Russia & China Gas Deal : Impact on India

[My-Analogous]

As most of you know Russia & China have signed a bilateral gas deal which is estimated to be worth over $400bn (BBC news article). The supply is expected to commence from 2018 onwards. By any means of imagination this is a very big deal and can tilt Russia's interest towards China.

With its huge population base China has the same consuming power as India. With this new business development I suspect China will sooner or later bring up the defense contracts too into the equation and Russia will happen to agree. May be because of this new trade Russia may for the first time choose to stay neutral or not support India in case of escalating tension between India and any other country.

Well, that's my analysis at the moment. However I would like to get your opinion on this. Do you think this deal will make Russia think differently regarding India in future? If so which country do we look towards to to neutralize this threat. Also I believe this should be a warning bell to the defense sector to invest more in indigenous home grown technology as Russia may start selling advance weapons to China (or is it too quick to assume so)

Play nice please, just a discussion. Don't offend anyone

~NPM

The movement we received RD93, you guys should know that where balance were going.

 

[Mr.S.Singh]

Apparently Russia does not agree with you.

Look at where Putin is now.

Its business for Russians, Don't forget how they have closed their gas taps for European countries on their whims. As long as it is profitable for Russians the gas shall flow.

As for India, sit back and play your game, Russia will not leave a developing market that is spending billions on Weapons and Has recently opening its country for R&D in defense. India has discover plenty gas for its self, and is getting em at 4$ nows and is set to rise to 8$'s (matters at court) against 10$ to china.

 

[chhota bheem]

So I guess Russia selling weapons to your enemies, including engines for Pakistan's JF-17 and Su-35 to China, is not against India's interests at all?

Will India take a strong stand against America, in support of Russia? Like when we ignored the warnings of NATO not to veto the Syria resolution, and vetoed it anyway?

India does not even have veto, yet you didn't back Russia on that UN vote.

What are you trying to say,you are all over the place,400 billion no doubt is a big deal,break it down to 30 years gives you a picture .
now if you think Russia will bend over to china for the deal ,i think you are asking for too much,for your ref do you know where do you guys export the most ?

 

[axisofevil]

Told you! Russia and China will become closer than before. This is just the beginning. It will get more complicated. India has no weight to pull. We had an advantage when we had the whole state of Kashmir, which gave us an link to Afghanistan and Central Asia but due to long term planning by China, Pakistan invaded and our dumbass leaders did nothing. China on a calculated move took over Tibet, controlling our rivers. Even after the 1971 war, we did nothing to get bakc our lost lands. We did nothing to create better borders with Bangladesh and Pakistan. Thank you to our clueless leaders again.


If you think this was a just a mere coincidence, you are a bunch of idiots. China has been actively playing us strategically for a long, long time.

 

[spectribution]

So I guess Russia selling weapons to your enemies, including engines for Pakistan's JF-17 and Su-35 to China, is not against India's interests at all?

Will India take a strong stand against America, in support of Russia? Like when we ignored the warnings of NATO not to veto the Syria resolution, and vetoed it anyway?

India does not even have veto, yet you didn't back Russia on that UN vote.

SU 35 deal is claimed false every 6 months it reappears by your own Chinese brethren. JF 17 engines dependence is good as the spare parts can be made to stop up in the vent of war.

Russia is having multi billion dollar ventures like PAKFA with India, they sell us Aircraft Carriers and nuke subs something no country will ever do. This is because our friendship is built on trust and faith not money and bluffing.

The deal between China - Russia is simple oil => money => GET AROUND SANCTIONS.

If India shared a land border with Russia we would have got one too. We ship it for now.

Oil India buys 50% stake in Russian oil block for $85 million - The Economic Times

Told you! Russia and China will become closer than before. This is just the beginning. It will get more complicated. India has no weight to pull. We had an advantage when we had the whole state of Kashmir, which gave us an link to Afghanistan and Central Asia but due to long term planning by China, Pakistan invaded and our dumbass leaders did nothing. China on a calculated move took over Tibet, controlling our rivers. Even after the 1971 war, we did nothing to get bakc our lost lands. We did nothing to create better borders with Bangladesh and Pakistan. Thank you to our clueless leaders again.


