Russia may sell three Project 11356 frigates to India

[Masterhunter]

I can't speak of the validity of that price quote but I can assure you there's no way the IN would be willing to pay such vast sums for 4,000 frigates.


These ships aren't worth almost $800 millon each, for not much more you could get a P-15A which is FAR more capable.

Tht is what I am saying .... If it's quoted 750M presently in the last article and in 2013 it's quoted as 3 billion for 3 frigates...
What stops Russia from quoting the same rate now...
It was 1.6 billion dollars for 3 frigates in 2006... It's 10 yrs now..
More so if a pvt sector say reliance is involved, the cost will increase as they will need money for infrastructure creation.

I know navy may nott pay such high price... But we can't be sure..lot of things run behind scenes...

So, that's why I was asking is it not worth to go for more P17A than krivak IV.... Involve one more shipyard and get three more by 2025.

@sarjenprabhu @Penguin

 

[Penguin]

Sorry but your 2013 article said:

"India to spend $3 billion for 3 more Talwar-class frigates
13 April 2013 Rajeev Sharma, specially for RIR"

Whereas my december 2015 article said:

"According to official sources, India is likely to sign a multi-billion dollar deal for four improved Krivak or Talwar class stealth frigates with Russia — expected to cost upwards of USD 3 billion — during the PM’s visit."

Inflation aside, new equipment is put in the Russian frigate 11356M (hence, the M). Add to that cost of involving a local yard. So, in the end, you are not paying for a more expensive ship but for newer, better systems and local involvement.

I'm not saying it's cheap. Still, earlier we were just discussing getting 3 more new Talwar built in India, rather than taking over nearly finished ones from Russia. Those are not going to involve an Indian yard, I can tell you that right now.

The key here is getting ships to IN quickly.

 

[Blue Marlin]

how much will it cost per ship?

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sorry but your 2013 article said:

"India to spend $3 billion for 3 more Talwar-class frigates
13 April 2013 Rajeev Sharma, specially for RIR"

Whereas my december 2015 article said:

"According to official sources, India is likely to sign a multi-billion dollar deal for four improved Krivak or Talwar class stealth frigates with Russia — expected to cost upwards of USD 3 billion — during the PM’s visit."

Inflation aside, new equipment is put in the Russian frigate 11356M (hence, the M). Add to that cost of involving a local yard. So, in the end, you are not paying for a more expensive ship but for newer, better systems and local involvement.

I'm not saying it's cheap. Still, earlier we were just discussing getting 3 more new Talwar built in India, rather than taking over nearly finished ones from Russia. Those are not going to involve an Indian yard, I can tell you that right now.

The key here is getting ships to IN quickly.

Good points, well made. However, I don't see the pros outweighing the cons- yes the IN would like to get these ships for the sake of rapid induction but not at that price ($800 million-$1 billion per ship). Whilst these frigates are more capable than the Talwars, they are not worth that kind of money, not when the P-15As that are far more capable cost not much more than $800 million/$1BN each. At the end of the day, they are still 4,000 ton frigates that won't come with the kind of high end weaponary and sensor suite the IN now operates (MF-STAR and BARAK-8s).

 

[SR-91]

3 and 4 are incorrect and this isn't the first military sale from Russia to india, India already operates 6 of these very ships not to mention all kinds of other high tech Russian hardware that will include the 5th generation FGFA in the near future.

Yeah, dont forget to mention that Russian defence manufacturers depend heavily on Indian orders.

Bro, do you think these ships will have stealthy flush decks like 17A?

 

[sudhir007]

why not built ship sturcture in pvt shipyard and PSU work is only add weapon and sensor.
it will save time and money.

 

[ito]

the engines issues aside
help me out with a little confusion here.

1. Russia and India have long history of close military ties
2. China and Russia have similar views and agreement vs west on some issue & I guess Russia sympathises with China on south China sea conflict.
3. America is prepping India against China in south China sea conflict
4. India is among the anti china club in those waters.

so if 2 is correct then does this sale not contradict Russia china partnership against the west?

