio.

Lebanese infrastructure was devastated by Israeli air strikes, this was a major point of criticism that Israel faced, what are you talking about?

Again, you are conflating Hezbullah with Lebanon. This is not a state vs state war, it is a state vs militia war. The Lebanese Army stayed mostly away from the fighting.

You're parroting propaganda that even most objective Israeli analysts don't believe.

That is not what the Winograd report says.
Certainly there were a lot of criticism, but also of the report.
View attachment 900645

That is absolutely what the report says.

The criticism basically amounted to "Israel numbah Wan!" And showed zero evidence to back its criticism.

 

[Beny Karachun]

Hezbullah is not Lebanon, that is where you're making a mistake.

Hezbullah can absolutely survive, and they can absolutely survive a collapse of the Lebanese state and they're a religious organization first and foremost.

Also, I didn't say that Christian militias are nonexistent, I said Israeli allies among them are.

You also say that Hezbullah's weapons have been countered, but that is idiotic thinking. "Counters" are not foolproof, and technological superiority does not mean victory. EW is also not foolproof, ask the Russians.

Also, Iron beam has never been tested outside of actual controlled environments, we don't know know how effective it even is.

Winograd report pretty much spells out what Israel's aims were. The initial air campaign was to stop the rocket attack, which ended up being a complete failure, because they didn't stop shit. Then Israel sent in ground forces which expected an easy victory, but ended up facing heavy resistance.

You list off system, but the honest truth is that none of them are 100% fool proof.

You laugh, but you can't laugh away reality. In some ways, you're as bad as the Iranian propagandists on PDF.


And Hezbullah of 2006 is a shadow of Hezbullah of today.

What are you talking about. You're listing off system as if you think those alone will win the war.

They faced an enemy with an air force in 2006, and the air force ended up doing little to no damage them them, and only ended up bombing civilian apartments.

Israel had an overwhelming advantage against Hezbullah I'm 2006, and still fucked up.

Why do people like you never understand militias and insurgents can suffer a million casualties, and be just fine?

Dude, stop, you aren't gonna win this argument.

Hezbollah will survive because it's an ideology, in order to kill it you need to kill every one of its supporters, but it will be left powerless, Just like Lebanon.

Lebanon has no electricity - that means Lebanon has no pumps, no fuel, no water. I want Hezbollah to try and fight under those conditions.

Russians are a joke, we had a 70 years history of humiliating their equipment. EW works very well, except the frontline of Ukraine is so big neither side can utilize it effectively. This isn't the case in Lebanon.

Israel's slowed advance was largely due to ATGMs hitting Israel's armor, this problem was negated with the Trophy. So next war Israel's advance would be quicker, what's there to not understand?

No weapon is tested in combat situation, before it's tested in combat situation. You'll see just how effective that system really is, just like the world was amazed by the Iron Dome.

There's no need for anything to be 100 percent fool proof. The point of defense systems is to minimize casualties. For example, the Trophy system has a lot more use than just being able to defend tanks. It changes the whole tactical planning and usecase of tanks. A Merkava without Trophy wouldn't dare to rush into the enemy, whereas Merkavas equipped with Trophy would. APCs with no APS wouldn't drive in ATGM threatened roads.

You are right, we in Israel don't see 2006 as a successful war. But that's because we expect a swift, decisive complete victory with minimal casualties. Anything less than that is a failure in our eyes. But if we are not looking from our eyes, the facts remain: Hezbollah took a massive blow, couldn't stop Israel's invasion to South Lebanon and was only saved by the fact Israel's leadership listened to the international community's peace demands, was overwhelmingly tactically disadvantaged in every encounter with an Israeli force, had many times the casualties of Israel, crashed the Lebanese economy ever since and led Israel to overhaul its entire military to successfully fight against Hezbollah.


Hezbollah is a guerilla force in 2006, it didn't have massive easily spotted armor formations. In 2006 optics and intelligence sharing were lacking. Today even tiny drones offer high resolution recording that allows drones and aircraft to effectively destroy enemies. Look at Turkey in Syria, they're making Hezbollah and others a joke with their TB2 drones. Why do you think that's possible? Because of high definition thermal optics and precise munitions. Same thing will happen next war.

Israel had an overwhelming advantage against conventional militaries, not against guerilla forces. Now Israel is trained and equipped to fight against guerilla forces, and you'll see it soon enough.

 

[jhungary]

Winter is coming and the Russian Army is not ready for winter - it will be a tough winter for the Russian invaders and their numbers will thin out quite a lot due to the cold winter weather. This will make further counter offensives by Ukraine in 2023 even easier.

Yes, with most of the occupied Ukrainian territories did not have electricity and gas supply, even the separatist held donbas, Russian is going to face a tough winter

 

[That Guy]

Hezbollah will survive because it's an ideology, in order to kill it you need to kill every one of its supporters, but it will be left powerless, Just like Lebanon.

Lebanon has no electricity - that means Lebanon has no pumps, no fuel, no water. I want Hezbollah to try and fight under those conditions.

Russians are a joke, we had a 70 years history of humiliating their equipment. EW works very well, except the frontline of Ukraine is so big neither side can utilize it effectively. This isn't the case in Lebanon.

Israel's slowed advance was largely due to ATGMs hitting Israel's armor, this problem was negated with the Trophy. So next war Israel's advance would be quicker, what's there to not understand?

No weapon is tested in combat situation, before it's tested in combat situation. You'll see just how effective that system really is, just like the world was amazed by the Iron Dome.

There's no need for anything to be 100 percent fool proof. The point of defense systems is to minimize casualties. For example, the Trophy system has a lot more use than just being able to defend tanks. It changes the whole tactical planning and usecase of tanks. A Merkava without Trophy wouldn't dare to rush into the enemy, whereas Merkavas equipped with Trophy would. APCs with no APS wouldn't drive in ATGM threatened roads.

You are right, we in Israel don't see 2006 as a successful war. But that's because we expect a swift, decisive complete victory with minimal casualties. Anything less than that is a failure in our eyes. But if we are not looking from our eyes, the facts remain: Hezbollah took a massive blow, couldn't stop Israel's invasion to South Lebanon and was only saved by the fact Israel's leadership listened to the international community's peace demands, was overwhelmingly tactically disadvantaged in every encounter with an Israeli force, had many times the casualties of Israel, crashed the Lebanese economy ever since and led Israel to overhaul its entire military to successfully fight against Hezbollah.


Hezbollah is a guerilla force in 2006, it didn't have massive easily spotted armor formations. In 2006 optics and intelligence sharing were lacking. Today even tiny drones offer high resolution recording that allows drones and aircraft to effectively destroy enemies. Look at Turkey in Syria, they're making Hezbollah and others a joke with their TB2 drones. Why do you think that's possible? Because of high definition thermal optics and precise munitions. Same thing will happen next war.

Israel had an overwhelming advantage against conventional militaries, not against guerilla forces. Now Israel is trained and equipped to fight against guerilla forces, and you'll see it soon enough.

Oh my God, it's like arguing with a toddler.

Stop fucking repeating the same damn points over and over again thinking that they'll suddenly become valid if you repeat them enough.

Also, unlike you I don't hope for another war for the peace of the region and the people living there.

"You'll see it soon enough", why would you ever wish for war? Are you mad?