If you think this was a just a mere coincidence, you are a bunch of idiots. China has been actively playing us strategically for a long, long time.

Take an Asprin and read my reply.

 

[Superboy]

Russia itself is feeling threatened by the rise of China.How long before China declares that since Russian far east belonged to some obscure Chinese dynasty in the past, it should be returned to China.
Already China is sending settlers by the droves into Siberia and far east.

Russia would be prudent to keep India as a counterweight to check Chinese influence.


So, in my opinion, Russia can not afford to alienate India at the behest of China.

AFAIK China and Russia do not have any territorial disputes. The very last one was settled in 2008 and that was regarding a tiny sedimentary island. China might invade and annex Mongolia since China already has Inner Mongolia, but I don't see China going further than that.

As for Chinese colonizing Siberia, I don't see that happening. Chinese people are accustomed to warm places. They can't survive in Siberia. Plus, one can argue that the US is being colonized by illegal Mexicans and Puerto Ricans flooding New York, Texas, California, Florida etc.

China makes a very powerful ally. China has J-10B jets and is deploying J-20 soon. India does not have its own fighter jets.

 

[spectribution]

AFAIK China and Russia do not have any territorial disputes. The very last one was settled in 2008 and that was regarding a tiny sedimentary island. China might invade and annex Mongolia since China already has Inner Mongolia, but I don't see China going further than that.

As for Chinese colonizing Siberia, I don't see that happening. Chinese people are accustomed to warm places. They can't survive in Siberia. Plus, one can argue that the US is being colonized by illegal Mexicans and Puerto Ricans flooding New York, Texas, California, Florida etc.

China makes a very powerful ally. China has J-10B jets and is deploying J-20 soon. India does not have its own fighter jets.

SU 30 MKI
MIG 29 UPG
MIRAGE 2000H MK2

FUTURE

PAKFA
RAFALE

 

[Superboy]

SU 30 MKI
MIG 29 UPG
MIRAGE 2000H MK2

FUTURE

PAKFA
RAFALE

PAK-FA is Russian. Rafale is French. As the Chinese say, a country that doesn't have its own fighter jets has no global power.

 

[Raphael]

PAK-FA is Russian. Rafale is French. As the Chinese say, a country that doesn't have its own fighter jets has no global power.

But it's not completely Russian. India provided the paint job!

 

[mike2000]

hmmm....well i have been saying this for a while. India still thinks it can play both sides i.e Russia and the west/U.S against each other and China to further its interests. The point is India doesnt have a clear vision/foreign policy. It doesnt yet know what vision/position it wants for itself in the world(contrary to China and Russia). If India thinks it can keep playing the west and Russia then its mistaking. Our governments are smart in foreign policy, they are not dumb to notice how India sometimes take a stance against our core interests like Ukraine and votes in security council against syria for example. All of these things are clearly noted by our governments. The thing is India doesnt have a big world economic Influence like U.S China,France, U.K, Japan or even Russia. Its world economic influence/trade is even below south Korea and its military is largely dependent on Russia and increasingly U.S/Isreal. Its still at best a semi regional power. But nevertheless its still a big country which no country can ignore. All its neighbours are also wary of it, so it doesnt have much influence in its region either(as its trade is still more internal than external coupled with its weak military industrial complex which doesnt allow it to export weapons to allies/partners ). So all this makes it an insecure power. In this regard the U.S will like to have India by itside but not as an equal partner(which it isn't obviously) but as a junior partner to be used against China. But india still cherish its soverignty alot and so its very cautious/wary of U.S intentions. So India is in a dilemna, it cant afford to fully ally itself with Russia in fear of antagonizing the U.S/west, and it cant afford either to ally with the U.S in fear of antagonizing Russia. So its in the same situation as Vietnam. They are both wary of China, but cant afford to seek/ally with Russia or the west/U.S in fear of antagonizing one of the two.
However, it will be best for India(and even Vietnam) to shed their old cold war romanticism/friendship with the U.S.S.R (Russia), we are living in a different world today, Russia is a diminished(though still potent regional) power. India and vietnam will be better off allying with the U.S/west, since the U.S is the only country who will support them against China. Russia will never jeopardize its deep/beneficial relationship with China for India and much less little Vietnam. Russia and China share common world interests/issues and are ready to stand against the so called 'U.S/western imperialism' . So they will stick with each other to challenge the west, all other regional issues China/Russia face will be secoundary to their world interests against the west.
So India(and to some extent Vietnam) will do well to forget Russia sensitivities and ally with the U.S, this will help them much more against China. This is the best solution i see for them. The Only other alternative will be to partner/negotiate with China bilaterally to solve their differences(which im sure India wiouldnt want to be seen as a junior partner to China as well), so it will be better for India to side with the U.S/west, since it will be more beneficial in the long term than remaining with an old declining Russia. India can keep deluding itself that it can keep on playing both sides(or that russia will take it side against China.lol), because trying to play both sides will one day backfire, since in critical time of need/when in conflict, neither Russia nor the U.S /west will side/help India when push comes to shove against chin, since they will both be wary/cautious of its duplicity. You cant play both sides forever. So siding with the U.S will be the best option.IMO