The solutions to the paradox is India and China are playing safe. None wants to declare the other enemy. In view of this any military sales to India will not have any 'objections' from China and any military sales to China, India will 'ignore'. In the end, Russia is raking in money from both.

 

[Penguin]

Good points, well made. However, I don't see the pros outweighing the cons- yes the IN would like to get these ships for the sake of rapid induction but not at that price ($800 million-$1 billion per ship). Whilst these frigates are more capable than the Talwars, they are not worth that kind of money, not when the P-15As that are far more capable cost not much more than $800 million/$1BN each. At the end of the day, they are still 4,000 ton frigates that won't come with the kind of high end weaponary and sensor suite the IN now operates (MF-STAR and BARAK-8s).

My example showed that the 3 billion figure is actually not 1 billion per ship (well, only if it is 3 ships). Rather it is 3 billion for four ships, so its down from 1 billion per ship to 750 million. That's still steep IF THAT IS THE DEAL. I'm still not convinced that it is, especially where the ex-Russian 11356Ms are concerned. I really believe getting those would entail significantly lower unit costs: the Russians need to get rid of them, while recouping some costs so that they can later get their units with domestic engines. No way they will ask or get top dollar.

Conceptually, you have to decouple the ships from the deal. The deal will almost always entail more than just the ships. Hence, dividing the worth of the deal by the number of ships will nearly always yield an inflated 'unit cost'. Thus,. you might end up with a situation were you actually have a 3 billion deal while unit cost of the ships is actually e.g. 400-500 milllion.

Real life is messy.

 

[Masterhunter]

My example showed that the 3 billion figure is actually not 1 billion per ship (well, only if it is 3 ships). Rather it is 3 billion for four ships, so its down from 1 billion per ship to 750 million. That's still steep IF THAT IS THE DEAL. I'm still not convinced that it is, especially where the ex-Russian 11356Ms are concerned. I really believe getting those would entail significantly lower unit costs: the Russians need to get rid of them, while recouping some costs so that they can later get their units with domestic engines. No way they will ask or get top dollar.

Conceptually, you have to decouple the ships from the deal. The deal will almost always entail more than just the ships. Hence, dividing the worth of the deal by the number of ships will nearly always yield an inflated 'unit cost'. Thus,. you might end up with a situation were you actually have a 3 billion deal while unit cost of the ships is actually e.g. 400-500 milllion.

Real life is messy.

Yea my reference say 3 billion/3 ships in 2013... At that time the deal must have included the complete package... As propulsion was not the issue..

As per your refernce, In Dec 2015, it said upwards of 3 billion /4 ships.... That means minimum of 750 million and upper limit we don't know. Also as of now, we also don't know whether it includes propulsion or not as Russia don't have any off the shelf propulsion solution and because of sanctions no one will provide Russia with a off the shelf engines.. So it may be that the cost mentioned in 2015.... May well be EXCLUDING PROPULSION... So if India has to buy engines separately and integrate it ... It will cost minimum 900M for each ships and can very well go above 1 billion dollar....

In 2005/06 for second batch it was 1.6 billion/3 frigates ..about 535M dollar for each... We won't get any cheaper than that...
And it's 10 yrs now... Say 3% inflation per year..about 30% increase is bare minimum.. it's will not be any cheaper than 750M in 2016..even with old weapon suite.. With new improved weapon suite, we don't know how much it will cost...

That is the catch....hope u understood now.....

Also as @Abingdonboy said already, navy won't so much for a 4000 ton frigate..which has limited potential for future upgrade of armaments when they can buy P17A at 800-900M dollar apiece at 6000ton+ and better weapon and sensor suite and space for future expansion...
See Indian navy is not too short on surface platforms...at present they have 10 dest and 5 in production and 14 frigates with 07 in planning. So the deficiency is no so acute as it is in submarine arm.

