After seeing the performance of Russian equipment in Ukraine, it is unlikely that India will invest more $$ into Russian weapons. Fortunately for India, they exited the FGFA program at a minimal cost.
It isn't just a case of the performance of Russian equipment, which has a lot of propaganda from the Ukraine/West side acting against it.
The issue is more from a geopolitical point of view. Going forward, the Govt of India cannot possibly create a dependency on Russian arms, however cost effective they may be. Already we know that it is a liability in the event of a major situation arising on the Western or Easter front, because the supply and logistics from Russian factories is now much more constrained.
Also, Western govts and Western media will play up any deal with Russia in a way to spoil India's name internationally. They tried it with the oil deals but PM Modi didn't budge despite all the PR that was done against him and India.
But at the same time, Russia is and will remain an important ally of India, given how the West can never be fully trusted and how China will remain an eternal enemy.
With Indian defence industry having crossed the hump, so to say, of technological barriers, it is now feasible for India to develop it's own arms without having to import them entirely. JVs for some technologies may be still required, but for that Western firms may be preferred since the costs involved may be manageable.
The next Indian MBT as well as IFV will be a JV between DRDO and Indian pvt industry majors like L&T (who build the Hanhwa K-9 Vajra), Tatas (who build the DRDO WhAP) and possibly Kalyani /Bharat Forge. Whichever specific technologies are not available locally, you'll probably see JVs with Israeli and Western firms. But most of it will be indigenous.
Of course all this will hold true only if PM Modi remains in power. If a person like Rahul Gandhi comes into power, everything could be unravelled very quickly in order to access bribes of thousands of crores of Rs which foreign firms will happily pay to break open the Indian market again.
wavellroom.com