 

[Kurama]

hmmm....well i have been saying this for a while. India still thinks it can play both sides i.e Russia and the west/U.S against each other and China to further its interests. The point is India doesnt have a clear vision/foreign policy. It doesnt yet know what vision/position it wants for itself in the world(contrary to China and Russia). If India thinks it can keep playing the west and Russia then its mistaking. Our governments are smart in foreign policy, they are not dumb to notice how India sometimes take a stance against our core interests like Ukraine and votes in security council against syria for example. All of these things are clearly noted by our governments. The thing is India doesnt have a big world economic Influence like U.S China,France, U.K, Japan or even Russia. Its world economic influence/trade is even below south Korea and its military is largely dependent on Russia and increasingly U.S/Isreal. Its still at best a semi regional power. But nevertheless its still a big country which no country can ignore. All its neighbours are also wary of it, so it doesnt have much influence in its region either(as its trade is still more internal than external coupled with its weak military industrial complex which doesnt allow it to export weapons to allies/partners ). So all this makes it an insecure power. In this regard the U.S will like to have India by itside but not as an equal partner(which it isn't obviously) but as a junior partner to be used against China. But india still cherish its soverignty alot and so its very cautious/wary of U.S intentions. So India is in a dilemna, it cant afford to fully ally itself with Russia in fear of antagonizing the U.S/west, and it cant afford either to ally with the U.S in fear of antagonizing Russia. So its in the same situation as Vietnam. They are both wary of China, but cant afford to seek/ally with Russia or the west/U.S in fear of antagonizing one of the two.
However, it will be best for India(and even Vietnam) to shed their old cold war romanticism/friendship with the U.S.S.R (Russia), we are living in a different world today, Russia is a diminished(though still potent regional) power. India and vietnam will be better off allying with the U.S/west, since the U.S is the only country who will support them against China. Russia will never jeopardize its deep/beneficial relationship with China for India and much less little Vietnam. Russia and China share common world interests/issues and are ready to stand against the so called 'U.S/western imperialism' . So they will stick with each other to challenge the west, all other regional issues China/Russia face will be secoundary to their world interests against the west.
So India(and to some extent Vietnam) will do well to forget Russia sensitivities and ally with the U.S, this will help them much more against China. This is the best solution i see for them. The Only other alternative will be to partner/negotiate with China bilaterally to solve their differences(which im sure India wiouldnt want to be seen as a junior partner to China as well), so it will be better for India to side with the U.S/west, since it will be more beneficial in the long term than remaining with an old declining Russia. India can keep deluding itself that it can keep on playing both sides(or that russia will take it side against China.lol), because trying to play both sides will one day backfire, since in critical time of need/when in conflict, neither Russia nor the U.S /west will side/help India when push comes to shove against chin, since they will both be wary/cautious of its duplicity. You cant play both sides forever. So siding with the U.S will be the best option.IMO

okay......
u have written from ur prospective and its good.... appreciated...

 

[npm]

As per wiki Indo-Russian trade (India–Russia relations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) stands at $11.04 bn (this includes all sectors; power, defense, industry..) which will still be significantly less than the single gas deal between China and Russia ~$13bn a year (400bn for 30 yrs; as signed contract).