If Indian navy gets it at 700-750 M/each piece total packaged deal including propulsion, new improved SAM, brahmos.. I am in full support of it...
If not.... It's better to go for more P17A... Involve one pvt shipyard.. And give three more order to it... And increase one each at MDL and GRSE.. By 2027.. We will have 12 P17A frigates..
Or else uprate kamotra class to 4500 tons and make it light frigate and build àbout 6 of it.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

@Penguin , now that Rouble is not so strong, does it mean a further decline in price ?

Or else uprate kamotra class to 4500 tons and make it light frigate and build àbout 6 of it.

Still a 11356 Will be more heavily armed.

And we are very short at surface vessels too.

Count the number of warships and count the number of fleets. Western, Eastern and Far eastern, I am not counting Southern here. We are operating at bare minimum number of ships at present.

Compare this to Chinese navy, 3 Fleets each with on average 9 destroyers, 15 Frigates, 20 corvettes and rest.(.Dont say they have Japan , US and SK also , we too have Pakistan , which now with Chinese assistance can well block the Persian gulf for, we have Bangladesh which is acquiring subs and we have on average 2 Chinese expedition groups in Indian ocean at any given time. ).



Forget about SCS, if we want a control over IOR , we need to make sure the western fleet is capable to take on Pakistani Navy , a Chinese battle group and allies of Pakistan if necessary. Our eastern fleet should be strong enough to provide security to our SSBNs and put up iron control over bay of Bengal, a southern fleet strong enough to put up an Indian presence in Indian ocean islands and a far eastern fleet strong enough to defend A&N islands, put up a blockade upon Chinese vessels through Malacca and if needed show up in SCS.


AND know what, to achieve even 50% of this, we are a lot behind. Very far behind.


Coming for the cost, well the cost of weapons of 7 ships of P17A is alone near 2 billion dollars.And earlier an amount of 45K crore, meaning near 1.1 Billion for each ship construction was sought.

You see 1.1+0.3 => 1.4 Billion US dollars for 1 P17A.

 

[Penguin]

Yea my reference say 3 billion/3 ships in 2013... At that time the deal must have included the complete package... As propulsion was not the issue..

Indeed. Initially, there were ideas to get 3 more Talwar (lets call them 11356i), built in a private yard in India (which would explain the price hike). Here the whole engine issue is moot, as India would import any directly from Ukraine. Lateron, there came along the opportunity to take over 2-3 Adm. Grigorovich class 11356M already building for the Russian navy. The latter option should be cheaper, for 2 reasons: a) the ships would need engines bought seperately from Ukraine and b) it involves no construction in an Indian private yard. Of course, now, having these two options, there is also the possibility to combine.

As per your refernce, In Dec 2015, it said upwards of 3 billion /4 ships.... That means minimum of 750 million and upper limit we don't know. Also as of now, we also don't know whether it includes propulsion or not as Russia don't have any off the shelf propulsion solution and because of sanctions no one will provide Russia with a off the shelf engines.. So it may be that the cost mentioned in 2015.... May well be EXCLUDING PROPULSION... So if India has to buy engines separately and integrate it ... It will cost minimum 900M for each ships and can very well go above 1 billion dollar....

It has been indicated quite clearly that taking over the 11356Ms would mean acquiring propulsion units from Ukraine by India (rather than Russia) and - likely - installing them in India. This shouldn't be complicated as ships are designed to be able to change out gasturbine units (e.g. for maintenance/refurb) during their lifetime. There is no integration issue, therefor, as far as the engines are concerned, as they would be the engines that the ship is designed for to begin with. Besides Talwars, all six of which use DT-59 and DS-71 turbines, the DT-59 is in use on Delhi's, Kolkata's and should hold little secrets in terms of unit cost, operating cost (fuel and parts consumption) and maintenance costs (reliability, mean time between failure etc). There is no way 6 boost and 6 cruise gasturbines would add $450 million (3x $150million). After all:
New twin-shank and single-shank LM2500 engines cost $2.5 million and $3.5 million, respectively.
(Jul 17, 2007 price quote)
http://www.navair.navy.mil/index.cfm?fuseaction=home.NAVAIRNewsStory&id=3750