This is where I believe things get interesting. Now that the deal is signed Russians will drive a hard bargain in future and current deals with India knowing very well that India. Reason being India doesn’t have any other all-weather friend who can fulfill her defense requirements and Russian leaning towards China makes the Indian diplomatic establishment jittery. Also with all the deals lost in recent times to other countries esp western and European, it may want to tighten the screws a bit. But this is just a theory, for all you know money or not Russia may always be our true friend.


Assuming the worst what are our options in regards to
1. Country(s) : Who can we engage with to neutralize the threat and still fulfill our defense needs
2. Weapons and Platforms : Should we buy / develop on own to sustain or maintain a minimum deterrent
3. Bait : Is there any deal equivalent to what China signed that we could offer to Russia to level the playing field.


As always play nice….


PS:
In this modern world there is never going to be a full blown war. It just to see who supports you and who’s got your back in the event of a standoff (ex: Kargil)

-NPM

 

[Span]

hmmm....well i have been saying this for a while. India still thinks it can play both sides i.e Russia and the west/U.S against each other and China to further its interests. The point is India doesnt have a clear vision/foreign policy. It doesnt yet know what vision/position it wants for itself in the world(contrary to China and Russia). If India thinks it can keep playing the west and Russia then its mistaking. Our governments are smart in foreign policy, they are not dumb to notice how India sometimes take a stance against our core interests like Ukraine and votes in security council against syria for example. All of these things are clearly noted by our governments. The thing is India doesnt have a big world economic Influence like U.S China,France, U.K, Japan or even Russia. Its world economic influence/trade is even below south Korea and its military is largely dependent on Russia and increasingly U.S/Isreal. Its still at best a semi regional power. But nevertheless its still a big country which no country can ignore. All its neighbours are also wary of it, so it doesnt have much influence in its region either(as its trade is still more internal than external coupled with its weak military industrial complex which doesnt allow it to export weapons to allies/partners ). So all this makes it an insecure power. In this regard the U.S will like to have India by itside but not as an equal partner(which it isn't obviously) but as a junior partner to be used against China. But india still cherish its soverignty alot and so its very cautious/wary of U.S intentions. So India is in a dilemna, it cant afford to fully ally itself with Russia in fear of antagonizing the U.S/west, and it cant afford either to ally with the U.S in fear of antagonizing Russia. So its in the same situation as Vietnam. They are both wary of China, but cant afford to seek/ally with Russia or the west/U.S in fear of antagonizing one of the two.
However, it will be best for India(and even Vietnam) to shed their old cold war romanticism/friendship with the U.S.S.R (Russia), we are living in a different world today, Russia is a diminished(though still potent regional) power. India and vietnam will be better off allying with the U.S/west, since the U.S is the only country who will support them against China. Russia will never jeopardize its deep/beneficial relationship with China for India and much less little Vietnam. Russia and China share common world interests/issues and are ready to stand against the so called 'U.S/western imperialism' . So they will stick with each other to challenge the west, all other regional issues China/Russia face will be secoundary to their world interests against the west.
So India(and to some extent Vietnam) will do well to forget Russia sensitivities and ally with the U.S, this will help them much more against China. This is the best solution i see for them. The Only other alternative will be to partner/negotiate with China bilaterally to solve their differences(which im sure India wiouldnt want to be seen as a junior partner to China as well), so it will be better for India to side with the U.S/west, since it will be more beneficial in the long term than remaining with an old declining Russia. India can keep deluding itself that it can keep on playing both sides(or that russia will take it side against China.lol), because trying to play both sides will one day backfire, since in critical time of need/when in conflict, neither Russia nor the U.S /west will side/help India when push comes to shove against chin, since they will both be wary/cautious of its duplicity. You cant play both sides forever. So siding with the U.S will be the best option.IMO

As always, you fail to understand the gist of our foreign policy.

1.) We do not 'just take sides' on international stage, like much of Europe follows suit wherever US leads. Like, for example, you pointed out India abstaining from voting on Syrian resolution. Now you put this in very simple terms and state we have gone against your interests. But rather, that was an application of a consistent foreign policy, which primarily aims at not undermining any other nation's sovereignty, something which is US' forte.