In 2005/06 for second batch it was 1.6 billion/3 frigates ..about 535M dollar for each... We won't get any cheaper than that... And it's 10 yrs now... Say 3% inflation per year..about 30% increase is bare minimum.. it's will not be any cheaper than 750M in 2016..even with old weapon suite.. With new improved weapon suite, we don't know how much it will cost...

I've already addressed this myself earlier.

That is the catch....hope u understood now.....

Likewise. I'm indicating again, without details of the actual deal behind a price quote, it is all speculation. And one needs to seperate out actual ship cost from other cost, when looking at a deal.

Also as @Abingdonboy said already, navy won't so much for a 4000 ton frigate..which has limited potential for future upgrade of armaments when they can buy P17A at 800-900M dollar apiece at 6000ton+ and better weapon and sensor suite and space for future expansion...

The reason IN was considering another batch of Talwar ships was that they needed shipreplacement and naval yards were already occupied building other ships. So the point never was about which is the better ship, of what would technically be the ideal frigate. Incidentally, I don't see how Talwars are limited in upgrade potatial relative to P17: they share so many systems e.g. single rail sam launcher (VLU drop in), e.g. CMS e.g. radar. I don't see a reason why e.g. you can't drop in a few VL units for SR-SAM/Maitri on the batch 2's (which only have AK630) or replace the Kashtan unit on the batch 1s with a few SR/SAM and a pair of single AK630. Or upgrading the universal launcher and control system to accommodate Brahmos.

See Indian navy is not too short on surface platforms...at present they have 10 dest and 5 in production and 14 frigates with 07 in planning. So the deficiency is no so acute as it is in submarine arm.

IN is paying off the P26 Godavari's (3 ships: 1983, 1985, 1988). The Rajput will not last forever either (5 ships: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1988). Next will be the P15 Delhi class (3 ships: 1997, 1999, 2001) and P16A Brahmaputra class (3 ships: 2000, 2004, 2005). And then you can start the three Batch 1 Talwars (2003, 2003, 2004). And the P17s (3 ships: 2010, 2011, 2012).

Lets add a (generous) service lif of 35 years, then WITHOUT FLEET EXPANSION you need new ships as follows
2015 destroyer (2012)
2017 destroyer (2014)
2018 frigate (2015)
2018 destroyer (2015)
2020 frigate (2017)
2021 destroyer (2018)
2023 frigate (2020)
2023 destroyer (2020)
2032 destroyer (2029)
2034 destroyer (2031)
2035 frigate (2032)
2036 destroyer (2033)
2039 frigate (2036)
2040 frigate (2037)

Note that Godavari has already been decomisisoned at age 32. Note that the average age at decommissioning of Niligir class was 32 years (leaving out Nilgiri itself, which served only 24 years). So, the needs are actually more pressing than indicated about by about 3 years. See years between brackets.

Besides 3+3 Talwar's there are 3 P17s are in service (9 frigates).

3 P15A destroyers are coming into service 2014-2016
4 P15B destroyers are expected to commission 2018-2024
7 P17A frigates expected to commission starting 2022
No frigates are currently under construction

Between 2014 and 2022 IN needs to replace 5 Rajput and 3 Godavari (8 ships).
Between 2014 and 2022 IN will be receiving (if all goes as planned) 3 P15A and 3 P15B (6 ships)
That is a shortfall of 2 ships by 2022, the year in which the first P17A is planned to commission.

By 2025, there will be 1 more P15B and perhaps the first P17A (if there are no delays). However, by 2025 India plans to be operating not 1 but 2 carriers, so will actually need to increase the number of carrier escorts available, rather than keep it stable. Therein lies the motivation for 3 more Talwars before 2022-2025, on top of any P17A/B from 2022 on.