As for Ukraine, our external affairs ministry has resisted to align with the Russians, and it is only our National Security Adviser who has called for a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the crisis, in the way, recognizing 'legitimate Russian interests'. I do not see anything wrong here. If there's any duplicity to be seen here, it is rather the US'. Leading the global war on terror, irrespective of the collateral damage it has caused, all in the name of 'national security'. And when Russia does the same for protecting Russians, US led NATO countries escalate this into a crisis.

2.) Our economic influence, at present, may not be at par with that of Japan or such nations, but we do have the potential to not only expand, but also surpass these nations, which is what counts at the end of the day. We're still a developing nation, with a lot of internal issues to deal with first.

3.) You guys having a smart foreign policy? Now that's a first. The only policy that I have seen you guys following is that of the US'.

4.) And finally, why do we need to take sides in the first place? A more pragmatic way would be to resolve our issues with China bilaterally, and this is what we expect from the new government. Aligning with US is only going to result in an unstable neighborhood, and we are not willing to commit the same blunders as some of our political leadership has committed in the past. We want good relations with our neighbors (you can count out Pakistan, it is just natural), but particularly good relations with China.

 

[mike2000]

As always, you fail to understand the gist of our foreign policy.

1.) We do not 'just take sides' on international stage, like much of Europe follows suit wherever US leads. Like, for example, you pointed out India abstaining from voting on Syrian resolution. Now you put this in very simple terms and state we have gone against your interests. But rather, that was an application of a consistent foreign policy, which primarily aims at not undermining any other nation's sovereignty, something which is US' forte.

As for Ukraine, our external affairs ministry has resisted to align with the Russians, and it is only our National Security Adviser who has called for a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the crisis, in the way, recognizing 'legitimate Russian interests'. I do not see anything wrong here. If there's any duplicity to be seen here, it is rather the US'. Leading the global war on terror, irrespective of the collateral damage it has caused, all in the name of 'national security'. And when Russia does the same for protecting Russians, US led NATO countries escalate this into a crisis.

2.) Our economic influence, at present, may not be at par with that of Japan or such nations, but we do have the potential to not only expand, but also surpass these nations, which is what counts at the end of the day. We're still a developing nation, with a lot of internal issues to deal with first.

3.) You guys having a smart foreign policy? Now that's a first. The only policy that I have seen you guys following is that of the US'.

4.) And finally, why do we need to take sides in the first place? A more pragmatic way would be to resolve our issues with China bilaterally, and this is what we expect from the new government. Aligning with US is only going to result in an unstable neighborhood, and we are not willing to commit the same blunders as some of our political leadership has committed in the past. We want good relations with our neighbors (you can count out Pakistan, it is just natural), but particularly good relations with China.