Thus far only 4 P28 Kamorta have been ordered, of which 2 have been commissioned and 2 will be commissioning 2016-2017. But these - and more - are needed because the P25 (4 ships: 1989, 1990, 1991, 1991) and P25A (4 ships: 1981, 2001, 2001, 2004) won't last forever. So, extra P28s do not cover the shortfall in larger (fleet escort) ships in the near term.

If Indian navy gets it at 700-750 M/each piece total packaged deal including propulsion, new improved SAM, brahmos.. I am in full support of it...
If not.... It's better to go for more P17A... Involve one pvt shipyard.. And give three more order to it... And increase one each at MDL and GRSE.. By 2027.. We will have 12 P17A frigates..
Or else uprate kamotra class to 4500 tons and make it light frigate and build àbout 6 of it.

I'm not so much interested in what would be a better option as I am in what the deal is going to be, as there likely will be another Talwar deal (regardless of whether we want that or not)

 

[MKC]

Indeed. Initially, there were ideas to get 3 more Talwar (lets call them 11356i), built in a private yard in India (which would explain the price hike). Here the whole engine issue is moot, as India would import any directly from Ukraine. Lateron, there came along the opportunity to take over 2-3 Adm. Grigorovich class 11356M already building for the Russian navy. The latter option should be cheaper, for 2 reasons: a) the ships would need engines bought seperately from Ukraine and b) it involves no construction in an Indian private yard. Of course, now, having these two options, there is also the possibility to combine.


It has been indicated quite clearly that taking over the 11356Ms would mean acquiring propulsion units from Ukraine by India (rather than Russia) and - likely - installing them in India. This shouldn't be complicated as ships are designed to be able to change out gasturbine units (e.g. for maintenance/refurb) during their lifetime. There is no integration issue, therefor, as far as the engines are concerned, as they would be the engines that the ship is designed for to begin with. Besides Talwars, all six of which use DT-59 and DS-71 turbines, the DT-59 is in use on Delhi's, Kolkata's and should hold little secrets in terms of unit cost, operating cost (fuel and parts consumption) and maintenance costs (reliability, mean time between failure etc). There is no way 6 boost and 6 cruise gasturbines would add $450 million (3x $150million). After all:
New twin-shank and single-shank LM2500 engines cost $2.5 million and $3.5 million, respectively.
(Jul 17, 2007 price quote)
http://www.navair.navy.mil/index.cfm?fuseaction=home.NAVAIRNewsStory&id=3750



I've already addressed this myself earlier.


Likewise. I'm indicating again, without details of the actual deal behind a price quote, it is all speculation. And one needs to seperate out actual ship cost from other cost, when looking at a deal.


The reason IN was considering another batch of Talwar ships was that they needed shipreplacement and naval yards were already occupied building other ships. So the point never was about which is the better ship, of what would technically be the ideal frigate. Incidentally, I don't see how Talwars are limited in upgrade potatial relative to P17: they share so many systems e.g. single rail sam launcher (VLU drop in), e.g. CMS e.g. radar. I don't see a reason why e.g. you can't drop in a few VL units for SR-SAM/Maitri on the batch 2's (which only have AK630) or replace the Kashtan unit on the batch 1s with a few SR/SAM and a pair of single AK630. Or upgrading the universal launcher and control system to accommodate Brahmos.


IN is paying off the P26 Godavari's (3 ships: 1983, 1985, 1988). The Rajput will not last forever either (5 ships: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1988). Next will be the P15 Delhi class (3 ships: 1997, 1999, 2001) and P16A Brahmaputra class (3 ships: 2000, 2004, 2005). And then you can start the three Batch 1 Talwars (2003, 2003, 2004). And the P17s (3 ships: 2010, 2011, 2012).

Lets add a (generous) service lif of 35 years, then WITHOUT FLEET EXPANSION you need new ships as follows
2015 destroyer (2012)
2017 destroyer (2014)
2018 frigate (2015)
2018 destroyer (2015)
2020 frigate (2017)
2021 destroyer (2018)
2023 frigate (2020)
2023 destroyer (2020)
2032 destroyer (2029)
2034 destroyer (2031)
2035 frigate (2032)
2036 destroyer (2033)
2039 frigate (2036)
2040 frigate (2037)

Note that Godavari has already been decomisisoned at age 32. Note that the average age at decommissioning of Niligir class was 32 years (leaving out Nilgiri itself, which served only 24 years). So, the needs are actually more pressing than indicated about by about 3 years. See years between brackets.

Besides 3+3 Talwar's there are 3 P17s are in service (9 frigates).

3 P15A destroyers are coming into service 2014-2016
4 P15B destroyers are expected to commission 2018-2024
7 P17A frigates expected to commission starting 2022
No frigates are currently

Between 2014 and 2022 IN needs to replace 5 Rajput and 3 Godavari (8 ships).
Between 2014 and 2022 IN will be receiving (if all goes as planned) 3 P15A and 3 P15B (6 ships)
That is a shortfall of 2 ships by 2022

By 2025 India plans to be operating not 1 but 2 carriers, so will actually need to increase the number of carrier escorts available. Thus far only 4 P28 Kamorta have been ordered. But these - and more - are also needed because the P25 (4 ships: 1989, 1990, 1991, 1991) and P25A (4 ships: 1981, 2001, 2001, 2004) won't last forever. So P28s do not cover the shortfall in larger ships in the near term.


I'm not so much interested in what would be a better option as I am in what the deal is going to be, as there likely will be another Talwar deal (regardless of whether we want that or not)

As you know nNumber of corvettes is not problem but number of frigates is.
IN has plan for 16, 700 tonnes ASW Shallow Water Craft & 6 Next Generation Missile Vessels about 2000 tonnes.
Another problem about getting these ships from Russia creates another problem for Prime Minister in parliament who have to reply when there is too much talk about make in India.

 

[帅的一匹]

They don't have engine, how to solve it?

 

[Penguin]

As you know nNumber of corvettes is not problem but number of frigates is.
IN has plan for 16, 700 tonnes ASW Shallow Water Craft & 6 Next Generation Missile Vessels about 2000 tonnes.
Another problem about getting these ships from Russia creates another problem for Prime Minister in parliament who have to reply when there is too much talk about make in India.

And the IN will need to replace 13 Veer class corvettes (1987-1997: 11 units. 2002: 2 units) plus 4 Abhay class corvette (4 units, 1989-1991). My, what a conincidence, that is 17 vessels. With the current 4x Kamorta replacing 4x P25 Khukri, the 6 next generation missile vessels replace the 4x P25A Khoras.

Minor surface combattants (under 3000 ton)
13+4+4+4=25 ships out
4+16+6=26 ships in
net fleet expansion = 1

They don't have engine, how to solve it?

Simple, buy ships without engines from Russia and engines directly from the supplier Ukraine rather than have Russia buy them from Ukraine and then get ships with engines from Russia.

Any more questions?

 

[INDIAISM]

And the IN will need to replace 13 Veer class corvettes (1987-1997: 11 units. 2002: 2 units) plus 4 Abhay class corvette (4 units, 1989-1991). My, what a conincidence, that is 17 vessels. With the current 4x Kamorta replacing 4x P25 Khukri, the 6 next generation missile vessels replace the 4x P25A Khoras.

Minor surface combattants (under 3000 ton)
13+4+4+4=25 ships out
4+16+6=26 ships in
net fleet expansion = 1


Simple, buy ships without engines from Russia and engines directly from the supplier Ukraine rather than have Russia buy them from Ukraine and then get ships with engines from Russia.

Any more questions?

Sir I think you forgot to include 8 P28A in that list...