Thanks for your response bro. I appreciate your politeness/respectfulness in your reply unlike some people here who resort to personal attacks/name calling when they dont have a constructive/credible response to counter one argument.
Well regarding what you said, i agree India has been trying to be neutral as much as it can when it comes to critical issues affecting its long time patron Russia towards the west. But abstening from the syria resolution(though it isn't a permanent memeber and didnt really carry any weight) and calling 'Russia legitimate interest' in regard to Ukraine was a way of siding with Russia without antagonizing/alarming the west too much. Thats why i said our governments are not fools/stupid, they do know India is still kind of more inclined to support Russia over the U.S/West.
So why do you want our support when you have issues with China? Thats why i said India can't expect to eat its cake and have it. It will have to make crucial decisions that will be critical for its future direction as a country in the coming decade. Whether the U.S is hegemonistic or not is not the question, who do you think will support you in case of crisis with China? Russia has a more crucial relationship with China than with India, this is a fact, so Russia won't ever side with you against China. They both have more common global interests/issues against the west. Russia is just partner with India because you provide them with a lucrative market/cash to dump their weapons which is still inferior to that the west/U.S can offer you. But with China they have not just an even larger market/cash but most importantly they share similar world views and have a clear policy and view of their country position in the world(which India still currently lacks/is yet to find).
So you will have to make choices as times go by, your so called 'non aligned' foreign policy doesn't have a place in this century and it will be more and more untenable as times goes by. So you will either have to side with the U.S/west or try and be more reasonable and solve your border issues with China and be partners/or even allies. In the coming decade you will find out that you will have to choose between one of the two, else you will be look at with caution/suspicion by both the west/U.S and Russia/China.
And i never said we have a smart/independent foreign policy, i know our government is all but a junior partner of the U.S/follows the U.S, but thats how the world works now, after all you can't expect us to be equal partners with the U.S since the U.S is just too big and powerful for us to be equals(even china being the second most powerful country in the world is still not accepted by the U.S as an equal though it's respected as a big world power ), but as far as it serves our interests to be allied with the U.S i don't see whats wrong with that. Same with Japan,Canada, Australia, south Korea, New zealand etc.
Also you say the U.S duplicity can be seen in : Leading the global war on terror, irrespective of the collateral damage it has caused, all in the name of 'national security'. And when Russia does the same for protecting Russians, US led NATO countries escalate this into a crisis. Well on this point you might be right. So if thats the case, India shouldnt see anything wrong in China asserting her influence/protecting chinese interests in Asia and SCS, so China should interevene where her inetrests are threatened as well. So in such a case i hope India will support 'legitimate Chinese Interests' in Vietnam and other Asian countries..
So since India sees the U.S as a troublesome country who can't be trusted, itshould stop asking for U.S/western support. Then we wouldnt be having this discussion. After all, as far as you still need outside support(be it U.S or Russia) against another country(china) that means you are quite weak and vulnerable and cant handle China by yourself. Afterall i don't see China asking for foreign support against India or any asian country. After all, having traveled to several Asian countries, i will say Asians will still prefer to having a benevolent west/U.S as a superpower than an Asian country like China. Because they know despite our flaws we are still more benign and they still see the west as an example of what they want to be in terms of living standard and openess towards other countries/foreigners.

In this regard, that's why im saying it will be better for India to side with the U.S until its strong enough/powerful to stand on her against China. The alternative is it can stop crying about China and solve its problem with China bilateraly and live happily ever after with its neighbours.........wishful thinking.

 

[mike2000]

As per wiki Indo-Russian trade (India–Russia relations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) stands at $11.04 bn (this includes all sectors; power, defense, industry..) which will still be significantly less than the single gas deal between China and Russia ~$13bn a year (400bn for 30 yrs; as signed contract).

This is where I believe things get interesting. Now that the deal is signed Russians will drive a hard bargain in future and current deals with India knowing very well that India. Reason being India doesn’t have any other all-weather friend who can fulfill her defense requirements and Russian leaning towards China makes the Indian diplomatic establishment jittery. Also with all the deals lost in recent times to other countries esp western and European, it may want to tighten the screws a bit. But this is just a theory, for all you know money or not Russia may always be our true friend.

Assuming the worst what are our options in regards to
1. Country(s) : Who can we engage with to neutralize the threat and still fulfill our defense needs
2. Weapons and Platforms : Should we buy / develop on own to sustain or maintain a minimum deterrent
3. Bait : Is there any deal equivalent to what China signed that we could offer to Russia to level the playing field.

As always play nice….

PS:
In this modern world there is never going to be a full blown war. It just to see who supports you and who’s got your back in the event of a standoff (ex: Kargil)

-NPM

I agree with all your points except 3 . You simply cant match China with cash, their forex reserve alone is twice your GDP. and moreover you cant be making similar deals when you don't share a border with Russia/don't really need it. You just can't spend such a huge sum of money just because you want to match China or show your ego. You will go bankrupt if you try to match them cash for cash. Best solution is to forget Russia and ally with the U.S (but still maintain your trade with Russia). long term it will be beneficial to India, since Russia is a declinig power and India and other countries will soon even overtake Russia in the coming years/decades. Afterall you are a democratic country. Leave authoritarian Russia and China to share their hatred/challenge they have towards the west/U.S..
your last point is what i have been saying to your indian brothers, but they still seem to think they can be with Russia and the West/U.S at the same time. Laughable.